Modi Sarkar@4 Years

Chastened by the Karnataka verdict but not subdued, Prime Minister, Narendra Modi led the BJP’s 4^th anniversary celebration at Odisha – a state they have already made deep in-roads & armed with promising plans to make substantial gains in the 2019 Parliamentary elections in a bid to compensate for losses elsewhere.  Modi – not only the chief mascot of the party but also its de-facto propaganda in chief - yet again listed the achievements of his govt. in superlative terms only to be snubbed by his rival Rahul Gandhi who awarded him an “F” grade in governance – “agriculture, foreign policy, fuel prices & job creation” & an “A+” in “slogan creation & self- promotion”. Obviously, the actual achievements of the govt. lie in between the two extreme assessments.

Achievements Modi can be Proud off

Swatch Bharat: Modi launched the Swatch Bharat mission immediately on ascending to power, perhaps, influenced by Mahatma Gandhi’s campaign during the freedom struggle. Building of 7.25 crore toilets in villages & schools supported by TVC‘s helmed by influencers – Anushka Sharma & Amitabh Bachchan – to drive behavioural changes, to encourage usage of toilets, in the masses - has the potential to enhance health parameters & enrolment of more girl-children into schools, many of who discontinue education, post puberty, for want of privacy provided by toilets.

Ujala & Ujwala Scheme: Modi sarkar has driven savings in electricity costs by encouraging mass distribution of 90 crore LED bulbs (30 crore by govt. & 60 crore by pvt. sector) under the “Ujala” scheme; likewise, by setting a target of 175 GW of renewable energy by 2022, they have driven solar costs down to Rs 2.46/- per unit; at some point these cost savings should get transferred to the hoi polloi vide a cut in electricity tariffs which is still due.  Similarly, the “Give It Up” campaign - that encouraged people to give up the benefits of subsidized gas cylinders - was followed by delivering 3.8 crore free LPG connections to BPL(Below Poverty Line) families  in rural, thereby delivering twin benefits: Eliminating rich recipients & hence saving on subsidy; & encouraging the poor to shift to a cleaner fuel, thereby, enhancing the health of the womenfolk  who otherwise spent most of the time near smoke emitting chulas inviting heart, lung & eye ailments. These moves enhance environmental protection too & hence highly applauded. The low refill rate of cylinders, though, appears a concern since BPL families perhaps, still find it unaffordable. The govt., meanwhile, has announced plans to increase the BPL LPG connections target from 5 crores to 8 crores.

Achievements Modi can be Partially Proud off /should share credit with his predecessors

Universal Insurance: Attempts to make India an insured society by a contributory funding scheme of Rs 12/- paid by the insuree for an accident insurance of 2 lakhs has benefitted 13.25 crore people & Rs 330/- for a life insurance of 2 lakhs has aided 5.22 crore families; the Atal Pension Yojana for the sexagenarians has benefitted over 1 crore unorganized sector workers & hence welcome.

However, launching “Ayushman Bharat” aka “Modicare” in its last year, that too with a budget of about 2000 crores only, for providing a 5 lakh health cover for 10 crore families (50 cr population) is too little too late. Some of the states like AP, Telangana & Tamil Nadu are already running health schemes & the cost of such schemes is higher than the centre’s budget proposal, leading many to question if this is another “Chunavi Jumla”.

It is pertinent to note that the agriculture insurance scheme has a payout of about Rs 20,000 crores annually (Rs 20,478 cr in 2016-17) to the insurance companies even while payment to farmers is about Rs 5,000 crores (5,650 crores in 2016-17) leading to supernormal profits for the intermediaries.  Hopefully, Modicare delivers a better model.

Foreign Policy: India joined the MTCR (Missile technology Control regime), in 2016 , Wassenaar Arrangement, dealing with conventional arms & dual use goods & technologies, in 2017, & Australia Group, dealing with Chemical & Biological weapons, in 2018  even while NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) proved elusive largely because of China's intransigence in seeking Indian parity with its iron brother- Pakistan.  Likewise, Indian soft power of Yoga has been expanded worldwide when the UN, in 2016, declared 21^st June as the World Yoga day. Similarly, hard power has been expanded vide LEMOA which secures Indian Military access to US bases in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean & Gaum in the Pacific; likewise agreements with France give access to her military bases in Djibouti & Reunion Islands near Madagascar; similar agreements have been inked with Singapore & potentially Indonesia for greater access east of Andamans. Furthermore, India will build its own base at Seychelles & Mauritius amidst pending plans for one more at Oman to access the Persian Gulf - all wise attempts to enhance India’s maritime reach & naval power.

However, India’s “Neighbourhood First” diplomacy is crumbling. Chinese stooge, KP Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal, has secured a landslide majority – fanning nationalism & anti-India sentiment courtesy the Indian blockade of Nepal, in 2015, to force a constitutional change for incorporating the aspirations of the Madhesis. Maldives continues to cock a snook at India & the Sri Lankan govt. is not as friendly as it once was when it came to power, in 2014. Bhutan has refused to be part of the BBIN (Bangladesh- Bhutan-India-Nepal) transport corridor ostensibly to prevent greater vehicular movement in the kingdom that could imperial her ecology. Support to Myanmar on the Rohingya issue & summersault soon thereafter to assuage the sentiments of Bangladesh has ruffled feathers in both the nations leaving India poorer.

Economy: The macros under this govt. look impressive & Modi never loses an opportunity to highlight that India moved away from the despicable tag of the “Fragile Five” economies, of 2013, to become the fastest growing large economy, in the world, & the investor darling during his regime, leading to the highest FDI of $60 billion against $36 billion per annum during the UPA regime. Surprisingly, a jobless growth scenario despite large FDI leads one to wonder if existing capacities are being bought by foreign players without creation of new ones.

The government’s lists the passage of the GST bill as a great achievement without acknowledging its own opposition to the bill, when on the other side on the aisle, as the reason for the delay; the congress should get the credit for initiating the bill & the BJP for passing it.

The government’s renegotiation of the Mauritius & the Singapore tax treaties is laudable for it has foreclosed loopholes even while the previous UPA govt. had dragged its feet.  To handle the “twin balance sheet” problem – companies with stressed balance sheets unable to repay debt thereby impacting the balance sheets of the creditor banks - & the consequent rise in NPA’s - the government passed the IBC (Insolvency & Bankruptcy code) which is truly transformational; the only regret is that insolvency professionals if appointed in the government's 2^nd year of its term would have cleaned the banking system by now.

BJP spokespersons, unfortunately, have a knack of being economical with facts. Indian GDP growth rate, during 2013-14, is 4.7% as per old series & 6.6% as per the new series & is likely to touch 6.6% again in 2017-18 post a peak of 8% achieved midway in 2015-16. Party spokespersons touting growth increase from 4.7% of 2013-14 to 7.2% in Q3 2017-18 is akin to comparing apples & oranges - an intellectually dishonest strategy for propaganda gains. Growth thus has improved but not as massively as claimed & demonetization has effected growth negatively.

Indeed, fiscal deficit of the centre has reduced by 1% from 4.5% in 2014 to 3.5% in 2016-17; states add an additional deficit of 3% leading to a combined national deficit of around 7.5% in 2013-14. Courtesy the “Uday” scheme on power sector reform – that entails state takeover of debt from the state power companies books - state fiscal deficit has upped to about 4%; thus the combined fiscal deficit of the centre & the states continues to hover around 7.5% as in 2014. 1% of GDP is about 1.7 lakh crores; pertinent to note that Centre made 1.35 lakh crores as excise in oil in 2013-14 which increased to 3.22 lakh crores in 2016-17 – an increase of 1.87 lakh crores. Thus the entire drop of 1% in fiscal deficit is funded not by cutting flab or increasing efficiency but merely by denying the common man the benefit of an unexpected drop in international oil prices which is akin to lazy governance. Oil prices are rising now & if domestic oil prices are increased, it would spur inflation & consumer angst while keeping prices stable would entail increase in fiscal deficit unless other tax avenues are suitably explored; clearly, the reduction in fiscal deficit was a result of an unexpected windfall due to a non-recurrable favourable international event & the Modi govt. had nothing to do with it & should not claim credit.

The govt. did keep inflation rate under 5% during its tenure unlike the UPA whose inflation record trended at around 9%; this was achieved by the favourable dip in international commodity prices – on which the Modi govt. had no hold - & by an anaemic increase in MSP (Minimum Support Prices) to farmers; if they do implement the Cost+50% pricing for farmers as promised in the last budget, inflation shall shoot up.

Electrification of Villages: India has 6.49 lakh villages & Modi claimed, in 2014, that it is the inefficiency of the Congress govt. that 18500 villages continue to remain in the dark. Flip the argument & you find that in 70 years about 6.3 lakh villages were electrified at an average of 9000 villages per annum & if the Modi govt. had run at the same pace the remaining villages would have been electrified in about 2years while it actually took about 4 years. Surely, these villages are in remote locations & the delay can be forgiven but running down opponents for the sole sake of propaganda cannot be condoned.

Achievements Modi should be Concerned about

Vigilantism: The hacking of Akhlaq in UP, Pehlu Khan in Haryana & the Hindu Yuva Vahini imposing morality codes in UP, creates a unease & societal schisms which could fuel violence & give space to vested organizations under the guise of “Gau Rakshaks” to become rent seekers. The govt. has till date treated these groups with kids' gloves which could be exploited by organizations like ISIS, Al-Qaeda & inimical foreign powers.

Key Institutions under Attack: Positions like the Lok Pal remain unfilled even after 4 years of the regime – a repeat of what happened in Gujarat when Modi was CM. Likewise, the govt. sought applications for 2 CIC (Chief Information Commissioners) positions in Sept’16 & has not filled the positions even as 2 more CICs have since retired & 3 more of a total of 11 are set to retire in 2018; clearly, these are attempts to weaken the RTI (Right to Information) act which has otherwise helped in enhanced transparency.

The Judge Loya case alludes to the possibility of the Judiciary under duress as buttressed by the 4 senior most judges of the Supreme Court who revolted against the Chief Justice on the issue of "fixing of the roster" - an euphemism for constituting benches favourable to the govt. - & called for an unprecedented press meet. Likewise, the trolling of journalists like Ravish Kumar & sharing of the morphed nude images of Rana Ayub is indicative of a fascist tendency of emasculating press freedom.

Even the decorum of Parliamentary proceedings has been severely compromised. Recently, in Mar’18, the vote of no confidence on the govt. was not debated ostensibly on the ground that the AIADMK & TDP members were protesting in the well of the house; 27 no confidence motions have been raised since independence & none suffered the ignominy of a non-debate. The reduction in the no of days the legislature is in session is another recent malady that denies people's representative the chance to raise an issue of public interest on the floor of the house. These are ominous portends for parliamentary democracy pleading for redressal.

Defence: India saw 4 defence Ministers in 4 years – Jaitley, Parrikar, Jaitley again & finally Nirmala which needless to say effected policy direction. Despite attempts to shift towards a G2G (Govt. to Govt.) contracts to outflank corruption allegations & accelerate procurement, the govt. has failed in its resolve to accelerate the modernization of the forces. Meanwhile, the Rafale deal is cast in a corruption cloud & debate on the same in parliament is stalled; while the UPA negotiated the aircraft at a per unit cost of Rs 526 crores with Transfer of Technology (TOT), the NDA govt. has closed the deal at Rs 1670 crore apiece – without TOT. The BJP claims advanced avionics as reason for the increased fare which is not backed by facts; in-fact the govt. has paid much higher than Rafale’s other clients -Egypt & Qatar.  Another intriguing question: Why are most defence contracts going to one Indian Industrial group whose financial position is precarious?

Surprisingly, Defence spend has dipped to 1.58% of GDP in 2017-18, the lowest since 1962 even as the Army Chief boasts that India is ready for a “two & a  half front” war which is a fallacy since his deputy, the Vice Chief told a Parliamentary Panel that only 8% of capital equipment is state of art & 68% vintage. Are we being fed rhetoric alone?

While “surgical strikes” on Pak, in 2016, as a response to the attack on an army camp at Uri, is touted as a sign of resolute policy, that it has not enforced deterrence  indicates otherwise; Pak continues to stoke violence in the vale.  Rhetoric can manage passions on the Indian mainland but continued adversarial acts by the enemy is reflective of lack of Indian “capacity” to inflict disproportionate pain which needs to be remedied.

Jobs - Pakoda economics: The Modi govt. rode to power on the promise of creating 2 crore jobs yearly & the assurance came a whimper with 8 core industries data available showing about 4.16 lakh new jobs in 2016-17. Modi famously, during a TV interview, cited pakoda sellers as new jobs created only to be ridiculed. Instead of accepting job losses – 14000 in L&T, 4500 in HDFC, 90000 in Telecom, 56000 in IT etc. apart from the jobless growth scenario, the govt. has meandered from showcasing “Mudra” to “Start-up India” to now claim the EPFO data growth by 31 lakhs in 6 months – Sept 17 to Feb 18 – as reflective of new jobs created. This is unlikely to pass muster since formalization of informal jobs post demonetization has forced many firms to register with the EPFO; former Finance Minister, Yashwant Sinha, avers that a firm with 19 employees would be in the informal sector & addition of 1 more employee pushes the company into the formal sector & all the 20 employees into formal sector employment records even while the actual addition is only 1 employee.

The PM claims that Rs 6 lakh crores was issued to 12 crore people under the “Mudra” scheme for self- employment to be countered by the Congress which claims that for 91% of the beneficiaries the average ticket size of loan was a mere Rs 23000/- - a mere tokenism that has failed to create jobs. 

 The “Start-up India” scheme was launched with a corpus of Rs 10,000 crores but only 90.6 crores has been disbursed till date indicating its failure; “Skill India” mission was discontinued after training 41.3 lakh people since the placement rate is at an abysmal 15% (6.15lakhs); the Minister for Skill Development & Entrepreneurship, Rajiv Prasad Rudy, would not have lost his job, in 2017, if his performance was seen as exemplary by the leadership.

Clearly, the govt. record on job creation is pathetic but is hell bent on inflating its achievements.

Economic Fugitives: UPA 2 was thrown out of power for what was seen as a monumental corrupt edifice & the Modi govt. was expected to chart a new course.  However, the fleeing of economic offenders like Vijay Mallya, Nirav Modi etc. sends across a dubious signal that the new govt. is no different & no action taken on the Panama papers, Paradise papers, Liechtenstein & HSBC account holders strengthens the assessment.

Conclusion:

Modi, definitely has the potential to be a transformational leader although his actions indicate incrementalism in a bid to sustain power. He should legitimately take credit for schemes like – Swatch Bharat, Ujwala, Ujala & the insurance scheme - but must learn to share credit with his predecessors for the JAM (Jan Dhan-Aadhar-Mobile) & the GST; after all Aadhar was launched in 2009 by the UPA & the telecom revolution was initiated, in 1995, by the Congress govt. to which the Vajpayee govt. added momentum vide the CPP (Calling Party Pays Regime) in 2003. JAM trilogy led to savings vide the DBT( Direct benefits transfer scheme) which incidentally was initiated by UPA II.  On issues like vigilantism & the troll army, the BJP should rethink just as they should on stratospheric propaganda to prevent the the recurrence of the consequence of the “Shining India” campaign of 2004.