POTUS Donald Trump’s India Visit: The Takeaways

The 2 day India visit of US President Donald Trump, started at Ahmedabad, on 24^th Feb’2020 & concluded at Delhi, the next day, with a stopover, in between, at Agra – to see the iconic Taj Mahal. Trump, generally, is known to dislike long travel & would not have undertaken the India visit - a 8000 mile, 19 hour trip - if he wasn’t assured of benefits that would aid his re-election bid later this year; having escaped impeachment, he must have been keen to erase bad headlines, resurrect his image & assure his electorate that he is an immensely popular international leader capable of extracting trade/defense deals to “Keep America Great” – his likely 2020 election campaign slogan. Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, did not disappoint, either, by carefully curating the event: feeding into Trump’s ego with supporters & performers lining the streets of Ahmedabad, cheering President of the Unites States's (POTUS) cavalcade, soon followed with a grand reception, titled “Namaste Trump”, graced by a capacity crowd of 1.25 lakhs, at the largest cricket stadium in the world, at Motera. The defense deal worth $3 billion – consisting of 24 MH-60R Naval + 6 AH64E Apache helicopters - signed the next day- makes him a happy man; he would fervently hope that a significant part of the 4.4 million strong Indian diaspora, in the US, largely traditional Democratic Party supporters, would shift to the Republican party, helping him, especially, in the swing states like Florida & states like Texas where the contest appears to be tighter this time round.

“Event Manager’ Modi, rightly, capitalized on Trump’s weakness for flattery & spectacle, perhaps, learning from the Saudis who organized an elaborate “Ardah” sword dance at the Murabba Palace, in May 2017, the French, who  invited the POTUS for the Bastille day celebration, in July 2017, the Japanese, who invited him as the first state guest after the new King Naruhito’s coronation, in May 2019 or the British feted him with a 4 course meal, at the Buckingham Palace, with Queen Elizabeth, in June 2019. That Trump was delighted with the same is evident since he termed his reception “incredible”. The personal admiration was evident when Modi described Trump as a man who “Thinks Big” & the latter reciprocated by describing Modi as an “exceptional leader & great champion of India & my true friend” – during his Motera speech & “religious, calm man” but “strong” & confident that he “will take care of terrorism”, during the presser.

First Lady of the United States (FLOTUS), Melania,, was seen in a white jumpsuit with a green sash with golden threads – ticking 2 of the 3 colors of the Indian national flag; the missing saffron – a Hindu symbol - & the presence of green – identified with Islam - caused a minor internet outrage. Trump's speech, at Motera , however, compensated by ticking the right boxes: he assured that India & US shall jointly fight against “radical Islamic terrorism” while managing a balancing act by saying that “his administration has been working with Pakistan to crack down on terrorists & militants that operate on Pakistani borders” instead of using the words “on its soil”; after all US needs Pak to nudge the Taliban to sign a face saving deal to facilitate American withdrawal from a “very difficult & dangerous part of the world”, Afghanistan, without a loss of face. By proclaiming that every nation has a right to “secure & control its borders” & that the US & India are committed towards working together to “stop terrorists & fight their ideology” he, perhaps, expressed support for the Citizenship Amendment ACT (CAA); his reluctance, during the presser, to be drawn into the CAA issue, calling it “upto India” to handle buttresses the assessment.  He praised India – “a democratic, peaceful, tolerant & free” country” & perhaps drew a contrast with China – that “seeks power through coercion, intimidation & aggression”.

Interestingly, while Trump or Melania did not don their ear phones, while listening to Modi, speak in an unfamiliar Hindi, Ivanka did so & that perhaps highlights 2 issues: his lack of attention to detail unlike Ivanka & explains why she has emerged as his trusted adviser.

The speeches by the two leaders had their hilarious moments caused vide mispronunciations inviting memes galore; while Modi addressed POTUS as “Dolan Trump”, Trump lived up to his reputation with a series of gaffes: “Vivekananda” as “Viveka-mu-nand”,  Vedas as Vestas, “Sachin” Tendulkar as “Soochin”, “Virat Kohli” as “Virot Kolee”,  referring to Modi as “Chi wala” against “Chai vala”(Tea seller) but that is excusable especially when Indians too, while speaking, in their nonnative tongues, fall prey to a similar ignorance. Otherwise, he succeeded in pressing the right notes. His specific reference to Indian achievements in the space field is interesting & that explains why the US, generally, reticent in terms of sharing cutting edge technology, is keen to collaborate with India in the areas of space & drones.

Trumps remarkable stickiness to the script & his “conservative answers”,  calling CAA violence is “upto India” to handle & religious freedom, in India,  is better “relative to other places” would be seen by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) as a foreign policy triumph. The two jarring notes though: Trump’s offer for “mediation” with Pakistan, again, during the press meet - & averring that “Kashmir has been torn between a lot of sides” & “there are two sides to every story” - & his apparent refusal to have the vegetarian fare, including broccoli & corn button samosas, served to him, opting, instead, for non-vegetarian stuff.The Indian foreign policy & political establishment should never forget the negative consequences of a "no liquor" policy followed earlier & should serve food preferred by a visiting dignitary; after all the way to the heart passes through the stomach.

That the relationship has traversed a long way, since the cold war era, is reflected in the Indo-US joint statement’s  reference to a “Comprehensive Global strategic partnership” & “strategic convergence in the Indo-Pacific” & “US-India-Australia-Japan Quadrilateral consultations" - an euphemism to contain China - & the “partnership between USAID & Indian Development partnership administration”, perhaps, to counter China’s Belt & Road initiative, the “Blue Dot network”  & calling on “Pakistan that no area under its control is used to launch terrorist attacks”. While the statement reiterated India’s status as a “Major Defense partner”, the decision to reinvigorate the “homeland security dialogue” between the Indian Home Ministry & the US department of Homeland security & intent to establish a “counter narcotics working group” & “promptly conclude phase 1 of a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement” & expand the energy trade to coking/metallurgical coal – over & above the LNG, oil & nuclear energy already underway - is indeed welcome.

The Trade deal is a work in progress, perhaps, because Modi is a “tough negotiator” but Trump believes that “India is probably the highest tariff nation in the world” & “it has to stop at least as it pertains to the US”. This implies that the trade pressure on India shall continue; the Japanese realized that trade pressure did not cease despite the brilliant Trump welcome they served. Trump “admires” India & calls his visit a diplomacy of “great friendship & respect” with a potential to go places – a “natural beautiful enduring friendship”.

Development of relations, with India, has a bipartisan support, across the aisle, in Washington DC, but the “Howdy Modi” event in Texas, in Sept, 2019 & the “Namaste Trump” event, this month, risk identifying, the Indian govt., closely with the Republicans, leading to a Democratic Party backlash. The last 3 decades, have largely seen Democratic & Republican parties enjoy a 8 year revolving cycle of US Presidentship & it is probable that Trump could get a 2^nd term; however, the Indian foreign policy establishment should evaluate, if the benefits of a closer identification with Trump – who is only “transactional”, in his outlook – is helpful, in the short run, during the next 4 years, is worth imperiling India’s relationship with the Democrats. One fervently hopes that despite trade friction & the apparent unease in the Congress on Kashmir & the citizenship issue, the congruence of values, geopolitics & commerce shall help take this defining relationship of the 21^st century to new heights.