Strategic Foreign Policy levers for the World Powers of the 21st Century: US, China & India

The globe has seen the emergence & eclipse of “World Powers” due to foreign policy imaginations or blunders respectively; Spain & Portugal were preeminent powers of the 15^th & 16^th centuries eclipsed by UK & France during the 17^th to 19^th centuries, only to be replaced by the USSR & the USA after the 2^nd World war. Post the breakup of the Soviet Union, in 1991, the world passed through a unipolar world order - the US being the sole superpower - but is now delicately poised to witness the emerge of China as a rival to the US with India playing the role of a  “swing power”.

Brief History

Spain & Portugal facing blockage to land routes to the East from the Venetians & the Turks, triumphed vide exploration of the seas, because of better ships, maps & navigation techniques to discover new lands & achieved great power status; The Treaty of Tordesillas, 1494, divided the world into two halves, with lands east of the line, 370 leagues west of the Cape Verde islands, off the coast of Africa, allocated to the Portuguese & the west  - largely continental Americas  minus Brazil – apportioned to Crown of castile (Spain) & was attested by a Papal bull. They lost their eminence due to cruel colonialism – lack of empathy for the locals, forced conversions due to missionary zeal, plunder of the local economies – & entering into unnecessary wars that sapped their strength.  Prince Phillip’s loss of the Spanish Armada, in 1588, is widely chronicled to have led to the end of Spanish dominance & beginning of Great Britain's rise. Later, in the 20^th century, the UK too lost the pride of place due to the World wars while the USSR broke up because the cold war arms race forced her to spend more than a proportionate share of its GDP. An aspiring world power like India should guard against the same mistakes. Other takeaways from history

Takeaway 1: A country can secure a permanent great power status not by fighting wars incessantly but by instilling the fear of deterrence.

Takeaway 2: All prospective world powers gained market access in foreign countries initially to expand their markets & enhanced their sources of raw materials to build economies of scale domestically that eventually helped in achieving a trade surplus that funds the rise.

Way Forward

In 2017, the US is the largest economy with a GDP of $19.4 trillion (2^nd in PPP - Purchasing Power Parity terms at $19.4 Trillion), followed by China at $12.2 trillion economy (1^st in PPP terms at $23 trillion) & India  6^th at $2.6 trillion ( 3^rd largest in PPP terms at $9.4 Trillion) It is sane to conclude, therefore, that India shall become the 3^rd largest economy in absolute terms before 2035 & shall hence play the role of a “swing” power perhaps riding on the principle of “strategic autonomy”.

Great powers, to achieve strategic objectives, have relied on “capacity”:  economic strength, military might & soft power. While higher GDP size allows leeway for greater military spends it is prudent to use “soft power” in the interim till the economic & military might achieve critical mass.

The rise of the US was due to the following farsighted foreign policy principles followed

Tenet 1: Dominate the International Financial ecosystem through the World Bank & the IMF: A US representative lords over the World Bank while ally EU's representative heads the IMF thereby retaining a stranglehold on the world’s financial architecture, helping to prise open world markets

Tenet 2: Checkmate Communist spread by creating the Military alliances NATO & SEATO: NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) was created, in 1949 & SEATO (South East Asia Treaty Organization), in 1954, to counter communist rise in Europe & South East Asia respectively. Ultimately, the cold war arms race was deliberately targeted to ensure the breakup of the Soviet Union in a bid to finish off an alternative to Western Capitalism. 

Tenet 3: Dominate World Trade with the creation of GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs & Trade) earlier & WTO (World Trade Organization) later:

Tenet 4: Soft Power: Education, Music & Movies: Attract foreign students to study in US universities & expect some of them to return to their homelands & rise in the bureaucracy or political hierarchy & help US vide diplomatic leverage in later years. Culturally influence foreign citizens with western music & hollywood even while American companies like Coke. McDonalds etc. fan consumerism.

Tenet 5: Selective push to democracy & human rights: Even while hobnobbing with the dictators of Middle East for oil security & leaders of Latin America & South East Asia as committed vassals, the US conveniently pushed for democracy & human rights as & when prudent to achieve geopolitical objectives.

In short the US pushed ideology – democracy & capitalism even as she tried to crush communism - & has tried to dominate world trade & financial architecture.

Competition to the US

The Soviet Union & Japan emerged as worthy challengers to the US in the post WW2 world order but even at the peak of their economic prosperity their economies never crossed 60% of the US GDP; the pacifist constitution, imposed on Japan, post WW2, ensured that she never emerged as a military power. While the Nixon - Kissinger plan of opening up to China in 1972 was meant to checkmate the USSR, China, has emerged as a competitor to the US & has already crossed the 60% of US GDP mark, in absolute terms & 118% of GDP in PPP terms; she is poised to surpass the US GDP in absolute terms by 2031 posing a credible challenge to the numero -uno.

Even while the dystopian Trump administration is busy corroding their country’s past foreign policy tenets, China is appropriating the space vacated by the sole superpower to gain acceptability. While Trump withdraws from the Paris climate change commitments, threatens to cut off support to the UN  & subvert the WTO (Tenet 4) by launching unilateral trade sanctions, China, surprisingly, calls for a rules based world order even as she refuses to accept the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the law of the sea) order on her territorial claims in the South China Sea. China is also building an alternative financial & political structure with the following objectives.

(A)Rival the financial architecture of the West by launching the BRICS Bank (New Development bank) & AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank)

(B)Create a rival to the Marshall Plan - that funded post WW2 reconstruction in Europe & Japan - vide the BRI (Belt & Road initiative) to fund infra expansion in foreign countries thereby gain ing diplomatic leverage.

(C)Build an alternative ideology – Communism with Chinese Characteristics - to Western Capitalism

(D)Push for Chinese Soft power: Mandarin language vide Confucius institutes

China’s Failures

Prudence demands that a successful world power avoid creating a troubled neighbourhood. While the Spain-Portugal rivalry led to the desecration of both the powers; later the UK-France tussle led to the same consequences. The US, on the contrary, kept neighbours comfortable – initially with the "Monroe doctrine", in 1823, to oppose European colonialism in the Americas, & later vide the "Roosevelt Corollary" in 1904, that announced US right to intervene in the internal affairs of any Latin American Country - in case of flagrant & chronic wrongdoing - thereby carving its sphere of influence, & thereafter strengthened its influence further with trade deals, in 1994, of the NAFTA (North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement) kind - with Mexico & Canada. Trump is currently unravelling the time tested initiatives.  China – by claiming the entire South China Sea disingenuously– vide the nine dashed line- & border disputes with countries like India, Vietnam etc.  is annoying her neighbours who, eventually, could join hands impeding the ‘Middle Kingdom’s” rise. China is keen that the South China Sea & the Indian Ocean are recognized as her sphere of influence.

India’s Options:

While India aspires to be a "World Power", her "Regional Power Status" is being challenged by China in her assumed traditional sphere of influence of the Indian Ocean Region. Checking China's intrusion, for the next 20 years, can only be achieved vide the Quad - US, India, Australia &Japan - with flexibility allowed to countries in South East Asia like Vietnam to join hands with the grouping. Meanwhile, India should attempt to become $10 trillion economy before 2035 & a steadily growing GDP –perhaps over 8% annually -  would automatically help her build her military might; she should exponentially expand her soft power, in the interim, incapable as she currently is in terms of matching Chinese FDI/Infra investments in various countries.

Proposed Indian Foreign Policy tenets

(a)Propagate soft power:

·         Yoga, Ayurveda, Music – Carnatic & Hindustani - & Movies – Bollywood & Regional Cinema

·         Replicate the US example in of attracting foreign students to Indian Universities

·   Strengthen National Disaster Relief Organization to provide services across Indian Ocean countries

(b)Attract Capital to spur growth rate & become 2^nd largest economy by 2050:

(c )Indigenization of military equipment to build a military industrial complex with exports

(d )Alternate narrative to Chinese One Language, One Culture with empathy on diversity: While China is trying to push the narrative of uniformity - Han Chinese with one language – Mandarin – India should encourage the growth & development of an alternative model of racial unity amongst her 3 races – Aryans, Dravidians & Mongoloids – 7 religions – Hindus, Buddhists, Jains, Sikhs, Christians, Muslims & Jews across languages – 22 official & other sub dialects. Most of the African countries have the same diversity of tribes as in India & would be keen to replicate the Indian model if found viable.

(e)Strengthen WTO & sneak in labour mobility:  The median age for India is 28 while that of China is 38 & the US 42; thus India with a youthful population should attempt to push for labour mobility to ensure that Indian manpower can secure jobs abroad. Training people on foreign languages – Japanese, German, French,  Spanish, Arabic & Persian – should, therefore, be encouraged.

Conclusion

Transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order is real & if India positions herself as “what China is not” she can emerge as a leader.