Imran Khan Niazi: From the Cricket Pitch to Prime Minister of Pakistan

After scorching the 22 yard cricket pitches, during his international cricket career, spanning about 22 years, with his “all-rounder” exploits – winning the world cup in 1992 being his crowning glory - Imran Khan retired from cricket to start PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf) Party in, 1996, & after 22, rather, inglorious years, succeeded in becoming the PM of Pakistan. In the process, a Casanova, with a penchant for blondes & a liberal has transformed into a rosary carrying devout Muslim hobnobbing with the Taliban, earning the sobriquet “Taliban Khan”. Imran’s 2^nd wife of 10 months, Reham Khan, in her tell all book, whose excerpts were released on the eve of the elections, portrayed him as Janus faced - a narcotic addict, bisexual, misogynist playing sexual favours within his party, a depraved individual with many illegitimate children including 5 in India - that, perhaps, dented but did not damage his electoral prospects fully. Khan’s 3^rd wife & his spiritual guide, Bushra Riaz Watoo AKA “Pinky Pirni” – “Pinky” being her nick name & “Pirni” since she is apparently a Sufi mystic – whom Imran allegedly married on 1^st Jan 2018, kowtowing to some divine apparition revealed to her,  will now be the first lady of Pak.

Pak’s infamous former ISI Chief – Hamid Gul – is widely believed to have orchestrated Imran’s entry into politics & the latter became the “chosen one” of the Military in 2018, to become PM. The Military doctored the electoral pitch by getting the judiciary to unseat & disqualify Nawaz Sharief from the position of PM & later jailed him & his daughter, Maryam, on allegedly trumped up charges. Later they prodded many of PML –N (Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz) party-men, to shift allegiance to PTI, broke up MQM – a party of Indian immigrants to Pak post partition- in its stronghold, Karachi & controlled & censored the media, helping PTI secure about 118 seats in a 272 elected member assembly.  With neither the PML- N nor the PPP (Pakistan People’s Party) likely to extend support to the PTI, the 50 member “others” would become an important constituency & expect the Military to work on them to help the “chosen one”. The lack of a majority seems a strategic attempt – by the Military – to keep a mercurial, Imran in check to prevent a Nawaz – another of the Military’s creation of the 1980’s –redux.  As expected, the opposition alleged rigging but might not paralyze governance with street protests, like Imran did, post losing the 2013 elections, for the lack of critical military backing. Imran termed the recent polls as “the fairest in Pak history” even as he promised to provide assistance to the opposition to investigate instances of electoral fraud which in short is nothing but good optics to obfuscate criticism.

Imran’s public address vide a video link claiming victory even before the Election Commission verified & notified the complete results – largely focussed on his vision for Pak on 3 broad areas

(1)Governance Model: Re-create an Islamic republic of Pakistan founded on the Prophet’s teachings & implemented at Medina to take care of the downtrodden including the widows & the poor. This shall appeal to his core conservative constituency. Promise to safeguard the interest of ordinary citizens & enforcing accountability for all is an extension of campaign rhetoric which never goes out of fashion.

(2)Economic Policy: A neo liberal economic thrust - to extricate Pak from the economic mess – by improving ease of doing business to appeal to the Pak diaspora to invest & create jobs even as the country takes advantage of CPEC(China Pak Economic Corridor). He promised to safeguard tax revenue & decrease govt. expenses

(3)Foreign Policy:  Focus on strengthening relations with China, envisioning open borders with Afghanistan, reset of relations with the US from being one sided to one based on mutual benefit, improving on the time tested relations with Saudi Arabia to resolve their inner tensions & improvement of relations with India based on enhancing trade along with addressing the core issue of Kashmir & attendant human right violations in the vale.

Foreign Affairs is the preserve of the Army & when Nawaz tried an independent furrow he was cut down to size by the Pak Military; aware of an Army veto, Imran is likely to tread a tutored line on foreign policy. Therefore, India might not be amused at the Kashmir reference & hence a rapprochement between the two countries is unlikely especially since an anti-Pak rant could emerge as an important poll issue during the Indian Parliamentary elections poised 6-9 months away. Imran’s vision of “Open Borders” with Afghanistan – reminiscent to those in the European Union - is interesting; the Pashtuns – who constitute a majority in Southern Afghanistan & Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan - have a historical angst against the colonial legacy of the Durand line – agreed in 1896 - the line of division between the two countries.  Imran is a Pashtun in a country dominated by the Punjabis in all spheres including the army.

Imran would order conversion of the PM & Governor houses into hospitals or colleges to gain goodwill & settle down to the task of hard negotiations with the IMF for a bail-out package especially since Saudi Arabia or China are unlikely to throw a life-line. This might include a devaluation of the rupee, further opening up of the economy & other reforms that might hurt vested interests; enhancing tax revenues is never easy & even if he cuts non-military spends, he would create further enemies. Expect him to be busy staving off pressure from the United Nations Financial Action Task Force to shut the tap on terror financing; a catch 22 situation it is, for he is damned if he does & damned if he does not. Constrained as he is along with many of the other elected legislators of the PTI - due to the inexperience in governance - the Ministerial team that he assembles is of considerable interest to policy wonks. He can legitimately claim credit for his incorruptible image & ascending the apex in 2 diverse fields – Cricket & Politics – which is rare but would soon emerge chastened on realization that lording over the cricket establishment in Pak is not the same as presiding over the destiny of Pak, prone as he is to self-aggrandizement & lacking coalition & consensus building skills.  If his mercurial personna finally takes on the Military establishment he will end up like Nawaz Sharief.

Strategic Foreign Policy levers for the World Powers of the 21st Century: US, China & India

The globe has seen the emergence & eclipse of “World Powers” due to foreign policy imaginations or blunders respectively; Spain & Portugal were preeminent powers of the 15^th & 16^th centuries eclipsed by UK & France during the 17^th to 19^th centuries, only to be replaced by the USSR & the USA after the 2^nd World war. Post the breakup of the Soviet Union, in 1991, the world passed through a unipolar world order - the US being the sole superpower - but is now delicately poised to witness the emerge of China as a rival to the US with India playing the role of a  “swing power”.

Brief History

Spain & Portugal facing blockage to land routes to the East from the Venetians & the Turks, triumphed vide exploration of the seas, because of better ships, maps & navigation techniques to discover new lands & achieved great power status; The Treaty of Tordesillas, 1494, divided the world into two halves, with lands east of the line, 370 leagues west of the Cape Verde islands, off the coast of Africa, allocated to the Portuguese & the west  - largely continental Americas  minus Brazil – apportioned to Crown of castile (Spain) & was attested by a Papal bull. They lost their eminence due to cruel colonialism – lack of empathy for the locals, forced conversions due to missionary zeal, plunder of the local economies – & entering into unnecessary wars that sapped their strength.  Prince Phillip’s loss of the Spanish Armada, in 1588, is widely chronicled to have led to the end of Spanish dominance & beginning of Great Britain's rise. Later, in the 20^th century, the UK too lost the pride of place due to the World wars while the USSR broke up because the cold war arms race forced her to spend more than a proportionate share of its GDP. An aspiring world power like India should guard against the same mistakes. Other takeaways from history

Takeaway 1: A country can secure a permanent great power status not by fighting wars incessantly but by instilling the fear of deterrence.

Takeaway 2: All prospective world powers gained market access in foreign countries initially to expand their markets & enhanced their sources of raw materials to build economies of scale domestically that eventually helped in achieving a trade surplus that funds the rise.

Way Forward

In 2017, the US is the largest economy with a GDP of $19.4 trillion (2^nd in PPP - Purchasing Power Parity terms at $19.4 Trillion), followed by China at $12.2 trillion economy (1^st in PPP terms at $23 trillion) & India  6^th at $2.6 trillion ( 3^rd largest in PPP terms at $9.4 Trillion) It is sane to conclude, therefore, that India shall become the 3^rd largest economy in absolute terms before 2035 & shall hence play the role of a “swing” power perhaps riding on the principle of “strategic autonomy”.

Great powers, to achieve strategic objectives, have relied on “capacity”:  economic strength, military might & soft power. While higher GDP size allows leeway for greater military spends it is prudent to use “soft power” in the interim till the economic & military might achieve critical mass.

The rise of the US was due to the following farsighted foreign policy principles followed

Tenet 1: Dominate the International Financial ecosystem through the World Bank & the IMF: A US representative lords over the World Bank while ally EU's representative heads the IMF thereby retaining a stranglehold on the world’s financial architecture, helping to prise open world markets

Tenet 2: Checkmate Communist spread by creating the Military alliances NATO & SEATO: NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) was created, in 1949 & SEATO (South East Asia Treaty Organization), in 1954, to counter communist rise in Europe & South East Asia respectively. Ultimately, the cold war arms race was deliberately targeted to ensure the breakup of the Soviet Union in a bid to finish off an alternative to Western Capitalism. 

Tenet 3: Dominate World Trade with the creation of GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs & Trade) earlier & WTO (World Trade Organization) later:

Tenet 4: Soft Power: Education, Music & Movies: Attract foreign students to study in US universities & expect some of them to return to their homelands & rise in the bureaucracy or political hierarchy & help US vide diplomatic leverage in later years. Culturally influence foreign citizens with western music & hollywood even while American companies like Coke. McDonalds etc. fan consumerism.

Tenet 5: Selective push to democracy & human rights: Even while hobnobbing with the dictators of Middle East for oil security & leaders of Latin America & South East Asia as committed vassals, the US conveniently pushed for democracy & human rights as & when prudent to achieve geopolitical objectives.

In short the US pushed ideology – democracy & capitalism even as she tried to crush communism - & has tried to dominate world trade & financial architecture.

Competition to the US

The Soviet Union & Japan emerged as worthy challengers to the US in the post WW2 world order but even at the peak of their economic prosperity their economies never crossed 60% of the US GDP; the pacifist constitution, imposed on Japan, post WW2, ensured that she never emerged as a military power. While the Nixon - Kissinger plan of opening up to China in 1972 was meant to checkmate the USSR, China, has emerged as a competitor to the US & has already crossed the 60% of US GDP mark, in absolute terms & 118% of GDP in PPP terms; she is poised to surpass the US GDP in absolute terms by 2031 posing a credible challenge to the numero -uno.

Even while the dystopian Trump administration is busy corroding their country’s past foreign policy tenets, China is appropriating the space vacated by the sole superpower to gain acceptability. While Trump withdraws from the Paris climate change commitments, threatens to cut off support to the UN  & subvert the WTO (Tenet 4) by launching unilateral trade sanctions, China, surprisingly, calls for a rules based world order even as she refuses to accept the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the law of the sea) order on her territorial claims in the South China Sea. China is also building an alternative financial & political structure with the following objectives.

(A)Rival the financial architecture of the West by launching the BRICS Bank (New Development bank) & AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank)

(B)Create a rival to the Marshall Plan - that funded post WW2 reconstruction in Europe & Japan - vide the BRI (Belt & Road initiative) to fund infra expansion in foreign countries thereby gain ing diplomatic leverage.

(C)Build an alternative ideology – Communism with Chinese Characteristics - to Western Capitalism

(D)Push for Chinese Soft power: Mandarin language vide Confucius institutes

China’s Failures

Prudence demands that a successful world power avoid creating a troubled neighbourhood. While the Spain-Portugal rivalry led to the desecration of both the powers; later the UK-France tussle led to the same consequences. The US, on the contrary, kept neighbours comfortable – initially with the "Monroe doctrine", in 1823, to oppose European colonialism in the Americas, & later vide the "Roosevelt Corollary" in 1904, that announced US right to intervene in the internal affairs of any Latin American Country - in case of flagrant & chronic wrongdoing - thereby carving its sphere of influence, & thereafter strengthened its influence further with trade deals, in 1994, of the NAFTA (North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement) kind - with Mexico & Canada. Trump is currently unravelling the time tested initiatives.  China – by claiming the entire South China Sea disingenuously– vide the nine dashed line- & border disputes with countries like India, Vietnam etc.  is annoying her neighbours who, eventually, could join hands impeding the ‘Middle Kingdom’s” rise. China is keen that the South China Sea & the Indian Ocean are recognized as her sphere of influence.

India’s Options:

While India aspires to be a "World Power", her "Regional Power Status" is being challenged by China in her assumed traditional sphere of influence of the Indian Ocean Region. Checking China's intrusion, for the next 20 years, can only be achieved vide the Quad - US, India, Australia &Japan - with flexibility allowed to countries in South East Asia like Vietnam to join hands with the grouping. Meanwhile, India should attempt to become $10 trillion economy before 2035 & a steadily growing GDP –perhaps over 8% annually -  would automatically help her build her military might; she should exponentially expand her soft power, in the interim, incapable as she currently is in terms of matching Chinese FDI/Infra investments in various countries.

Proposed Indian Foreign Policy tenets

(a)Propagate soft power:

·         Yoga, Ayurveda, Music – Carnatic & Hindustani - & Movies – Bollywood & Regional Cinema

·         Replicate the US example in of attracting foreign students to Indian Universities

·   Strengthen National Disaster Relief Organization to provide services across Indian Ocean countries

(b)Attract Capital to spur growth rate & become 2^nd largest economy by 2050:

(c )Indigenization of military equipment to build a military industrial complex with exports

(d )Alternate narrative to Chinese One Language, One Culture with empathy on diversity: While China is trying to push the narrative of uniformity - Han Chinese with one language – Mandarin – India should encourage the growth & development of an alternative model of racial unity amongst her 3 races – Aryans, Dravidians & Mongoloids – 7 religions – Hindus, Buddhists, Jains, Sikhs, Christians, Muslims & Jews across languages – 22 official & other sub dialects. Most of the African countries have the same diversity of tribes as in India & would be keen to replicate the Indian model if found viable.

(e)Strengthen WTO & sneak in labour mobility:  The median age for India is 28 while that of China is 38 & the US 42; thus India with a youthful population should attempt to push for labour mobility to ensure that Indian manpower can secure jobs abroad. Training people on foreign languages – Japanese, German, French,  Spanish, Arabic & Persian – should, therefore, be encouraged.

Conclusion

Transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order is real & if India positions herself as “what China is not” she can emerge as a leader.

No Confidence Motion: The beginning of the 2019 Parliamentary Election Campaign

The BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), surprisingly, scuttled the No Confidence Motion, initiated by the TDP (Telugu Desam Party), during the last legislative session, despite enjoying a majority but allowed it this session for a debate & won it, resoundingly 325: 126. Only the BJD(Biju Janata Dal) walked off – in a bid to keep the party equidistant from both the Congress & the BJP, its principal rivals in the state of Odisha & did not support the TDP’s motion since Odisha has disputes with neighbouring Andhra. The Shiv Sena voted against the govt. – perhaps, as a negotiating tactic to secure a good share of Parliamentary & assembly seats; the AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) voting for the govt. makes de facto their entry into the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) fold. The battle lines are clearly taking concrete shape.

The TDP left the NDA ostensibly on the issue of denial of Special Category status, despite agreeing to financial compensation earlier, since it was slighted by the BJP looking to hobnob with YSRCP (Yuvajana Shramika Rythu Congress Party) & aiming to become a predominant Kapu led party – against a Reddy led YSRCP & a Kamma led TDP - & hence had kicked up a Kamma, Venkiah Naidu as the VP & make a Kapu, Kanna Lakshiminarayana as the Party President in AP.  The TDP would have been happy had the BJP played second fiddle in the state & helped the state in quicker implementation of the state bifurcation promises.

Rahul Gandhi (RaGa) – was keen to assert his relevance – as a viable opposition face to take on Modi & his speech – attacking the PM & not the BJP - was effective as was his self- depreciating use of the word ”Pappu”, “Jumla strike” – to account for unfulfilled bombastic promises  & slogan of “Daro Mat” to instill courage in the opposition ranks living in constant fear of the might of the state in the form of” caged parrots” being unleashed by the PM. Calling himself a “Shiv Bhakt” he attempted to fortify his Hindu roots & by not mentioning “Muslims” kept his speech safe from being tarred with the “minority appeasement” tag; earlier he met Muslim intellectuals & not the Maulvis to keep the party in the company of “Soft Hindutva & Liberal Muslims”.  The party though appears still unclear in terms of the ideological line to adopt. Hugging the PM, though, was a masterstroke to evoke eyeballs – a necessity in age of social media  – but his wink was juvenile; maturity demands that he should learn from the BJP leaders – who dislike Modi – but kept their emotions under check even during the debate.

Modi- the master orator was off colour during the debate; he seeks attentive audiences that allow him play up on drama & rhetoric; when faced with disruption he has a habit of running through with his speech denying  him the opportunity to land an effective jab at his opponents sometimes even with liberal doss of caustic humour. He did mention the achievements of his governments in great detail though but stretched himself on explaining his Achilles heel - the job scenario. Expect more research reports or articles glorifying the job scenario to emerge as we enter into the final stages of the electoral arena.

By turning the tables on RaGa  on the issue of “not looking into the eyes” – by pointing out the fate meted out to the likes of Sardar Vallabhai Patel, Subhash Bose, Charan Singh, Deve Gowda, IK Gujral, Sharad Pawar & Pranab Mukherjee – by the first family, vintage Modi, punched where it hurts & also tried to open up channels of communication with some opposition parties for alliances if not to reduce the index of opposition unity.

All in all the no confidence motion was merely a curtain raiser to the impending assembly elections in Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh & Mizoram – expected by the year end either in conjunction or sequenced by the Parliamentary elections. The BJP won the confidence vote but the opposition won their confidence; with mojo back the contest turns interesting.