Have China & Pakistan done a better Strategic job than India?

 

Posing the above question could surprise many, recently served glowing tributes, in op-eds’, commemorating the 30 year milestone of the 1991 economic reforms. The Congress party narrative flowing from its members or supporters in the media has always been to glorify the then Finance Minister, Manmohan Singh, at the expense the then Prime Minister Narsimha Rao - as a 2^nd best alternative to creating a perception that reforms were actually initiated by the Rajiv Gandhi regime, in the 1980’s, effectively shifting the goalpost away from 1991; this helps in cutting to size, people like Yashwant Sinha, who have claimed – not wrongly – that the blueprint for the reforms was prepared by the short lived Chandrasekhar regime (1990-91) & any govt. that followed would have implemented it.  Moving away from the rival claimants seeking credit, it is, perhaps, time to pose the following questions:

(1)Have successive Indian governments failed in creating  & implementing the right or optimum policies as Sino- Indian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ratio is 5:1 now unlike a 1: 1 ratio in 1978? On purchasing power parity (PPP) China & India were at the same level till 1985 unlike a 2.4: 1 ratio now & on GDP per capita, parity existed in 1990-91 as per former Indian Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Virmani.

How did we remain contented at a self-congratulatory level while China raced ahead & created a huge differential in Comprehensive National Power (CNP) – a sum of its Economic & Military might?

Even during the parity age China beat India, convincingly, in the 1962 war. Since, during the Korean War (1950-53), they took on a much stronger power – the US with its attendant nuclear arsenal that had recently brought Japan to its knees in 1945 -  does it indicate that it had a greater risk appetite, unflinching in protecting its national interests?

(2)Has Pakistan – with a fraction of the Indian GDP - done a better job than India?

Indian economy is 11 times Pak's (Pak $266Billion; India $2900 billion in 2019-20) & Military Budget 7 times (Pak $10.4 billion; India & $72.9 billion as per Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI). Despite such a humongous lead, India has not been able to enforce deterrence on export of terror, resolve disputes or gain territory – post the acquisition of Siachen in 1984- while neighboring China, with acquired advantages only over the last 40 years vis a vis India, has been successful at least into creeping acquisitions? Does this mean that we have failed in our Military policy too – a blame that our armed forces should shoulder too for pushing a manpower heavy structure instead of a Tech focused one?

Analysis of Question 1

India gained independence in 1947 & the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seized power in 1949; hence it is fair to claim a similar starting point for both nations. The Chief of the Prime Minister Economic Advisory Committee (PMEAC) Bibek Debroy, in an article wrote that Indian growth rate during the Nehru years (1947-1964) rivalled that of Asian tigers  Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan & South Korea.

Growth dipped due to the costs incurred in fighting wars – 1962, 1965 & 1971 - & the ill-advised nationalization drive during the Indira Gandhi years apart from failed monsoons & the oil crisis. During the same period China passed through its own challenges – Korean war (1950-53), Indian war (1962) Vietnam war (1978) – economic disasters like the great leap forward (1958-62) & the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976). We were for long led to believe that Deng Xiaoping initiated economic reforms in 1978 while India did so only in 1991 & the 13 year lag reflects in our growth trajectories. However, if the Congress party’s narrative of Rajiv Gandhi initiating reforms is applied, the gap shrinks & China being 5x India, in GDP terms now, leads us to the following conclusions:

(a)India Gandhi was an economic disaster who surrendered the economic gains of the Nehruvian years apart from destroying democratic institutions; she has a better record on Indian external security though – hiving of Pakistan into Bangladesh (1971), Nuclear test (1974), Sikkim incorporation (1975) & Siachen acquisition (1984). Off course she has to share the credit for those achievements with her R&AW chief RN Kao & General Manekshaw. Her record on internal security, though, is blighted for initially propping up Bhindranwale to tame the Akalis & conducting operation Bluestar, thereafter, to tame the rebel, in 1984, that created the Punjab problem, solved later by the irreplaceable KPS Gill.

Takeaway 1: Never polarize society for political gains as it has National Security implications.

(b)While West Germany & Japan gained via US investments under the post-World War II reconstruction effort (Marshall Plan) & in 30 years emerged as economic powerhouses, did India squander the opportunity in our quest for “strategic autonomy”? Incidentally, “Non Alignment” appeared a farce after we signed the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship & Co-operation in 1971.

Yes, a passive constitution was imposed on Germany & Japan to prevent their military rise & as losing powers of WWII they had no option but to comply. But they displayed amazing resilience in the economic sphere in 30 years, something we have failed to emulate. China meanwhile gained via becoming a Permanent Member of the United Nations in 1971, weaned itself closer to the US in 1972 – by offering itself as a bulwark against the USSR despite ideological affinity - & secured Western investments thereafter without compromising its Military & Foreign Policy. Today it rivals the US challenging the unipolar world order.

Takeaway 2: Seize the geopolitical opportunity to make India an attractive bet to balance China. Do to China what the it did to the USSR.

(3)Leaders off all hues – the Congress, the BJP, the Janata govt (1977-80) or the United Front (1996-98) perhaps have given us sub optimal policies reveling in the chaos of a rambunctious Indian democracy. As examples GST (Goods & Service Tax) has taken more than a decade from conceptualization to becoming a law while the inter service rivalry has delayed the implementation of "Jointness" in the armed forces commands; US created joint Theatre commands in 1986, Russia in 2008 & China in 2013 while it is still work in progress in India. The BJP opposed FDI in Retail, in 2012, during the Congress regime but implemented 100% FDI in single brand retail in 2017; The Congress opposed the BJP government’s attempts to increase FDI in Insurance, in 2014 - a proposal it unsuccessfully pushed hard while in power. Is it fair for any party to merely oppose a legislation to deny credit to the other, when protection & acceleration of national interests should be the sole objective?

Takeaway 3: Civil society & a vigilant media should question leadership on lack of policy consistency to prevent delay of India’s rise.

Analysis of Question 2

Shekhar Gupta, of The Print, writes that when he visited Pakistan in the 1980’s –as a young journalist – he was amazed at their standard of living there that was better than Indian Punjab – an outlier state in economic prosperity.  Unlike India where journalists and a hard time booking “Trunk calls” he writes that Pak had better telecom infra too. GDP per capita of Pakistan was 1.54 times India in 1970 & we crossed Pak only in 2006 & strengthened lead consistently; in 2019 Indian GDP per capita  is 1.63x Pak as per Statistics Times.

Unlike India which has weaker neighbors - in the South & East - Pak battles what it sees as an existential threat, India, in the East, claiming Jammu & Kashmir; In the North is Afghanistan (Af) – which had never accepted the Durand line effectively making Khyber Pakhtunkhwa a disputed province & a Shia dominant Iran in the West, Pakistan had managed its Foreign & Military policy remarkably well – cozying up to the US & the Arab friends during the earlier decades post-Independence riding on its patron UK’s coat tails. Later it befriended China – initially by ceding the Shaksgam valley of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) in 1963 complicating the J&K dispute into a tripartite problem – & arranged for a Sino-US rapprochement in 1971. By placing itself as a frontline state supporting & training the Afghan Mujahideen, against the occupying Soviet forces, it secured economic & military assistance from its allies. Currently, with the US withdrawal from Af, Pak fancies a better leverage on the new govt. – at India’s expense - post the likely Taliban ascent to power.

Off course using terror as an instrument of state policy & using non state actors to cover up its CNP deficits could eventually follow the law of diminishing returns. But we must concede that Pak has done well in protecting its strategic interests; it has kept India off balance in J&K & has not conceded an inch on Sir Creek too. That analysts, including General Panag, have written about how we need to do to China what Pak has done is us, is in a way a grudging concession that Pak – despite its limited resources – has done remarkably well.

Way forward

It is time we stop hagiography of our political leaders – past & present. Obsession with a manpower centric army – when the world had moved to a technology driven one & beyond into the Cyber, Space & electromagnetic domains – indicates that the Armed forces leadership is not beyond reproach either. TV anchors berating Pak guests on prime time, to give viewers exhilaration, is merely diverting people’s attention from real issues, akin to Roman emperors keeping citizens busy with gladiatorial contests. Time for posing the right questions:

(1)What are the reasons behind the farmer agitation & the solutions thereoff? How do we improve the economic conditions in agriculture which supports 43% of our workforce? Suggestions in my blog post

https://meetrk.blogspot.com/2021/03/how-to-satisfactorily-end-indian.html

(2)What reforms does India need in the fields of Law & order – including Judiciary & police – education & healthcare? Suggestions in my blog post

https://meetrk.blogspot.com/2016/03/political-parties-in-india-havecoined.html

 (3)What are the Military reforms needed?

https://meetrk.blogspot.com/2021/08/what-military-reforms-does-india-need.html

(4)What policy initiatives beyond the PLI (Production linked Incentive), drop in taxes on manufacturing to 15% since Oct 2019 or the negation of the retrospective taxation now can spur investment & jobs to revive the country from the 2 year covid induced economic stagnation (2019-22)?

https://meetrk.blogspot.com/2020/01/india-suffered-6-consecutivequarters-of.html

 

If we don’t demand answers from our leadership we shall merely be served optics & our incompetence risks inviting ridicule from our future generations. We better make amends & shake our leadership from its stupor.