Congress & BJP: Stratagems for 2019

The Modi govt. has completed three & a half years in power, without an effective opposition but the impending Gujarat assembly elections is turning out to be a cliff-hanger; an inflection point seems to have now been reached with the opposition tasting blood. Time is hence ripe to predict the broad strategies likely to be adopted by the BJP & the Congress in the run up to the 2019 general elections.

BJP Strategy: “Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan”

The BJP believes in the slogan: “Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan “given by its progenitor, the Jan Sangh. MS Golwalkar – the 2^nd head of its ideological fountain-head, the RSS - insisted on 5 unities – one language, one faith & one race with one culture in one nation “Akhand Bharat”.  It insists on “Hindi” as all pervasive national language & “Hindutva” as an ideological glue holding entire “Hindustan” under a nationalistic & patriotic spirit.

Congress Strategy: “Linguism, Secularism, Federalism”

The dispirited Congress seems to have got a boost vide an alternative narrative that emanated not by the central think tank but from the Karnataka CM – Siddaramiah whose strategy roughly translates into the alternative slogan: Regional Language, Secularism, Federalism.  The DMK rode to power, in TN, for the first time, in 1967 riding on the anti -Hindi agitation. As part of a national party that instituted the 3 language education policy, Sidaramiah, cannot prescribe the 2 language policy followed in neighbouring TN but instances of blackening of Hindi names across metro stations has been seized to create a new discourse of Kannada nationalism; there is now a demand too to have a Karnataka flag.  The opposition, DMK, in TN, in Mar ’17, joined chorus when it opposed the English markings on national highway milestones being replaced with Hindi inscriptions. Telangana, in Sept’17,  too made Telugu a compulsory subject from  standard 1 to 12, surprisingly, attracting praise from VP, Venkaiah Naidu, indicating that many leaders from the BJP too, hailing from non- Hindi states - are uncomfortable with Hindi imposition.

With the BJP pushing for Hindu consolidation against the significant other ‘Muslim”, the opposition has traditionally favoured a “secular” discourse inviting the epitaph of “pseudo – secularism” from the former.  Siddaramiah has now creatively found a new opening by endorsing the demand of Lingayats – the core support base of the BJP & at a 20% of the population, a dominant electoral constituency of Karnataka – that they be declared a separate religion, since the founder Basavanna had shunned Vedic rituals & agama shastras; incidentally, BJP strongman, Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat, had demanded a separate religion status some years back & hence cornered.

Hindu consolidation is also countered vide caste assertion. In Gujarat, the Rajput, Alpesh Thakur, Dalit, Jignesh Mewani & the Patidar, Hardik Patel have extended support to the Congress, fracturing the Hindu forces in their Gujarat lab.

While the BJP has been articulating the spirit of “co-operative federalism” the dominance of Narendra Modi over both the party & govt. & the use of article 356 in Uttarakhand & Arunachal has strengthened opinion that the country is regressing towards the Indira Gandhi era of greater centralization – the re- emergence of the Delhi Sultanate. Hence the demand for true Federalism by the opposition is a rallying clarion call.

Modi -Shah Counter

The Modi - Shah juggernaut though is not sitting idle. The death of a strong supremo like Jayalalitha without an anointed successor or a strong democratic party hierarchy – but with a 1.5 crore cadre - is a once in a lifetime opportunity which they are keen to exploit; IT raids on the Mannargudi clan is to finish the money bags of the party & force a merger at an opportune time, perhaps post 2019. However, TN politics is characterized by an oscillating polity with one of the Dravidian parties winning in alternate elections. It is thus feasible that the DMK led group would get about 35 of the 39 seats in 2019; the Modi-Karunanidhi meeting recently in Chennai should be seen in this regard. The BJP is thus running with the hare & hunting with the hounds.

The Challenges to the BJP

The BJP’s electoral compulsions are palpable. A marginalized Shiv Sena is blowing hot & cold & could join the NCP-Congress combine in fighting the BJP in the 2019 elections. The Akali-Dal is unhappy just like the Telugu Desam but would hitch their bandwagons to the BJP since the Congress is their prime opposition in their home states. The JD (U) too is smarting post their non-inclusion in the union council of ministers; having dumped the BJP in 2014 & re-entering into their embrace in 2017, the JD(U) is constrained of further leg room.  All of them would demand their pound of flesh at an opportune time.

Other problems abound. The BJP won 282 seats in 2019, 10 more than a simple majority aided majorly by winning 71 of the 80 seats in UP.  They maintained their dominance in the assembly elections too held in 2017 benefitting from a fractured polity. Stung & wise a SP-BSP-Congress combine is a distinct reality in 2019, an alliance that could win at least 60 seats, dipping the BJP tally by about 50 seats.  The road to Delhi passes via Lucknow & a dip in seats here could be fatal.  The impressive performance, in 2014, in Gujarat (26/26), Rajasthan (25/25), Haryana (7/10), Madhya Pradesh (27/29), Chhattisgarh (10/11), Maharashtra (23/48) are unlikely to be repeated in 2019. Thus the BJP’s no.  would drop by at least 100  in 2019; it could still emerge as the single largest party though.  Inducting TMCs Mukul Roy in Bengal, & hobnobbing with BJDs Jay Panda in Odisha & Narayan Rane in Maharashtra are hence efforts at either adding a saleable strategic face or muscle in a bid to increase the national catchment. 

The BJP is losing current allies – MDMK of TN in 2014, SSS of Maharashtra in 2017 - & having opened up new war fronts - BJD in Odisha - might not attract new ones; it would however better its performance in Odisha in 2019. To cross the magic fig. of 272 on their own & deny negotiating space to their miffed allies, the BJP could reignite the strategies that paid handsome dividends in the past. The storming of Parliament in 1966 by the RSS & its affiliates on the issue of banning “cow slaughter” helped the Jan Sangh- win 35 seats in 1967 elections from 14 in 1962; it was their largest haul since independence. Likewise, the Ram Mandir agitation – by the Kamandal forces – helped it get to 120 seats in 1991. Thus cow protection, Ram Temple, invocation of nationalism over Vande Mataram, National Anthem & Bharat Mata, & Love jihad could be the various vectors employed. A skirmish at the border could fuel hyper nationalism. While “Vikas” would be the overarching theme spoken by national leaders, the cadre would sharpen the other vectors at the ground level.

Conclusion

The run up towards 2019, unfortunately, looks bloody. Gauri Lankesh’s assassins are still untraced. A fractious polity divided on the basis of caste by so called “secularists” or into religions by so called “communalists” are fatal for the growth of the nation. Hope better sense prevails across both the camps. Jai Hind!!