Run up towards The 2019 Parliamentary elections

A week, they say, is a long time in politics. Journalists - who were gushing at the unstoppable Modi-Shah juggernaut, post the BJP govt. formation in the North Eastern states of Tripura, Nagaland & Meghalaya – are now convinced of BJP’s vincibility, in 2019 – post the SP win in the UP by elections – with BSP support -  & the exit of the TDP from the NDA on the issue of denial of “special category status”.  Lack of rigour in analysis & swinging like trapeze artists & changing positions with each event does the profession no good.

Let us step back & analyse the current political landscape

(1)The BJP that won 282 seats in 2014, now has its nos. reduced to 276, post losing 6 of the 10 seats - it held earlier - that went to the by polls later- Ratlam (MP to INC in 2015), Gurdaspur (Punjab to INC in 2017), Alwar & Ajmer (Raj to INC in 2018), Phulpur & Gorakhpur (UP to SP in 2018) indicating the onset of anti-incumbency.

Takeaway: The GOP, the INC, has its footprint sequentially reduced from the days of Indira Gandhi & is now shrunk to fighting the BJP directly in 14 of the 29 states only: Western India(Gujarat), Central India(MP & Chhattisgarh), North Western India(Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan), Northern India(Uttarakhand & HP) & South (Karnataka, Telangana) & North East (Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh)while it is still a formidable force along with allies in 4 states: North(J&K with the NC), West(Maharashtra with the NCP; Goa), South (Kerala as UDF). The regional parties dominate the remaining landscape - largely in the South & East - prompting TMC’s Derek-o-Brein to comment that the BJP should be stopped by the regional parties in their areas of dominance while the INC does in its backyard, to propel India back into a liberal, inclusive coalition era.

 (2)BJP  ruled 6 states in 2014 – Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, Goa, & Punjab (in alliance with SAD; between 2014 to 2019, it lost Punjab but retained Gujarat in a cliff-hanger & Goa vide a coalition despite the verdict being anti-BJP.  It added 14 new states – HP, Haryana, Uttarakhand, UP, Jharkhand, Assam & runs govt. coalition governments in  Maharashtra(with Shiv Sena), J&K (with PDP), Bihar(with JDU), Tripura(with IPFT), Meghalaya(NPP), Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Nagaland riding as much on Amit Shah's poll strategy as much as on anti-incumbency against existing state governments.

Takeaway: The BJP gained massively in 2014 & beyond due to anti –incumbency against the INC & Regional parties; going forward, ruling as it does 19 of the 29 states, would it too not be at the receiving end of the same trend in both in the impending Parliamentary & Assembly elections?

(3)The State BJP CMs of the newly acquired states are generally seen as lacking in administrative acumen & might not be in a position to regain power the next time. The anti- incumbency vectors are corruption, lack of employment opportunities, & price rise. The Modi govt. which retained the sheen of being corruption free is now weighed down by the patina of the corruption in the Rafale deal, Nirav Modi's PNB scam, Jay Amit Shah’s sudden riches etc.; likewise, the govt. has not been able to show an appreciable increase in employment opportunities & the PMs allusion to “Pakoda sellers” as new jobs has ruffled feathers. Inflation was been kept in check vide an unexpected bonanza of an oil price drop & a public policy decision to go for a minor rise in MSP; however, the latter decision has led to rural angst & rise in farmer suicides; the farmer march in Maharashtra is a consequence of the same malady.  The usual suspects are thus now rising in unison.

Takeaway: There are issues to corner the Modi govt. if the opposition can weave the right narrative taking advantage of the emerging situation. With Nitish co-opted, Chidambaram entangled in legal mess & Rahul suffering from the “pappu jibes” & Mamata & Mayawati unable to acquire the leadership of the opposition mantle it will a case of “distributed leadership” fighting the BJP’s electoral machine which in a way is good for the opposition since a direct fight between an opposition leader & Modi would make the contest “Presidential” – a situation NaMo shall savour.

(4)While the TDP had existed the coalition & initiated a no confidence motion against the govt. the BJP could win this round but is precariously placed since Uddhav Thackeray of the  Shiv Sena has already announced that they would contest the 2019 elections without the BJP, Naresh Gujral of the SAD has opined that the single party rule is off in 2019 & the BJP should therefore consult its allies more while the JD(U) in Bihar is sulking for want of special category status & more representation at the centre.

Takeaway: The NDA is in a mess & in a bid to dominate from the "Panchayat to Parliament" the BJP is in no mood to apply the balm.

Against this background we could reasonably make the following predictions for the next parliamentary elections

(a)The BJP would suffer from anti-incumbency & is unlikely to repeat its 2014 performance:  Gujarat (26/26), Rajasthan (25/25), Haryana (7/10), Madhya Pradesh (27/29), Chhattisgarh (10/11), Maharashtra (23/48); it would lose about 50 seats in these states. A neck & neck fight between the INC & the BJP is thus predicted in 2019 with each party winning about 140 seats.

(b)In UP, a SP-BSP-INC combination with a vote share close to 50% could potentially sweep the polls; however since arithmetic might not translate into chemistry, the coalition is predicted to win 60 seats, unless a Ram Janmabhoomi agitation, perhaps, post an adverse judgement, in Oct 2018, in the Supreme Court, is likely to create polarization catapulting the BJP to about 55 seats – similar to the no. it earned in the 1990’s. That would push the BJP to about 175 seats - still about 100 seats short of a majority.

(c)Despite leaders like KCR wanting to lead the third front, it appears more a strategy to sweep polls in their home state i.e. do what Modi did in Gujarat, or Jaya in TN or Mamata in WB, in 2014 – thereby becoming a  kingmaker rather than a king, in 2019.

(d)Allies view the BJP leadership as arrogant, non-consulting & intent on playing a zero sum game; this makes acquiring new friends / allies pre or post poll difficult for the BJP.

Conclusion

With Ram Janmabhoomi agitation/building a temple likely to spur “polarization” & a skirmish in the Pak border or Indian intervention in Maldives to ratchet up “nationalism” a possibility, it is feasible for the BJP to emerge as the single largest party but due to lack of friends/allies, it would be forced to cede power to the INC to form the govt. with the support of the regional parties.