Congress Decimated: Suggested Revival Plans

The Congress is completely decimated; it was trounced in J&K & Jharkhand where it stood a poor No 4. The PM, Modi, who had raised the slogan “Congress Mukt Bharat”seems to be making good his promise while the Congress seems at a loss in evolving a counter to the BJP’s strategy of usurping its symbols & icons & replacing them with new ones. While anti-Congress'ism defined all the national & regional parties formed post-Independence - Swatantra party, Jana Sangh, TDP et all- it is, indeed, paradoxical that the political canvas has now come a full circle &  nearly all parties, today, thrive on anti-BJP'ism.

Parties like JD (U) & the RJD, ideologically similar, but with dissimilar governance models, have become strange bed fellows in Bihar with the sole objective of protecting their existence from a marauding BJP that threatens annihilation. The success in the Bihar by- elections seems to have prodded them to extend this experiment nationally, bringing in the additional allies, SP from UP & the JD(S) from Karnataka to recreate a new Janata Parivar. Thus, while the followers of Ram Manohar Lohia are at least attempting a counter, the bludgeoned Congress seems too bewildered to construct an effective narrative. Since any state is well served through alternate ideologies fighting for public affection, the revival of the fortunes of both Congress & the Left front is urgently needed; else they risk being consigned to the footnotes of history.

The congress is well advised to subscribe to the following

Get back to the mass movement mode: 



The Indian National Congress (INC) was a party of the crème de la crème of society till Gandhiji, post returning from South Africa in 1915, converted it into a mass based organization that earned its spurs taking up issues that ail the common man – agitations in Champaran, in 1916 & Kheda, in 1918, being cases in point. Such actions by the Mahatma, spurred huge interest for being members of the party-a euphemism for cadre- who turned propagandists in their areas of influence & created a self-fulfilling virtuous cycle. Not sure if the Congress can boast of the same today.

The RSS has the VHP & the Bajrang Dal attracting the most fundamentalist of the Hindus while the Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram, Akal Vidyalaya, Sewa Bharati et al are helping give a fillip to the ST no’s in its fold. The Left, despite diminished, is still a disciplined cadre based party largely without religious afflictions although in Kerala it bears the burden of being branded as a predominantly Hindu party without adequate representation to Christians & Muslims who have found greater comfort under a Congress led UDF regime.

Congress, over a period of time, has degenerated into a party whose leaders are seen clamouring for power alone. What would explain otherwise the set of leaders who jump ship just before elections & wade to the winning post riding on a different flag? Add to that the problem of leaders who smoothly transition to professional roles post losing power denying the party, leadership, during vulnerable occasions. Contrast this with Modi & Amit Shah who are 24X7 politicians that explains their stupendous electoral successes.

 The Congress’s transition to a cadre based party, taking up issues at the grass root level is the only panacea & that cannot happen without young, 24X7 leaders at the helm. Fair weather leaders or aged ones without the ability or inclination for mass contact programs should at most be placated through positions offered in think tanks.

Leaders through election & not nomination: 


Nomination has been the bane of the congress. While Nehru was nominated to the position of Prime Minister by Gandhi when an overwhelming majority of State Congress Committees were pitching for Sardar Patel, Nehru at least had the capability to evolve into a fine leader. This process, when continued in the party, with impunity, disastrous consequences were only waiting to follow. Often, nominated leaders lack the spine for they neither carry favour with the party cadre nor evoke awe or fear in the opposition ranks which in short is a sure recipe for disaster.

It is in Congress’s interest to carry out organization elections & let new leaders emerge through a democratic process. Such leaders should be tasked to concentrate on their home turfs & ensure victory of the party in 5 years. While a Sachin Pilot, in Rajasthan or a Jyotiraditya Scindia, in MP, show promise; somebody beyond the dynasties that these two represent should be encouraged to emerge. Most of the leaders ensconced in the capital should be repatriated to their home states which would not only release a no of government bungalows in Lutyens Delhi-doing a lot of public good-but also do a world of good for the party too.

Create cadre through ideology & not through money power: 
The growth of the BJP is by no mean measure contributed by the success of the RSS in terms of creating a cadre based on ideology. The contours of the ideology may be debatable but the potency definitely is not. The same logic would hold true for the ideology of the Left too. It is, however, a shame that the Congress is currently bereft of any ideology, a situation that demands an immediate correction.

Secularism is a highly misused term since all parties in the country have violated it at some time. While the BJP is perennially termed communal, the congress is not untarred. Its misadventures of first patronizing Bhindranwale & then eliminating him in 1984 through operation Bluestar led to Indira Gandhi’s assassination that supposedly instigated the butchering of about 3000 Sikhs, in Delhi, who have been denied justice till date. The Congress reversed the Shah Bano’s judgement to appease the Muslim fundamentalists & then did a balancing act of allowing Shilanyas in the Ram temple at Ayodhya-that was locked since 1949- to appease the Hindu ones. Realization has dawned on the Congress, post the Antony Committee’s report, that the Indian voter today dislikes the party propagating minority appeasement as Secularism. It is therefore time for creating a new narrative

The success of AAP in Delhi as well as the Left in Latin America indicates that there is still space for a left of centre ideology in the Indian polity & the party would be well advised to seize the opportunity.

Employ charismatic faces as spokespersons:
It is not only important to build an effective ideology but to have effective charismatic spokespersons marketing the same on national level TV debates which have now become an important source for the hoi polloi to take informed decisions. CR Kesavan & Sachin Pilot has shown the calibre to don the mantle & it is important to add more muscle into this act. It is worthwhile to note that while the entire spokesperson clan of the BJP moved into government the second level consisting of Sambit Patra, Nalin Kohli et al have quickly emerged to take their place; Congress needs to institute a similar mechanism & so should the left who today look bereft of talent.

Lead from the front:
Finally, it is important for who so ever has taken on the mantle of national leadership to lead from the front & not sit in the shadows or make occasional pronouncements. Rahul Gandhi is better advised to interact with the press more handsomely & create an effective counter in the Lok Sabha of which he is an esteemed member. Since the press is today starved of information from the government, courtesy restrictions imposed, Congress leaders have the pleasure to interact with the scribes more often & through creative imagination weave a believable story for the consumption of the masses. Therefore Rahul should cease from being a part time politician, mostly found on foreign shores, to a full time one taking on the government, constructively. Else, he should step aside & allow more effective ones to take over; the Congress, otherwise, is a tottering edifice waiting to crumble.

It is clear that the Congress post the disastrous performances in all elections starting with the State elections in 2012 can still revive provided they work on a structured logic & strategy rather than making effete attempts at protecting the family. The party does not need a “Godfather” but a “Few Good Men”. Effective state level leaders given a freedom to perform, articulate spokespersons, who can put forward the viewpoint of the party effectively & think tanks consisting of erudite personnel who can weave an effective ideological counter can ensure that the grand old party of India has a fresh lease of life.

Life-Sutra: Small Mistakes; Large Consequences

While traversing through the journey of life we are prone to commit mistakes-willingly sometimes, unwittingly many a times; learning from our follies help us evolve into fine, successful individuals. It is pertinent to note that an intelligent person learns from the mistakes of others, a normal one learns from his own while an idiot does neither. Suffice to say that there is no shortage of idiots in this world.

The following mistakes are generally committed

Unwilling to seek help: If something is incomprehensible, logic demands that we seek the help of a knowledgeable personal, if not an expert, to understand the nuances. However, ego prevents us from seeking help leading to disastrous consequences. A student who does not understand certain maths concepts is wary of raising a query in class fearing guffaws of fellow classmates. A professional, in a company, when faced with doubts, fears to tread to his superior’s cabin fearing rejection or worse still assuming that revelation of his ignorance shall effect his annual rating. The protagonists, in both the cases, either try to clear their doubts through self-study - which is no doubt fine but time consuming - or worse still slip the same under the carpet to be dusted & discovered at a later date.

Just as a building with a weak foundation collapses, so does a student or a professional unwilling to seek clarity. There is a Telugu proverb that says “Even a mother does not serve food, unless asked”. Therefore ask; shun shyness & fear of rejection & seek conceptual clarity immediately to help develop thought leadership.

Love thy profession; not money: In India a person who is neither an engineer nor a doctor is considered either “lacking in ambition” or worse still “useless”. Because of peer pressure, it is parents, mostly, who decide on a child’s career rather than allowing them the freedom to make informed choices. Such unilateral actions are courtesy parents’ unfulfilled ambitions which they are intent on achieving through their kids. In this ring fight between parental thought and a child’s ambitions, the former wins. The child’s compromise could be due to the lack of financial freedom; after all unlike the west where children move out of the home nests faster, children in India feast on at their parents’ incomes much longer.

It is not uncommon to see a kid interested in History being prodded to become a doctor while a student interested in geography systematically brain washed into becoming an engineer. Kids grow up to take up sub optimal careers which give them neither personal happiness nor growth. They fail professionally in their bid to make their parents happy. Unsatisfactory careers, coupled with the pressure to perform, in a competitive setting, in an area where they lack interest and perhaps expertise too leads to disastrous results which includes ill health as a consequence of stress.

Therefore, make your subject of interest your career, conscious of the fact that it is only a matter of time before your expertise draws money.

Don’t delay marriage seeking perfection:. In this age, people seek better halves who are professionally qualified with a high pay package to ensure financial security, beautiful or handsome as the case may be to seek conjugal bliss & high profile in-laws to seek stature & social mobility.  In this materialistic world there are many who believe that “born to a poor father is destiny while selection of a poor father-in-law is a poor choice”. Research into social mores has revealed the dark secret that delay in marriages today is due to a ceaseless quest for seeking a perfect partner; needless to say a person gets a complete package only rarely.

Late marriages have the unintended consequence of a drop in fertility leading to the lack of progeny which creates its own cycle of emotional, financial-courtesy visits to fertility clinics- & social stresses. Delay in child birth has its own after effects too. If a person marries at 35 & begets kids at 40, he is forced to work till 65-willingly or unwillingly-since Indian parents believe it is their responsibility to settle their children comfortably. Professionals who confidently convey their dream of “retiring by 40” gets their dreams quashed by this sudden brush with reality. Reality, indeed, bites.

Therefore marry between the ages of 25-30 after finishing your education & while cruising in your career. Since you are at an entry levels in an organization you have sufficient time at your disposal to spend with your better half, helping both to grow together emotionally & financially. You shall have your kids on time too. Later on in life, in your mid 30’s when you are well ensconced in middle management & potentially short of time you shall presumably have a more understanding better half.

Take feedback seriously: As individuals we shun feedback unless it is a praise of our virtues. This is largely a consequence of low emotional intelligence. A man bred in a patriarchal society does not give due credence to the feedback of his spouse  which incidentally has the potential of creating a cohesive family; born in a hierarchical society makes a person unwilling to elicit or worse still not listen to the  feedback of his subordinates. In a society distraught with “shortage of talent” it is important to carry the view that a superior is unbiased in his judgement & hence work ceaselessly on ones shortcomings. In short get prepared to take continuous feedback & strive incessantly to become “the complete man”- to make Raymond proud.

The sutras listed above are by no means comprehensive or exhaustive but working on the same shall help in redressing a majority of the problems faced by modern youth thereby helping redefine our society. 

Do we need to learn a foreign Language?

India’s HRD Minister, Smriti Irani, has courted controversy yet again, by the act of non- renewal of an MOU, originally signed in 2011, with the German government, that allowed for teaching German in about 500 odd Kendriya Vidyalayas. This action had 2 unintended consequences: a diplomatic fall out with Anjela Merkel seeking clarifications during the G-20 summit meet & parents of effected school children approaching the courts domestically. The Minister has argued that the MOU is against the 3 language policy- which is technically right - illegal & against “national interest”. While she has batted for Sanskrit & other regional languages in the 8^th schedule as the alternative there is a need to deliberate on a language policy that shall serve India’s interests well & enhance the employment opportunities of our demographic dividend.

The 3 language formula, enunciated in the National Policy Resolution, 1968 and reiterated in the National Policy on Education, 1986, provides for Hindi, English and modern Indian language (preferably one of the southern languages) in the Hindi speaking states and regional language, Hindi & English in the non-Hindi speaking States. However, in a startling revelation, Kiren Rijiju, MOS Home, in a written reply to Parliament, has indicated that states in India follow a 3+/-1 formula; Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Tripura follow a 2 language policy with Hindi left out while Hindi speaking states do not teach a south Indian language as the third language. Obviously, these actions by the states are guided by either rabid parochial interests or employment potential of such a policy.
 

12 million Indians tread with trepidation into the workforce every year, unsure if their education would provide them gainful employment. The National sample Survey (NSSO) data indicates that 10 million jobs per year were created during the previous NDA regime (1998-2004) while the figure for the subsequent UPA regime was 2.7 million per annum. Statistics, therefore, highlights that irrespective of the governments in power, a substantial chunk of the population is either not getting absorbed or worse still being underemployed, perhaps in agriculture, leading to an adverse impact on productivity. This calls for addressing the problem of unemployment with speed & dexterity; else, there is a real problem of the demographic dividend getting quickly transformed into a demographic curse & the deleterious consequences of economic inequality & social strife thereof.

To ameliorate the unemployment situation in the country, the Prime Minister has launched the “Made in India” slogan to boost manufacturing which incidentally is an extension of the previous regime’s National Manufacturing Policy (NPT) that envisages improving the share of manufacturing GDP from 16% to 25% & creating 100 million jobs by 2025. While growth in manufacturing & the consequent growth in ancillary service sector jobs, acting as a force multiple, is welcome, it is perhaps evident that absorbing the large incremental additions to the workforce would be a gargantuan task even for the most efficient of governments. The drop in recruitments in large service sectors like IT & Telecom makes the situation, indeed, precarious. The PM probably realises the gravity of the situation & hence has prompted that India should achieve its potential of providing labour force to the entire world; the data point to buttress the argument being the median age of India’s population at 27 years while the corresponding figure for China & US population is 37, Japan & Germany is 46. He has specifically pointed to the possibility of India exporting a bulk of the teachers, nurses et al to the world. I add to his pronouncements, the possibility of strengthening India’s position as the back-office of the world by providing BPO services in languages other than English which today serves as the major link language in this business. Add to that the possibility of providing blue collar workers like plumbers, electricians, mechanics, housekeepers et al apart from our regular dose of highly skilled manpower in the STEM area (science, technology, engineering & Medicine) Clearly, when we aspire to be the largest exporter of labour,  knowledge of a foreign language is critical.

The top 10 economies in the world attract the largest no of Indian students either for higher studies, employment or both & businessmen for their economic pursuits; providing an opportunity for learning languages like Mandarin, Japanese, German, French etc. should therefore be encouraged without burdening students with a 4/5 language policy. About 7 million Indians work in West Asia & knowing that this figure would only go up in future, it is but natural that we encourage the study of Arabic & Persian too. It is pertinent to note that remittances from West Asia have driven the economy of Kerala & have also helped in managing India’s Current Account deficit (CAD).

The growing cosmopolitanism in the country, courtesy labour mobility across states provides another challenge to the 3 language policy which recommends the medium of education in the mother tongue to be the best. For students who are constantly shifting across states or across countries, an “English Medium” school with Hindi as the 2^nd language & probably a foreign language as the 3^rd language would be more pertinent since they do not actually gain much learning a regional language or Sanskrit unless their express aim is to become a linguist. Likewise for a person in the non-Hindi speaking states with international ambitions knowledge of the regional language, English & a foreign language would be more useful. Therefore, rather than advocating fixed frameworks, it would be prudent to allow students to take their “Language” calls.

Thus, the current controversy is perhaps the best opportunity to evolve a better language policy with the objective of making the Indian population more mobile - nationally & internationally - & consequently more employable.

.

The Discovery of Nehru

It is apt to remember Jawaharlal Nehru, the first Prime Minister of India on his 125^th birth anniversary which has elicited diverse debates ranging from the informed to the absurd perpetuated by trolls on social media. The Congress, meanwhile, tried to ring-fence the former PM by snubbing the current one with a non-invite to a function organized to commemorate the occasion. Against this background is the need to “Discover Nehru” dispassionately just as he had discovered India.

Nehru, was educated at the Trinity College, Cambridge & Inner Temple & was born & brought up in a privileged environment. That he decided to shun the silver spoon & rush into the freedom struggle knowing fully well the consequent pains is but a strong reminder of his passion for a noble cause. While Marx did impress him, it is established that his visit to the Soviet Union in 1927 on the 10^th anniversary of the Bolshevik revolution, had a lasting impression on him & guided his economic

thought thereafter. Along with Subhas Bose & Maulana Azad, he formed the left of centre triumvirate of the Congress & amongst themselves served as Congress Presidents between1936-40. It is however pertinent to note that despite of their combined strengths, “socialism & Secularism” were enshrined into the preamble of the Indian constitution not in 1950 but in 1976. Bose & Nehru worked closely on international relations too before they fell apart due to ideological disparities.

Nehru was a romantic at heart & i am not referring to his amorous adventures alone. A secular state post partition is his legacy as much as his focus on industrialization. Focus on dams which he called the "temples of modern India", heavy industry & establishment of institutes of higher education like the IITs & IIM's to man such projects was his contribution as much as the Planning Commission that he chaired. His initiation of the atomic & space programs under Homi Bhabha, Vikram Sarabhai et al establishes him as a thinker par excellence & an excellent talent spotter. His love for democracy & the parliamentary debate it envisioned is part of folklore as much as his respect for the role of the opposition. It is however ironic that his legacy of parliamentary democracy & institution building was destroyed by his own daughter, Indira.

Nehru as a PM was also his foreign minister during the period 1947-64 & he initiated "Non-Alignment" as a policy that helped India punch beyond its weight in the international fora. Unfortunately, his successors neither had his calibre nor stature to maintain the same momentum in external affairs & India lost its heft in the world till economic liberalization & the consequent economic growth there-off reinforced her place in the comity of nations.

Nehru, however, was a man of contradictions. He botched up the J&K accession issue by rushing to the UN against Patel’s persuasions, before J&K was cleared, by the Indian armed forces, of Paki marauders. Expectedly, the UN ordered an immediate ceasefire which left about 1/3rd of J&K in Paki hands from where anti India activities continue to this day. Whether this was done to give political advantage to Sheikh Abdullah whose writ largely was restricted to areas under current Indian Territory or was it plain inaptitude is debateable. The unfilled promise of a “plebiscite” & imprisonment of the Sheikh in 1953 muddied the problem further. Contrast this with Patel’s blemish less integration of over 500 odd Indian states into the union.

While Foreign affairs was his forte it is surprising how he botched up the  Chinese border issue which led to an avoidable international conflagration. Nehru’s romantic notations prompted him towards a "forward post" policy that led to the Chinese invasion & the decimation of the Indian forces, in '62, which destroyed India’s image internationally & morale domestically. Any strategic expert would argue that such a policy could have been ordered after securing the modernization of the forces & building infrastructure in the border areas & only after securing a military advantage seek to gain territory. The other alternative was to seek an agreement by renouncing the claims on Aksai chin in lieu of a Chinese quid pro quo on the eastern flank in Tawang. Instead, he along with Krishna Menon living in a utopian world, reduced the size of the forces substantially post-independence convinced of their capacity to handle the Chinese diplomatically. It is debateable if the Henderson Brooks report that evaluated the reasons for the Indian debacle of ‘1962 did not view the role of Nehru kindly & that explains its non- release even after 50 years of its submission.

Nehru's frailties on the succession & dynasty issue are not beyond reproach. He paved the way for Indira by first making her the "Chief of staff" in the prime minister's office & later the president of the Congress Party in '59. Shastri followed Nehru before she took the position; his death under mysterious circumstances at Tashkent after winning a stupendous victory over Pakistan – an event that had all the makings of creating a new icon, probably replacing the old - keeps the grist of the rumour mills running.

Nehru's policy shifts away from the Congress party line post- independence is not widely discussed. While the congress' policy documents spoke 'federalism" & decentralized governance till Independence, the constituent assembly was forced to toe a "unitary spirit" line post Gandhiji's death. Later on, when Nehru dismissed a duly elected Communist govt in Kerala, critics could term his belief in "federalism' ephemeral.  While Indira called Nehru a "saint" who treaded into politics, the "Kamaraj plan" of '62 just after the Chinese war - that left Nehru politically bruised - marks him as an astute politician.

Thus in short, though Nehru was a bundle of contradictions, just like any other human, but his contribution towards germinating democracy in India has to be appreciated. After all his contemporaries like Mao, Chang kai Shek, Sukarno, Jomo Kenyatta, Nkrumah etc preferred to lapse into authoritarianism while he steadfastly struck to democracy & institution building.

Farewell UPA-II

During UPA1 (2004-09), growth rates zoomed & there was a “feel good” factor around. The RTI (Right to Information) Act gave UPA 1 as well as the NAC (National advisory council) much needed credibility. The question of “dual power centres” was raised only in hushed tones and it had not reached a crescendo yet. High growth rates and higher tax revenue thereof gave the government room to spend more on social security- doles in short like the MNREGA which increased rural per capita incomes and hence spurred higher consumption which delighted the private sector. Deeper penetration into rural became the mantra for the private sector thereby blurring the urban rural divide in terms of aspirations & goods bought there-off. The Indo-US nuclear deal pushed through by the PM, Manmohan Singh, gave the government an image of a progressive regime keen on ensuring the energy security of India. The middle class saw one amongst themselves at the high seat of democracy, in the PM’s chair, and applauded his actions. He was “Maun Mohan” but had not got that sobriquet yet; he was seen to be acting if not speaking.  People were optimistic of a better future. The electorate reposed their faith in the government of the day and UPA-II happened.

Yet in all such optimism, what was forgotten was that the best time to implement reforms is when the going is good and not necessarily when hit by a crisis-of the 1991 kind. This is the minimum expected from a pragmatic & visionary leadership. While higher growth and the “trickle-down effect” leads to a spurt in per capita incomes and jobs thereof, the higher tax revenues as a consequence of higher growths help governments to augment social security spends. This if supported through good execution enhances goodwill of the incumbent increasing the probability of the dispensation being voted back to power-an avowed aim of every party.  However the government was guilty of inaction on several fronts-subsidy reduction, passenger fare rationalization, at al. In fact oil subsidy reduction measures, initiated by the NDA government were discontinued. Railways under Lalu and subsequently other leaders of the UPA coalition saw no upside in passenger fares. All this and more led to the catastrophe that followed a few years later. The financial crisis of 2008, an international phenomenon, only made matters worse.

 As per the research conducted by Neelkanth Mishra, director Equity Research, Credit Suisse most important reforms took six to eight years from conceptualisation to having a meaningful impact on economic growth and jobs. As an example, the government started work of national highways in 1998 and the Cabinet approved the first phase in 2001, but road length constructed started to become meaningful only by 2004-05 & the true economic impact in terms of enhanced inter-state trade was felt a few years later. Likewise in private sector insurance, the interim regulator was set up in 1996, and the regulator (Irda) in 1998 while the companies then took a few years to be approved and formed, it was only after 2004 that these companies grew large enough for their hiring to become meaningful. The Electricity Act of 2003, which triggered the substantial increase in private sector capacity in power generation, only started to show up in accelerated power capacity addition by 2010-11, eight years late. Numerous other reforms show such lags too, like the impact of banking regulation changes, the introduction of value-added tax, and opening of the telecom sector. By the same logic, it would be fair to infer that inaction on the reform process during 2004-09 came to haunt the UPA-II government. Many actions of the UPA-I such as shifting of goalposts in the 2G issue, lack of putting in place an auction mechanism for coal block allocation which ultimately led to the coal-gate scam made matters worse.

While the inaction of UPA-I was as responsible for the drop in growth in UPA-II as much as the fragile international environment, the government, unfortunately, has been depicting the international forces as the sole villain. Surprisingly the government appropriates the entire credit for the high growth during 2004-08 period without giving due credit to the healthy global economy and the consequent tailwinds that propelled the Indian economy during the said period but blames the international headwinds for the despicable state of our economy now. The current RBI governor Raghuram Rajan was more forthright when he said in an interview that one third of the dip in the Indian growth rate was contributed due to international forces and two third by domestic forces.

The blame game doesn’t end there. Apart from “international financial headwinds”, the government is busy blaming an interventionist Judiciary, an overzealous CAG and an unsupportive RBI for the mess. The reality is that the problems lay elsewhere.

 Let us look at each of the three institutions who have been vilified by the government & evaluate if there is any substance in the government’s grouse.

Judiciary- The government holds the judicial activism in the 2G issue as an unnecessary intrusion into the executive’s domain. The point to be noted is that the judiciary did not take up the issue suo motto but was dragged into the fray as a consequence of an appeal by the aggrieved parties.

The telecom industry went through a mess post the first round of licences issued in mid-1990’s. The high licence fees quoted by the operators and their consequent inability to pay them upfront created a precarious situation. However, the NTP (New Telecom policy) of 1999 and the introduction of “revenue share” regime brought the sector back on track. The Introduction of CPP (Calling party pays) in 2003 led to the explosion of telecom penetration, which was till then in single digits. TRAI, DOT and the telecom ministry were praised for their interventions. Against this background, when UPA 1 initiated the process of issuing new licences, people from their past experience optimistically expected increased competition to lead to additional consumer benefits & additional job creation.

The expectations could have been achieved but for the bureaucracy-Industry-ministry nexus, the lust for “supernormal profits” by a select few & the “first come first serve logic” with the attendant shifting of goalposts that led to the telecom tangle. Needless to say, when aggrieved parties approach the judiciary, the latter is duty bound to intervene to uphold the spirit of the law and not shrug off their responsibility citing executive and legislative prerogative. 122 telecom licenses, rightly, were cancelled and telecom, which was a robust and high growth sector till then ended in a mess. Is it therefore right to blame the judiciary for the mess, when it was the executive’s flip flops that led to its creation in the first place?

Following the clamour of “judicial restraint” by the government, the judiciary perhaps took a “hands off” stand on the issue of the legalisation of “homosexuality”.  His lordship revoked the Delhi High Court order that made homosexuality legal but gave the government freedom to push through a legislative solution to the issue. The dissenting voices across the political spectrum including a deafening silence by some of the opposition parties on the important issue of the “third gender” was disconcerting to say the least. The government of the day did not show the spine to create a political consensus & work out a legislative solution.  Finally, the honourable Supreme Court had to step in & provide a solution.

How can the government of the day prescribe judicial intervention as necessity in one of the cases and proscribe the same in another case?

CAG- The CAG under Vinod Rai only did its constitutional duty of bringing to the fore the policy deviations of the government and the consequent loss in government revenues-presumptive or real. The CAG spoke of a loss in 2G Scam based on various models including Rs 176000 crores at the extreme end. The government believed that the fig at the higher end was lapped by the media, to sensationalize, a consequence of pandering to the TRP pressures. The subsequent auctions revealed that loss did happen, although the quantum could be disputed & hence debated. The same is true of coal gate.

The question that arises is whether the CAG extended its constitutional brief or was he merely performing his duties. Even if he did extend his brief, which I do not think he did, would it be wrong of a constitutional authority to bring wrongdoings & policy deviations of the government into the public domain? The CAG’s actions, whose constitutional propriety are challenged by the government, were definitely morally right.

RBI-The Government blames the RBI for not heeding its wish for an interest rate drop. The significant point to be noted is that two RBI governors Subbarao and Raghuram Rajan have both taken the same stance prompting the FM to say that the finance ministry shall “walk alone” if need be. Clearly a relook at the situation in entirety shall delve light on the reasons behind the RBI’s actions.

The government breached the FRBMA (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act) and created an unsustainable fiscal deficit. It was partially a consequence of a “financial stimulus” package during 2008-11. There is a raging debate on whether the third stimulus was necessary, a debate raised by the current finance minister. Higher fiscal deficit and higher government borrowing thereof had the unintended consequence of “crowding out private investment” which combined with other measures spurred inflation- a tax on the poor.

While MNREGA was intended as a social security measure it had the unintended consequence of creating labour shortages during the sowing season and the increase in rural agricultural workers’ wages thereof leading to demands for increase in MSP (Minimum support price). Increase in wages and the APMC (Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee) restriction on free flow of agricultural produce prompted an inflation spiral. The price rise of “onions” before every election prompts conspiracy theories of a quid pro quo arrangement of election funding & a consequent government inaction on “black-marketing” and artificial shortages. Surprisingly, hoarding is not the exclusive domain of the private entrepreneurs alone. The government is the largest hoarder of food grains in the country. The food and civil supplies minister did not heed the court directive to explore possibility of market intervention to cool prices. Not sure why. Are we staring at another scam of the NSEL variety where stocks were shown only on paper?

The government has greater fiscal levers at its command as compared to the fewer monitory levers at the RBI command. The nominal interest rates are a function of real rate plus inflation rate. The government makes no attempts to reduce inflation but demands from the RBI a lowering of interest rates which needless to say is harsh on the depositors since they would have to live on a real rate of interest which is negative. Just because industry is demanding a lowering of interest rates, is it morally right to deprive depositors of a hedge against inflation?  Is it not the problem of a negative real rate of interest that is pushing investors to put their money into real estate & gold? The government, instead of appealing to the patriotic fervour and asking them to desist from buying gold, should make financial investments more attractive. Allowing the RBI to do its job is the first step.

Way forward

The problems of UPA-II are entirely due to its own policy paralysis. 2G, coal gate, CWG, scams led to public outrage which found an outlet through the IAC (India against corruption) movement. This was followed by the formation of an AAP government in Delhi. However scams of the Augusta Westland & Robert Vadra variety still followed. If that was not enough, the government stooped to conquer through the “Retrospective taxation law” which sent across an image of a perverse regime to the international community. Its Foreign policy was non coherent & defence preparedness weak due to delayed modernization plans. Inability to handle the exchange of enclaves with a friendly regime in Bangladesh as well as “neither bark nor bite” when Chinese troops entered into Indian Territory convinced people of a regime which was on the brink of a precipice. Closer home, UPA-II could not enter into any meaningful agreements with the opposition to make parliament work which gave an impression of an egoist government if not an ineffective government unable to engage with an intransigent opposition. Therefore the Congress’s attempt to blame events beyond its control & institutions simply does not help.

Could the government have acquainted itself better? Yes, by engaging the services of a better communication team comprising Sachin Pilot, Sashi Tharoor, Anand Sharma, Chidambaram, Kapil Sibal, & Manish Tiwari apart from the regulars Abhishek Singhvi and Sanjay Jha as the official spokespersons. Surely they could have communicated better & influenced public opinion.  As an example, if opposition ruled states did not agree with coal block auctions the “Coal Gate” mess created is as much a UPA baby as much as it is of the opposition. However the opposition, which itself has many skeletons to hide in the states they rule apart from their complicity in Coal gate, have put up a better show at defending themselves on national television as well as the press.

It is however to UPA-II’s credit that they did become active during the last 1.5 years of their tenure and have initiated several measures including the constitution the CIC (Cabinet committee of Investment) to accelerate investment & RTF (Right to Food) as a social security tool. As usual, they have not been able to market either their social security tool “Right to Food” or their political risky venture of pushing through Telangana with gusto. They shall lose badly in Seemaandhra and in all probability won’t get to form a government in Telengana on their own. That has been the story of UPA-II, of “Missed opportunities”.

With election results expected on May 16, we shall see the formation of a new government. Whether it would be a NDA government or a Third front government is a realm of conjecture. However one thing is for sure. The UPA shall not be forming the next government. Farewell UPA-II.