No Confidence Motion: The beginning of the 2019 Parliamentary Election Campaign

The BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), surprisingly, scuttled the No Confidence Motion, initiated by the TDP (Telugu Desam Party), during the last legislative session, despite enjoying a majority but allowed it this session for a debate & won it, resoundingly 325: 126. Only the BJD(Biju Janata Dal) walked off – in a bid to keep the party equidistant from both the Congress & the BJP, its principal rivals in the state of Odisha & did not support the TDP’s motion since Odisha has disputes with neighbouring Andhra. The Shiv Sena voted against the govt. – perhaps, as a negotiating tactic to secure a good share of Parliamentary & assembly seats; the AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) voting for the govt. makes de facto their entry into the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) fold. The battle lines are clearly taking concrete shape.

The TDP left the NDA ostensibly on the issue of denial of Special Category status, despite agreeing to financial compensation earlier, since it was slighted by the BJP looking to hobnob with YSRCP (Yuvajana Shramika Rythu Congress Party) & aiming to become a predominant Kapu led party – against a Reddy led YSRCP & a Kamma led TDP - & hence had kicked up a Kamma, Venkiah Naidu as the VP & make a Kapu, Kanna Lakshiminarayana as the Party President in AP.  The TDP would have been happy had the BJP played second fiddle in the state & helped the state in quicker implementation of the state bifurcation promises.

Rahul Gandhi (RaGa) – was keen to assert his relevance – as a viable opposition face to take on Modi & his speech – attacking the PM & not the BJP - was effective as was his self- depreciating use of the word ”Pappu”, “Jumla strike” – to account for unfulfilled bombastic promises  & slogan of “Daro Mat” to instill courage in the opposition ranks living in constant fear of the might of the state in the form of” caged parrots” being unleashed by the PM. Calling himself a “Shiv Bhakt” he attempted to fortify his Hindu roots & by not mentioning “Muslims” kept his speech safe from being tarred with the “minority appeasement” tag; earlier he met Muslim intellectuals & not the Maulvis to keep the party in the company of “Soft Hindutva & Liberal Muslims”.  The party though appears still unclear in terms of the ideological line to adopt. Hugging the PM, though, was a masterstroke to evoke eyeballs – a necessity in age of social media  – but his wink was juvenile; maturity demands that he should learn from the BJP leaders – who dislike Modi – but kept their emotions under check even during the debate.

Modi- the master orator was off colour during the debate; he seeks attentive audiences that allow him play up on drama & rhetoric; when faced with disruption he has a habit of running through with his speech denying  him the opportunity to land an effective jab at his opponents sometimes even with liberal doss of caustic humour. He did mention the achievements of his governments in great detail though but stretched himself on explaining his Achilles heel - the job scenario. Expect more research reports or articles glorifying the job scenario to emerge as we enter into the final stages of the electoral arena.

By turning the tables on RaGa  on the issue of “not looking into the eyes” – by pointing out the fate meted out to the likes of Sardar Vallabhai Patel, Subhash Bose, Charan Singh, Deve Gowda, IK Gujral, Sharad Pawar & Pranab Mukherjee – by the first family, vintage Modi, punched where it hurts & also tried to open up channels of communication with some opposition parties for alliances if not to reduce the index of opposition unity.

All in all the no confidence motion was merely a curtain raiser to the impending assembly elections in Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh & Mizoram – expected by the year end either in conjunction or sequenced by the Parliamentary elections. The BJP won the confidence vote but the opposition won their confidence; with mojo back the contest turns interesting.