Kim Trumps Meet

North Korean Chairman, “Little Rocket Man”, Kim Jong Un met “Bigger Button”, Donald Trump, at the Capella resort, Singapore on 12^th June’18 &  signed an agreement - on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. The joint statement, low on specifics, without milestones prompted critics to conclude that Kim won round 1; Trump suspended US- South Korean war games to instil trust while Kim conceded nothing even while Trump proclaimed that Kim has promised to destroy a missile engine testing site though not listed as part of the agreement.  Trump admirers, hyperbolically though, liken the meet, to the Mao-Nixon meet, of 1972, that transformed global geopolitics.  US Vice President, Mike Pence & NSA, Bolton earlier spoke on the “Libyan model” to settle the North Korean issue, clearly, indicating that the US was not keen on talks but was forced into it by its ally South Korea; President Moon Jae In of South Korea, desirous of peace, opened up channels of communication with Kim who responded by agreeing to field a joint Korean team - which marched under a “unification flag” depicting the peninsula, during the Pyeongchang winter Olympics - in Feb’18, & the opening ceremony was graced by Kim’s sister Kim Sol-Song accelerating goodwill.

Brief History of North Korea

North Korea has a military of 1.2 million – comparable to India - & is a nuclear & missile power; at $40 billion, her GDP is lower than the Indian annual military spends & that explains the poverty of its citizens. The “hermit kingdom” thus leads a recluse life with its citizenry denied access to the world in a bid to protect the dynastic regime.

Japan colonized Korea in 1910 & post the loss, in WWII the peninsula was divided, across the 38^th parallel, amongst the victors -  North Korea supported by the Soviet Union & South Korea supported by the US;  Kim’s grandfather – Kim II Sung – the dictator for North Korea, prompted by the USSR invaded the South on June 25^th 1950, to be resisted by the South with US support; the North forces were driven back by the US forces under General MacArthur & as they approached the Yalu river – the dividing line between North Korea & China – Mao’s China entered the war theatre & the joint forces repulsed the Southern forces  to the 38^th parallel when an armistice – not a peace treaty - was pronounced on July 23^rd 1953 creating a 2 mile wise “demilitarized zone” that still exists; thus the two Korea’s are technically at war even today which the Moon-Kim meet has brought to an end on April 27^th 2018 vide the “Panmunjom declaration”;  reconciliation is a first step, perhaps, leading into an association & eventual reunification.

The Key players in the conflict have different strategic goals to achieve & it will be interesting to see how the same pans out

South Korea: President Moon knows that in the event of a war, the South could be the first casualty – due to its proximity to the North – although North Korea can inflict damage much beyond by  launching nuclear tipped missiles that can reach Guam, Atlanta & California in the US or Japanese territories. The US has a military base in South Korea hosting about 28000 US soldiers & installed THAAD missile defence system, in Sept ’17, which led to local protests. The missile defence system is placed on a company - Lotte group - land & China sensing threat from the same has ordered closure of all 74 Lotte stores in China & prompted its citizens to shun South Korean products – impacting trade - banned Chinese tour groups from visiting South Korea - effecting tourism income - & cancelled appearances of South Korean pop & movie stars; this is a signal to all the countries in the region – including Japan – not to get the THAAD system installed in their territories & the economic pain that could be inflicted if her warnings go unheeded.

Moon – the pragmatist – wants peace & is nudging a reluctant US towards his goal & proposed a Noble Peace Prize to imperious Donald Trump as a bait to get his endorsement of the peace initiative; Trump, facing flak for his impetuosity & a downward spiral in approval ratings at home & the Mueller probe gaining stream and desperate for a policy win appears amenable to the same; he could squeeze the issue dry during the mid -term elections poised for Nov. this year.

China: The People Republic of China had proposed a “freeze” for a “freeze” – freeing of North Korean Missile & Nuclear tests in lieu of the freeze of the South Korean – US joint military exercises. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, North Korea lost its ideological mentor & was propped up by China to checkmate US & its allies – Japan & South Korea – by surreptitiously offering them missile technology just as they supported Pak – by offering them nuclear technology – to constrain India. Benazir Bhutto, in 1993, then Prime Minister of Pakistan, exchanged nuclear designs for missile blueprints with North Korea completing the proliferation picture.  

Surprisingly, Kim did not demand that the US vacate the South Korean military bases despite Chinese prodding in a bid to expand her geopolitical ambitions post the US withdrawal. Clearly, Kim does not want to depend on one benefactor – China- alone & wants to open up to the West – especially the US to enhance his options even while President Xi of China has forced Kim to meet him twice before the Kim- Trump meet & by making arrangements for Kim to fly to Singapore in an “Air China” flight reiterated that China cannot be side-lined. China is wary of the warming US- North Korean ties & the possibility of the US using North Korea as a strategic balancer in the region to hedge against the rise of China; she is however, chary of the possibility of the North Korean citizens crossing the borders into China in the event of a Korean conflict. In short China desires peace in the Korean peninsula with US withdrawal & North Korea continuing to remain a vassal state.

US: The sole superpower signed agreements in 1994 during Clinton’s presidency & in 2005 under POTUS George Bush only to see them dissipate because of non-compliance.  In 1994, when North Korea threatened to exit the NPT, the Clinton administration’s “agreed framework” promised aid in lieu of nuclear freeze only to see it unravel by 2002 & North Korea moved out of the NPT in 2003 to restart its nuclear facilities thereby inviting sanctions again. 6 party talks involving the US, China, Russia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea followed & a deal was struck in 2005 only to break down by 2009 with disputes on verification.

The US is now insistent on a “Complete, Verifiable, and Irreversible Denuclearization” (CVID) & having annulled the Iran deal struck by President Obama has denied North Korea a similar deal & might not offer them a deal offered to India, in 2006, either.

North Korea: In an opaque regime, Kim is viewed as paranoid character who got his mentor, uncle Jang Song Thaek, executed, in 2013 & his half-brother Kim Jong Nam, killed, in Malaysia, in 2017,in a nerve agent attack as punishment for plotting with China to topple his regime; that explains his distrust of China. He carried his own lavatory to Singapore since he did not want to leave even his poop in foreign shores & the presence of his sister switching Trump’s pens to his own while signing the agreement buttresses the assessment. That he replaced 3 of his senior generals seen as hardline with youngers moderate ones indicates that he aspires to genuinely open up to the west to expand his options beyond China & wind down sanctions. His nuclear test site at Punggye Ri was destroyed in May’18 while testing & he blew up the entire site in front of world reporters to accomplish a fait accompli in a bid to buttress his credentials.

It is possible that post the US invasion of Iraq, in 2003, that led to Saddam Hussein ouster on the illusory pretext of the presence of WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) & NATO forces killing Muammar Gaddafi, of Libya, in 2011,post his agreement to freeze the nuclear ambitions, the North Korean regime is wary & will stop at nothing to protect the regime. It will be interesting to see how the US reconciles to Kim’s likely demand to retain at least some nuclear weapons with delivery systems for regime preservation; mere "security guarantees" might not suffice. 

Conclusion:

Kim would want to maintain some nuclear arsenal with delivery systems as insurance for his regime & Trumps public pronouncements on “phased denuclearization” at variance with Pompeo’s CVID could help in taking the talks forward. Kim has initiated reforms at home in agriculture & industry & perhaps would be keen to follow the fellow Communist countries – China & Vietnam - model of reforms but with a single party dominance & western nations could help with investments going forward. The US shall not vacate the military bases in South Korea even as she gets a foothold into the North due to the mistrust between North Korea & China on the coup issue.

As Trump conceded that the process of achieving the objective would take close to a decade. Reality TV relies on attracting eyeballs & the Trump-Kim surreal show did just that bringing two tempestuous unpredictable characters to shake hands even while their deputies wring their hands to arrive at a consensus that satisfies conflicting aims of several nations.