Year 2017: The 12 Milestones that Shaped India

Post the shock of the Trump victory in the US & demonetization (DeMo) closer home, India woke up to the year 2017 pregnant with possibilities & the year did not disappoint. The BJP election juggernaut - led by General Modi & his Squire, Amit Shah – rolled into new territories & end 2017, rule 19 states in India – 1 more than Indira Gandhi at the peak of her career. However, the onset of memes on Modi – including the one by Shyam Rangila on Star Plus – corruption charges against Jay Amit Shah by “The Wire” & the INC’s performance in Gujarat have brought back the spring in the opposition steps; the winds of change seem to have started, gently for sure.

The 12 milestones of the year

ISRO creates world record: Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) launched 104 satellites from a single rocket – PSLV – in Feb, beating the record set, earlier, by Russia with 37 satellites. While PSLV can carry a payload less than 2000 Kg, the next gen GSLV can carry heavier satellites up to 5000Kg; Space X, Russia & EU have satellites with a carrying capacity between 9000 – 23000Kg.  Despite having the lowest cost of launch, India is constrained by the PSLV’s carrying capacity. Of the overall space market of $323 billion India’s Antrix Corp earns $66 million. India should attempt to get at least a 1/3^rd share of this lucrative market in a 5 year timeframe.

Union Budget Preponed; Railway Budget is History: India followed the colonial practice of presenting the Indian budget at 5PM, on the last working day of Feb, to coincide with the Budget presentation in British parliament at 1130 am GMT; this practice was discontinued, in 2001, by Finance Minister, Yashwant Sinha & in 2017, Arun Jaitley advanced presentation to the first working day of Feb. 

Usually, in the first phase of the Budget session, a “Vote on account” is obtained from Parliament to draw funds from the Consolidated Fund of India from 1^st April; full & final budget is passed with amendments in the second phase sometime in May. Outlays are available end first quarter & the 2^nd quarter is spent in finalizing deals & tenders in consonance with processes that would not play foul with the auditors of the CAG & the  CVC thereby forcing back-loaded spending in the last 2 quarters of the financial year; advancement of dates is a welcome attempt at frontloading spends. 

Advancing budget presentation further to January could help avoid passing a “Vote on Account”. NITI Aayog, in a repeat of the averments of LK Jha committee, of 1984, has recommended financial year cycle change from the current Apr-Mar cycle to 1^st Jan - 31^st Dec cycle, in line with the prevalent practice in most countries in the world, A new committee had been constituted by the govt., under former Chief Economic Advisor, Shankar Acharya, to examine the feasibility & desirability of these recommendations.

Likewise, the Railway budget, in existence, since 1924, was subsumed into the Union budget this year. Railway Ministry was generally an allies' preserve, during the coalition years, leading to sub-optimal performance & this seems to be an attempt by the govt. to steer clear of the usual practice of making annual popular announcements without financial due diligence & the consequent deplorable financial performance there-off. Hope this revives the depleting monolith of the organization.

BJP victory in UP: It is an open secret that the road to Delhi passes via Lucknow; the BJP got 282 seats, in the Lok Sabha ,in 2014, courtesy the 71 bagged in UP – the most populous state, in India, with a population of over 200 million, equal to Brazil. The BJP cemented its position by winning 312 seats in the 404 member assembly in Mar 2017 & mading Yogi Adityanath – the Hindu Hriday Mascot - the CM, revealed their game plan for 2019. The BJP’s asserted that the UP victory was an endorsement of DeMo; by Sept, though, the RBI announced that 99% of the 500 & 100 rupee DeMo notes have been returned to the financial system nullifying any possibilities of liquidating the substantial difference to be passed on as a special dividend to the govt.

For details on DeMo read http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2017/11/demonetization-in-india-first.html

5 states went to the polls in Mar with BJP winning emphatically in UP & Uttarakhand & Congress doing the honours in Punjab; despite the Congress emerging as the largest party in Goa & Manipur, the BJP pipped them to the post which is as much a commentary on the laggard pace of Congress’s decision making as much as a reflection of the BJP penchant for forming the govt. at all costs; both these trends are suicidal for democracy. 

Later, the BJP got its own candidate, Ram Nath Kovind, as President in July & Venkaiah Naidu, as VP, in Aug, cementing its position further on constitutional positions. India, thus, is transitioning from an era of anti-Congressism to anti- BJPism.

Jio becomes Paid Service: Jio started charging for its services from April 2017 after accumulating over 100 million customers during the previous 6 months of free service, accelerating industry consolidation. Idea & Voda have announced their merger, Airtel acquired Telenor & Tata’s prepaid services while Rcom discontinued its prepaid services from 1^st Dec heralding a possible 4 player scenario (Airtel, Idea-Vodafone, Jio, BSNL-MTNL) in the short term. Eventually, we might see a 3 player scenario if the govt. entities BSNL-MTNL fail to survive competition or a 2 player scenario if Idea-Voda fail to launch a quad core service – mobile, landline, broadband & TV. Massive job losses are hence a consequence not only in telcos but also in affiliated sectors: telecom infra companies, call centres, IT & networking companies.

GST era Begins: P Chidambaram mooted an indirect tax reform – GST – in the budget speech of 2005-06 & after 6 torturous years, Pranab Mukherjee presented it to Parliament, in 2011, only to be met with resistance, especially from the state of Gujarat whose CM was Modi then.  GST was finally launched on 1^st July, this year, at a midnight session of Parliament only the 4^rd time in history – 15^th Aug 1947 being the first, & the 25^th & 50^th independence anniversaries in 1972 & 1997 respectively being the other two – inviting ridicule from the opposition who termed it as another instance of Modi’s “Event Management”. Unfortunately, the stands of our political class is contingent on where they sit - ruling party or opposition benches.

Despite the initial teething troubles, it is sane to conclude that GST would help in genuinely creating “One India” & aid in plugging tax leakages & help in GDP acceleration. 11 years from conceptualization to fruition alludes to the slow pace of decision making in a parliamentary democracy forcing people to earn for a dictatorship; according to a Pew study 55% of Indians want an autocracy & 27% support a “Strong Leader”; noticeably, people above 50 years of age reject the idea, perhaps, because they experienced the emergency.

Doklam Standoff: Indian forces were mired in a standoff with the Chinese forces, for opposing the Chinese road construction activity in the India - Bhutan – China tri junction in June 2017; the standoff lasting about 3 months post which diplomacy arranged for disengagement, in Aug. In the interim, skirmishes were reported between the forces at the Pangong lake in Ladakh & brawls in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, indicative of potential areas of conflict in the days to come. Despite the agreement on withdrawal of forces, robust Chinese presence at Doklam, a departure from their regular practice of withdrawal during winter is foreboding. Indian gains beyond the patriotic euphoria amongst the citizens for staring at the dragon are debatable; Japan, incidentally, was the only country to publicly approve of the Indian action. The mistrust between the Asian giants is likely to persist with important spill over effects into the coming years.

For a long term plan to contain China read http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2017/07/how-can-india-contain-china.html

Epochal Judgements by Supreme Court: Privacy upheld & Triple Talaq held illegal. The honourable SC in a unanimous 9-0 judgement held on 24^th Aug 2017, that privacy is a fundamental right under Article 21 – Right to Life & Liberty; it is a landmark judgement that shall impact free speech, transparency, data protection, state surveillance, LGBT rights etc. The validity of Aadhar being made mandatory is left to another 5 judge bench to be decided later. Likewise, by a 3-2 judgement it held triple talaq or Talaq –e-biddat unconstitutional. Perhaps, Nikah Halala should be the next on the chopping block to provide respite to the Muslim women from exploitation.  Uniform civil code, though, should be introduced post wide consultations since inequity, inequality & gender injustice are prevalent in all religions.

Gauri Lankesh Murder: The dastardly assassination of journalist Gauri Lankesh in Bangalore, in Sept., raised issues of press freedom. With no conclusive action in prosecuting the killers of rationalists Dhabolkar, Pensare & Kalburgi, the capability of Indian investigative agencies & the political will is being severely questioned. The rise of cow vigilantism, violence & murder of innocents is likely to have long term deleterious social & political consequences imperilling Indian security.

Indian Eves Glitter: Indian women won the Asia Hockey cup after 13 years beating China 5-4 in a penalty shootout, at Japan, in Nov, ensuring automatic qualification for the World Cup next year. Mary Kom, the same month, at Vietnam, won her 5^th Asian boxing title in the 48Kg class. Shuttler PV Sindhu had a great year winning 3 of the 6 finals she reached this year. Earlier, Indian women lost the Cricket world cup final to England, in July, only by a paltry 9 runs; all in all it was a great year for Indian sportswomen.

Manushi Chillar was crowned as the new Miss World in Nov. the 6^th Indian to achieve the elusive honour.

India becomes a member of Wassenaar: India, in Dec, was admitted as the 42^nd member of the Wassenaar – a grouping that regulates the sale of dual use technologies; this is in addition to the entry into the 35 member, Missile Technology Control Regime, last July.  With a clean waiver provided by the Nuclear Suppliers group & in lieu of the opposition, by China, to India’s entry to the 48 member grouping, India should concentrate on gaining entry to the Australia Group – that regulates Chemical & Biological weapons – instead, in 2018.

2G verdict Disappoints: Vinod Rai’s CAG report, in 2010, on spectrum allocation & telecom policy whipped the UPA regime into a policy paralysis courtesy parliamentary disruption. While he indicated 3 models of potential revenue loss, the opposition latched on to the highest fig of 1.76 lakh crore loss only to corner the govt. The CBI filed a charge sheet for a fig of about 31000 crores only & failed to prove even that in the CBI Court leading to exoneration of DMK’s Kanimozhi and A Raja & other accused including Rcom executives free. This verdict could challenge the Modi govt. resolve in enforcing justice especially when the Panama papers, Paradise Papers, HSBC  & Liechtenstein lists too have seen no action.

Dynastic accession in the GOP: Rahul Gandhi took over as the President of the Congress Party on 16^th Dec elected unopposed; his mother Sonia held it for 19 years, earlier, inviting accusations of dynastic succession. However, with all regional parties except the JD(U) following the same path & the BJP having the progeny of Rajnath Singh, Shivraj Chauhan, Raman Singh, Vasundhara, Prem Dhumal, Munde & Pramod Mahajan as legislators no party now can escape the barb of dynastic succession. Just as the viewers have forced some of the children - lacking talent - of screen gods & goddesses into premature retirement, voters should, likewise, show the door to dynasts who lack capability.

Conclusion:

2017 was a fascinating year for India with its share of highs & lows. The green-shoots of opposition unity, as seen in Gujarat, are indicative of a potentially exciting electoral narrative in 2018 & beyond. India’s economic revival to over 7.5% growth, though, is at least 6 quarters away. That makes one look forward towards 2018 with trepidation.