The Revival Plan of The Congress Party

Not many political commentators have spoken about the “jut” or a pony tail - a Brahmanical symbol - that Rahul Gandhi has suddenly started sporting for the last few months. Is he alluding to his own Kashmiri Brahmin roots & thereby trying to dent the BJP base dominated by the Brahmin – Bania combine but is now led by OBC leaders like Narendra Modi much to the chagrin, perhaps, of the forward castes?

Juxtapose this with the Congress’ decision to have 3 forward caste members & 1 Muslim as its nominees for the 4 Ministerial positions allocated to them, in Bihar & the strategy becomes clearer. Rahul’s push for reserving 50% of the positions in the party to Dalits when combined with the above decisions indicates that the Congress think tank wants to arrive at a coalition of the subaltern Dalits with the forward castes to regain power. Rahul Gandhi’s dash to Hyderabad University post the suicide of Rohith Vemula & the protests in Delhi soon thereafter should be seen against this background.

The BSP is dominated by the Balmikis – the largest of the Dalit communities to which Mayawati belongs - while the BJP is trying to entice Pasis – the 2^nd largest of the Dalit communities; the Paswans have been the dominant Dalit force in Bihar. None of the Dalit leaders outside UP & Bihar have attempted to form a regional party & when attempted they were not succeessful; this offers a remarkable opening which the Congress seems to be trying to exploit especially when the BSP’s own influence outside UP is waning.

Rahul Gandhi’s penchant for reviving the party in UP & Bihar through a “lone furrow” - going alone strategy - has misfired while the coalition with anti-BJP forces in the Bihar assembly elections, in 2015, has been remarkably successful, giving an unprecedented electoral dividends of 27 seats of the 41 it contested; its previous best performance being 29 seats in 1995. Clearly, going forward, expect an electoral tie up with the DMK in TN & electoral understanding with the Left in Bengal for the 2016 assembly elections. While political commentators have been arguing that it shall be tricky for the Congress to ally with the Left in Bengal while being in a direct fight with them in Tripura & Kerala what is forgotten is that state level confrontations did not deter the Left from supporting the Congress during UPA 1 (2004-09). If keeping a "communal" BJP out of power was the logic then, then removing a "corrupt" TMC - plagued by the Sharada scam - & preventing the same "communal" BJP's revival in Bengal - nearly dead & dormant after Shyama Prasad Mukherjee's death in the 1950's -  can be the logic now which, incidentally, shall be palatable to the electorate too.

Congress shall also attempt to tie up with the BSP in UP for the 2017 assembly elections but do not be surprised if Mayawati rebukes them fearful as she is of her own Bahujan base getting eroded in the bargain. Electoral arithmetic indicates that a Congress-BSP tie up is a sure shot winner against the SP & the BJP whose revival post the 2014 Parliamentary elections in the largest state of the union is now part of the Amit Shah folk lore.

The BJP for long was considered to be a party restricted to the North & West with a significant presence in Karnataka in the south & attempting to grow in the NE - especially in Assam. The Congress was a Pan India party but has been losing presence gradually; it is decimated in the East & its support in TN has dwindled post the late 60’s with the growth of Dravidian parties & support for formation of the Telengana state killed the Party in AP. It is therefore only a matter of time before the areas of dominance for both the BJP & the Congress coincide. That makes coalitions mandatory for either entity to ride to power.

With the BJP’s coalition partners Shiv Sena, Telugu Desam & Akali Dal smarting under a dominant partner, the perception of a more nuanced & accommodative treatment of the allies by the Congress would offer them an opening with like-minded parties. Paradoxically, this was the strategy adopted by the BJP during the Vajpayee-Advani era when anti-Congressism was the dominant discourse.

What separates the Congress from the BJP today is the ideological cadre muscle provided by the RSS to the latter; organizational elections, decision making based on consensus & more democratic functioning have helped the emergence of state level leaders with strong political roots in the BJP which the high command culture of the Congress lacks. Working on these aspects is also critical to create a long term competitive advantage. Other strategies for revival are listed in my earlier article whose link is attached.

http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2014/12/congress-decimated-suggested-revival.html

Building a coalition of Dalit-Forward castes & agreements with like-minded allies is the sure shot route for Congress revival if coupled with organizational elections; however organizational elections are unlikely since the hegemony of the dynasty could then be challenged. That truly is disappointing.

Kashmir: Why is Mehbooba Mufti not taking over as CM?

Mufti Mohammed Sayeed – the 79 year old PDP patriarch – died on Jan 7^th 2016 & the PDP leadership quickly anointed his 58 year old daughter & party President, Mehbooba Mufti, as his successor, a transition the Mufti would have loved to witness during his lifetime. Incidentally, he attempted such a change over during Sept- Nov last year till dissent from both within the PDP & from the BJP - who view Mehbooba as less conciliatory than her father - did him in.  Against this background, Mehbooba’s reluctance to take over the CM position immediately, claiming that she was in the mourning period was perplexing. Incidentally,  the religious mourning period is for 4 days which ended on Sun, the 10th & the officially ordained state mourning period is for 7 days, ending on 13^th.

The grist of the rumour mills were kept running for the last few days on some intriguing questions: In a patriarchal society was Mehbooba planning to do a Sonia – retain the Presidentship of the Party & have her confidant as the CM? ; was the delay intended to send a signal that she is not obsessed with power; does she want to break off with the BJP & form a coalition with the Congress? ; or is she trying to extract concessions from the BJP or repulsing their demands?

The first 3 questions are easy to answer. Unlike the NC where the Abdullahs’ are masters of all they survey, there are many chieftains in the PDP like Muzaffar Hussain Beig & Tariq Karra who are influential. Against this background it is unlikely that Mehbooba would allow anyone else to be the CM, thereby creating a rival power centre; she might want to become the CM, strengthen her control both over the party & govt. & initiate some moves to regain some of the support lost by the party, in the valley, during the last 9 months. The low turnout at the Mufti's funeral buttresses the assessment of loss of support.

The last assembly elections in J&K gave rise to a fractured verdict with the Hindu majority in Jammu voting massively for the BJP, giving them an unprecedented 25 seats, while the Muslim majority in the Kashmir valley unequivocally siding with the PDP & gifting them an unprecedented 28 seats, the Congress secured 12 seats while the NC got 15 seats in the 87 member assembly.  The BJP block consisted of 28 seats: BJP 25, PC 2; & an independent 1 seat.  The consummate politician in Mufti Sayeed must have realized that the BJP in opposition would have pursued an unbridled Hindu agenda & hence needed to be tamed through a coalition on many issues including article 370; a BJP-PDP tie up was also essential to bridge the religious polarization that had emerged between Kashmir & Jammu, he must have reasoned. A revenue deficit state like J&K, always needs the support of the ruling dispensation at the centre & that must have been the final clincher in cementing the thought of a partnership despite the bitter ideological differences between the two parties.

Tariq Karra, now, is however a proponent of an alternative PDP-Congress tie up. “PDP has lost its support by tying up with a communal party. All the secular forces should unite and rise above their political positions to form an alliance with PDP” he avers. This is unlikely despite Gulam Nabi Azad spending time in the valley after Mufti Sayeed’s death & Sonia Gandhi visiting Mehbooda purportedly to offer her condolences.  If the PDP & Congress come together, they would still need the support of the 4 independents to have a simple majority in the assembly; needless to say such a govt. would be prone to blackmail & hence unstable unless supported by the NC.  The Mufti’s political journey has been marked by an anti-Abdullah family rant; therefore, while the NC offered support to the PDP earlier – an unprecedented gesture which many believe was to ensure the continuance of the power base in the valley & not beyond – Mufti Sayeed, shrewdly, had opted otherwise. Since this line of thought has not changed between March 2015 & Jan 2016 a BJP-PDP coalition is bound to continue.  A PDP-Congress tie up now would also invite the criticism that Mufti Sayeed was perhaps wrong in his political calculations earlier which Mehbooba would be keen to avoid to protect her father’s legacy. Mehbooba is however incensed that none from the BJP top brass visited the ailing Mufti in Delhi unlike Sonia who had paid a visit & waited for about 30 min for Mehbooba's arrival; such personal gestures go a long way in politics.

While there are naysayers on the PDP side proposing a rethink on the tie up with the BJP there are many in the BJP who would like a renegotiation on the “Agenda of Alliance” (AOA) & the Cabinet portfolios. In the long drawn out post-election negotiations between Jan to Mar 2015, the Mufti weared the BJP & its interlocutor Ram Madhav down, to agree for an unequal tie up:  no rotational CM’s unlike during the Congress-PDP govt. during the period 2002-08; 10 Cabinet berths for the PDP & only 6 for the BJP despite both having the support of 28 MLAs. The BJP realized its folly soon after & seems to using the current pause to correct the anomaly which the PDP is loath to concede.  If done, Mehbooba would unwittingly be perceived as “weak” squandering the gains made by her illustrious father, inviting public angst which many of her party chieftains would be keen to exploit.  The assessment that the BJP is seeking a renegotiation on the “AOA” is borne out by the statement made by the PDP ideologue Muzaffar Hussain Beigh on Friday: "the rules of the game cannot be changed midway into the game and BJP needed to stick to whatever it had agreed upon regarding the chief minister's post and cabinet portfolios"

There are others who believe that that post the Pathankot incident & the successive defeats in the Delhi & Bihar elections, the PDP perceives a weakened BJP & is keen to wrest more concessions – more development funds from the centre, climb down from the current position on the dual flag issue, uninterrupted & uninterruptable dialogue with Pakistan,  more liberty in handling the internal situation in the valley including repeal of the AFSPA, release of people like Masarat Alam, scraping the position of a Dy.CM  et al. 

The BJP got jittery post the Sonia-Mehbooba bonhomie & dispatched Nitin Gadkari to meet Mehbooba in the valley & reconciled to continue the current power sharing arrangement with its State President saying so. The PDP said on 12th  that its coalition with BJP will continue on the basis of 'Agenda of Alliance' framed by the two parties last year. The rumours are now laid to rest & the path is now set for Mehbooba to take over as the CM of J&K before the end of Jan. The reins of power slowly but surely now shift to a new dynasty in the valley.

Movie Review "Wazir"

Watching the slick trailers of “Wazir” last year & noting its ensemble cast – both in front & behind the camera - many were tempted to tick it  as a “must watch” in 2016; alas, the hopes are belied for  the “thriller” part is overstated.

Wazir is a story of two men – battling personal tragedies & guilt thereof – brought together not by providence but by the game of chess & revenge wrecked with one of them playing the master Grandmaster. Vishy Anand would have been proud of the moves the protagonist makes. It is a metaphor of life too with a difference: While a move made on the 64 squares can be reversed, life offers no such luxury.

Farhan (Daanish Ali) is an ATS officer  whose patriotic jest in engaging militants – after spotting them accidentally, while out with his family - results in the loss of his daughter, in a shootout that follows leading to his forced separation from his otherwise doting wife Aditi Rao Hydari (Ruhana). While the ATS is executing a raid to capture the militants alive, Danish’s indiscretion - fuelled by a desire for retribution - botches the operation, leading to his suspension, despite protests by his superior played by Murli Sharma.

Chess master Amitabh Bachchan (Omkar Nath Dhar) aka Panditji – a paralysed wheelchair bound widower – who lost his wife & his legs together in an accident - courtesy his own indiscretion at rash driving - & his daughter after apparently falling off the stairs – at a politician Manav Kaul (Izaad Qureshi) house where she went to teach chess to his daughter - is nursing his wounds; he disputes the cause of his daughter’s death shown otherwise as an accident.  Snatching justice through personal sacrifice & a carefully planned chess moves forms the remaining part of this interesting movie.

The story had the potential to emerge into a great thriller but for the fact that none of the characters except for Farhan & Amitabh are properly etched. Neil Nitin Mukesh (Wazir) excels in his brief blink & miss role; either that portion of the story could have been informed vide a background narrative or Neil given a greater role. Is it not paradoxical that the movie named “Wazir” has no role for the character “Wazir”? Same holds true for John Abraham (SP) whose short burst is a meaningless addition. Murli Sharma – a fine actor – is not properly utilized; post his outstanding performances in “Main Hoon Na” “Baby” et al he deserved a longer role.  Manav Kaul - who plays a Kashmiri Politician – impresses with his glaring looks & menacing triceps, but his character remains unexplained; why did he indulge in the inhuman act of massacre? Perhaps, the director did not want to delve into the Kashmir cauldron covered as it was in great detail by Vishal Bharadwaj in “Haidar”; that however proves to be the movie’s undoing. Lest the similarity of the political party that Manav represents sounding similar to a local party in the valley, inviting defamation charges, the director covers himself with a disclaimer at the beginning of the movie.

The editing is taut restricting the movie is about 100 min & the script by Vidhu VInod Chopra & Abhijat Joshi – of the Munnabhai fame - is good for it is different from the usual fare; only regret is that it could have been handled better. A slightly romantic addition between Farhan & Aditi at the beginning of the movie would have helped the music directors to add variety to the otherwise soulful yet melancholy scores; likewise delving deeper into Manav’s character, in the 2nd half of the movie,  would have helped untangle his sinister game plans and given the audience a perspective on Kashmir.  Amitabh excels as always with his effortless grace & Aditi is outstanding, allowing her eyes to emote & do all the talking as a grieving mother & an angry wife.  Farhan has a one-dimensional look – a brooding one - throughout the movie but looks his role as an ATS officer; perhaps his physical build up for "Bhag Milkha Bhag" helped. He smiles only twice in the movie – once at the beginning of the movie -  during his marriage - & the other at the end of the movie when the suspense is revealed.

Overall a movie high on promise & short on delivery; expected Bijoy Nambiar to do a better job.