What Military Reforms does India Need?

 

India witnessed an, avoidable, ugly verbal public spat between the Indian Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) – General Bipin Rawat & the Indian Air Force (IAF) Chief RKS Bhadauria, in July, 2021. General Rawat who hails from the Indian Army said ”The air force continues to remain a supporting arm to the armed force. Just as artillery & engineers support the combatant arms of the army”; the Air Chief disagreed with a subordinate role for the Air force. The CDS is expected to be an impartial arbitrator while designing the “Integrated Theatre Command” operational structure & the aforementioned statement was best avoided. No wonder, while the US introduced Theatre operations in 1986, Russia in 2008, China in 2013, it is still work in progress in India, with each wing, of our armed forces, unfortunately, busy protecting its own turf.

There is also the problem of the Infantry division within the army playing “big brother” to the artillery & armour divisions.  Both India & the US have a similar Armed forces strength of 14 lakhs; while the former - a global power, understandably,  has 41% of its manpower in the Navy + Marine core, India, a regional power, had disproportionate manpower locked in the Army at 83%.

Nos in Lakhs	India		US
Army	12	83%	4.9	35%
Navy	0.55	4%	3.36	24%
Marine Core		0%	1.96	14%
Coast Guard	0.2	1%	0.42	3%
Air Force	1.7	12%	3.36	24%
Armed Forces	14.45	100%	14	100%

 US data from Council of Foreign Relations https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/demographics-us-military

In 2015, neighbouring China initiated Military reforms & its army, today, accounts for less than 50% of the total armed forces size of 21.85 Lakhs & further rationalization is underway. Contrast that with the Indian response of increasing the size of its Army, after the Chinese ingress at Depsang, in 2013. Ingressions continued at Chumar in 2014, Doklam in 2017, & Galwan, Gogra, Hot Springs, & Pangong Pso in 2020.

Should India reduce the size of its army?

(1)Indian Army accounts for 55 -57% of overall Defence spends. Russia which has a land border of 20,241 Kms, defends it using a 3.5 lakh strong Army, while India, having a smaller 15200 Kms land border, has an army over 12 lakhs.

Rs (Crores)	2017-18	2018-18 RE	2019-20(BE)	2017-18	2018-18 RE	2019-20(BE)
Army	154655.2	156628.1	166379.8	56.7%	55.5%	55.1%
Navy	38833.63	41685.91	45368.14	14.2%	14.8%	15.0%
Airforce	62310.79	63875.6	68948.88	22.9%	22.6%	22.8%
DGOF	650.85	1276.5	934.63	0.2%	0.5%	0.3%
DGQA	905.76	1023.79	1213.66	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%
R&D	15203.04	17610.38	19021.02	5.6%	6.2%	6.3%
Total	272559.3	282100.2	301866.1	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
DGOF	Director General of Quality Assurance
DGQA	Director General of Ordnance factories
R&D	Research & Development

From the Ministry of Defence Annual Report Page 16

These figs include Revenue plus Capital Expenditure; excludes pensions & Ministry of Defence (MoD) expenses.

The argument that India lies in a troubled neighbourhood with both Pakistan & China as foes, might not hold as Russia too is logged in a fight with Japan in the East, NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) in the West &an unstable Central Asia & Caucasus in its South West backyard.

(2)India spends 26% of Defence budget on pensions; rationalization of manpower can help reduce pension outgo. Equip a leaner force better & invest disproportionately on technology for greater bang for the buck.

	2017-18	2018-18 RE	2019-20(BE)	2017-18	2018-18 RE	2019-20(BE)
MoD(Misc.)	15144.57	16318.48	17065.12	4%	4%	4%
Revenue Expenditure	182121.42	188118.1	198485.76	48%	46%	46%
Capital Expenditure	90438.39	93982.13	103380.34	24%	23%	24%
Pensions	91999.58	106775.14	112079.57	24%	26%	26%
Total	379703.96	405193.85	431010.79	100%	100%	100%
From the Ministry of Defence Annual Report Page 16 RE: Revised estimate BE: Budget estimate MoD: Ministry of Defence

 

(3)As per a Rand Corporation report, Russian spends on Navy & Air force are higher than Army; likewise, the 17% spend on Aerospace Defence forces (Merged with the Air Force in 2015) – which operates Russian Military satellites & Plesetsk cosmodrome – indicates a disproportionate focus on “asymmetric warfare” away from conventional theatres of land & water for competitive advantage - a strategy India ought to copy.

Russia (Rand Corporation Report 2019)	% of Defence expenditure
Army	15%
Navy	25%
Air Force	24%
Strategic Missile Forces	5%
Aerospace Defence Forces	17%
Others & Multiservice	14%

 

China too has launched the “Rocket force” – to manage strategic missile operations - & “Strategic Support Force” – for managing the Cyber, Space, electronic & Psychological warfare, as part of Military reforms.

(4)As per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, while India spends $72.9 billion, 2.9% of GDP, on defence – the 3^rd largest in the world – against China (1.7% of GDP), UK (2.2%), and France (2.1%). Saudi Arabia’s disastrous performance in the Yemen conflict despite spending 8.4% of GDP indicates that higher spends does not necessarily lead to better outcomes. Saudi is also the largest arms importer in the world – a sordid record which it shares with India – indicating the need for a better strategy, including indigenization.

(4)While Russia spends $61 billion – the 4^th highest in the world - less than India’s $72.9 billion, it is rated the 2^nd biggest in firepower behind the leader - the US.

Russia has been accused of interfering in the elections of EU (European Union) nations & the US – a reflection of his "cyber" capabilities & the ability of its intelligence agencies to penetrate political parties in other nations to run “influence” operations. Its “Aerospace Defence Forces” & “Missile Defence Forces” that provide additional teeth have been mentioned earlier. Despite Russia spending less than India, none dare attack the country, fearing a deadly reprisal consequent to its technological superiority. Replication of the Russian playbook a sane strategy – more so since they have been grandmasters of diplomatic chess.

The evolution of war:

Alexander, in the 4^th Century BC, led land forces in his world domination sojourn; with improvement in ship building activities, over the last millennium, launch of naval forces followed which aided colonization activities of countries like Portugal, Spain, England, France, Holland etc. Wright brothers flew the first Aeroplane in 1903 & by WW I airforces made their entry.

World War II saw armour innovation in the form of German Panzer Tanks & their famed "blitzkrieg" strategy. The theatre of war evolved & the US, surprisingly, won the 1991 Gulf war, against Iraq, in days - unlike the "mother of all wars" that Saddam Hussain promised  - due to its “air power” & “network centric warfare”. The recent Azerbaijan victory over Armenia, in Oct -Nov 2020, was on account of cleverly using drone warfare; in the 1991 & 2020 conflicts tanks looked like sitting ducks. It is likely, that Future wars shall be fought, from afar, without soldiers needing to cross their national borders.

Israel bombed Iran's nuclear facility via an airforce strike in 1981; circa 2010, it disabled 1000 of the 5000 centrifuges to derail production of enriched uranium, needed to make a nuclear bomb - a process repeated again in 2020-2021 revealing its Israeli strides in Cyber warfare. Closer home, in 2020, a cyber-security breach, attributed to the North Korean group Lazarus, was detected at India’s Kudankulam nuclear reactors, perhaps to steal thorium based nuclear reactor technology that India is developing.

As per the Maharashtra Energy Minister, Nitin Raut, the Oct 12 2020 Mumbai power outage suggested a possible cyber-attack traced to malware from China, UK & other places; he announced ban on Chinese equipment henceforth. These incidents could be linked to the Indo-China Ladakh clash which as per a New York Times report quoting a Cyber security firm "Recorded Future": “a message from Beijing about what might happen if India pushed its border claims too vigorously”

Similarly, the forced shut down of the National Stock Exchange on Feb 24^th 2021, surprisingly, due to simultaneous glitches detected in the leased lines provided by both the Telecom providers, evokes suspicions of a “foreign hand”.

It is surprising how an IT superpower like India has less than adequate Cyber warfare capabilities.

Stunned by the Chinese Anti satellite(ASAT) weapon Test in 2007, India as per Ashley Tellis, in a Carnegie Endowment for International peace, article titled “India’s ASAT Test – An Incomplete Success” on April 15th 2019, conducted a similar hit in Feb 2019 while failed but achieved success later in Mar 2019. He warns however that China has surged ahead beyond lethal ascent interceptors or co-orbital attack satellites - with a potential to produce debris & consequent international condemnation as it affects other orbiting satellites, even of friendly nations too - to use of advanced ground based directed energy weapons – lasers or high power microwave systems as alternatives. Low energy lasers can damage the electro optical or infrared sensors effective against most of Indian satellites in low earth orbit.  Ground based high energy lasers or space based microwave systems can permanently destroy the electronic circuitry of systems without creating unwanted debris associated with a physical collision. China is pursuing co-orbital service satellites that manipulate their trajectory or physically damage them by mechanical means - such as robotic arms rendering the spacecraft inutile to its possessors. China has the capability to target India’s master control facilities – other nodes in its telemetry, tracking & control network – through both space based jamming & precision air & missile strikes or destroy space platforms through high altitude nuclear explosions. China has been developing “asymmetric” counter space technologies to target US operational dependencies, which their strategists believe reside in inordinate reliance on space for their conventional military success. India must therefore develop an effective space situational awareness & operationally responsive emergency space launch capabilities, space deterrence strategy & space doctrine, he concludes.

Conclusion

The theatre of war has evolved into the Cyber, Space, Electronic & Psychological warfare domains, while India is still reliant on a manpower centric army accounting for 83% of the total armed forces of 14.45 lakhs. The Global superpower, US, meanwhile, only has a 14 lakh armed forces of which Army is 4.9 lakhs (35%) only; the corresponding figures for Russia are 10.14 lakhs & 3.5 lakhs (34.5%) respectively.  Russia, like India, is located in a troubled neighbourhood but spends only 15% of its Defence budget on the Army while we spend about 55%. Our pension expenses are  about 26% of the total Defence expenditure & reduction of army's manpower shall aid its control.

The US – India –Japan – Australia –  Quad grouping is largely a "Maritime partnership" which needs India to enhance its Naval spends to at least 25% of the defence budget, against 15% now, just like Russia. Focus on submarines, some of them permanently deployed in the South China Sea, shall be the key.

An IT superpower like India should quickly enhance its cyber warfare capability through greater university & private sector connect. ISRO’s (Indian Space Research Organization) success should be used to lure brilliant minds into space research & creation of Anti-satellite ASAT weapon systems using laser, microwave & robotic technologies. Creation of “asymmetric warfare” techniques rather than investment on higher manpower is critical to enforce deterrence.

Rationalization of the army to remove fear in the Navy & Airforce of being swamped by the much larger Army, in the proposed “joint theatre commands” might be a preferred option.  It is important to first get our Joint Forces doctrine out, reduce the size of the army, enhance the size of the navy, and build our Cyber, Space,  Electronic & Psychological warfare capabilities before shifting to the joint theatre command structure.