Run up towards The 2019 Parliamentary elections

A week, they say, is a long time in politics. Journalists - who were gushing at the unstoppable Modi-Shah juggernaut, post the BJP govt. formation in the North Eastern states of Tripura, Nagaland & Meghalaya – are now convinced of BJP’s vincibility, in 2019 – post the SP win in the UP by elections – with BSP support -  & the exit of the TDP from the NDA on the issue of denial of “special category status”.  Lack of rigour in analysis & swinging like trapeze artists & changing positions with each event does the profession no good.

Let us step back & analyse the current political landscape

(1)The BJP that won 282 seats in 2014, now has its nos. reduced to 276, post losing 6 of the 10 seats - it held earlier - that went to the by polls later- Ratlam (MP to INC in 2015), Gurdaspur (Punjab to INC in 2017), Alwar & Ajmer (Raj to INC in 2018), Phulpur & Gorakhpur (UP to SP in 2018) indicating the onset of anti-incumbency.

Takeaway: The GOP, the INC, has its footprint sequentially reduced from the days of Indira Gandhi & is now shrunk to fighting the BJP directly in 14 of the 29 states only: Western India(Gujarat), Central India(MP & Chhattisgarh), North Western India(Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan), Northern India(Uttarakhand & HP) & South (Karnataka, Telangana) & North East (Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh)while it is still a formidable force along with allies in 4 states: North(J&K with the NC), West(Maharashtra with the NCP; Goa), South (Kerala as UDF). The regional parties dominate the remaining landscape - largely in the South & East - prompting TMC’s Derek-o-Brein to comment that the BJP should be stopped by the regional parties in their areas of dominance while the INC does in its backyard, to propel India back into a liberal, inclusive coalition era.

 (2)BJP  ruled 6 states in 2014 – Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, Goa, & Punjab (in alliance with SAD; between 2014 to 2019, it lost Punjab but retained Gujarat in a cliff-hanger & Goa vide a coalition despite the verdict being anti-BJP.  It added 14 new states – HP, Haryana, Uttarakhand, UP, Jharkhand, Assam & runs govt. coalition governments in  Maharashtra(with Shiv Sena), J&K (with PDP), Bihar(with JDU), Tripura(with IPFT), Meghalaya(NPP), Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Nagaland riding as much on Amit Shah's poll strategy as much as on anti-incumbency against existing state governments.

Takeaway: The BJP gained massively in 2014 & beyond due to anti –incumbency against the INC & Regional parties; going forward, ruling as it does 19 of the 29 states, would it too not be at the receiving end of the same trend in both in the impending Parliamentary & Assembly elections?

(3)The State BJP CMs of the newly acquired states are generally seen as lacking in administrative acumen & might not be in a position to regain power the next time. The anti- incumbency vectors are corruption, lack of employment opportunities, & price rise. The Modi govt. which retained the sheen of being corruption free is now weighed down by the patina of the corruption in the Rafale deal, Nirav Modi's PNB scam, Jay Amit Shah’s sudden riches etc.; likewise, the govt. has not been able to show an appreciable increase in employment opportunities & the PMs allusion to “Pakoda sellers” as new jobs has ruffled feathers. Inflation was been kept in check vide an unexpected bonanza of an oil price drop & a public policy decision to go for a minor rise in MSP; however, the latter decision has led to rural angst & rise in farmer suicides; the farmer march in Maharashtra is a consequence of the same malady.  The usual suspects are thus now rising in unison.

Takeaway: There are issues to corner the Modi govt. if the opposition can weave the right narrative taking advantage of the emerging situation. With Nitish co-opted, Chidambaram entangled in legal mess & Rahul suffering from the “pappu jibes” & Mamata & Mayawati unable to acquire the leadership of the opposition mantle it will a case of “distributed leadership” fighting the BJP’s electoral machine which in a way is good for the opposition since a direct fight between an opposition leader & Modi would make the contest “Presidential” – a situation NaMo shall savour.

(4)While the TDP had existed the coalition & initiated a no confidence motion against the govt. the BJP could win this round but is precariously placed since Uddhav Thackeray of the  Shiv Sena has already announced that they would contest the 2019 elections without the BJP, Naresh Gujral of the SAD has opined that the single party rule is off in 2019 & the BJP should therefore consult its allies more while the JD(U) in Bihar is sulking for want of special category status & more representation at the centre.

Takeaway: The NDA is in a mess & in a bid to dominate from the "Panchayat to Parliament" the BJP is in no mood to apply the balm.

Against this background we could reasonably make the following predictions for the next parliamentary elections

(a)The BJP would suffer from anti-incumbency & is unlikely to repeat its 2014 performance:  Gujarat (26/26), Rajasthan (25/25), Haryana (7/10), Madhya Pradesh (27/29), Chhattisgarh (10/11), Maharashtra (23/48); it would lose about 50 seats in these states. A neck & neck fight between the INC & the BJP is thus predicted in 2019 with each party winning about 140 seats.

(b)In UP, a SP-BSP-INC combination with a vote share close to 50% could potentially sweep the polls; however since arithmetic might not translate into chemistry, the coalition is predicted to win 60 seats, unless a Ram Janmabhoomi agitation, perhaps, post an adverse judgement, in Oct 2018, in the Supreme Court, is likely to create polarization catapulting the BJP to about 55 seats – similar to the no. it earned in the 1990’s. That would push the BJP to about 175 seats - still about 100 seats short of a majority.

(c)Despite leaders like KCR wanting to lead the third front, it appears more a strategy to sweep polls in their home state i.e. do what Modi did in Gujarat, or Jaya in TN or Mamata in WB, in 2014 – thereby becoming a  kingmaker rather than a king, in 2019.

(d)Allies view the BJP leadership as arrogant, non-consulting & intent on playing a zero sum game; this makes acquiring new friends / allies pre or post poll difficult for the BJP.

Conclusion

With Ram Janmabhoomi agitation/building a temple likely to spur “polarization” & a skirmish in the Pak border or Indian intervention in Maldives to ratchet up “nationalism” a possibility, it is feasible for the BJP to emerge as the single largest party but due to lack of friends/allies, it would be forced to cede power to the INC to form the govt. with the support of the regional parties.

Tackling China: A New Approach to Foreign Policy

Foreign Secretary, Vijay Gokhale’s note to the Cabinet Ministry to issue an directive to Govt. servants not to participate in the events, starting April 1st, planned to commemorate the 60^th anniversary of the Dalai Lama’s exile from Tibet to India is, perhaps, to smoothen Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Qingdao, in June this year to attend the Shanghai Co-operation Organization (SCO) meeting; or was it is a quid pro quo to muster Chinese withdrawal of opposition to Pak being put on the “Grey list” by the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) on terror financing? Prompting the Dalai Lama to visit Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh, or the Tibetans to protest when wanting to needle the Chinese & swinging the other way as in this case, though viewed as a legitimate action under foreign policy is in bad moral taste & against the host – guest relationship defined in our country by “Atithi Devo Bhava”.

I have long argued that despite our ambition to see ourselves as China’s peer, the dichotomy in economic sizes is substantial with China boasting of 5 times our GDP (Gross Domestic Product) & about 3.5 times our military budget (India$51 billion vs. China’s $175 billion). But since economic sizes of the two countries were similar till about 1980 & per capita incomes till 1991, our ambition is not misplaced since the power differential would be substantially reduced in a 25 year timeframe if the elephant grows at least 1.5 times the dragon. Till such time, we need to play with caution even while asserting where necessary to protect our core interests for China is using coercive diplomatic, economic & military pressures to browbeat nations to gain territory & market access.

Managing China: Strategies

The Quad (US-India-Australia-Japan) strengthened by the addition of like-minded countries in the ASEAN like Vietnam could logically serve to deter China from pursuing a “creeping acquisition” of territory strategy; however, pertinent to note that during the Doklam standoff the US did not come out opening in India’s support; only Japan did & in a non-Shinzo Abe scenario we cannot expect such emphatic support from the Nippon nation too. While China blisters at such encirclement, our attempts at strengthening the alliance should be pursued, especially since China has made deep inroads into SAARC nations & beyond.

Ambassador, KC Singh, however, argues that India is a “swing” power in a post unipolar world scenario where the sole superpower – the US - is on a decline & displaying withdrawal symptoms under Trump & a revisionist power – China – is not only on the rise but displaying greater risk appetite to shift the world epicentre to Asia; he proposes that India with the 3^rd largest military & economic power (in PPP terms) should maintain a balance to protect our interests even as others have proposed “Strategic Autonomy”.  In areas like climate change, free trade etc. India sees convergence with China while in areas like freedom of navigation in South/East China sea & beyond, propagation of democratic values etc. our interests conflate with those of the US.

Suhasini Haider, vide an article in the Hindu, has argued that we could delineate Chinese actions/ strategies under 3 heads: helpful to India; neither helpful nor inimical to India’s interests: & inimical to India. She advises co-operation in the first, co-existence in the second & assertion/alternate offer if need be along with the Quad in the third. Salvatore Babones, writing in Forbes asserts that India’s “Act East” needs China while the latter’s “Go West” needs India since China has excess capacity in construction & infrastructure industries & needs markets while India has the market but lacks infrastructure. He reasons that Indian economy at $2.5 trillion is roughly the size of ASEAN & positively dwarfs the economies of Central Asian Republics - where China is trying to gain leeway.  India thus can absorb a meaningful proportion of China’s excess capacity. Even while Manipur is closer to Chinese Chengdu rather than Thai Bangkok, India is keen to connect the two in a bid to seek additional manufacturing investments in the North East from the ASEAN which is unlikely to fructify; likewise, Chinese interest in rebuilding the Stilwell road that links Assam to China is stonewalled due to political opposition from India. He laments that the only country that has the capital & technology to help India’s North East is the last country India wants to turn too. Perhaps, opposition is a consequence of Indian security considerations predicated by the unresolved border dispute; would India think differently if the border issue is resolved favourably – the McMahon line becomes the de-jure border?

Shifting sights to the country’s North West, India has opposed the CPEC (China – Pak Economic Corridor) – part of President Xi’s pet BRI (Belt & Road Initiative) – because of sovereignty concerns since it passes through Gilgit-Baltistan – a part of undivided J&K - on which India has an unresolved bilateral dispute with Pak. Ceding of the Shaksgam valley by Pak to China, in 1963, effectively makes the J&K dispute a tripartite one & the Karakoram highway was subsequently constructed. China skilfully circumvented India’s sovereignty objections then by introducing a clause that promised to respect sovereignty of the territory as & when it was finally resolved, perhaps, knowing fully well that it will take decades; 50 years hence, Gilgit Baltistan & POK remain part of Pak. When India is finding it difficult managing the aspirations of the people in the Kashmir valley alone, would she not find it difficult managing additional territory & people even if Pak hands over the disputed territories to India? Can the tripartite problem be resolved by an agreement to convert the LOC with Pak as the de facto border & recognition of India claims over the Siachen heights in lieu of withdrawal of Indian sovereignty claims - over Gilgit- Baltistan & POK - & support to CPEC under a new nom-de-plume by linking it to the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial corridor to gain access to Central Asia? This deal though pragmatic could pique of our Western allies since it is a reversal of their strategy of denying the communists' access to the Arabian Sea since imperial times; can India stop  China from pushing through with the CPEC project & the proposed corridor linking Kyauk Pyu port in Myanmar with China, gaining access to both the Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal?  

Connecting CPEC to the Delhi Mumbai industrial corridor would give us access to Central Asia without expending energy & money on the Iranian port of Chabahar & an alternate route via Afghanistan to central Asia.  Iran is a tough negotiator & has given India access to the port for 18 months only. India, unable to fund its own infra requirements cannot spend adequately on the Iran-Af-Central Asia linkage or the North- South Corridor to provide access to Eurasia vide the Caspian sea; even if she did, it would only increase Iran’s geostrategic importance & not India’s. Would taking advantage of China’s investments not be a better strategy rather than becoming captive to Iran’s belligerence or  blackmail?

In 1959-60, The Chinese Premier, Zhou-en-Lai proposed an India concession on the Western sector at Aksai Chin in lieu of Chinese concession in the eastern sector of Tawang to settle the border issue which effectively meant recognition of  the McMahon line, of 1914, & the McCartney-McDonald line, of 1899, which PM Nehru, unfortunately, rejected & followed through with the ill thought through “Forward post policy” which led to the Indo-China war, of 1962, post which China occupies the entire Aksai chin, much beyond the McCartney-McDonald line. Can India & China agree on the McMahon & McCartney-McDonald lines in lieu of India allowing Chinese access beyond the BMIC (Bangladesh-Myanmar-India-China) corridor to the NBBMIC (Nepal-Bhutan-Bangladesh-Myanmar-India-China) corridor & greater market access, contingent on reducing the trade deficit?

Conclusion

It might be prudent to take advantage of aligning with China on climate change, handling terror, alternative world financial architecture & participating in parts of the BRI (Belt & Road Initiative) wherever we see an advantage & put our foot down where we see our interests challenged by offering an alternative model. Issuing demarches to SAARC nations not to cross the Red line of accessing Chinese investments, on what we perceive as dual use projects, that challenge our security interests is not working with even nations like Maldives revolting; offering them a better financial package & economic model – perhaps along with our other Quad allies - is a better alternative. Despite the brave averments of our Army Chief is India ready for “a two & a half front war”? Even if "yes", a war is regressive as much as it is unlikely. Prudent for India to borrow a line from the former Chinese strongman, Deng Xiaoping: “Hide our capabilities & bide our time”.

What Is More Important: Employee Experience or Customer Experience

Organizations are faced with an eternal dilemma:

(1)What is more important – Customer experience or Employee experience?

(2)Is there a cause- effect relationship between the two; will one – better employee experience – lead to the other – better customer experience? Is Vineet Nayyar the former head honcho of HCL right when he says 'Employees First, Customers Second"? or

(3)Should both be pursued simultaneously?

Experience shows that happier employees make an extra effort to boost customer experience; employees of Taj Mumbai risking their lives, in 2008 - when attacked by Kasab & gang - for the sake of their embattled patrons has become an international case study. Generally, when an employee loves his organization he would be keen to make his customers too have similar feelings; the trick therefore, is to make an employee fall in love with the organization vide recognition & leave him with a lasting impression that his company will take care of him & if possible his family too in case of any unexpected eventuality. The Japanese mastery of the art of lifetime employment & loyalty - without dishing out huge compensations like the Americans - is brought out in minutiae by Akio Morita in “Made in Japan”.

Unfortunately, our US driven business school MBA programs tutor us on "Customer First" & train us to see employees as "cost" elements alone, leading to the current mess. During a downturn managements sack employees to save costs even while there are other cost elements that are in greater need for pruning. Many a times despite a flawed strategy executed by top management being the prime reason for the mess, they successfully retain their positions even while the frontline is served with pink slips. Paradoxically, the top management in US banks during the 2008 financial crisis retained their position & bonuses while others down the ranks got sacked enhancing employee angst. Would it not be better to disclose the firm’s position to the employees – the “Internal customers” - & call for a proportionate cut in the salaries of all personnel to achieve “cost” aims rather than use the knife on select employees?

Employee loyalty to organizations, today, is fickle; employees jump ship with abandon when the going is right & get sacked with impunity when the penny drops. If companies carry their employees during a business downturn after appraising them, will it not enhance employee loyalty? Likewise, is it not prudish on the part of employees to shift to competition, even without serving their notice period in full, when offered higher compensation but complain, gherao management – like the Tiny Owl food delivery start up case -or seek govt. intervention – like the IT employees case - when sacked? Loyalty begets loyalty, it is prudent, therefore, that commitment gets enhanced on both sides.

 

Loyalty to the organization can be further enhanced if the employee’s family loves the organization. How to achieve that in an era where better halves complain of no “work life” balance ruining their family lives’ is a ponderable question. Family get togethers’ inculcate a feeling of shared solidarity, eve’s organizations – like in HUL - helping a new recruit’s family/transferred family settle down is helpful in fostering goodwill. Organizations stepping in to take care of health & education needs of the family impart greater bonding.

There is a persisting myth that employees leave bosses & not organizations; it is not necessarily completely true. If the appraisal process is biased, & employee not treated without empathy by the immediate superior, the boss is definitely to blame; but if organization culture promotes ruthlessness & politicking then blaming the boss alone is wrong. The "Bell curve" & force fit driven as part of organization strategy & normalization thereof has annoyed many. IBM, Accenture & TCS have moved away from the “Bell curve” system & replaced it with a process of continuous feedback – rather than an annual appraisal - & employees are now appraised on individual performance; perhaps, real time feedback is the way forward which clarifies expectations - unlike an annual shocker of a process currently underway – ensuring a win–win for both sides. The bottom 10% shall either quit early or have sufficient time to improve making the process of separation – if inevitable - sans heartache; the employees leaving the organization should be made to depart with a feeling that the organization was not unjust in its dealings.  Thus the onus is on top management to build the appropriate culture & prod all "bosses" to become its willing ambassadors. Wonderful customer experience is then only waiting to happen.

Year 2017: 10 Events that shall either Shake or Shape the World

Listing 10 events of 2017 that shall have a long term impact on World affairs

Trump Rise & the Beginning of the end of the uni-polar world: Donald Trump took oath of office as the 45^th POTUS, on 20^th Jan 2017, & by appointing his son-in law, Jared Kushner, as his senior advisor, two days later & daughter Ivanka, as advisor, on Mar 29^th, indicated where his heart lay & by visiting Riyadh in May & East Asia in Nov, his priorities.  The poetic campaign rhetoric extended seamlessly into twitter governance later, accelerating US isolation; his contentious phone call to ally, Australian PM, Malcolm Turnbull on refugees being the first of a series of glorious misfires.

US withdrew from the Paris Climate change agreement, UNESCO & Global compact on migration & has threatened the UN to cut funding. He believes that climate change is helpful for the US despite the US National Intelligence Council 2008 report marking Canada & Russia as the real winners. “Withdrawal” from the Iran & Cuba deals closed the wonderful opening - of greater market access & diplomatic leverage - provided by his predecessor Obama. Attempt to renegotiate NAFTA (North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement) & building the wall across the Mexican border has created uneasy neighbours & withdrawal from the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership), uneasy allies.  

Closer home, he has upended many of the social & racial relation advancements achieved over the last few decades; his assertion that "both" sides were to blame post the Charlottesville incident, overturning Obama care & the Obama directive on transgender rights to use toilets & banning transgendered people from military are some of those regressive moves. This will lead to an internally divided America, at war with itself, & a country in internal turmoil cannot provide world leadership.

Many of his nominees could not secure Senate confirmations & those who did have emerged as poor choices; open positions in his admin abound & those in office are experiencing short tenures, impeding long long term policy planning; the administration is thus tactical, firefighting one crisis & then another.

Meanwhile, the legal noose on Russian interference in the US Presidential elections - where Trump won in the electoral college, but lost by over 3 million votes - is tightening. Sanctions on Russia were hence mandated by the US Congress & the consequent reprisal by the latter of ordaining reduced US diplomatic presence makes a US – Russia détente unlikely; had it happened, the rise of China could have been more effectively challenged. 

Trump's impetuosity & lack of diplomatic acumen  were on display while handling the North Korean Missile & nuclear crisis. His announcement on US embassy shift to Jerusalem - a campaign promise that shall provide him with evangelical & Jewish support - however, has the potential to pitch the entire Middle East into turmoil. By the time he saves himself from impeachment & completes a term in office, moving from one deal to another, losing sight of long term strategic imperatives, he would have done much damage, announcing the beginning of the end of the US dominance of world affairs to worthy challengers - China & Russia.

President Xi gets second term & like Mao could rule in perpetuity: President,Xi Jinping, secured his 2^nd 5 year term, in Oct 2017, & had his name & ideology - "socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era" added to the constitution giving it a stature equivalent to “Mao Zedong Thought” & “Deng Xiaoping theory”. Chinese leaders post Deng – Jiang Zemin & Hu Jintao - governed for a decade & passed on the reins to their successors while Xi appears to have no such plans. CPC (Chinese Communist Party) standing committee has an informal retirement age of 68 & generally in the 2^nd term of the President, successors – aged around 50 - are identified to ensure 5 years of grooming & subsequently 10 year tenures. By packing the 7 member Politburo with people aged above 60, Xi has revealed his intentions.  He would rule in perpetuity- most likely in the saddle like Mao or like Deng hold key positions till death - pushing his pet BRI (Belt & Road Initiative) which is another name for colonization under the guise of infra development.

China first gained dominance in the East China Sea – checkmating Japan - & followed it by converting reefs into artificial islands in the South China Sea – checkmating the ASEAN countries; CPEC (China Pak Economic corridor) is an effort to gain entry into the Indian Ocean – nullifying the Malacca Straits choke point; their “string of pearls"  – Pak, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & Myanmar - are an India encirclement strategy to which they are now keen to add Nepal & Maldives.  With dominance in Asia complete, China has turned its attention to Africa – by launching its military base at Djibouti; incidentally, China is Africa’s largest trading partner.

China might not immediately match the 16 US military bases abroad, but Xi, like his friend Putin, will surely challenge the uni-polar world order.

Russia’s ISIS Victory – Putin revives Cold war ambitions: President Putin has won the war against ISIS in Syria & has negotiated with a beleaguered Bashar – al – Assad regime a 49 year lease of the port of Tartus, in the Mediterranean Sea, in a bid to revive a cold war naval base to checkmate Israel & NATO forces. Expect nuclear submarines & nuclear powered aircraft carriers on the prowl here soon since Russia is granted air & naval defence rights while Syrian forces handle land defence.

Russia could reopen the Soviet era military bases in Vietnam & Cuba & is interested in gaining  leeway across Nicaragua & Venezuela to challenge the US from close quarters. By bailing out Venezuela, suffering from an economic crisis – post the oil price drop, lack of peace & stagflation thereof – Putin has made a beginning.

By bringing Turkey & Iran together, at Sochi, in Nov, to solve the Syrian crisis, he has displayed ambition; post Saudi Arabia's (SA) King Salman’s visit to Russia a few months earlier, SA too seems to be open towards a wider Russian role in conflict resolution.  Russia though is constrained by its economic woes to aid the post war reconstruction efforts in Syria.

With such geo-political achievements under his belt, Putin has announced his candidature for the 2018 Presidential elections sending a signal, that like Xi, he too plans to rule in perpetuity.

Presidents fall from grace: While some heads of govt. are scaling new heights, others were dumped unceremoniously. The list includes Robert Mugabe- President of Zimbabwe for 37 years – suffering a coup launched by Army Chief Chiwenga & forced to cede power to Mnangagwa who was ousted as VP & expelled from the party earlier, by Mugabe, perhaps, to make his wife Grace his successor; Grace is likened to Mao’s wife Jiang & her supporters remind one of the “Gang of four” saga in China.

In South Africa, President Jacob Zuma's association with the Guptas’ & corruption thereof has smeared controversy on his rather colourful reputation & his legal troubles accentuated by an adverse court verdict; he has supported ex - wife Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma for Party (ANC) leadership & could face Mugabe’s fate. When Presidents act like monarchs in apparently democratic frameworks, & prop up families too, guillotine could be round the corner.

South Korea’s first female President, Park Geun hye,  was impeached in March on bribery charges, Brazilian prosecutors filed corruption charges against President Michel Temer - who took power in 2016 after his predecessor Dilma Rousseff was impeached - while the Pak courts found  Nawaz Sharif – facing flak due to the Panama papers scam – guilty & forced him out of office in July.

Ignominy thus followed many heads of govt.; they should learn to quit office such that people ask “why” & not “why not?”

Abe Returns; Japanese pacifist Constitution could be rewritten: Shinzo Abe is another personality striding like a colossus on the world stage winning a two third majority for his party LDF; he could thus potentially get a 3^rd 3 year term as leader of his party to lead the govt. as PM for Japan – an unprecedented feat. He shall pursue “Abenomics” – continued fiscal stimulus - & try to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution or add a clause in the constitution recognizing the legality of Japanese armed forces either of which shall help in tackling a belligerent China.

China is the world’s 2nd largest economy – poised to overtake the leader, the US, in 2032 - & is followed by Japan at no. 3; India shall cross France & Britain to take the no. 5 position in 2018 cementing the dictum that the 21^st century shall see the epicentre of the world shift decisively to Asia.  Xi would like the epicentre to be in the Middle Kingdom while others would like to create a multi – polar world order. The rise of the Quad – US, Japan, India & Australia – is an attempt to checkmate a belligerent China & many tormented ASEAN countries – like Vietnam – could join/engage with the grouping going forward.

Doklam Stare – Accentuation of the Indo-Chinese Fault Lines: Indian forces were mired in a standoff with the Chinese forces, for opposing the Chinese road construction activity in the India - Bhutan – China tri junction in June 2017; the standoff lasting about 72 days post which diplomacy arranged for disengagement, Japan, incidentally, was the only country to publicly approve of the Indian action.  In the interim, skirmishes were reported between the forces at the Pangong lake in Ladakh & brawls in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, indicative of potential areas of conflict in the days to come. Despite the agreement on withdrawal of forces, robust Chinese presence at Doklam, a departure from their regular practice of withdrawal during winter is foreboding. The mistrust between the Asian giants is likely to persist with important spill over effects into the coming years.

Erdogan wins Referendum; Shall Transform Secular Turkey into Islamic Republic: Turkish President Erdogan won a referendum this year that shall increase the powers of his office exponentially aiding his transformation of the country from a secular nation to an Islamic republic – a regression from the vision of Kemal Ataturk. He fancies himself as a new caliph of perhaps, the erstwhile Ottoman Empire.

GCC countries – SA, UAE, and Bahrain – in June imposed sanctions on fellow GCC country – Qatar – accusing it of terrorism & cozy ties with Iran & listed a set of demands that included shutting down the Al Jazeera channel; on Qatar’s request Turkey increased military presence in Doha & plans to increase the strength to about 3000 soldiers giving Erdogan increased heft.  

Saudi – Israel Romance: The Middle East history has been witness to a saga of conflicts for supremacy between the Arabs, Turks, Persians & Kurds; the Sykes – Picot agreement, which divided the territories among Britain & France post World War I – denied Kurds a country & the hot-potch of ethnicities in each country was meant to keep fault lines alive under the “divide & rule” policy.

Meanwhile, Prince Salman, of SA, has imprisoned his cousins & other officials ostensibly on charges of corruption & consolidated his power on the kingdom & is poised to take over the throne in 2018; his war in Yemen –of supporting the Sunni ruler – against the Shia Houthi rebels is unravelling.  PM Saad al-Hariri of Lebanon resigned while in SA – perhaps prompted by Salman – accusing Iran of terrorism to force the exit of his Shia alliance partner in govt. – Iran supported Hezbollah - thus creating vast instability in the Middle East. The complex ethnic mix in Lebanon has secured peace with the agreement that the president must be a Maronite Catholic, the prime minister a Sunni and the speaker of parliament a Shia; any attempts to change the balance shall provoke instability.

Iran is sitting pretty, having a Shia govt. in Iraq & Syria & is gaining geo-political leverage, without much expenditure unlike SA; this has hence brought together the most unlikely of allies – Israel & SA – both keen on rolling back Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The interplay among Abrahamic religions – Judaism, Christianity & Islam – ethnicities – Arabs, Kurds, Turks & Persians - & sects – Sunnis & Shias – has the potential to conflate the Middle – East powder keg any time. Jared Kusner, incidentally, was Trump’s unofficial representative to the Middle East aiding the process.

Rise of the Right Wing in Europe: Attempts at strengthening of the European Union, has led to the loss of national identity, fuelling Euro scepticism, & labour mobility has induced loss of jobs for locals thereby instigating anti- immigration sentiments. The Syrian war & ISIS attacks have led to the refugee & terror crisis, upping Islamophobia & xenophobia.  While these forces were temporarily halted by Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French Presidential Elections, this year, the growing strength of the right wing parties in the European Parliament & in countries like Germany, Netherlands etc. is indicative of the persistence of a trend that is a cause of concern.

Working towards establishing stability in the Middle East to end the refugee inflow, de-ghettoization of Muslim communities in Europe & regulating Islamic seminaries/mosques to ensure a moderate Islamic discourse shall be the key. However, with ISIS fighters sneaking back to their home countries, into Europe, post their defeat in Syria & the increased likelihood of lone wolf attacks, the right wing leaders would have sufficient meat to persist with their deadly discourse. Clearly, the Eurasian land mass is witnessing accentuation of fault lines which could have holocaustic consequences.

Strength to women emancipation efforts: Millions of women rallied around the MeToo Hashtag in the wake of systemic abuses by Media Moghul Harvey Weinstein & scalps claimed include the who's who of politics like - George Bush Sr. – Media – like Bill o’Reilly, Matt Lauer & Charlie Rose & films – Kevin Spacey. Greater revelations on sexual harassment should serve as an effective deterrent.

Governments & corporates too stepped in to aid the process of woman emancipation: France banned too thin fashion models & made labelling of digitally enhanced photos mandatory; MTV became the 1^st major awards show to adopt gender neutral categories;  Israeli woman won a landmark sexism case against airline, El Al, after asked to change seat away from man; Saudi Arabia allowed women to dive.; Nepal Parliament banned menstruation huts;  Chile’s constitutional court approved a bill to ease total abortion ban;  & the Indian Supreme Court outlawed instant triple talaq.

Conclusion

Hope the positivity of the women emancipation efforts extend into 2018 & create a better more egalitarian world where lone wolf attacks of ISIS are history & peace reigns supreme. Happy New Year 2018.

Year 2017: The 12 Milestones that Shaped India

Post the shock of the Trump victory in the US & demonetization (DeMo) closer home, India woke up to the year 2017 pregnant with possibilities & the year did not disappoint. The BJP election juggernaut - led by General Modi & his Squire, Amit Shah – rolled into new territories & end 2017, rule 19 states in India – 1 more than Indira Gandhi at the peak of her career. However, the onset of memes on Modi – including the one by Shyam Rangila on Star Plus – corruption charges against Jay Amit Shah by “The Wire” & the INC’s performance in Gujarat have brought back the spring in the opposition steps; the winds of change seem to have started, gently for sure.

The 12 milestones of the year

ISRO creates world record: Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) launched 104 satellites from a single rocket – PSLV – in Feb, beating the record set, earlier, by Russia with 37 satellites. While PSLV can carry a payload less than 2000 Kg, the next gen GSLV can carry heavier satellites up to 5000Kg; Space X, Russia & EU have satellites with a carrying capacity between 9000 – 23000Kg.  Despite having the lowest cost of launch, India is constrained by the PSLV’s carrying capacity. Of the overall space market of $323 billion India’s Antrix Corp earns $66 million. India should attempt to get at least a 1/3^rd share of this lucrative market in a 5 year timeframe.

Union Budget Preponed; Railway Budget is History: India followed the colonial practice of presenting the Indian budget at 5PM, on the last working day of Feb, to coincide with the Budget presentation in British parliament at 1130 am GMT; this practice was discontinued, in 2001, by Finance Minister, Yashwant Sinha & in 2017, Arun Jaitley advanced presentation to the first working day of Feb. 

Usually, in the first phase of the Budget session, a “Vote on account” is obtained from Parliament to draw funds from the Consolidated Fund of India from 1^st April; full & final budget is passed with amendments in the second phase sometime in May. Outlays are available end first quarter & the 2^nd quarter is spent in finalizing deals & tenders in consonance with processes that would not play foul with the auditors of the CAG & the  CVC thereby forcing back-loaded spending in the last 2 quarters of the financial year; advancement of dates is a welcome attempt at frontloading spends. 

Advancing budget presentation further to January could help avoid passing a “Vote on Account”. NITI Aayog, in a repeat of the averments of LK Jha committee, of 1984, has recommended financial year cycle change from the current Apr-Mar cycle to 1^st Jan - 31^st Dec cycle, in line with the prevalent practice in most countries in the world, A new committee had been constituted by the govt., under former Chief Economic Advisor, Shankar Acharya, to examine the feasibility & desirability of these recommendations.

Likewise, the Railway budget, in existence, since 1924, was subsumed into the Union budget this year. Railway Ministry was generally an allies' preserve, during the coalition years, leading to sub-optimal performance & this seems to be an attempt by the govt. to steer clear of the usual practice of making annual popular announcements without financial due diligence & the consequent deplorable financial performance there-off. Hope this revives the depleting monolith of the organization.

BJP victory in UP: It is an open secret that the road to Delhi passes via Lucknow; the BJP got 282 seats, in the Lok Sabha ,in 2014, courtesy the 71 bagged in UP – the most populous state, in India, with a population of over 200 million, equal to Brazil. The BJP cemented its position by winning 312 seats in the 404 member assembly in Mar 2017 & mading Yogi Adityanath – the Hindu Hriday Mascot - the CM, revealed their game plan for 2019. The BJP’s asserted that the UP victory was an endorsement of DeMo; by Sept, though, the RBI announced that 99% of the 500 & 100 rupee DeMo notes have been returned to the financial system nullifying any possibilities of liquidating the substantial difference to be passed on as a special dividend to the govt.

For details on DeMo read http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2017/11/demonetization-in-india-first.html

5 states went to the polls in Mar with BJP winning emphatically in UP & Uttarakhand & Congress doing the honours in Punjab; despite the Congress emerging as the largest party in Goa & Manipur, the BJP pipped them to the post which is as much a commentary on the laggard pace of Congress’s decision making as much as a reflection of the BJP penchant for forming the govt. at all costs; both these trends are suicidal for democracy. 

Later, the BJP got its own candidate, Ram Nath Kovind, as President in July & Venkaiah Naidu, as VP, in Aug, cementing its position further on constitutional positions. India, thus, is transitioning from an era of anti-Congressism to anti- BJPism.

Jio becomes Paid Service: Jio started charging for its services from April 2017 after accumulating over 100 million customers during the previous 6 months of free service, accelerating industry consolidation. Idea & Voda have announced their merger, Airtel acquired Telenor & Tata’s prepaid services while Rcom discontinued its prepaid services from 1^st Dec heralding a possible 4 player scenario (Airtel, Idea-Vodafone, Jio, BSNL-MTNL) in the short term. Eventually, we might see a 3 player scenario if the govt. entities BSNL-MTNL fail to survive competition or a 2 player scenario if Idea-Voda fail to launch a quad core service – mobile, landline, broadband & TV. Massive job losses are hence a consequence not only in telcos but also in affiliated sectors: telecom infra companies, call centres, IT & networking companies.

GST era Begins: P Chidambaram mooted an indirect tax reform – GST – in the budget speech of 2005-06 & after 6 torturous years, Pranab Mukherjee presented it to Parliament, in 2011, only to be met with resistance, especially from the state of Gujarat whose CM was Modi then.  GST was finally launched on 1^st July, this year, at a midnight session of Parliament only the 4^rd time in history – 15^th Aug 1947 being the first, & the 25^th & 50^th independence anniversaries in 1972 & 1997 respectively being the other two – inviting ridicule from the opposition who termed it as another instance of Modi’s “Event Management”. Unfortunately, the stands of our political class is contingent on where they sit - ruling party or opposition benches.

Despite the initial teething troubles, it is sane to conclude that GST would help in genuinely creating “One India” & aid in plugging tax leakages & help in GDP acceleration. 11 years from conceptualization to fruition alludes to the slow pace of decision making in a parliamentary democracy forcing people to earn for a dictatorship; according to a Pew study 55% of Indians want an autocracy & 27% support a “Strong Leader”; noticeably, people above 50 years of age reject the idea, perhaps, because they experienced the emergency.

Doklam Standoff: Indian forces were mired in a standoff with the Chinese forces, for opposing the Chinese road construction activity in the India - Bhutan – China tri junction in June 2017; the standoff lasting about 3 months post which diplomacy arranged for disengagement, in Aug. In the interim, skirmishes were reported between the forces at the Pangong lake in Ladakh & brawls in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, indicative of potential areas of conflict in the days to come. Despite the agreement on withdrawal of forces, robust Chinese presence at Doklam, a departure from their regular practice of withdrawal during winter is foreboding. Indian gains beyond the patriotic euphoria amongst the citizens for staring at the dragon are debatable; Japan, incidentally, was the only country to publicly approve of the Indian action. The mistrust between the Asian giants is likely to persist with important spill over effects into the coming years.

For a long term plan to contain China read http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2017/07/how-can-india-contain-china.html

Epochal Judgements by Supreme Court: Privacy upheld & Triple Talaq held illegal. The honourable SC in a unanimous 9-0 judgement held on 24^th Aug 2017, that privacy is a fundamental right under Article 21 – Right to Life & Liberty; it is a landmark judgement that shall impact free speech, transparency, data protection, state surveillance, LGBT rights etc. The validity of Aadhar being made mandatory is left to another 5 judge bench to be decided later. Likewise, by a 3-2 judgement it held triple talaq or Talaq –e-biddat unconstitutional. Perhaps, Nikah Halala should be the next on the chopping block to provide respite to the Muslim women from exploitation.  Uniform civil code, though, should be introduced post wide consultations since inequity, inequality & gender injustice are prevalent in all religions.

Gauri Lankesh Murder: The dastardly assassination of journalist Gauri Lankesh in Bangalore, in Sept., raised issues of press freedom. With no conclusive action in prosecuting the killers of rationalists Dhabolkar, Pensare & Kalburgi, the capability of Indian investigative agencies & the political will is being severely questioned. The rise of cow vigilantism, violence & murder of innocents is likely to have long term deleterious social & political consequences imperilling Indian security.

Indian Eves Glitter: Indian women won the Asia Hockey cup after 13 years beating China 5-4 in a penalty shootout, at Japan, in Nov, ensuring automatic qualification for the World Cup next year. Mary Kom, the same month, at Vietnam, won her 5^th Asian boxing title in the 48Kg class. Shuttler PV Sindhu had a great year winning 3 of the 6 finals she reached this year. Earlier, Indian women lost the Cricket world cup final to England, in July, only by a paltry 9 runs; all in all it was a great year for Indian sportswomen.

Manushi Chillar was crowned as the new Miss World in Nov. the 6^th Indian to achieve the elusive honour.

India becomes a member of Wassenaar: India, in Dec, was admitted as the 42^nd member of the Wassenaar – a grouping that regulates the sale of dual use technologies; this is in addition to the entry into the 35 member, Missile Technology Control Regime, last July.  With a clean waiver provided by the Nuclear Suppliers group & in lieu of the opposition, by China, to India’s entry to the 48 member grouping, India should concentrate on gaining entry to the Australia Group – that regulates Chemical & Biological weapons – instead, in 2018.

2G verdict Disappoints: Vinod Rai’s CAG report, in 2010, on spectrum allocation & telecom policy whipped the UPA regime into a policy paralysis courtesy parliamentary disruption. While he indicated 3 models of potential revenue loss, the opposition latched on to the highest fig of 1.76 lakh crore loss only to corner the govt. The CBI filed a charge sheet for a fig of about 31000 crores only & failed to prove even that in the CBI Court leading to exoneration of DMK’s Kanimozhi and A Raja & other accused including Rcom executives free. This verdict could challenge the Modi govt. resolve in enforcing justice especially when the Panama papers, Paradise Papers, HSBC  & Liechtenstein lists too have seen no action.

Dynastic accession in the GOP: Rahul Gandhi took over as the President of the Congress Party on 16^th Dec elected unopposed; his mother Sonia held it for 19 years, earlier, inviting accusations of dynastic succession. However, with all regional parties except the JD(U) following the same path & the BJP having the progeny of Rajnath Singh, Shivraj Chauhan, Raman Singh, Vasundhara, Prem Dhumal, Munde & Pramod Mahajan as legislators no party now can escape the barb of dynastic succession. Just as the viewers have forced some of the children - lacking talent - of screen gods & goddesses into premature retirement, voters should, likewise, show the door to dynasts who lack capability.

Conclusion:

2017 was a fascinating year for India with its share of highs & lows. The green-shoots of opposition unity, as seen in Gujarat, are indicative of a potentially exciting electoral narrative in 2018 & beyond. India’s economic revival to over 7.5% growth, though, is at least 6 quarters away. That makes one look forward towards 2018 with trepidation. 

Congress & BJP: Stratagems for 2019

The Modi govt. has completed three & a half years in power, without an effective opposition but the impending Gujarat assembly elections is turning out to be a cliff-hanger; an inflection point seems to have now been reached with the opposition tasting blood. Time is hence ripe to predict the broad strategies likely to be adopted by the BJP & the Congress in the run up to the 2019 general elections.

BJP Strategy: “Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan”

The BJP believes in the slogan: “Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan “given by its progenitor, the Jan Sangh. MS Golwalkar – the 2^nd head of its ideological fountain-head, the RSS - insisted on 5 unities – one language, one faith & one race with one culture in one nation “Akhand Bharat”.  It insists on “Hindi” as all pervasive national language & “Hindutva” as an ideological glue holding entire “Hindustan” under a nationalistic & patriotic spirit.

Congress Strategy: “Linguism, Secularism, Federalism”

The dispirited Congress seems to have got a boost vide an alternative narrative that emanated not by the central think tank but from the Karnataka CM – Siddaramiah whose strategy roughly translates into the alternative slogan: Regional Language, Secularism, Federalism.  The DMK rode to power, in TN, for the first time, in 1967 riding on the anti -Hindi agitation. As part of a national party that instituted the 3 language education policy, Sidaramiah, cannot prescribe the 2 language policy followed in neighbouring TN but instances of blackening of Hindi names across metro stations has been seized to create a new discourse of Kannada nationalism; there is now a demand too to have a Karnataka flag.  The opposition, DMK, in TN, in Mar ’17, joined chorus when it opposed the English markings on national highway milestones being replaced with Hindi inscriptions. Telangana, in Sept’17,  too made Telugu a compulsory subject from  standard 1 to 12, surprisingly, attracting praise from VP, Venkaiah Naidu, indicating that many leaders from the BJP too, hailing from non- Hindi states - are uncomfortable with Hindi imposition.

With the BJP pushing for Hindu consolidation against the significant other ‘Muslim”, the opposition has traditionally favoured a “secular” discourse inviting the epitaph of “pseudo – secularism” from the former.  Siddaramiah has now creatively found a new opening by endorsing the demand of Lingayats – the core support base of the BJP & at a 20% of the population, a dominant electoral constituency of Karnataka – that they be declared a separate religion, since the founder Basavanna had shunned Vedic rituals & agama shastras; incidentally, BJP strongman, Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat, had demanded a separate religion status some years back & hence cornered.

Hindu consolidation is also countered vide caste assertion. In Gujarat, the Rajput, Alpesh Thakur, Dalit, Jignesh Mewani & the Patidar, Hardik Patel have extended support to the Congress, fracturing the Hindu forces in their Gujarat lab.

While the BJP has been articulating the spirit of “co-operative federalism” the dominance of Narendra Modi over both the party & govt. & the use of article 356 in Uttarakhand & Arunachal has strengthened opinion that the country is regressing towards the Indira Gandhi era of greater centralization – the re- emergence of the Delhi Sultanate. Hence the demand for true Federalism by the opposition is a rallying clarion call.

Modi -Shah Counter

The Modi - Shah juggernaut though is not sitting idle. The death of a strong supremo like Jayalalitha without an anointed successor or a strong democratic party hierarchy – but with a 1.5 crore cadre - is a once in a lifetime opportunity which they are keen to exploit; IT raids on the Mannargudi clan is to finish the money bags of the party & force a merger at an opportune time, perhaps post 2019. However, TN politics is characterized by an oscillating polity with one of the Dravidian parties winning in alternate elections. It is thus feasible that the DMK led group would get about 35 of the 39 seats in 2019; the Modi-Karunanidhi meeting recently in Chennai should be seen in this regard. The BJP is thus running with the hare & hunting with the hounds.

The Challenges to the BJP

The BJP’s electoral compulsions are palpable. A marginalized Shiv Sena is blowing hot & cold & could join the NCP-Congress combine in fighting the BJP in the 2019 elections. The Akali-Dal is unhappy just like the Telugu Desam but would hitch their bandwagons to the BJP since the Congress is their prime opposition in their home states. The JD (U) too is smarting post their non-inclusion in the union council of ministers; having dumped the BJP in 2014 & re-entering into their embrace in 2017, the JD(U) is constrained of further leg room.  All of them would demand their pound of flesh at an opportune time.

Other problems abound. The BJP won 282 seats in 2019, 10 more than a simple majority aided majorly by winning 71 of the 80 seats in UP.  They maintained their dominance in the assembly elections too held in 2017 benefitting from a fractured polity. Stung & wise a SP-BSP-Congress combine is a distinct reality in 2019, an alliance that could win at least 60 seats, dipping the BJP tally by about 50 seats.  The road to Delhi passes via Lucknow & a dip in seats here could be fatal.  The impressive performance, in 2014, in Gujarat (26/26), Rajasthan (25/25), Haryana (7/10), Madhya Pradesh (27/29), Chhattisgarh (10/11), Maharashtra (23/48) are unlikely to be repeated in 2019. Thus the BJP’s no.  would drop by at least 100  in 2019; it could still emerge as the single largest party though.  Inducting TMCs Mukul Roy in Bengal, & hobnobbing with BJDs Jay Panda in Odisha & Narayan Rane in Maharashtra are hence efforts at either adding a saleable strategic face or muscle in a bid to increase the national catchment. 

The BJP is losing current allies – MDMK of TN in 2014, SSS of Maharashtra in 2017 - & having opened up new war fronts - BJD in Odisha - might not attract new ones; it would however better its performance in Odisha in 2019. To cross the magic fig. of 272 on their own & deny negotiating space to their miffed allies, the BJP could reignite the strategies that paid handsome dividends in the past. The storming of Parliament in 1966 by the RSS & its affiliates on the issue of banning “cow slaughter” helped the Jan Sangh- win 35 seats in 1967 elections from 14 in 1962; it was their largest haul since independence. Likewise, the Ram Mandir agitation – by the Kamandal forces – helped it get to 120 seats in 1991. Thus cow protection, Ram Temple, invocation of nationalism over Vande Mataram, National Anthem & Bharat Mata, & Love jihad could be the various vectors employed. A skirmish at the border could fuel hyper nationalism. While “Vikas” would be the overarching theme spoken by national leaders, the cadre would sharpen the other vectors at the ground level.

Conclusion

The run up towards 2019, unfortunately, looks bloody. Gauri Lankesh’s assassins are still untraced. A fractious polity divided on the basis of caste by so called “secularists” or into religions by so called “communalists” are fatal for the growth of the nation. Hope better sense prevails across both the camps. Jai Hind!!

Pollution: How To Reduce Stubble Burning

The pollution haze in North India & the corresponding brouhaha in NCR has become a yearly malady, during the winter months, impacting citizen health & India’s international image.  Construction dust, vehicular pollution, industrial fumes, stubble burning in neighbouring states & tandoor & DG set exhausts are some of the prime culprits. Shift to CNG buses in 2001, vide a Supreme Court ruling, issued in 1998 & launch of Metro rail in 2002 were transformational initiatives but there is now a need for more policy measures. Stubble burning – a regular phenomenon during Oct- Nov - gained headlines since the Delhi CM Kejriwal has written to his counterparts requesting their support to quell the practice.

Punjab passed a law (Punjab Preservation of Subsoil Water Act), in 2009, making sowing of crops before May 10^th & transplantation before June 10 punishable by law with an intention to prevent excessive use of groundwater during summer months; sowing in June & the onset of monsoon soon after helped in improving the ground water situation; Haryana too followed suit in replicating the law the same year. Water usage dropped from 4500 litres per Kg of paddy production, planted in April- May to 1500-2000 litres of ground water usage when planted later. Farmers too shifted to planting sunflower or grams during April – May followed by rice thereafter. However the gap between rice, the Kharif crop (Apr- Oct) & wheat, the Rabi crop (Nov- Mar) leaves only a 15 – 20 day interlude forcing stubble burning as a cheaper & quicker option.

Greater prosperity leads to a shift of people away from agriculture & migration induces labour shortages forcing wage increases & later mechanization.  The use of “combine harvesters” leaves a longer stubble. Moreover, wheat stubble is preferred over rice stubble as animal feed in states like Punjab. Since it generally costs about Rs 2000/- per acre to remove the stubble farmers would prefer using a match stick - costing less than a rupee- to set the same on fire rather than expend labour to remove the same despite crop residue burning being banned by the National Green Tribunal on Dec 10, 2015 & the ruling is further supported by the Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1981. However, taking action against the farmers is difficult since they form an important vote bank & today have the support of militant unions. Unless they are compensated substantially more than their costs, stubble burning would persist.

Biomass burning – stubble, forest etc. - which was largely concentrated in the North western states of Punjab & Haryana is now spreading to UP, MP, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Rajasthan & small pockets of South India as per the NASA satellite images; increased irrigation leads to greater crop intensification – 3 crops yearly - & greater mechanization trends point towards an increased geographic spread of the malaise of residue burning & hence a national policy would be in order.

Policy Alternatives

Stubble can be used for producing power in boilers at 99% efficiency that leaves less ash than coal plants; it is also cheaper than coal. However, this might necessitate capital costs in building a 10-20 MW plant in each taluka to use the stubble generated in the catchment area.  Cost, hence, will be the key since the latest renewable energy price bids have dropped to as low as Rs 2.5/-per unit. Many states today have annulled the long term power purchase agreements – concluded at a rate between Rs 4-5.5 /- per unit - from thermal power plants & buying from exchanges instead, will be loath to purchase power produced vide stubble power plants at a higher cost.

Today, stubble is bought at Rs 100/- per quintal at factory site; the farmer who spends about Rs 2000/- per acre, on labour costs to remove stubble incurs additional cost to transport the same to the site. Since he barely recovers his costs, there is disinterest. Unless he is compensated to the extent of Rs 4- 5000 per acre, residue burning, would persist.

Stubble can be used to make cardboards, paper or ethanol; the sugarcane lobby, though, has a stranglehold on ethanol production - used to blend with petroleum fuels - & there is a need for greater democratization. This might be a better alternative to power production & a medium term plan since it involves capital cost & time to put up the plants.

Appeal to the Farmer & his Family Health

Even while the economic incentives model is launched, education campaigns need to be run simultaneously to convince the farmers that their own health is suffering, because of crop residue burning, increasing their healthcare expenditure in the bargain for particulate matter hits their lungs before affecting the people of NCR. Prompting them to use the stubble for organic farming practices would be a sound long term solution. 

Use of rotavators to remove stubble is a solution as are ‘Happy Seeder” machines that allow planting the wheat crop without removing the stubble with the added advantage of the stubble serving as mulch for dew. However demand for these machines has been low, despite subsidies, since India has a predominance of marginal farmers - about 85% of the total nos. - having less than 2 hectares (5 acres) holding; co-operative societies too haven’t shown enough urge. If the health appeal is bought by the farmers, the use of these machines would automatically increase.

The other alternatives are use of low gestation rice crops like PR121 or 126; if the gap between 2 crops thus increases, burning could reduce. It is also important to note that Punjab – a wheat producer & consumer - moved from the traditional crops like maize, pearl millet, pulses and oilseeds to the rice- wheat cycle in the 1970's, lured by the MSP support offered by the govt. With rice cultivation increasing in the rest of the country it may be time to revert to the traditional crops & govt. intervention on MSP & buying assurance for those crops is the policy intervention desired.

Conclusion

Unfortunately, legislative & executive inaction is forcing judicial intervention on policy. While the Delhi govt. has requested the neighbouring states for help, the Punjab CM has blamed the centre for not providing the requested subsidy to undertake the stubble buying option; farmers organization, BKU, had launched a protest in Haryana threatening to take 50 tractor-trollies of paddy stubble to the city & if the govt. makes no arrangements, for purchase, they would burn the same under protest.  The Delhi govt. which had provided for buying 2000 buses in the 2015-16 budget finds their request to the DDA – which falls under the central urban development ministry – to release land for building bus depots unacknowledged; the tussle with the LG puts decisions in a limbo.  AAP launched the odd-even scheme but has not taken much action on the construction dust issue while the solid waste disposal plans of the Municipal corporations of Delhi, that falls under the BJP,  have left much to be desired.  It is time we transition from political filibustering & work on concrete solutions with time lines. Else, the “gas chamber” will devour us. Isn’t it time to make “Right to breathe clean air” a fundamental right?