Kashmir: Why is Mehbooba Mufti not taking over as CM?

Mufti Mohammed Sayeed – the 79 year old PDP patriarch – died on Jan 7^th 2016 & the PDP leadership quickly anointed his 58 year old daughter & party President, Mehbooba Mufti, as his successor, a transition the Mufti would have loved to witness during his lifetime. Incidentally, he attempted such a change over during Sept- Nov last year till dissent from both within the PDP & from the BJP - who view Mehbooba as less conciliatory than her father - did him in.  Against this background, Mehbooba’s reluctance to take over the CM position immediately, claiming that she was in the mourning period was perplexing. Incidentally,  the religious mourning period is for 4 days which ended on Sun, the 10th & the officially ordained state mourning period is for 7 days, ending on 13^th.

The grist of the rumour mills were kept running for the last few days on some intriguing questions: In a patriarchal society was Mehbooba planning to do a Sonia – retain the Presidentship of the Party & have her confidant as the CM? ; was the delay intended to send a signal that she is not obsessed with power; does she want to break off with the BJP & form a coalition with the Congress? ; or is she trying to extract concessions from the BJP or repulsing their demands?

The first 3 questions are easy to answer. Unlike the NC where the Abdullahs’ are masters of all they survey, there are many chieftains in the PDP like Muzaffar Hussain Beig & Tariq Karra who are influential. Against this background it is unlikely that Mehbooba would allow anyone else to be the CM, thereby creating a rival power centre; she might want to become the CM, strengthen her control both over the party & govt. & initiate some moves to regain some of the support lost by the party, in the valley, during the last 9 months. The low turnout at the Mufti's funeral buttresses the assessment of loss of support.

The last assembly elections in J&K gave rise to a fractured verdict with the Hindu majority in Jammu voting massively for the BJP, giving them an unprecedented 25 seats, while the Muslim majority in the Kashmir valley unequivocally siding with the PDP & gifting them an unprecedented 28 seats, the Congress secured 12 seats while the NC got 15 seats in the 87 member assembly.  The BJP block consisted of 28 seats: BJP 25, PC 2; & an independent 1 seat.  The consummate politician in Mufti Sayeed must have realized that the BJP in opposition would have pursued an unbridled Hindu agenda & hence needed to be tamed through a coalition on many issues including article 370; a BJP-PDP tie up was also essential to bridge the religious polarization that had emerged between Kashmir & Jammu, he must have reasoned. A revenue deficit state like J&K, always needs the support of the ruling dispensation at the centre & that must have been the final clincher in cementing the thought of a partnership despite the bitter ideological differences between the two parties.

Tariq Karra, now, is however a proponent of an alternative PDP-Congress tie up. “PDP has lost its support by tying up with a communal party. All the secular forces should unite and rise above their political positions to form an alliance with PDP” he avers. This is unlikely despite Gulam Nabi Azad spending time in the valley after Mufti Sayeed’s death & Sonia Gandhi visiting Mehbooda purportedly to offer her condolences.  If the PDP & Congress come together, they would still need the support of the 4 independents to have a simple majority in the assembly; needless to say such a govt. would be prone to blackmail & hence unstable unless supported by the NC.  The Mufti’s political journey has been marked by an anti-Abdullah family rant; therefore, while the NC offered support to the PDP earlier – an unprecedented gesture which many believe was to ensure the continuance of the power base in the valley & not beyond – Mufti Sayeed, shrewdly, had opted otherwise. Since this line of thought has not changed between March 2015 & Jan 2016 a BJP-PDP coalition is bound to continue.  A PDP-Congress tie up now would also invite the criticism that Mufti Sayeed was perhaps wrong in his political calculations earlier which Mehbooba would be keen to avoid to protect her father’s legacy. Mehbooba is however incensed that none from the BJP top brass visited the ailing Mufti in Delhi unlike Sonia who had paid a visit & waited for about 30 min for Mehbooba's arrival; such personal gestures go a long way in politics.

While there are naysayers on the PDP side proposing a rethink on the tie up with the BJP there are many in the BJP who would like a renegotiation on the “Agenda of Alliance” (AOA) & the Cabinet portfolios. In the long drawn out post-election negotiations between Jan to Mar 2015, the Mufti weared the BJP & its interlocutor Ram Madhav down, to agree for an unequal tie up:  no rotational CM’s unlike during the Congress-PDP govt. during the period 2002-08; 10 Cabinet berths for the PDP & only 6 for the BJP despite both having the support of 28 MLAs. The BJP realized its folly soon after & seems to using the current pause to correct the anomaly which the PDP is loath to concede.  If done, Mehbooba would unwittingly be perceived as “weak” squandering the gains made by her illustrious father, inviting public angst which many of her party chieftains would be keen to exploit.  The assessment that the BJP is seeking a renegotiation on the “AOA” is borne out by the statement made by the PDP ideologue Muzaffar Hussain Beigh on Friday: "the rules of the game cannot be changed midway into the game and BJP needed to stick to whatever it had agreed upon regarding the chief minister's post and cabinet portfolios"

There are others who believe that that post the Pathankot incident & the successive defeats in the Delhi & Bihar elections, the PDP perceives a weakened BJP & is keen to wrest more concessions – more development funds from the centre, climb down from the current position on the dual flag issue, uninterrupted & uninterruptable dialogue with Pakistan,  more liberty in handling the internal situation in the valley including repeal of the AFSPA, release of people like Masarat Alam, scraping the position of a Dy.CM  et al. 

The BJP got jittery post the Sonia-Mehbooba bonhomie & dispatched Nitin Gadkari to meet Mehbooba in the valley & reconciled to continue the current power sharing arrangement with its State President saying so. The PDP said on 12th  that its coalition with BJP will continue on the basis of 'Agenda of Alliance' framed by the two parties last year. The rumours are now laid to rest & the path is now set for Mehbooba to take over as the CM of J&K before the end of Jan. The reins of power slowly but surely now shift to a new dynasty in the valley.