Is Delhi Right In Reintroducing the Odd Even Scheme Now

The Delhi govt. has reintroduced the odd/ even formula for a 15 day period on April 15^th on popular demand they claim; Arvind Kejriwal – the Delhi CM – announced that as per a poll conducted, 81% of Delhi respondents wanted reintroduction of the scheme with 61% insisting on making it a permanent feature. Delhi has a population of about 2 crores (1.68 crores as per 2011 census) & 28 lakh cars (14%) & Kejriwal’s revelations, perhaps, indicate that non car users – the core support base of AAP - must have demanded such a scheme. It would be interesting to understand how many of the car owners polled wanted this scheme to be introduced especially when alternative public transport arrangements have not been strengthened.  One must, however, hasten to add that that while only 15% of the people travel by cars, they occupy 90% of road space; with 26% of Delhi being under roads – a decent figure – & 66 flyovers, de-clogging of roads is definitely a good measure to enhance vehicular velocity though not necessarily pollution.

 When this policy was run for a trial period between Jan 1-15^th this year, it earned plaudits from many international media houses including Fox news.  A critique of that trial is listed below.

http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2015/12/delhi-pollution-control-measures.html

Measures announced as part of the 13 point action plan in Jan such as the introduction of suction machines for road cleanliness & green cover on side-walks to prevent dust rise are yet to be fully implemented. With no / meagre  accretion to the Delhi Transport Corporation(DTC) bus fleet of 4461 - though 3000 busses were budgeted - & no addition to the battery operated vehicles/ e –rickshaws for last mile connectivity it is appears that reintroduction of the scheme during this summer is ill thought out.  While a subsidy of Rs 15000 per unit was paid for 3709 battery operated vehicles & e rickshaws last year & the amount doubled to Rs 30000/- this year, it would take some more time before many take advantage of this scheme. None would however counter the urgent need to combat pollution & create awareness for Delhi is one of the most polluted cities in the world.

PM2.5 micro-particles are classed as a Group 1 carcinogen by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and are responsible for lung & heart diseases. The official safe limit for PM2.5 particles - set by the WHO and the European Union - is 25 micrograms per cubic metre while the US mandates a far higher threshold of 12 micrograms per cubic metre. Air in Delhi is 30 times the US limit and more than 15 times the WHO safe limit

Sunita Narain of CSE (Centre for Science & Environment) contents that pollution was stagnant during the trial period as compared to the previous month but was lower than that of Jan 2015. Therefore, it would be reasonable to infer that had the scheme not been introduced, pollution in Delhi would have been worse.  Prof Dinesh Mohan of IIT Delhi has argued that PM 2.5 accounts for 30% of the pollution mix & 4 wheelers account for 20% of that number & a 50% reduction in 4 wheeler vehicular traffic vide the odd/even scheme translates to a theoretical reduction of PM 2.5 by 3% only; however, courtesy, exemptions & violations, 4 wheeler traffic actually reduced by 30% only & therefore PM 2.5 must have reduced by about 2% & hence “not substantial”.  Likewise, average vehicular speeds increased by a “marginal” 5% as per the same study although it varied throughout the day.  From the Research conducted by Ministry of Environmental Protection in China one can deduce that automobiles account for a higher percentage of pollutants when there is severe pollution, because other pollution sources are more stable. Therefore, limiting the no of vehicles on roads as an “emergency measure” is an effective intervention to reduce the number of days with extreme smog.  If made “permanent”, though, it would invite violations as it happened in Mexico City, Bogota et al, either through the fake no plate route – a joy to dubious traders – or addition of an alternate no plate vehicle by the prosperous effectively nullifying the objectives of the scheme. Implementing the odd/even scheme as part of a “basket of measures” is therefore recommended for greater effect.

Basket of Measures

Strengthening public transport is the urgent need. The success of the Delhi metro shows that once provided with a comfortable "value for money" option citizens are more than willing to make a shift from earlier practices. Launching the scheme during the hot summer - when pollution is lower as compared to winter - is therefore ill advised. Prudence demands implementation of the scheme only after the last mile connectivity issues are addressed to avoid civilian discomfiture.

The current scheme suffers from many deficiencies.  Running the scheme not for the entire day but only between 8 AM to 8 PM ensures only a change in traffic pattern without a commensurate reduction in pollution. Running it for a 24 hour period - without any exceptions - to VIPs, women or children going to schools- would ensure better results.  Delhi has 56 lakh two wheelers & 27 lakh four wheelers & not applying the odd/even scheme to the former is a sub optimal solution.  

Some cities have tried stricter models of not allowing vehicles into the CBD (Central Business district); walking, cycling & use of public transport are encouraged in that order & it resulted in small businesses in those areas doing remarkably well because of enhanced business from the increased pedestrian traffic. This too should be replicated in the NCR.

It is, however, disconcerting that there is no discussion on implementation of stricter norms of managing construction dust which is arguably the largest pollutant in the NCR.  Additional Solicitor General, Pinky Anand appearing for Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, in the National Green Tribunal (NGT) hearings, averred that most countries adopt fitness tests, including emission checks of vehicle as a criterion for curbing pollution and not the age of the vehicle. This assertion needs a wider debate to check if this is a better measure than a ban on vehicles over 15 years old.

Only when all the above basket of measures are combined with making an effort to make Delhi an “eco city” would the results be dramatic providing relief to the hoi polloi.

Making Delhi an “Eco City”

Delhi should plan to become an “eco city” -based on several criteria including “zero waste” – through recycle & reuse policy - & “zero carbon emissions” – by relying entirely on renewable energy. Individuals, corporates & governments should join hands to ensure that there is a massive shift towards walking, biking & public transportation, through “environmental education”. High urban density would be a likely consequence which would free up vast land tracks to be used for parks & urban agriculture. Unlike the current situation where agricultural goods are transported from the rural hinterland to the urban centres adding to the “carbon emissions’ this policy would promote more of local production & procurement promoting ecological preservation. If you add increased productivity in manufacturing it would automatically lead to a reduction in energy usage & promote greater sustainability.

Air pollution has been responsible for cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer & heart diseases. More of green cover helps absorb carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and sulphur dioxide as well as absorb airborne particulates and reduce heat, thereby promoting public health.

Delhi govt. should take advantage of the “solar mission” & offer, on tender, the rooftops of govt. buildings to private parties to establish solar panels & sell power to the Delhi govt. This should be supplemented with a model of allowing all consumers in Delhi to replicate the same with the incentive to generate an additional income by selling excess power so generated to the grid – a model successfully implemented in Germany. Asking the Delhi development authority (DDA) which comes under the National Govt. to release land for setting up additional solar parks should be also done & surplus power, if generated, should be shared with neighbouring states which shall then be amenable to persuasions on closing down their coal powered plants. This is critical since air pollution in Delhi is also caused by polluting industries in neighbouring states.

Govt. efforts would be futile if citizens lack responsibility & civic sense; therefore efforts should be made to make pollution reduction a mass movement & encourage behavioural change through mass media. 

Citizen contribution

Civic consciousness among the citizens has to be enhanced to encourage “Recycling & Reuse” of paper, plastic, glass bottles, cardboard, ink cartridges and aluminium cans etc. Segregation of household waste at home hopefully would reduce chances of a repeat of the Deonar dumping ground fire disaster at Mumbai. Segregated vegetable waste can be used to produce compost to be used for plants at home; planting deciduous trees around one’s house helps provide shade in summer & allow light in winter. Buying organic foods would over a period of time reduce the consumption of pesticides, fungicides, herbicides & artificial fertilizers. Likewise, reduction of energy consumption at home by switching off gadgets when not in use & using natural light often is recommended, for electricity is largely produced from thermal sources which contribute substantially to pollution. Buying energy efficient devices by closely following the “Star Rating” & shifting to solar is always a better option. Germany has proved that each home can generate additional electricity vide solar to he handed over to the grid generating an additional income too in the bargain.

Conclusion

Unlike solid waste, air pollution traverses across cities & hence is more complex to control. Some of the steps taken by Beijing include suspending schools, banning fireworks & outdoor barbecuing & introducing vehicles quotas to make vehicle acquisition difficult. Some of these have not been attempted in Delhi yet, perhaps, a consequence of a benevolent democracy.

Making the cost of acquisition of the 2^nd vehicle & beyond, disproportionately high, as attempted in certain countries needs to be immediately implemented. Penalizing the acquisition of diesel vehicles - the worst polluters – is needed; however govt. should have announced a roadmap on the same to avoid auto corporations from making additional investments on plants manufacturing diesel engine.  Preponing the implementation of Bharat VI norms to 2017 against 2019, however, would help. Encouraging “carpooling” shall reduce pollution as well as improve social contacts which have reduced in this fast paced world. AAP should tap the RWAs (Resident Welfare Associations) & it’s much feted Mohalla Sabhas to make this an unstoppable movement.

The Pangs of Prosperity

"Does anyone travel by a bus” an innocuous & innocent poser from a 7 year daughter of my prosperous friend set me thinking. Blessed with 3 cars & having never set foot on a bus, she was genuinely posing such a query not out of lofty self-aggrandizement but perhaps out of blissful ignorance to deprivations around. Children of successful Millennials’ - of the liberalized generation -  who have never seen “rationing” but only abundant “choices” grow up thinking that this is "Normal" ;for parents of such kids it is the “New Normal”. While as doting parents we pray that our kids remain blessed for life, a reality check is essential to induce greater awareness.

People of the previous generation, during their childhood, were much happier with smaller mercies. They either walked to school or used public transport for school busses had not made their flashy entry yet. Some corporates – including where my father worked - provided transport to the children of their employees to schools & that was seen as a genuine luxury & awe inspiring to others. Birthdays entailed sharing a toffee with each of the class students & a “Happy birthday to you” chorus generated great joy. Contrast that with the current trend of birthday bashes, return gifts & the difference is stark.  A school outing to a zoo or a park made the day then but only a foreign excursion does so today. Ignorance of realities - faced by the vast teeming millions of the Indian population today or of the experiences of the previous generation - are indeed the pangs of prosperity.

My father was an officer in a PSU & we had a charmed life. Off course by grandfather was a humble farmer who started out in a thatched hut. To ensure that biting realities are understood by his children my father took me through 3^rd class train journeys on some occasions. The sweaty surroundings, the unclean toilets & the lack of adequate breathing spaces were in stark contrast to the salubrious climes of 2^nd class or A/C that we usually travelled.  But the reality check of what a majority of Indians endure daily was immersed. Likewise, I never understood poverty & the concept of hunger until my father made me go without dinner & relinquished the same himself for the day as a sign of solidarity with a learning child. There are some who might call these measures harsh but I have definitely gained through such immersion programs & would suggest similar learning programs for other doting parents too. The pangs of poverty have to be experienced to create a more inclusive & understanding society.

The pangs of prosperity may seem oxymoronic to some but unless reality checks are introduced the current generation may not be in a position to tackle the pangs of poverty if such a situation unfortunately arises. Even if they remain well off they need to be appreciative of the pangs of poverty to be more inclusive.  India runs on domestic help & the abuse & their immediate termination on perceived inefficiency is in stark contrast to the demands of compensation when served with pink slips. Children should be educated to respect domestic help – maids, cooks, drivers’ et al. Off course it should start with parents first.

Asking for everything under the sun is child’s nature & as doting parents we succumb to such demands courtesy our own guilt feelings of not spending enough time with the child. We are more than willing to spend money but not time. Will this over a period of time lead to the decimation of the famed Indian family values?  The danger it appears is lurking near.

While spending time over money is essential, inculcating the concept of saving among kids is critical. Give them a rupee a day with the freedom to buy a toffee daily or save enough for a few days to indulge oneself with a Cadbury 5 star. Likewise teenagers could be given Rs 10 (say) daily to be used as pocket money that can be immediately consumed or saved to buy dresses of choice over a few months. A kid who has not spent any money for a year (say) is rewarded with 10% extra at the end of the year not only to make the concept of "interest" clearer but also to give them a nuanced understanding of the advantages of postponing current consumption. Going forward opening an account for a teenager in the bank would help. Learning on alternate consumption options & teaching simple ways to analyse the cost benefit analysis of such decisions could make kids more responsible.

Parents & teachers are perhaps in the best position to teach kids make rational choices, develop an inclusive mind-set & be appreciative of deprivations around. Options are many on how to make that possible. It is, therefore, left largely to parents to make enlightening interventions to make a kid’s transition through life easier.

How to usher in Ache Din

As per the World Bank any person thriving below $1.25 per day is declared as extremely poor & those less than $2 per day as poor. Various commissions in India have made a mockery of that recommendation; the Tendulkar committee fixed Rs 27 per day for rural & Rs 33 per day for urban to determine poverty thresholds which showed poverty in India at 22% of the population.   Post a furore, carried intensely by the national media the NITI Ayog recommended a fig of 40% while the Rangarajan committee suggested Rs 32/- for rural & Rs 47/- in urban as threshold determinants of poverty. People below poverty line (BPL) in India are 27 crores as per the Tendulkar committee & 37 crores as per the Rangarajan committee. It must however be remembered that the lower middle class that lives just above this threshold could sink back into the abyss during the times of an economic upheaval caused by either business cycles or the wrath of nature.

The World Millennium development goals, propounded in 1990, aimed at reducing poverty by 50% by 2015 but have been achieved 5 years earlier. In 2012, 89.6 crore people were living on less than $1.9 per day & a major chunk of those unfortunately live in South Asia & Sub Saharan Africa. Needless to say, India is the largest contributor with human development index figures poorer than even neighbouring Bangladesh. Therefore, the Indian govt. is better served by concentrating on the basic necessities – food, primary health & education, maintenance of law & order & finally quick & effective dispensation of justice.  For details read my article

http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2016/03/political-parties-in-india-havecoined.html

The other recommended steps

Provide safety net

Successive Indian governments have distinguished themselves with a blithe of misplaced priorities. The Telangana CM, KCR announced on the floor of the state assembly that during the last 20 years the no of houses build by the state govt. was higher than the no of households in Telangana – alluding to a deep seated builder politico nexus; surely the same miasma would be evident in all states. If the period from independence is considered the rot would be much higher. Would it not be a more prudent strategy to legalize unauthorized colonies & provide facilities of drinking water& electricity – thereby destroying the electricity & water mafia - & establishing police stations in such area - to control the rogue elements? The costs would be substantially less & the benefits to the society a lot higher for basic necessities along with security provide a wide & effective safety net.

Get out of loss making PSUs

Kingfisher airlines & Vijay Mallya were panned by the media for siphoning off 9000 crores from banks; if Kingfisher got funds from the banks, Air India gets funds directly from the govt.  & in each case it is the tax payers’ money blown down the drain. While Air India is a perpetual offender in terms of running perennially at a loss the ostensible reason cited by the govt. for extending support is protection of jobs of the employees; the real reason though is that the selfish motive of elected representatives to retain the perks associated with Air India. Extending the same logic, there is no reason whatsoever for the state running hotels or not closing loss making organizations. In fact non-closure of defunct state sector organizations denies the golden handshake amounts to employees who would otherwise benefit from a quick disbursal to be used to restart their careers elsewhere.  Liquidation of the land banks of such orgs can also solve the housing problem in the country.

Reduce agricultural intermediation & raise farm productivity & prices

While the political class claims to represent farmers, the farm gate prices for most commodities are about one third of what the final consumer pays. Both the consumers as well as the farmers would gain through the elimination of intermediaries. The obvious solution is removal of APMC ( Agricultural Prices Market Commission). Since it is largely held by political cohorts  & its abolition was indeed proposed by the Congress, before the 2014 elections, its own Chief Ministers did not follow through; the main opposition party BJP as well as other ruling parties in the states did nothing either indicating unanimity across the political divide.  Allowing of FDI in retail would help create infrastructure -including cold chains - which shall help in farmers getting better prices & the consumers lower ones.

The political class however raises the bogey of retail trade losing out in the eventually of FDI in retail being allowed.  India has about 13 million retail outlets & assuming a family size of 5 about 6.5 crore people are dependent on retail trade. Contrast this with about 62.5 crores (50% of the 125 crore population) dependent on farming who can potentially gain through better remuneration for their produce & all the 125 crores – including retailers  who need to buy products they don’t currently sell – shall gain through lower prices.

It is a fact, however, that retail outlets near a modern trade outlet get affected.  Such outlets could shift to a new area in the city. Displacement is painful & a solution of last resort. However, if displacement is a natural corollary for constructing irrigation, mining projects et al as per the compensation mandated under the recently proposed land acquisition act, surely similar rules should apply to displacement of effected retailers too. The dice of public policy is thus cast. Removal of APMC & creation of a truly free national market – which India currently is not - & allowing FDI in retail is the surest antidote to inflation.

Clean up the Real Estate sector to tackle the blithe of black money

With black money largely pouring into this sector a hawk eyed management of this sector rather than passage of black money laws in Parliament shall be more helpful. Raghuram Rajan has advocated that reality sector should drop prices to reduce inflation thereby helping the govt. drop interest rates further rather than arguing for interest rate drops alone.  The builder lobby along with their political masters – many of whom are interested parties & therefore keen to acquiesce - have succeeded in pushing through tax sops for the sector during the last 2 budgets though it is a sub optimal solution. Strong regulation of this sector shall stifle political funding & perhaps lead to better governance.

Professionalise PSU Banks

The public sector banking sector has piled up huge NPAs because of a politico – bureaucratic – promoter nexus helped by faulty project appraisals; else how can one explain how all the road projects got their traffic projections abysmally wrong.   P Chidambaram once noted that in India companies become bankrupt while promoters don’t. The lack of an effective law for liquidation & the long drawn labyrinthine of court proceedings helps many culprits to escape. Mandating a 3 year timeline from the trial court to the Supreme Court with a cap on adjournments & postponements shall help. It would also be prudent for the governments to bring in professional boards to man banks. Creation of a holding company – a la Singapore model - & acceleration of divestment & drop of govt. holding to 51% shall help. Going forward this holding company can start making acquisitions abroad.

Conclusion

Clearly, Indian governments – belonging to any political dispensation - are getting their priorities wrong.  It is time the economic & social thrust of govt. policy is revisited