Nepal Earthquake: Indian Humanitarian Efforts

The Indian Prime Minister is often pilloried for the excesses of his right wing brethren; perhaps, rightly so. However the remarkable alacrity with which Modi initiated relief efforts in neighbouring Nepal, hit by a devastating earthquake, has not got the kudos it richly deserved.

Earthquake hit our northern neighbour on Saturday & Indian relief material reached the country by the same evening. China responded the next day while international organizations like Oxfam have their people on board aircrafts yesterday to get a first-hand account necessary to plan the relief efforts.

While disaster is not the right time to discuss geo-politics, it is inevitable considering the high stakes game being played in the region. Chinese influence in Nepal has been steadily on the rise; Nepal along with Pakistan, & Sri Lanka, during the last SAARC summit, insisted on Chinese entry into the association, which India vetoed. While a change in Pak's stance is unlikely, the change of the govt. in Sri Lanka has brought about a more balanced outlook of that country towards India; it is Nepal’s turn, now, to be influenced.

China had always played the Nepalese royal family against India while the Nepali Congress Party has largely been pro- India. After the transition to democracy, China,  helped the communist rebels to strengthen their position in the state so much so that they landed in government. Chinese willingness to fund infrastructure, including the road linkage planned between Tibet & Nepal, would spell a further integration of Nepal into the Chinese embrace, much to India’s chagrin. Indian humanitarian effort is therefore a measure of the Indian soft power at play.

There are 1.25 lakh Indian retired Gorkha soldiers, currently settled in Nepal whose help is being sought to ensure last mile connectivity. The relief efforts of the Hindu Swayamsevak Sangh (HSS) – an affiliate of the Rashtriya Swayansevak Sangh (RSS) - & Baba Ramdev’s organization shall further buttress the efforts of the Indian government. Hopefully, this shall generate more goodwill for India, which shall force the hands of the country’s political masters to take a more pro- India stance.

Telecom: Why was Reliance Jio’s launch delayed?

Reliance Jio is poised to launch its telecom operations this year, 5 years after it acquired 95% of Infotel Broadband Services from Himachal Futuristic (HFCL).  Infotel had bid Rs 12848 crores, across all the 22 telecom circles, for 20MHz of BWA spectrum, in 2010; Reliance shall pay the fee post acquisition. The company strengthened its spectrum assets by participating in the subsequent auctions & bid for Rs 11054 crore in 2014 & Rs 10077 crore in 2015 to win additional spectrum in the 800 MHz & 1800 MHz bands. The total investment of the company in the telecom venture - spectrum & network - is huge at about Rs 70000 crores. The launch, however, has been repeatedly delayed & employee attrition made analysts sit up & take notice.

That begs the question: Why the delay? Reliance Jio started off with the advantage of being the only BWA operator with a pan India presence. Since voice was not allowed on BWA earlier, it attracted a spectrum usage charge (SUC) of 1% only against 3 - 8% paid by operators with spectrum in the 800, 900, 1800 & 2100 MHz range, a clear strategic advantage. Analysts expected Jio to launch immediately to take advantage of its dominant position. However it was not to be.

Airtel was the first to rollout 4G networks on the 2300 MHz band & experienced technological limitation of signal transmission & indoor coverage issues. Unlike the west where urban structures - largely made of glass - ensured easier signal transmission, the majoritarian use of concrete in Indian urban settings inhibited signal propagation. Reliance, too, must have encountered a similar experience. The weak customer acquisitions by Airtel in the 4 circles it launched 4G operations must have convinced Reliance that postponement is a better strategy.

The other problem was the nascent device ecosystem on 4G. In 2003, Reliance - in its earlier telecom avatar - had circumvented the device ecosystem issue on CDMA by acquiring handsets in bulk, at a huge discount, courtesy it’s legendary “negotiation skills” & covered themselves further through insurance. Costs of deploying such a strategy would be high today. 

Reliance, therefore, delayed the launch but secured a regulatory approval for voice too on BWA - despite protests by other operators who saw it as an unfair advantage. The decision to provide a seamless 4G coverage across the 3 frequency bands - it currently owns - came much later. There is one problem through: except for 4 circles – Mumbai, MP, Assam & NE – it does not have contiguous airwaves of 5 MHz in the 800 MHz band which needs correction either through “spectrum swap” with other operators or through govt. notification on “spectrum trading”; Reliance would prefer the former.

Reliance, tempered from its first experience, is trying a lean & mean organizational model to make its second coming into telecom a success. RIL (Reliance Industries Ltd) has been restructured into 2 divisions - Industrial & Consumer - & the Retail & Telecom ventures fall under the latter. A common CSD (Customer service & Delivery) department for its consumer division is planned giving its telecom venture the advantage of lower apportioned costs. A common HR function across Retail & Jio too has been formalized. The company’s e-commerce venture too could be tasked to sweat both the Retail & Jio assets. Sharing of network with Reliance Communications reduces costs further.

With structures in place the company could, tentatively, launch its operations in June 2015. For details on the likely entry strategy see

http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2015/04/telecom-what-could-be-reliance-jios.html

The entire country is now waiting with bated breath the launch of Reliance Jio.

Telecom: What could be Reliance Jio’s Entry Strategy?

After a long 5 year hiatus - between acquisition of Infotel Broadband services in 2010 & this day - Reliance Jio has successfully put its organization & network in place. The launch date of Reliance Jio services has been a matter of much speculation through. Grapevine has it that a launch, in June 2015, in 5 cities – Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Nagpur & Lucknow - is likely; the buzz has now shifted on the likely "entry strategy".  

Aggressive Voice Tariffs: Should the entry strategy be voice based or data based?

While the last few years have seen a spurt in data usage, only about 15% of Telco revenues accrue from data today. The potential, to grow to at least 40% of revenues is indisputable  for countries like the US, Japan, UK & even some  telcos in SE Asia have already breached the fig.

India today sells about 80 million smartphones per annum & has a smartphone base of about 150 million. The TRAI figs. by end Feb 2015: 960 million mobile users: 81 million mobile broadband users: & over 250 million internet users. It can thus be inferred that 700 million consumers are predominant voice users & in a high telecom penetration scenario Reliance has no other option but to launch an aggressive voice plan to churn customers from existing operators & gain an impressive revenue market share (RMS). This suggested strategy is buttressed by historical evidence too.

Circa 2009, Tata DoCoMo’s successful launch was courtesy a 1 paisa per second voice plan which transformed the industry forever from a Pay Per minute (PPM) to a Pay per second (PPS) industry, sacrificing “Granularity”, which otherwise helped the industry gain an incremental 15-18% in revenues. While bloody “price wars” continued & prices dropped, further to 1paise per 2 seconds (30 Paisa per minute), it helped Tata gain a decent share.  

The TRAI notification of reducing the mobile terminating cost paid to 14 PPM from 20 PPM & eliminating the same, altogether, for landline calls gives further leeway to Reliance Jio since it shall hit the revenues of its competitors. Reliance launch plan could take advantage of this opportunity. Recommended voice plans: Pay Rs 49/- per month & make all calls at 15 paisa per min (1 paisa per 4 sec); or Pay 69 & get unlimited on net calls free (to quickly create a community) & other calls at 15PPM.

Else the strategy should be to launch "Voice Free" & charge only for data. Just as Tata disrupted the data market by launching 2G data at Rs 49/- per GB, Jio could launch a similar priced product for 4G.

For the over 250 million data users a VoLTE plan would be in order. As per a Credit Suisse report consumers could get VoLTE call at 24 PPM while a pure voice call on legacy networks is at 70 PPM. Expect Reliance to drop data rates to disrupt the VoLTE space too. Also expect a bundled device strategy to target High ARPU data users who would be offered the following additional services. 

Social Networking: The user base, in India, of Facebook – the largest social media app - is about 115 million while Whatsapp – the largest messenger app - is about 70 million. The rise in social media & messenger services has hit the sms revenues of all operators; telcos, therefore, have been demanding a revenue share from OTT (over the Top) players like Facebook, Whatsapp, Skype, Viber etc. Such a demand is, however, unlikely to be conceded, since the concept of “net neutrality” is gaining ground; consumer activism in India represented through 1 million e-mails sent to TRAI condemning “Airtel Zero” might preclude OTT players from agreeing for a "revenue share" now.

“When you can’t beat them, join them” is an old adage. Kavin Bharti Mittal – son of Airtel promoter, Sunil Mittal had launched a messenger service “HIKE” in 2012 which has succeeded in accumulating over 20 million customers. Reliance too has joined the bandwagon by launching “Jio Chat” in April 2015. Expect an interesting battle on messenger services in future. Surprisingly, other Indian telecom players are yet to make their moves in this space; they are content launching Whatsapp or a Facebook pack alone which does ensure data revenues but denies them the long term advantage of accumulating the additional wealth of consumer information that could have been profitably monetized. Are they missing the plot?

Gaming on demand: South Korea’s SK telecom in June 2014 has launched UHD (Ultra High Definition) “gaming on demand” & “video on demand” products” UHD offers 4 times the clarity of traditional HD viewing. Unlike the current system, customers can install games directly into their smartphones or PCs & enjoy games using their smartphones by receiving real-time playing screen from the cloud server while the real game is being played. Expect Reliance to replicate the same.

Video streaming of sports & movies: Jio recently gave customers at Wankhede stadium a free experience of 4G in a game involving the IPL team “Mumbai Indians” – owned too, by the group. On entering the stadium, customers were prompted to give their name & mobile no, followed by which they received a verification code to log in. The company shall provide the same facility for all the 7 matches involving Mumbai Indians at the same stadium. The stadium has a capacity of 33500 which means by the end of this exercise, Jio would have not only tested load on its network but also secured data on over 2 lakh cricket crazy fans of Mumbai to be specifically targeted, later, with relevant content & services.

Jio has been ceaselessly working on strengthening its content portfolio. It bought Network 18 which owns Eenadu (all channels except Eenadu Telugu), CNBC TV18, CNN IBN, Colours etc. The company plans to launch “Jio Play” an app that shall stream all TV channels & also provide latent recording of 7 days. A "finance app" is also planned which perhaps shall leverage the synergies with CNBC TV 18 & Awaz.

The principle of live streaming can be extended further to include musical shows, events, sports, arti’s or sevas at places of worship which would be a good revenue spinner. Subscription based services like Music on demand (MoD) or Video on Demand (VOD) would also be deployed. Would this kill pure play DTH players? Likely. If reliance procures a MSO license & uses its fibre network to offer cable services it shall disrupt both the cable & DTH industries.

Plans to reduce “Digital Divide”: SK telecom had launched a year-long tour that includes world’s first “Virtual Reality Museum”- developed in partnership with National Museum of Korea – with the tour stopped at 20 locations in total, to bridge Korea’s digital divide through hands-on experience. Reliance should launch something similar.

The Dhirubhai Ambani International School, which provides education from LKG to Std. 12^th, must have over the years developed content & pedagogy which can be used to connect schools across the country - through a “digital school project” running on a Jio backbone - under a franchisee model. Going forward, it can potentially be dovetailed into the “skill India" project thereby creating a revenue stream under the “education” vertical.

The HN Reliance Foundation & Research centre’s expertise should be the backbone to build on the “Mobile health” strategies of the company.  Launching a mobile "Health app" could be the first step.

M2M (Machine-to-Machine) communications or Internet Of Things (IOT): The ubiquitous use of smart devices in every sector - health, energy, automotive, manufacturing, logistics etc.- is a discerning trend.  Consumers shall have the luxury of remotely switching on/off the A/C, microwave ovens etc. or keep a live watch of a child left in the care of nannies at home.  There are many exciting possibilities & it will be interesting to see if Reliance can imaginatively combine its assets in “reliance digital” stores with its M2M initiatives to get premium customers. Child protection devices like AT&T’s FiLiP can also be sold from these stores.

While it is technically possible through M2M for a farmer to remotely handle pump-sets for optimum water usage or maintain the parameters in eel rearing farms, such an initiative might not attract immediate traction in India; a rural push is therefore some time away.

Location based services: Over time Reliance Jio with huge customers acquisitions would be sitting on a wealth of data. It can then analyse mobile travel patterns & the consumption trajectories of individuals to offer location based relevant content & services. Advertisers would find “Mobile advertising”- that helps target a specific individual – a far attractive proposition as compared to the “shotgun” approach of TV advertising.

With close to a billion mobile users, the Indian mobile payments market has much untapped potential. The recent 25% stake acquisition by Alibaba’s Jack Ma in Paytm heralds such a possibility. Reliance should launch its own Payment gateway so that customers attracted  to retail areas through “mobile advertising” would be make to pay using its “cashless” mobile wallet thereby gaining another revenue stream. Just as Alibaba deploys AliPay, Jio can similarly use its own mobile wallet for making payments for goods bought on its e-commerce venture. Over time this opens up the possibility of applying for a banking licence too.

Apps: Reliance should initiate “youth connect” through conduct of “appathons” in colleges. The best apps selected need to be marketed in a "revenue share" format, thereby encouraging "crowdsourcing". Encouraging employees to create apps with promising ideas to be funded in a “start-up mode” shall yield good dividends; this model is successfully deployed in AT&T.

1.      Convert Phone 2 a Microphone: AT&T has developed an app that will let people use their Android and iPhone smartphones connected via a Wi-Fi or cellular data connection to a laptop, which when plugged into a speaker system, can convert the phone turns into a microphone. The app could be used by conference organizers, educational institutions, or hotels that host events, office holiday parties or Karaoke parties. It completely eliminates the need for a wireless speaker systems

2.      Troubleshooting: AT&T's engineers in Israel have worked closely with the company's Digital Care team to develop a new app to be used by home broadband users on their smartphones that will let them take a picture and instantly share it with a technician to seek help regarding troubleshooting network setups. Instead of technicians, blindly, trying to figure out whether cables are even hooked to the right ports, they'll now be able to see the setup. The technicians will also be able to send back pictures and diagrams through the app, which will show customers how they can fix their problems. This ensures quick troubleshooting – enhancing experience - & eliminates a technician visit – reducing costs.

The other strategies that jio could tap on are elaborated in my article whose link follows.

http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2015/04/telecom-what-should-telcos-do.html

Conclusion

Reliance in its first telecom entry made a splash through the “Monsoon Hungama” offer in 2003. Both critics as well as admirers are waiting to see if a similar magic shall be replicated once gain. With Mukesh Ambani at the helm, don’t rule out the magic.

Subhash Chandra Bose: The Portrait

The recent revelation of the snooping controversy on Subhash Bose’s family from 1948-1968 & accusations by the Bhagat Singh’s family too of a similar indiscretion by Indian intelligence has reignited the debate if the Nehru – Gandhi family was indeed paranoid of its political opponents. The accusation that the first family of India made an attempt through nominated liberal historians to rewrite history glorifying the family at the expense of other stalwarts resurfaces yet again. The BJP which has been making systematic attempts to revive the legacies of people such as Sardar Patel & Madam Mohan Malviya appears keen to appropriate Netaji’s legacy now, to achieve the Modi stratagem: “Congress Mukt Bharat”.

Historian Mridula Mukherjee has argued that snooping on political opponents is a common practice across governments & hence this controversy is preposterous. Others have argued that the snooping on Netaji’s elder brother Sarat Bose’s sons, Sisir Bose & Amiya Nath Bose – who was a part of the Left front in Bengal - might have been a call taken by the then Bengal Chief Minister, Dr BC Roy. Yet, others allege that it is inconceivable that this would have happened without the knowledge of the then Prime Minister, Nehru or his Home Ministers’ Sardar Patel or Rajaji. Conspiracy theorists have questioned the relationship between Nehru & B N Mullick - who went on to become the Chief of the Intelligence Bureau & stayed on in the same role till 1964 for a 15 year long period, rarely bestowed. Did Mullick like J Edgar Hoover - the legendary FBI chief - know too much?

Stepping aside from the controversy, let us review Subhash Bose’s contribution to the freedom struggle.

The Bose Story

Bose was born in 1897 at Cuttack, Orissa, then under the Bengal province. He was 9^th amongst 14 children & was a precocious talent. He trumped the ICS examination- standing 4^th- in 1921 but decided against serving an alien government. A protégé of CR Das, he quickly rose to become the President of the Youth Congress in 1924, General Secretary of the (Indian National Congress (INC) in 1927 & the Mayor of Calcutta in 1930. Gandhi’s plea for a dominion status before the Simon commission in 1927 – against his own wish for “Purna Swaraj” – created a rift between the two stalwarts. The rift widened when Bose arranged for a parade by volunteers in military uniforms during the INC session in Calcutta in 1928 forcing Gandhi to call it as Bertram Mills Circus". The failure of the 2^nd round table conference in 1931 – which saw the ignominy of Ambedkar & Gandhi fighting on minority rights instead of Indian freedom – depressed Bose who wrote in 'The Indian Struggle' - published in November 1934 - thus 'If the Mahatma had spoken in the language of dictator Stalin, Duce Mussolini or Fuhrer Hitler, John Bull would have understood and bowed his head in respect'. This statement sheds some light on his fascination with fascism & strong leadership. Was he moulding himself into one? Incidentally between 1931-38 Bose was on an European sojourn where he visited Italy & Germany too.

He returned to India in 1938 to became the President of the INC for two terms in 1938 & 1939. He defeated Gandhi’s nominee Pattabhi Sitaramayya in 1939 mainly with the support of Muthuramalinga Thevar- who controlled the southern votes - forcing Bapu to comment that "Subhash's victory is my defeat"; Bose, the stormy petrel with revolutionary leanings & trenchant ideological differences with Gandhi was, therefore, forced to resign in April 1939.

Bose formed the All India Forward Block, in 1940, along with Thevar – a tribute to his leftist leanings.  He too was imprisoned, in 1941, as part of the British suppression of the “quit India” movement. However, he escaped via Afghanistan to Russia to seek the latter's political & military support for India’s independence, betting on the Russian opposition to the British. However, chastened by their ambivalence he travelled to Berlin & succeeded in eliciting the support of Nazi Germany. There he formed the “Free Indian Legion” (FIL) – a force consisting of Indian soldiers who had surrendered to General Rommel in North Africa – & wanted to use this force to liberate India. He also launched patriotic broadcasts on “Free India radio” to enhance support for the movement.

FIL Members swore the following allegiance to Hitler and Bose: "I swear by God this holy oath that I will obey the leader of the German race and state, Adolf Hitler, as the commander of the German armed forces in the fight for India, whose leader is Subhash Chandra Bose". This oath gives an ominous impression that India would have become a dominion of Germany, had the Axis powers won in WW2. However, that was not to be for in 1942, Germans reverses & Japanese advances in the eastern flank convinced Bose to shift base to East Asia to continue his struggle. He secretly traveled to Japan, leaving the “Free India Legion” in the lurch. Was the act of desertion of the legionnaires, a case of moral turpitude or a small sacrifice necessary in the larger quest for Indian freedom?; or was it purely pragmatic?

While in East Asia, Bose took over the reins of the Indian National Army (INA), from Rash Bihari Bose, in 1943, & led it with distinction. With slogans like “Jai Hind’, “Dilli Chalo” etc., Bose succeeded in raising finances as well as morale. His “Give me Blood”, I will give you freedom” had lyrical similarities with Garibaldi’s clarion calls. He formed the provincial govt. in Singapore & in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands – renamed “Swaraj” & “Shaheed” - with Lt Col. A D Loganathan appointed as its Governor General. There are reports that the Japanese did not give freedom to Loganathan to govern which forced him to resign.  This begs the question: Would the Japanese have become the new rulers of India had the Axis powers won?

In 1944, the INA attacked Imphal & Kohima in the NE India along with the Japanese forces. The story of the valour of the INA reached the hinterland where people were waiting for a new ray of hope against the frustration of the entire Congress leadership being imprisoned. By 1944 the quit India movement had died a natural death & post the end of WW2 - In 1945 - it is inconceivable that the victor, Britain, would have left India. After all those who betted that a weakened Britain would leave India after WW1 were proved wrong. This inference was proved right when Clement Atlee - PM of Britain during the period 1945-51 – during his visit to India in 1956, when probed by Justice P. V. Chakraborty – then acting governor of Bengal - on the real reason behind the British decision to leave India, confessed that it was Bose’s military attack & the consequent naval mutiny in Bombay that convinced the British that the Indian armed forces could no longer be trusted to prop up the British & that forced them to leave India. Therefore, critics argue that Bose was the “true liberator of India”.

The Bose - Nehru Friendship

Bose, Nehru & Abul Kalam Azad formed the left wing of the congress & occupied between them the Presidentship of the Congress party between 1936 & 40. Bose & Nehru were personal friends since 1927 & jointly started the foreign cell within the Congress party to win international support for the movement; they fell apart on the latter’s support of fascism. Nehru’s nuanced diplomacy of supporting Bose’s “Purna Swaraj” resolution in 1927 forced Gandhi to support Nehru for Congress Presidentship in 1929 – perhaps, to break the Nehru – Bose stranglehold - & later on nominate Nehru as his successor. Of the leading lights of that time, Rajaji was widely speculated as Gandhi’s “chosen successor” till the early 40’s while Bose had the potential to mount a serious challenge to Gandhi or his “chosen one”; Sardar Patel, the other contender, was too much of a Gandhi’s loyalist to challenge his wishes.  Surprisingly, Nehru – the dark horse - ultimately secured the crown.

The Bose Legacy

Bose was a man much ahead of his times. He formed the Rani of Jhansi regiment headed by Capt. Lakshmi Sehgal, many years before the Indian army had an exclusive women regiment – a tribute to his progressive ideas. He was a strong votary of industrialization too. Despite his differences with Gandhi, it was he who addressed the latter as the “Father of our nation” in a national broadcast from Rangoon in 1944. Naming 2 regiments of the INA after Gandhi & Nehru show him as a large hearted man. However, some questions about Bose’s ideology persist

·         Was Bose’s support of fascism a genuine admiration or a strategic ploy to win support of the anti-British forces for liberating India?

·         Had the Axis powers won in WW2, did Bose have the capacity to make India Independent or would India have become a colony of the Japan or Germany?  Considering the atrocities committed by the Japanese in Manchuria, China or the extermination of Jews attempted by Nazi, Germany, the mere evaluation of the alternative leaves a chilling aftereffect.

·         Since Bose admired Kemal Ataturk of Turkey & as per certain critics believed in “authoritarian socialism for at least 2 decades after independence” would Bose have become the new dictator denying us the democratic values that we currently enjoy?

·         While Ataturk fought against the Allies powers & still formed an independent govt. could Bose have done the same?

·         Gandhi’s success in South Africa & India was courtesy fighting within a more humane British law; a fight for independence from the Japanese or the Germans would have invited a death sentence. Were we therefore better off fighting the British through non-violent means?

·          If Bose was captured would he have been treated as a war criminal which forced him to fake his death?

The Bose Death Controversy

The purported death of Bose in an aircrash in Formosa (Taiwan) in 1945 has remained clouded in a mystery. Three commissions of enquiry – Shah Nawaz Khan commission in 1956, Justice Khosla Commission in 1970 & Justice Mukherjee Commission in 1999 have been set up but the central govt – either of the Congress or the BJP regimes – have refused to declassify its contents citing a diplomatic fallout - likely deterioration in relations with friendly countries; if Bose did die in the crash then such a possibility is preposterous. Suresh Bose – Subhash’s brother & part of the Shah Nawaz Khan commission – gave a dissent note to the findings since no plane crashes occurred in Formosa at the time indicated. This alludes to a conspiracy; Subramanyam Swamy has indicated that the countries in question are the UK & Russia.

Researchers speculate that aircrash in Formasa was a smokescreen provided by the Japanese to allow Bose to escape to Russia where he believed that his own leftist leanings & the animosities between the Britain & Russia would help him negotiate better terms for the defeated Japanese as well as push for Indian independence. Bose was, however, arrested in Russia by Stalin & was incarcerated in cell no 45 of Yakutsk Prison in Siberia & was killed in 1956 on British request at the subtle insistence of Indian authorities.  Saugata Bose – a current TMC MP – the grandson of Bose has argued that merely because Churchill ordered Bose’s assassination in 1941, blaming the current Cameroon govt. for such an executive order would be fallacious; likewise blaming the acts of Soviet Union – which has already broken up in 1991 – would be equally naïve.

The Hindustan Times Journalist Anuj Dar - the founder of "Mission Netaji" - has done extensive research & written a book where he claims that Netaji died as "Gumnami Baba" or "Bhagwanji" in Sept 1985. Justice Mukherjee in an unofficial candid confession agrees with Anuj's assertion; that clip is freely available on the internet. If that is indeed true we are intrigued by the question: Why did Netaji live incognito? Was he wary of being branded as a war criminal?

Conclusion

To put an end to all the swirling controversy theories it is prudent that the Indian Govt. declassifies all the 100 files at the centre and the 64 files lying with the Bengal govt.  This shall be in line with the RTI (Right to Information) Act guidelines of declassification after 20 years & the Indian archive laws that mandate declassification after 30 years. This treasure trove of information would be handy material for students of history. It is pertinent that govt. stops arrogating to itself the right of censorship. Let the people of India take a dispassionate call based on evidence & information released.

Urge the govt. to release all the files immediately. India deserves to know what is in the last page of the life of the Indian “patriot of patriots” – Subhash Chandra Bose.

Telecom: What Should Telcos Do?

The spectrum auctions conducted in March 2015 have netted the government a cool Rs 1.1 lakh crores. The operators are required to pay 25-33% of the bid amount – based on the spectrum frequency - immediately & post a 2 year moratorium, pay the remaining amount in 10 equal instalments. The Top 3 operators - Airtel, Vodafone & Idea – account for 78%, while the Top 4 bidders- including Reliance Jio – account for 87% of the bid amounts. Critics have, therefore, argued that going forward, only operators with deep pockets can sustain in the auction game while weaker operators would be forced to either exit, work in shrunk geographies or attempt niche play. Perhaps, this shall help industry consolidation into a 6 player market.

Govt. intervention through notification of spectrum trade & sale rules could accelerate consolidation; else weak operators with strained balance sheets & their bankers would be forced to take a bloody haircut. Some of the critics are alarmed that while the bid largesse shall help the govt. balance its fiscal deficit, it shall have the unintended effect of upping call rates. Ravi Shankar Prasad, the Telecom Minister has scoffed at such a possibility & explained that a modest price rise of 1.3 PPM (Paisa Per Minute) could be affected while Rahul Khuller, the head of the Telecom regulator, TRAI, has pegged the fig. at a more reasonable 6 - 7PPM. Surely, both admit the inevitability of a price rise unless telcos find goldmines in other revenue streams.

Telecom firms have Technology playing a transformative role, silently threatening annihilation of existing business models. 
See http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2015/01/telecom-disruptors.html. 

The saving grace however is that disruptions inevitably help consumers & should incumbent operators transmute these disruptive forces into opportunities through effective strategies they could strengthen their pole positions. For some suggested “blue Ocean strategies see http://meetrk.blogspot.in/p/telecom-what-next.html). 

The following list is a further addition to the same.

Grow Voice Rate: The Generic Strategy

Telcos are joyously riding the wave of increasing data penetration & thereby data revenues while experiencing concerns on the voice side. They have tried to grow voice revenues by either reducing free minutes or increasing basic rate. Most of the operators today have a base rate of 1.7 PPS (Paisa Per Second). Incorporating the 6 - 7 PPM increase - which TRAI deems reasonable - shall increase the base rate to 1.8 PPS (Rs 1.08 per minute).  A basic rate of 2 paisa per second (Rs 1.20 per minute) within the next 6-8 quarters is a reality; incidentally, in 2009, before the launch of new operators, the basic rate was Rs 1/- per minute which combined with granularity ensured a realization of Rs 1.15-1.20/- per minute Thus 2PPS shall only bring prices back to the 2009 levels. Operators’ realizations would however be much lower due to the presence of discounted tariffs through STV (Special Tariff Vouchers).

Weaker players would continue to play the “price warrior” game & in such a quest have depleted their STV revenues. The Top 3 should, therefore, continue to offer aggressive STVs to ring-fence Hi- Value consumers & offer discounted tariffs to customers showing a propensity to churn, identified through “churn prediction” analytical models.

Invest in multichannel enablers:

Tech companies like Apple, Google, Microsoft etc. have used “retail” as a strategy to enhance “sensorial experience”, “demonstrate tech products”, as well as increase sales. 12% of apple’s sales in 2013 came from 415 stores in 14 countries. Customers “research online & buy offline” (ROPO) where the retail salesman plays the most important role to disseminate technical information & arrange for sale closure. Likewise customers could “research offline - in a store & purchase online” (ROPO) - to gain the benefits of lower prices. Operators should therefore create a rebound between offline & online by leveraging tech enablers like QR codes, NFC (Near Field Communication), BLE (Bluetooth Low Energy) & interactive kiosks. Operators should therefore strengthen their understanding of the device ecosystem. These stores would serve as fulfilment centres when IOT (internet of Things) takes off.

Launch segment specific products:

Kids: With 65% of Indians under 35 & fertility under 2.5 we are on the cusp of a baby boomer generation. Recent incidents of sexual assaults in Schools of Bangalore, clearly portends the need of “kids security products”. Operators abroad are ahead on the learning curve as they have already launched products for this segment.

AT&T‘s FiLIP is a wristwatch with GPS, Wi-Fi, and cellular technology designed to keep kids and parents connected  It is a voice watch - designed for kids aged 5 – 11years -  which parents can easily program with 5 contacts to communicate with the device. An emergency button triggers an automatic location beacon, ambient sound and call recording, and automatically calls the contacts established in the Mobile App. It also sends a push notification to the primary account holder. Currently it cannot call 911 emergency services. It is water resistant, controlled by an iOS/Android smartphone app that enables parents to call their kids, set Safe Zones, and communicate with kids via text message

Products for the Blind: India has a 15 million blind population who could be supported through tech innovations.

Verizon  has a product that integrates recognition & voice access tech. to market life-enhancing tools that provide accessibility and higher levels of independence to the blind and visually impaired customers like navigating an unfamiliar room, matching clothing or reading a menu at a restaurant. Velasense - a mobile application suite that uses the Verizon 4G LTE network and smartphones with advanced cameras and sensors - delivers real-time feedback to users about people, objects and surroundings, including text, colours, currency, barcodes, and familiar faces. Useful information can also be stored in the Verizon Cloud for playback on command. This will help the blind find new ways of engaging with others, and can enable greater access to education, employment opportunities and life-changing independence. The next generation of solutions may include a hands-free, audio-controlled headset that can operate like a "seeing digital assistant."

Surely products such as these cannot be afforded by all. But if the launch of LTE by operators is combined with the govt. investments on “Digital India” along with the CSR contributions currently mandatory under the company’s act, the blind can achieve true “freedom”.

Conclusion

Controversies need not be inevitable in a telcos’ quest for finding new revenue streams. Airtel, however, invited one - of violating “net neutrality” - when it launched “Airtel Zero”. The company has slammed such accusations with the following rejoinder by their CMO Srini Gopalan http://www.teleanalysis.com/resources/column/airtel-zero-is-similar-to-toll-free-services-srini-gopalan-14338.html. While the discussion paper on “net neutrality” is out & TRAI is trying for an early closure, it is certain that any attempts to reverse the growing international popularity of “net neutrality” is unlikely to succeed, especially when the principle has gained political & regulatory support both in the EU & the US.  Companies could, therefore, continuously replicate innovations being tried & tested by their counterparts abroad for “quick wins” on revenue enhancement while working ceaselessly on consumer insights to drive their own innovations. In the enduring telecom battleground, customer acquisitions shall be the focus in Category – C circles while the data revolution & the innovation opportunities that it spawns shall be the focus across all circles. Needless to say, the game has just begun.

Modi’s Foreign Policy: The Basic Tenets

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been at the helm of the affairs in New Delhi for over 10 months now & it is time to review his foreign policy credentials. Many observers, wrongly, assumed that Modi - without any governance experience at a national level – did not have the wherewithal to manage foreign policy; surely, they must, now, be surprised by his dexterity. That he was preparing for the role of PM for quite some time was well known but, perhaps, his intention to go down in history as an international statesman is a recent revelation. The foreign policy cell of the BJP & the Vivekananda Foundation deserve credit for being silent actors behind Modi’s foreign policy moves.

 

While Indian foreign policy has been characterized by a long tradition of bipartisanship & continuity, there is no denying Modi’s personal imprint:  getting 177 nations to support his plea at the UN (United Nations) to have Jun 21^st as the International Yoga day; & replacing “Panchsheel” with “Panchamrit” - announced during the BJP national executive in Bangalore recently being two pertinent examples. He has set a scorching pace for himself & the foreign policy establishment & anyone falling foul has been side-lined; stars have been lavishly rewarded too – S Jaishankar being appointed as the Foreign Secretary, a few days before his retirement is a case in point.

Modi is more business-like in his approach to foreign policy for he is known to dispense with diplomatic niceties to arrive directly to the point. The economic thrust in his diplomacy is equally palpable. Engaging the 30 million Indian diaspora- 7 million in the Middle East, 3 Million in the US, 0.8 million in Canada, 0.4 million in UK, 0.3 million in Fiji & 0.2 million in Australia, being the largest blocks – the 2^nd largest in the world after the Chinese diaspora, to create a pressure group in those respective countries to fulfil our foreign policy goals as well as attract them to invest in their motherland is another feature of his robust diplomacy. His rock star like meetings at such places & announcement to merge the PIO (People of Indian Origin) & OCI (Overseas Citizen of India) cards has therefore been welcomed. However, there is a wide delay between announcements & implementation & Modi should therefore concentrate on improving the efficiency of his government machinery to hasten his ideas into reality.

Modi increasingly seems to be modelling himself on Lee Kuan Yew – the former Singapore Prime Minister who died recently – who applauded the “peaceful rise of India” in 2007 but lamented in 2012 that it was a country of “unfulfilled greatness”.  Modi definitely has taken the right steps to resurrect India’s position that had dropped during the last 5 years courtesy policy paralysis of the previous regime & a slowing economy. Much more needs to be done  & he seems on track, guided by the following strategic foreign policy tenets.

Neighbourhood First Policy: Strengthen peace in the SAARC region

Modi started his innings as PM, in May 2014, inviting the heads of government of all SAARC nations for his swearing in. Perhaps, he appears to be guided by Vajpayee’s advice to incoming foreign minister, Yashwant Sinha, in 2002, to focus on India’s neighbourhood, since India’s aspirations of being a world leader would be met only after the country emerges as a leader in the region. For details see the following link

http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2015/04/narendra-modis-foreign-policy-saarc.html

Checkmate China; Harness power of the quad: US, India, Australia, Japan

Modi has a great personal equation with the Japanese PM Shinzo Abe; Modi is only one of the 3 leaders Abe follows on twitter. Japan’s equation with China is fraught over concerns over the rise of Chinese nationalism, dispute over the Sankaku islands & expansionist designs - including domination over maritime routes. Japan is therefore seeking an alternative to investments in China; Modi tapped this latent urge to help drive a commitment of $35 billion investments into India over 5 years.

Undeterred by his own visa refusal by the US - when he was Chief Minister of Gujarat - Modi earnestly tried to mend relations with the US, on a downturn because of the differences over the nuclear deal & the Devyani Khobragade case. He broke ice with Obama when he visited New York last year for the UN meet & early this year achieved the coup of getting Obama visit India a 2nd time – the first by any US President – as the chief guest of the Republic Day parade – an honour denied to previous US Presidents. The civil nuclear deal pushed through & the “vision document” released at the end of the summit has the potential of putting India firmly in the US camp. Modi must have betted, however, that just as Israel has the unabashed support of the US in the Middle-East, Indian concurrence to be the “US pivot in Asia” would give the BJP the leeway to pursue its Hindutva agenda. Obama’s pronunciations at the Siri fort auditorium on secularism & “article 25 of the constitution” clearly indicates that the US would be keen to partner India but not at the expense of secularism. 

Modi is the first PM to visit Australia in 28 years; the last was PM Rajiv Gandhi in 1986. For the first time, Australian and Indian Prime Ministers have made reciprocal visits in the same year- within 2 months.  Needless to say this was long overdue especially when Australia is an important player in the Nuclear Suppliers Group & perhaps a key member in our own “string of pearls” strategy to circumvent China. Defence co-operation agreement has therefore been inked between the two sides.

ACT East: Strengthen Relationships with ASEAN

PM Narsimha Rao (1991-96) is credited with the “Look East” foreign policy during his tenure which has evolved into the “Act East” policy now. Modi visited Myanmar in Nov 2014 as part of the multilateral engagement with the 18 member East Asia Summit (EAS) & the 10 member ASEAN- India summit. India was inducted into the forum in 2005 to counter China but the former’s ambivalence to take an assertive position vis a vis the latter has baffled other members. Modi did a course correction by mentioning the need for universal respect for the “UN law of the seas” (UNCLOS) in South China Sea – an oblique reference to China’s belligerence in the region & its territorial & trade disputes thereof – that gladdened many hearts. 

Modi intends to follow the Chinese example of “infrastructure diplomacy” with “Industrial diplomacy”; Union Budget 2015 announced an SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) - to be housed in the commerce & Industry ministry - with 51% private sector participation to set up Industrial zones in Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia & Vietnam. This policy shall help Indian industry to procure inputs at competitive rates & also ensure development of the Indian North Eastern States with transport infrastructure through Kaladan Multi-modal Transit and India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway which is expected to be ready by 2016 

The quick fire visits by the President, Foreign Minister & the NSA to Vietnam & the defence co-operation agreements signed thereof is but another vector to contain China.

Going forward, India should accelerate efforts to join APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) & work towards an early conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) with ASEAN for greater trade gains

Strengthen Maritime security

Countering the Chinese “Maritime silk route” is critical for India’s security as much as to retain dominance in the Indian Ocean. Therefore the visit to Seychelles, Mauritius & Sri Lanka and establishment of listening stations. Getting a favourable govt. installed in Maldives is an urgent need & perhaps is WIP (Work in Progress)

Visit to Fiji - the first by an Indian PM after Indira Gandhi’s visit in 1981, 33 years ago - & meeting the 12 leaders of Pacific island republics was as much an engagement with the Indian diaspora in this region as much as it was to expand our strategic scan into the Pacific. India should in the medium term be the lord of the seas from the Persian Gulf to the Malacca straits - dominating the expanse from East Africa to South East Asia.

Engage BRICS, EU & Africa

The BRICS meet helped establish the "New Development Bank" with a base capital of $50 billion – contributed equally by the 5 promoters with equal voting rights – based in Shanghai, as a counterweight to the Bretton Woods institutes - World Bank & the IMF. A $100 billion Contingency Reserve Arrangement (CRA) was created to provide additional liquidity protection to member countries during balance of payments problems. China contributed 41%, Brazil, India, and Russia 18% each & South Africa 5%. Just as 7 Latin American nations formed “Bank of the South” or BancoSur to fund regional development and social protection which supplanted the influence of the Bretton Woods institutes in Latin America, NDB has got the same transformational potential.

Visit to Brazil gave Modi an opportunity to engage with Latin American nations too.

Going forward Modi proceeds to Europe & Canada this month. His interest in engaging the EU had a false start since Brussels did not heed the Indian external affairs ministry’s request for dates. Critics argue that the EU is under pressure from Italy due to the unresolved Italian Marines issue. Modi, therefore, travels to France & Germany to complete this leg his European engagement where his pronunciations shall be keenly watched & dissected.

India – African Union Summit in planned for October this year; Heads of all the 54 African nations are invited to this Summit. China’s influence in Africa is substantial & this meet is critical to raise our stakes in the “Dark Continent”.

Surprisingly no efforts have been made till now to meet any of the GCC (Gulf Co-operation Council) members who are responsible for India’s energy security.

Conclusion

Modi has succeeded in giving a new dynamism to Indian Foreign policy for he has engaged with 94 countries already. While the economic & security thrust of his diplomatic overtures is palpable, he will be constrained by the contrasting policy goals of engaging as well as containing a rampaging China. However, with lieutenants like Ajit Doval as the NSA & Jaishankar as the Foreign secretary Modi can be expected to achieve more strategic goals in the near future.