Narendra Modi is celebrating the successful completion of his 1st year in office with the “Jan Kalyan Parv” (People Welfare
Festival) - a blitzkrieg that includes 200 press conferences & rallies each
along with a 360 degree media campaign. While the govt. pats itself with the slogan “Saal Ek, Shuruaat Anek” (One Year, Many
Beginnings) the Congress lampoons the ruling party with the slogan “Ek Saal, Desh Badhal”
(One year, ill-fated Country) while the
CPI(M) adds insult to injury with “Ek Saal, Bura Haal”( One year, Bad Times).
Clearly, our rambunctious democracy is at work.
Even the worst critics of the
ruling dispensation concede that Modi is the lord of all he surveys – the Govt.
& the Party; the current regime, therefore, escapes the plague of “dual power
centres” – an accusation that dogged the previous regime. The contrarian view
is that if, indeed, Pulak Chatterjee did take all govt. files to Mrs Sonia
Gandhi for direction, then by implication,
the entire power lay at 10, Janpath & the accusation of “dual power
centres” stands demolished. The net takeaway is that power when denied to the
powerful on the issue or constitutionality or otherwise has other unintended
consequences. Therefore, let such debates persist in the interest of creating a
vibrant democracy.
Modi won a simple majority post a
bitter campaign – a no holds barred one – where each of the parties outbid the
other in calling names & used the media imaginatively. In the words of Venkaiah Naidu, the Congress
indulged in “corruption everywhere“ - under the ground (Coal Gate), over the ground
( CWG), in the air (2G) & the atmosphere (Antrix). Modi’s suave oratory of
combining “2G” & “Jijaji” (Robert Vadra) did touch a chord with the
audience & along with the much touted “Gujarat Model” of governance won him
a majority – a present denied by the Indian electorate to any party for about
quarter of a century. Clearly, expectations
are running high & it is against such pent up demands of an impatient electorate
that we evaluate Modi’s contributions during the last one year in office.
Streamlining governance
Modi promised “Minimum
Government, Maximum Governance” as part of his election campaign & “walked
the talk” by starting his innings with under 50 ministers. By creating a “Margdarshak
Mandal” & denying Ministries to his party-men who had crossed the age of 75,
Modi has tried to set a retirement age for politicians in a country where politicians
die or fade away but never retire; this was a welcome move. However, the
paucity of talent in his ministry forced him to enlarge his team. While analysts continued to express their lack
of confidence in the “quality of talent” even today the govt. believes that what
the Ministers lack in experience is more than made up through hard work. Modi,
however, shall be better served by a smaller but more talented team for which
he should seek outside talent. For details read
It is to the BJP’s credit that
despite all its spokespersons being elevated to the council of Ministers, the
new spokespersons who have replaced their illustrious predecessors have
distinguished themselves; paradoxically, this indicates the depth of talent in
the party which the Ministry lacks.
Modi knows how to play the “Carrot
& Stick” game. The Home Secretary, Anil Goswami, was supposedly sacked for
trying to prevent the arrest of the Sharada scam accused - the former Congress
Minister, Matang Sinh. On the contrary,
by making Nripendra Mishra, the Principal Secretary, through an ordinance route
& S Jaishankar the foreign Secretary – unseating the incumbent – just a few
days before his retirement, has sent a signal to the bureaucracy that
performers shall be disproportionately rewarded; this has the potential to
recharge the moribund bureaucracy. Critics agree that Modi has successfully disciplined
the bureaucrats and ministers which is a welcome change. However, rumours of surveillance
on ministers & media gag orders persist which is discomforting.
The recent arrest of certain
elements - on charges of stealing govt. files - has sent a signal to the Industry not to meddle with
governance, which is welcome. The govt. proudly claims that political agents
& middlemen have been forced to retreat from the corridors of power in
Delhi which is a tribute to Modi’s “strong leadership”
Foreign Policy
Modi has brought his own
flamboyance & vigour to foreign policy; this was a necessity to gain
international visibility after India had fallen off the perch in 2010, affected
as she was by corruption allegations & the consequent paralysis of
governance. Modi initiated the “neighbourhood
first” policy for regional acceptability is the first step to be crossed before being
recognised as a world power. He has successfully strengthening relations with
Japan & mended relations with the US – forgiving the sole superpower for
denying him a visa during earlier years. The basic tenets of his diplomacy are:
Enhance Economic component; Strengthen links with the Indian diaspora; & Smoothen
strategic security architecture with like-minded countries; for details see
To contain China, Modi has
initiated the “Bharat Mala & Sagar Mala” projects & has countered the
Chinese “Road & Belt” project with “The Indian Spice route & Mausam
projects”; for details see
The evacuation of 4500 Indians
& nationals from 41 countries from war town Yemen as well as instant
response to the earthquake in Nepal has enhanced India’s image as a nation; for
details see.
However, Modi’s Pakistan policy is
floundering post his cancellation of Secy. level talks & to his consternation, Pak is gaining leverage over Afghanistan – where we have strategic assets to
protect. Not everything is quiet in the western borders & that is a cause
of concern. Likewise, his non- engagement with the Middle-East - which accounts for India's energy security - is bewildering. Perhaps, he has an image to protect.
Economy
The economic mess in ’91 saw the Narsimha
Rao govt. take instantaneous decisions, prepared as they were with the
blueprint of what was to be done on returning to power; “economic reforms” thus
happened. Knowing fully well the precarious status of the Indian economy, it
was expected of the BJP to either come prepared with their blueprint or
implement the one suggested by the mandarins of the finance ministry as soon as
they were in the saddle. During the
course of the campaign, Modi purportedly requesting Arun Shourie to interact
with the intelligentsia & the industry to draw up a roadmap for reforms
& many analysts believe that he along with Piyush Goel, indeed, worked out
the contours of such a policy. It was, therefore, widely expected that Arun
Shourie would become the Finance Minister & along with Raghuram Rajan -who
was already doing an outstanding job in steadying the financial system - complete
a fine picture.
Surprisingly, Arun Jaitley became
the finance Minister & his first budget was a rehash of P Chidambaram’s interim
budget. With the private sector suffering from overcapacity, infrastructure
companies loaded with debt & banks burdened from rising NPA’s ,
accelerating environment clearances or instituting single window clearances or
tweaking of labour laws was unlikely to turn around the investment cycle; public
investment would. With the govt. being served an unexpected bonanza in the form
of a huge drop in international oil prices, the savings thus achieved should have
been immediately deployed into public investments in the first year itself which
they didn’t. Jaitley’s 2nd budget did but precious time was lost;
for details of union budget 2015 & railway budget 2015 see
Social Affairs
Modi’s penchant for “development”
was combined surreptitiously with “communal polarisation” by affiliate
organizations at the ground level to gain electoral victories till Delhi stopped
the juggernaut. Campaigns such as “Ghar Vapasi” , “Love Jihad” or attack on
churches have created a fear psychosis amongst the minorities which does not do
bode well for the social fabric of the country. History is witness to the fact
that support extended to religious extremist elements like Brindanwale created
the Punjab tangle which took more than a decade & the sacrifice of lakhs of
lives before normalcy was restored. With
the Middle -East burning due to intra religious conflicts & countries like
Nigeria & Myanmar struggling with inter religious ones, it is prudent to
avoid religious polarisation as a route to seek power; neither is minority
appeasement passing off as secularism or caste polarisation the solution.
Conclusion
That Modi is a hard working Prime
Minister is a given. While the “Chai-wala” wearing “pinstipe suits” did cause
some rancour, his efforts at rejuvenating the foreign policy and disciplining
the bureaucracy has earned many plaudits. The world wants India to succeed
& Modi is at the right place at the right time. He has the potential to provide astute leadership
to make India an economic & military power & help India get its
rightful place at the high table – a permanent member of the UNSC. However, he
has to discipline the fringe elements in his party if he is intent on seeking the
stature of an “International statesmen”. Lee Kuan Yew once opined that Nehru
was a “demagogue who choose not to be a dictator”. Only Modi has the answers on
how he wants the world to remember him.
