North Korean Chairman, “Little Rocket
Man”, Kim Jong Un met “Bigger Button”, Donald Trump, at the Capella resort,
Singapore on 12th June’18 & signed an agreement - on denuclearization of
the Korean peninsula. The joint statement, low on specifics, without milestones prompted critics to
conclude that Kim won round 1; Trump suspended US- South Korean war games to
instil trust while Kim conceded nothing even while Trump proclaimed that Kim
has promised to destroy a missile engine testing site though not listed as part
of the agreement. Trump admirers,
hyperbolically though, liken the meet, to the Mao-Nixon meet, of 1972, that
transformed global geopolitics. US Vice
President, Mike Pence & NSA, Bolton earlier spoke on the “Libyan model” to
settle the North Korean issue, clearly, indicating that the US was not keen on
talks but was forced into it by its ally South Korea; President Moon Jae In of South
Korea, desirous of peace, opened up channels of
communication with Kim who responded by agreeing to field a joint Korean team - which marched under a “unification flag” depicting the peninsula, during the
Pyeongchang winter Olympics - in Feb’18, & the opening ceremony was graced by Kim’s sister Kim Sol-Song accelerating goodwill.
Brief History of North Korea
North Korea has a military of 1.2
million – comparable to India - & is a nuclear & missile power; at $40
billion, her GDP is lower than the Indian annual military spends & that explains
the poverty of its citizens. The “hermit kingdom” thus leads a recluse life
with its citizenry denied access to the world in a bid to protect the dynastic regime.
Japan colonized Korea in 1910 &
post the loss, in WWII the peninsula was divided, across the 38th
parallel, amongst the victors - North Korea supported by the Soviet Union
& South Korea supported by the US; Kim’s
grandfather – Kim II Sung – the dictator for North Korea, prompted by the USSR
invaded the South on June 25th 1950, to be resisted by the South
with US support; the North forces were driven back by the US forces under
General MacArthur & as they approached the Yalu river – the dividing line between
North Korea & China – Mao’s China entered the war theatre & the joint
forces repulsed the Southern forces to the 38th parallel when an
armistice – not a peace treaty - was pronounced on July 23rd 1953
creating a 2 mile wise “demilitarized zone” that still exists; thus the two Korea’s
are technically at war even today which the Moon-Kim meet has brought to an end
on April 27th 2018 vide the “Panmunjom declaration”; reconciliation is a first step, perhaps,
leading into an association & eventual reunification.
The Key players in the conflict have
different strategic goals to achieve & it will be interesting to see how
the same pans out
South Korea: President Moon knows that in the event of a war, the South
could be the first casualty – due to its proximity to the North – although North
Korea can inflict damage much beyond by launching nuclear tipped missiles that can reach Guam,
Atlanta & California in the US or Japanese territories. The US has a
military base in South Korea hosting about 28000 US soldiers & installed
THAAD missile defence system, in Sept ’17, which led to local protests. The
missile defence system is placed on a company - Lotte group - land & China
sensing threat from the same has ordered closure of all 74 Lotte stores in
China & prompted its citizens to shun South Korean products – impacting trade
- banned Chinese tour groups from visiting South Korea - effecting
tourism income - & cancelled appearances of South Korean pop & movie
stars; this is a signal to all the countries in the region – including Japan –
not to get the THAAD system installed in their territories & the economic pain that could be inflicted if her warnings go unheeded.
Moon – the pragmatist – wants peace
& is nudging a reluctant US towards his goal & proposed a Noble Peace
Prize to imperious Donald Trump as a bait to get his endorsement of the peace initiative; Trump, facing
flak for his impetuosity & a downward spiral in approval ratings at home &
the Mueller probe gaining stream and desperate for a policy win appears amenable to
the same; he could squeeze the issue dry during the mid -term elections poised for
Nov. this year.
China: The People Republic of China had proposed a “freeze” for a “freeze”
– freeing of North Korean Missile & Nuclear tests in lieu of the freeze of
the South Korean – US joint military exercises. After the breakup of the Soviet
Union, North Korea lost its ideological mentor & was propped up by China to
checkmate US & its allies – Japan & South Korea – by surreptitiously
offering them missile technology just as they supported Pak – by offering them
nuclear technology – to constrain India. Benazir Bhutto, in 1993, then Prime
Minister of Pakistan, exchanged nuclear designs for missile blueprints with
North Korea completing the proliferation picture.
Surprisingly, Kim did not demand
that the US vacate the South Korean military bases despite Chinese prodding in a
bid to expand her geopolitical ambitions post the US withdrawal. Clearly, Kim
does not want to depend on one benefactor – China- alone & wants to open up
to the West – especially the US to enhance his options even while President Xi
of China has forced Kim to meet him twice before the Kim- Trump meet & by
making arrangements for Kim to fly to Singapore in an “Air China” flight reiterated
that China cannot be side-lined. China is wary of the warming US- North Korean ties
& the possibility of the US using North Korea as a strategic balancer in
the region to hedge against the rise of China; she is however, chary of the possibility
of the North Korean citizens crossing the borders into China in the event of a
Korean conflict. In short China desires peace in the Korean peninsula with US
withdrawal & North Korea continuing to remain a vassal state.
US: The sole superpower signed agreements in 1994 during Clinton’s
presidency & in 2005 under POTUS George Bush only to see them dissipate
because of non-compliance. In 1994, when
North Korea threatened to exit the NPT, the Clinton administration’s “agreed
framework” promised aid in lieu of nuclear freeze only to see it unravel by
2002 & North Korea moved out of the NPT in 2003 to restart its nuclear facilities
thereby inviting sanctions again. 6 party talks involving the US, China,
Russia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea followed & a deal was struck in
2005 only to break down by 2009 with disputes on verification.
The US is now insistent on a “Complete,
Verifiable, and Irreversible Denuclearization” (CVID) & having annulled the
Iran deal struck by President Obama has denied North Korea a similar deal & might not offer them a deal offered to India, in 2006, either.
North Korea: In an opaque regime, Kim is viewed as paranoid character who got his mentor, uncle Jang Song Thaek, executed, in 2013 & his half-brother Kim
Jong Nam, killed, in Malaysia, in 2017,in a nerve agent attack as punishment for
plotting with China to topple his regime; that explains his distrust of China. He
carried his own lavatory to Singapore since he did not want to leave even his
poop in foreign shores & the presence of his sister switching Trump’s pens
to his own while signing the agreement buttresses the assessment. That he
replaced 3 of his senior generals seen as hardline with youngers moderate ones indicates
that he aspires to genuinely open up to the west to expand his options beyond
China & wind down sanctions. His nuclear test site at Punggye Ri was destroyed
in May’18 while testing & he blew up the entire site in front of world
reporters to accomplish a fait accompli in a bid to buttress his credentials.
It is possible that post the US
invasion of Iraq, in 2003, that led to Saddam Hussein ouster on the illusory pretext
of the presence of WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) & NATO forces killing Muammar
Gaddafi, of Libya, in 2011,post his agreement to freeze the nuclear ambitions,
the North Korean regime is wary & will stop at nothing to protect the regime. It will
be interesting to see how the US reconciles to Kim’s likely demand to
retain at least some nuclear weapons with delivery systems for regime
preservation; mere "security guarantees" might not suffice.
Conclusion:
Kim would want to maintain some
nuclear arsenal with delivery systems as insurance for his regime & Trumps
public pronouncements on “phased denuclearization” at variance with Pompeo’s CVID
could help in taking the talks forward. Kim has initiated reforms at home in
agriculture & industry & perhaps would be keen to follow the fellow
Communist countries – China & Vietnam - model of reforms but with a single
party dominance & western nations could help with investments going
forward. The US shall not vacate the military bases in South Korea even as she gets
a foothold into the North due to the mistrust between North Korea & China on
the coup issue.
As Trump conceded that the process of
achieving the objective would take close to a decade. Reality TV relies on
attracting eyeballs & the Trump-Kim surreal show did just that bringing two
tempestuous unpredictable characters to shake hands even while their deputies
wring their hands to arrive at a consensus that satisfies conflicting aims of
several nations.
