Imran Khan Niazi: From the Cricket Pitch to Prime Minister of Pakistan

After scorching the 22 yard cricket pitches, during his international cricket career, spanning about 22 years, with his “all-rounder” exploits – winning the world cup in 1992 being his crowning glory - Imran Khan retired from cricket to start PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf) Party in, 1996, & after 22, rather, inglorious years, succeeded in becoming the PM of Pakistan. In the process, a Casanova, with a penchant for blondes & a liberal has transformed into a rosary carrying devout Muslim hobnobbing with the Taliban, earning the sobriquet “Taliban Khan”. Imran’s 2^nd wife of 10 months, Reham Khan, in her tell all book, whose excerpts were released on the eve of the elections, portrayed him as Janus faced - a narcotic addict, bisexual, misogynist playing sexual favours within his party, a depraved individual with many illegitimate children including 5 in India - that, perhaps, dented but did not damage his electoral prospects fully. Khan’s 3^rd wife & his spiritual guide, Bushra Riaz Watoo AKA “Pinky Pirni” – “Pinky” being her nick name & “Pirni” since she is apparently a Sufi mystic – whom Imran allegedly married on 1^st Jan 2018, kowtowing to some divine apparition revealed to her,  will now be the first lady of Pak.

Pak’s infamous former ISI Chief – Hamid Gul – is widely believed to have orchestrated Imran’s entry into politics & the latter became the “chosen one” of the Military in 2018, to become PM. The Military doctored the electoral pitch by getting the judiciary to unseat & disqualify Nawaz Sharief from the position of PM & later jailed him & his daughter, Maryam, on allegedly trumped up charges. Later they prodded many of PML –N (Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz) party-men, to shift allegiance to PTI, broke up MQM – a party of Indian immigrants to Pak post partition- in its stronghold, Karachi & controlled & censored the media, helping PTI secure about 118 seats in a 272 elected member assembly.  With neither the PML- N nor the PPP (Pakistan People’s Party) likely to extend support to the PTI, the 50 member “others” would become an important constituency & expect the Military to work on them to help the “chosen one”. The lack of a majority seems a strategic attempt – by the Military – to keep a mercurial, Imran in check to prevent a Nawaz – another of the Military’s creation of the 1980’s –redux.  As expected, the opposition alleged rigging but might not paralyze governance with street protests, like Imran did, post losing the 2013 elections, for the lack of critical military backing. Imran termed the recent polls as “the fairest in Pak history” even as he promised to provide assistance to the opposition to investigate instances of electoral fraud which in short is nothing but good optics to obfuscate criticism.

Imran’s public address vide a video link claiming victory even before the Election Commission verified & notified the complete results – largely focussed on his vision for Pak on 3 broad areas

(1)Governance Model: Re-create an Islamic republic of Pakistan founded on the Prophet’s teachings & implemented at Medina to take care of the downtrodden including the widows & the poor. This shall appeal to his core conservative constituency. Promise to safeguard the interest of ordinary citizens & enforcing accountability for all is an extension of campaign rhetoric which never goes out of fashion.

(2)Economic Policy: A neo liberal economic thrust - to extricate Pak from the economic mess – by improving ease of doing business to appeal to the Pak diaspora to invest & create jobs even as the country takes advantage of CPEC(China Pak Economic Corridor). He promised to safeguard tax revenue & decrease govt. expenses

(3)Foreign Policy:  Focus on strengthening relations with China, envisioning open borders with Afghanistan, reset of relations with the US from being one sided to one based on mutual benefit, improving on the time tested relations with Saudi Arabia to resolve their inner tensions & improvement of relations with India based on enhancing trade along with addressing the core issue of Kashmir & attendant human right violations in the vale.

Foreign Affairs is the preserve of the Army & when Nawaz tried an independent furrow he was cut down to size by the Pak Military; aware of an Army veto, Imran is likely to tread a tutored line on foreign policy. Therefore, India might not be amused at the Kashmir reference & hence a rapprochement between the two countries is unlikely especially since an anti-Pak rant could emerge as an important poll issue during the Indian Parliamentary elections poised 6-9 months away. Imran’s vision of “Open Borders” with Afghanistan – reminiscent to those in the European Union - is interesting; the Pashtuns – who constitute a majority in Southern Afghanistan & Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan - have a historical angst against the colonial legacy of the Durand line – agreed in 1896 - the line of division between the two countries.  Imran is a Pashtun in a country dominated by the Punjabis in all spheres including the army.

Imran would order conversion of the PM & Governor houses into hospitals or colleges to gain goodwill & settle down to the task of hard negotiations with the IMF for a bail-out package especially since Saudi Arabia or China are unlikely to throw a life-line. This might include a devaluation of the rupee, further opening up of the economy & other reforms that might hurt vested interests; enhancing tax revenues is never easy & even if he cuts non-military spends, he would create further enemies. Expect him to be busy staving off pressure from the United Nations Financial Action Task Force to shut the tap on terror financing; a catch 22 situation it is, for he is damned if he does & damned if he does not. Constrained as he is along with many of the other elected legislators of the PTI - due to the inexperience in governance - the Ministerial team that he assembles is of considerable interest to policy wonks. He can legitimately claim credit for his incorruptible image & ascending the apex in 2 diverse fields – Cricket & Politics – which is rare but would soon emerge chastened on realization that lording over the cricket establishment in Pak is not the same as presiding over the destiny of Pak, prone as he is to self-aggrandizement & lacking coalition & consensus building skills.  If his mercurial personna finally takes on the Military establishment he will end up like Nawaz Sharief.

Strategic Foreign Policy levers for the World Powers of the 21st Century: US, China & India

The globe has seen the emergence & eclipse of “World Powers” due to foreign policy imaginations or blunders respectively; Spain & Portugal were preeminent powers of the 15^th & 16^th centuries eclipsed by UK & France during the 17^th to 19^th centuries, only to be replaced by the USSR & the USA after the 2^nd World war. Post the breakup of the Soviet Union, in 1991, the world passed through a unipolar world order - the US being the sole superpower - but is now delicately poised to witness the emerge of China as a rival to the US with India playing the role of a  “swing power”.

Brief History

Spain & Portugal facing blockage to land routes to the East from the Venetians & the Turks, triumphed vide exploration of the seas, because of better ships, maps & navigation techniques to discover new lands & achieved great power status; The Treaty of Tordesillas, 1494, divided the world into two halves, with lands east of the line, 370 leagues west of the Cape Verde islands, off the coast of Africa, allocated to the Portuguese & the west  - largely continental Americas  minus Brazil – apportioned to Crown of castile (Spain) & was attested by a Papal bull. They lost their eminence due to cruel colonialism – lack of empathy for the locals, forced conversions due to missionary zeal, plunder of the local economies – & entering into unnecessary wars that sapped their strength.  Prince Phillip’s loss of the Spanish Armada, in 1588, is widely chronicled to have led to the end of Spanish dominance & beginning of Great Britain's rise. Later, in the 20^th century, the UK too lost the pride of place due to the World wars while the USSR broke up because the cold war arms race forced her to spend more than a proportionate share of its GDP. An aspiring world power like India should guard against the same mistakes. Other takeaways from history

Takeaway 1: A country can secure a permanent great power status not by fighting wars incessantly but by instilling the fear of deterrence.

Takeaway 2: All prospective world powers gained market access in foreign countries initially to expand their markets & enhanced their sources of raw materials to build economies of scale domestically that eventually helped in achieving a trade surplus that funds the rise.

Way Forward

In 2017, the US is the largest economy with a GDP of $19.4 trillion (2^nd in PPP - Purchasing Power Parity terms at $19.4 Trillion), followed by China at $12.2 trillion economy (1^st in PPP terms at $23 trillion) & India  6^th at $2.6 trillion ( 3^rd largest in PPP terms at $9.4 Trillion) It is sane to conclude, therefore, that India shall become the 3^rd largest economy in absolute terms before 2035 & shall hence play the role of a “swing” power perhaps riding on the principle of “strategic autonomy”.

Great powers, to achieve strategic objectives, have relied on “capacity”:  economic strength, military might & soft power. While higher GDP size allows leeway for greater military spends it is prudent to use “soft power” in the interim till the economic & military might achieve critical mass.

The rise of the US was due to the following farsighted foreign policy principles followed

Tenet 1: Dominate the International Financial ecosystem through the World Bank & the IMF: A US representative lords over the World Bank while ally EU's representative heads the IMF thereby retaining a stranglehold on the world’s financial architecture, helping to prise open world markets

Tenet 2: Checkmate Communist spread by creating the Military alliances NATO & SEATO: NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) was created, in 1949 & SEATO (South East Asia Treaty Organization), in 1954, to counter communist rise in Europe & South East Asia respectively. Ultimately, the cold war arms race was deliberately targeted to ensure the breakup of the Soviet Union in a bid to finish off an alternative to Western Capitalism. 

Tenet 3: Dominate World Trade with the creation of GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs & Trade) earlier & WTO (World Trade Organization) later:

Tenet 4: Soft Power: Education, Music & Movies: Attract foreign students to study in US universities & expect some of them to return to their homelands & rise in the bureaucracy or political hierarchy & help US vide diplomatic leverage in later years. Culturally influence foreign citizens with western music & hollywood even while American companies like Coke. McDonalds etc. fan consumerism.

Tenet 5: Selective push to democracy & human rights: Even while hobnobbing with the dictators of Middle East for oil security & leaders of Latin America & South East Asia as committed vassals, the US conveniently pushed for democracy & human rights as & when prudent to achieve geopolitical objectives.

In short the US pushed ideology – democracy & capitalism even as she tried to crush communism - & has tried to dominate world trade & financial architecture.

Competition to the US

The Soviet Union & Japan emerged as worthy challengers to the US in the post WW2 world order but even at the peak of their economic prosperity their economies never crossed 60% of the US GDP; the pacifist constitution, imposed on Japan, post WW2, ensured that she never emerged as a military power. While the Nixon - Kissinger plan of opening up to China in 1972 was meant to checkmate the USSR, China, has emerged as a competitor to the US & has already crossed the 60% of US GDP mark, in absolute terms & 118% of GDP in PPP terms; she is poised to surpass the US GDP in absolute terms by 2031 posing a credible challenge to the numero -uno.

Even while the dystopian Trump administration is busy corroding their country’s past foreign policy tenets, China is appropriating the space vacated by the sole superpower to gain acceptability. While Trump withdraws from the Paris climate change commitments, threatens to cut off support to the UN  & subvert the WTO (Tenet 4) by launching unilateral trade sanctions, China, surprisingly, calls for a rules based world order even as she refuses to accept the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the law of the sea) order on her territorial claims in the South China Sea. China is also building an alternative financial & political structure with the following objectives.

(A)Rival the financial architecture of the West by launching the BRICS Bank (New Development bank) & AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank)

(B)Create a rival to the Marshall Plan - that funded post WW2 reconstruction in Europe & Japan - vide the BRI (Belt & Road initiative) to fund infra expansion in foreign countries thereby gain ing diplomatic leverage.

(C)Build an alternative ideology – Communism with Chinese Characteristics - to Western Capitalism

(D)Push for Chinese Soft power: Mandarin language vide Confucius institutes

China’s Failures

Prudence demands that a successful world power avoid creating a troubled neighbourhood. While the Spain-Portugal rivalry led to the desecration of both the powers; later the UK-France tussle led to the same consequences. The US, on the contrary, kept neighbours comfortable – initially with the "Monroe doctrine", in 1823, to oppose European colonialism in the Americas, & later vide the "Roosevelt Corollary" in 1904, that announced US right to intervene in the internal affairs of any Latin American Country - in case of flagrant & chronic wrongdoing - thereby carving its sphere of influence, & thereafter strengthened its influence further with trade deals, in 1994, of the NAFTA (North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement) kind - with Mexico & Canada. Trump is currently unravelling the time tested initiatives.  China – by claiming the entire South China Sea disingenuously– vide the nine dashed line- & border disputes with countries like India, Vietnam etc.  is annoying her neighbours who, eventually, could join hands impeding the ‘Middle Kingdom’s” rise. China is keen that the South China Sea & the Indian Ocean are recognized as her sphere of influence.

India’s Options:

While India aspires to be a "World Power", her "Regional Power Status" is being challenged by China in her assumed traditional sphere of influence of the Indian Ocean Region. Checking China's intrusion, for the next 20 years, can only be achieved vide the Quad - US, India, Australia &Japan - with flexibility allowed to countries in South East Asia like Vietnam to join hands with the grouping. Meanwhile, India should attempt to become $10 trillion economy before 2035 & a steadily growing GDP –perhaps over 8% annually -  would automatically help her build her military might; she should exponentially expand her soft power, in the interim, incapable as she currently is in terms of matching Chinese FDI/Infra investments in various countries.

Proposed Indian Foreign Policy tenets

(a)Propagate soft power:

·         Yoga, Ayurveda, Music – Carnatic & Hindustani - & Movies – Bollywood & Regional Cinema

·         Replicate the US example in of attracting foreign students to Indian Universities

·   Strengthen National Disaster Relief Organization to provide services across Indian Ocean countries

(b)Attract Capital to spur growth rate & become 2^nd largest economy by 2050:

(c )Indigenization of military equipment to build a military industrial complex with exports

(d )Alternate narrative to Chinese One Language, One Culture with empathy on diversity: While China is trying to push the narrative of uniformity - Han Chinese with one language – Mandarin – India should encourage the growth & development of an alternative model of racial unity amongst her 3 races – Aryans, Dravidians & Mongoloids – 7 religions – Hindus, Buddhists, Jains, Sikhs, Christians, Muslims & Jews across languages – 22 official & other sub dialects. Most of the African countries have the same diversity of tribes as in India & would be keen to replicate the Indian model if found viable.

(e)Strengthen WTO & sneak in labour mobility:  The median age for India is 28 while that of China is 38 & the US 42; thus India with a youthful population should attempt to push for labour mobility to ensure that Indian manpower can secure jobs abroad. Training people on foreign languages – Japanese, German, French,  Spanish, Arabic & Persian – should, therefore, be encouraged.

Conclusion

Transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order is real & if India positions herself as “what China is not” she can emerge as a leader.

No Confidence Motion: The beginning of the 2019 Parliamentary Election Campaign

The BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), surprisingly, scuttled the No Confidence Motion, initiated by the TDP (Telugu Desam Party), during the last legislative session, despite enjoying a majority but allowed it this session for a debate & won it, resoundingly 325: 126. Only the BJD(Biju Janata Dal) walked off – in a bid to keep the party equidistant from both the Congress & the BJP, its principal rivals in the state of Odisha & did not support the TDP’s motion since Odisha has disputes with neighbouring Andhra. The Shiv Sena voted against the govt. – perhaps, as a negotiating tactic to secure a good share of Parliamentary & assembly seats; the AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) voting for the govt. makes de facto their entry into the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) fold. The battle lines are clearly taking concrete shape.

The TDP left the NDA ostensibly on the issue of denial of Special Category status, despite agreeing to financial compensation earlier, since it was slighted by the BJP looking to hobnob with YSRCP (Yuvajana Shramika Rythu Congress Party) & aiming to become a predominant Kapu led party – against a Reddy led YSRCP & a Kamma led TDP - & hence had kicked up a Kamma, Venkiah Naidu as the VP & make a Kapu, Kanna Lakshiminarayana as the Party President in AP.  The TDP would have been happy had the BJP played second fiddle in the state & helped the state in quicker implementation of the state bifurcation promises.

Rahul Gandhi (RaGa) – was keen to assert his relevance – as a viable opposition face to take on Modi & his speech – attacking the PM & not the BJP - was effective as was his self- depreciating use of the word ”Pappu”, “Jumla strike” – to account for unfulfilled bombastic promises  & slogan of “Daro Mat” to instill courage in the opposition ranks living in constant fear of the might of the state in the form of” caged parrots” being unleashed by the PM. Calling himself a “Shiv Bhakt” he attempted to fortify his Hindu roots & by not mentioning “Muslims” kept his speech safe from being tarred with the “minority appeasement” tag; earlier he met Muslim intellectuals & not the Maulvis to keep the party in the company of “Soft Hindutva & Liberal Muslims”.  The party though appears still unclear in terms of the ideological line to adopt. Hugging the PM, though, was a masterstroke to evoke eyeballs – a necessity in age of social media  – but his wink was juvenile; maturity demands that he should learn from the BJP leaders – who dislike Modi – but kept their emotions under check even during the debate.

Modi- the master orator was off colour during the debate; he seeks attentive audiences that allow him play up on drama & rhetoric; when faced with disruption he has a habit of running through with his speech denying  him the opportunity to land an effective jab at his opponents sometimes even with liberal doss of caustic humour. He did mention the achievements of his governments in great detail though but stretched himself on explaining his Achilles heel - the job scenario. Expect more research reports or articles glorifying the job scenario to emerge as we enter into the final stages of the electoral arena.

By turning the tables on RaGa  on the issue of “not looking into the eyes” – by pointing out the fate meted out to the likes of Sardar Vallabhai Patel, Subhash Bose, Charan Singh, Deve Gowda, IK Gujral, Sharad Pawar & Pranab Mukherjee – by the first family, vintage Modi, punched where it hurts & also tried to open up channels of communication with some opposition parties for alliances if not to reduce the index of opposition unity.

All in all the no confidence motion was merely a curtain raiser to the impending assembly elections in Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh & Mizoram – expected by the year end either in conjunction or sequenced by the Parliamentary elections. The BJP won the confidence vote but the opposition won their confidence; with mojo back the contest turns interesting.

Kim Trumps Meet

North Korean Chairman, “Little Rocket Man”, Kim Jong Un met “Bigger Button”, Donald Trump, at the Capella resort, Singapore on 12^th June’18 &  signed an agreement - on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. The joint statement, low on specifics, without milestones prompted critics to conclude that Kim won round 1; Trump suspended US- South Korean war games to instil trust while Kim conceded nothing even while Trump proclaimed that Kim has promised to destroy a missile engine testing site though not listed as part of the agreement.  Trump admirers, hyperbolically though, liken the meet, to the Mao-Nixon meet, of 1972, that transformed global geopolitics.  US Vice President, Mike Pence & NSA, Bolton earlier spoke on the “Libyan model” to settle the North Korean issue, clearly, indicating that the US was not keen on talks but was forced into it by its ally South Korea; President Moon Jae In of South Korea, desirous of peace, opened up channels of communication with Kim who responded by agreeing to field a joint Korean team - which marched under a “unification flag” depicting the peninsula, during the Pyeongchang winter Olympics - in Feb’18, & the opening ceremony was graced by Kim’s sister Kim Sol-Song accelerating goodwill.

Brief History of North Korea

North Korea has a military of 1.2 million – comparable to India - & is a nuclear & missile power; at $40 billion, her GDP is lower than the Indian annual military spends & that explains the poverty of its citizens. The “hermit kingdom” thus leads a recluse life with its citizenry denied access to the world in a bid to protect the dynastic regime.

Japan colonized Korea in 1910 & post the loss, in WWII the peninsula was divided, across the 38^th parallel, amongst the victors -  North Korea supported by the Soviet Union & South Korea supported by the US;  Kim’s grandfather – Kim II Sung – the dictator for North Korea, prompted by the USSR invaded the South on June 25^th 1950, to be resisted by the South with US support; the North forces were driven back by the US forces under General MacArthur & as they approached the Yalu river – the dividing line between North Korea & China – Mao’s China entered the war theatre & the joint forces repulsed the Southern forces  to the 38^th parallel when an armistice – not a peace treaty - was pronounced on July 23^rd 1953 creating a 2 mile wise “demilitarized zone” that still exists; thus the two Korea’s are technically at war even today which the Moon-Kim meet has brought to an end on April 27^th 2018 vide the “Panmunjom declaration”;  reconciliation is a first step, perhaps, leading into an association & eventual reunification.

The Key players in the conflict have different strategic goals to achieve & it will be interesting to see how the same pans out

South Korea: President Moon knows that in the event of a war, the South could be the first casualty – due to its proximity to the North – although North Korea can inflict damage much beyond by  launching nuclear tipped missiles that can reach Guam, Atlanta & California in the US or Japanese territories. The US has a military base in South Korea hosting about 28000 US soldiers & installed THAAD missile defence system, in Sept ’17, which led to local protests. The missile defence system is placed on a company - Lotte group - land & China sensing threat from the same has ordered closure of all 74 Lotte stores in China & prompted its citizens to shun South Korean products – impacting trade - banned Chinese tour groups from visiting South Korea - effecting tourism income - & cancelled appearances of South Korean pop & movie stars; this is a signal to all the countries in the region – including Japan – not to get the THAAD system installed in their territories & the economic pain that could be inflicted if her warnings go unheeded.

Moon – the pragmatist – wants peace & is nudging a reluctant US towards his goal & proposed a Noble Peace Prize to imperious Donald Trump as a bait to get his endorsement of the peace initiative; Trump, facing flak for his impetuosity & a downward spiral in approval ratings at home & the Mueller probe gaining stream and desperate for a policy win appears amenable to the same; he could squeeze the issue dry during the mid -term elections poised for Nov. this year.

China: The People Republic of China had proposed a “freeze” for a “freeze” – freeing of North Korean Missile & Nuclear tests in lieu of the freeze of the South Korean – US joint military exercises. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, North Korea lost its ideological mentor & was propped up by China to checkmate US & its allies – Japan & South Korea – by surreptitiously offering them missile technology just as they supported Pak – by offering them nuclear technology – to constrain India. Benazir Bhutto, in 1993, then Prime Minister of Pakistan, exchanged nuclear designs for missile blueprints with North Korea completing the proliferation picture.  

Surprisingly, Kim did not demand that the US vacate the South Korean military bases despite Chinese prodding in a bid to expand her geopolitical ambitions post the US withdrawal. Clearly, Kim does not want to depend on one benefactor – China- alone & wants to open up to the West – especially the US to enhance his options even while President Xi of China has forced Kim to meet him twice before the Kim- Trump meet & by making arrangements for Kim to fly to Singapore in an “Air China” flight reiterated that China cannot be side-lined. China is wary of the warming US- North Korean ties & the possibility of the US using North Korea as a strategic balancer in the region to hedge against the rise of China; she is however, chary of the possibility of the North Korean citizens crossing the borders into China in the event of a Korean conflict. In short China desires peace in the Korean peninsula with US withdrawal & North Korea continuing to remain a vassal state.

US: The sole superpower signed agreements in 1994 during Clinton’s presidency & in 2005 under POTUS George Bush only to see them dissipate because of non-compliance.  In 1994, when North Korea threatened to exit the NPT, the Clinton administration’s “agreed framework” promised aid in lieu of nuclear freeze only to see it unravel by 2002 & North Korea moved out of the NPT in 2003 to restart its nuclear facilities thereby inviting sanctions again. 6 party talks involving the US, China, Russia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea followed & a deal was struck in 2005 only to break down by 2009 with disputes on verification.

The US is now insistent on a “Complete, Verifiable, and Irreversible Denuclearization” (CVID) & having annulled the Iran deal struck by President Obama has denied North Korea a similar deal & might not offer them a deal offered to India, in 2006, either.

North Korea: In an opaque regime, Kim is viewed as paranoid character who got his mentor, uncle Jang Song Thaek, executed, in 2013 & his half-brother Kim Jong Nam, killed, in Malaysia, in 2017,in a nerve agent attack as punishment for plotting with China to topple his regime; that explains his distrust of China. He carried his own lavatory to Singapore since he did not want to leave even his poop in foreign shores & the presence of his sister switching Trump’s pens to his own while signing the agreement buttresses the assessment. That he replaced 3 of his senior generals seen as hardline with youngers moderate ones indicates that he aspires to genuinely open up to the west to expand his options beyond China & wind down sanctions. His nuclear test site at Punggye Ri was destroyed in May’18 while testing & he blew up the entire site in front of world reporters to accomplish a fait accompli in a bid to buttress his credentials.

It is possible that post the US invasion of Iraq, in 2003, that led to Saddam Hussein ouster on the illusory pretext of the presence of WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) & NATO forces killing Muammar Gaddafi, of Libya, in 2011,post his agreement to freeze the nuclear ambitions, the North Korean regime is wary & will stop at nothing to protect the regime. It will be interesting to see how the US reconciles to Kim’s likely demand to retain at least some nuclear weapons with delivery systems for regime preservation; mere "security guarantees" might not suffice. 

Conclusion:

Kim would want to maintain some nuclear arsenal with delivery systems as insurance for his regime & Trumps public pronouncements on “phased denuclearization” at variance with Pompeo’s CVID could help in taking the talks forward. Kim has initiated reforms at home in agriculture & industry & perhaps would be keen to follow the fellow Communist countries – China & Vietnam - model of reforms but with a single party dominance & western nations could help with investments going forward. The US shall not vacate the military bases in South Korea even as she gets a foothold into the North due to the mistrust between North Korea & China on the coup issue.

As Trump conceded that the process of achieving the objective would take close to a decade. Reality TV relies on attracting eyeballs & the Trump-Kim surreal show did just that bringing two tempestuous unpredictable characters to shake hands even while their deputies wring their hands to arrive at a consensus that satisfies conflicting aims of several nations.

Modi Sarkar@4 Years

Chastened by the Karnataka verdict but not subdued, Prime Minister, Narendra Modi led the BJP’s 4^th anniversary celebration at Odisha – a state they have already made deep in-roads & armed with promising plans to make substantial gains in the 2019 Parliamentary elections in a bid to compensate for losses elsewhere.  Modi – not only the chief mascot of the party but also its de-facto propaganda in chief - yet again listed the achievements of his govt. in superlative terms only to be snubbed by his rival Rahul Gandhi who awarded him an “F” grade in governance – “agriculture, foreign policy, fuel prices & job creation” & an “A+” in “slogan creation & self- promotion”. Obviously, the actual achievements of the govt. lie in between the two extreme assessments.

Achievements Modi can be Proud off

Swatch Bharat: Modi launched the Swatch Bharat mission immediately on ascending to power, perhaps, influenced by Mahatma Gandhi’s campaign during the freedom struggle. Building of 7.25 crore toilets in villages & schools supported by TVC‘s helmed by influencers – Anushka Sharma & Amitabh Bachchan – to drive behavioural changes, to encourage usage of toilets, in the masses - has the potential to enhance health parameters & enrolment of more girl-children into schools, many of who discontinue education, post puberty, for want of privacy provided by toilets.

Ujala & Ujwala Scheme: Modi sarkar has driven savings in electricity costs by encouraging mass distribution of 90 crore LED bulbs (30 crore by govt. & 60 crore by pvt. sector) under the “Ujala” scheme; likewise, by setting a target of 175 GW of renewable energy by 2022, they have driven solar costs down to Rs 2.46/- per unit; at some point these cost savings should get transferred to the hoi polloi vide a cut in electricity tariffs which is still due.  Similarly, the “Give It Up” campaign - that encouraged people to give up the benefits of subsidized gas cylinders - was followed by delivering 3.8 crore free LPG connections to BPL(Below Poverty Line) families  in rural, thereby delivering twin benefits: Eliminating rich recipients & hence saving on subsidy; & encouraging the poor to shift to a cleaner fuel, thereby, enhancing the health of the womenfolk  who otherwise spent most of the time near smoke emitting chulas inviting heart, lung & eye ailments. These moves enhance environmental protection too & hence highly applauded. The low refill rate of cylinders, though, appears a concern since BPL families perhaps, still find it unaffordable. The govt., meanwhile, has announced plans to increase the BPL LPG connections target from 5 crores to 8 crores.

Achievements Modi can be Partially Proud off /should share credit with his predecessors

Universal Insurance: Attempts to make India an insured society by a contributory funding scheme of Rs 12/- paid by the insuree for an accident insurance of 2 lakhs has benefitted 13.25 crore people & Rs 330/- for a life insurance of 2 lakhs has aided 5.22 crore families; the Atal Pension Yojana for the sexagenarians has benefitted over 1 crore unorganized sector workers & hence welcome.

However, launching “Ayushman Bharat” aka “Modicare” in its last year, that too with a budget of about 2000 crores only, for providing a 5 lakh health cover for 10 crore families (50 cr population) is too little too late. Some of the states like AP, Telangana & Tamil Nadu are already running health schemes & the cost of such schemes is higher than the centre’s budget proposal, leading many to question if this is another “Chunavi Jumla”.

It is pertinent to note that the agriculture insurance scheme has a payout of about Rs 20,000 crores annually (Rs 20,478 cr in 2016-17) to the insurance companies even while payment to farmers is about Rs 5,000 crores (5,650 crores in 2016-17) leading to supernormal profits for the intermediaries.  Hopefully, Modicare delivers a better model.

Foreign Policy: India joined the MTCR (Missile technology Control regime), in 2016 , Wassenaar Arrangement, dealing with conventional arms & dual use goods & technologies, in 2017, & Australia Group, dealing with Chemical & Biological weapons, in 2018  even while NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) proved elusive largely because of China's intransigence in seeking Indian parity with its iron brother- Pakistan.  Likewise, Indian soft power of Yoga has been expanded worldwide when the UN, in 2016, declared 21^st June as the World Yoga day. Similarly, hard power has been expanded vide LEMOA which secures Indian Military access to US bases in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean & Gaum in the Pacific; likewise agreements with France give access to her military bases in Djibouti & Reunion Islands near Madagascar; similar agreements have been inked with Singapore & potentially Indonesia for greater access east of Andamans. Furthermore, India will build its own base at Seychelles & Mauritius amidst pending plans for one more at Oman to access the Persian Gulf - all wise attempts to enhance India’s maritime reach & naval power.

However, India’s “Neighbourhood First” diplomacy is crumbling. Chinese stooge, KP Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal, has secured a landslide majority – fanning nationalism & anti-India sentiment courtesy the Indian blockade of Nepal, in 2015, to force a constitutional change for incorporating the aspirations of the Madhesis. Maldives continues to cock a snook at India & the Sri Lankan govt. is not as friendly as it once was when it came to power, in 2014. Bhutan has refused to be part of the BBIN (Bangladesh- Bhutan-India-Nepal) transport corridor ostensibly to prevent greater vehicular movement in the kingdom that could imperial her ecology. Support to Myanmar on the Rohingya issue & summersault soon thereafter to assuage the sentiments of Bangladesh has ruffled feathers in both the nations leaving India poorer.

Economy: The macros under this govt. look impressive & Modi never loses an opportunity to highlight that India moved away from the despicable tag of the “Fragile Five” economies, of 2013, to become the fastest growing large economy, in the world, & the investor darling during his regime, leading to the highest FDI of $60 billion against $36 billion per annum during the UPA regime. Surprisingly, a jobless growth scenario despite large FDI leads one to wonder if existing capacities are being bought by foreign players without creation of new ones.

The government’s lists the passage of the GST bill as a great achievement without acknowledging its own opposition to the bill, when on the other side on the aisle, as the reason for the delay; the congress should get the credit for initiating the bill & the BJP for passing it.

The government’s renegotiation of the Mauritius & the Singapore tax treaties is laudable for it has foreclosed loopholes even while the previous UPA govt. had dragged its feet.  To handle the “twin balance sheet” problem – companies with stressed balance sheets unable to repay debt thereby impacting the balance sheets of the creditor banks - & the consequent rise in NPA’s - the government passed the IBC (Insolvency & Bankruptcy code) which is truly transformational; the only regret is that insolvency professionals if appointed in the government's 2^nd year of its term would have cleaned the banking system by now.

BJP spokespersons, unfortunately, have a knack of being economical with facts. Indian GDP growth rate, during 2013-14, is 4.7% as per old series & 6.6% as per the new series & is likely to touch 6.6% again in 2017-18 post a peak of 8% achieved midway in 2015-16. Party spokespersons touting growth increase from 4.7% of 2013-14 to 7.2% in Q3 2017-18 is akin to comparing apples & oranges - an intellectually dishonest strategy for propaganda gains. Growth thus has improved but not as massively as claimed & demonetization has effected growth negatively.

Indeed, fiscal deficit of the centre has reduced by 1% from 4.5% in 2014 to 3.5% in 2016-17; states add an additional deficit of 3% leading to a combined national deficit of around 7.5% in 2013-14. Courtesy the “Uday” scheme on power sector reform – that entails state takeover of debt from the state power companies books - state fiscal deficit has upped to about 4%; thus the combined fiscal deficit of the centre & the states continues to hover around 7.5% as in 2014. 1% of GDP is about 1.7 lakh crores; pertinent to note that Centre made 1.35 lakh crores as excise in oil in 2013-14 which increased to 3.22 lakh crores in 2016-17 – an increase of 1.87 lakh crores. Thus the entire drop of 1% in fiscal deficit is funded not by cutting flab or increasing efficiency but merely by denying the common man the benefit of an unexpected drop in international oil prices which is akin to lazy governance. Oil prices are rising now & if domestic oil prices are increased, it would spur inflation & consumer angst while keeping prices stable would entail increase in fiscal deficit unless other tax avenues are suitably explored; clearly, the reduction in fiscal deficit was a result of an unexpected windfall due to a non-recurrable favourable international event & the Modi govt. had nothing to do with it & should not claim credit.

The govt. did keep inflation rate under 5% during its tenure unlike the UPA whose inflation record trended at around 9%; this was achieved by the favourable dip in international commodity prices – on which the Modi govt. had no hold - & by an anaemic increase in MSP (Minimum Support Prices) to farmers; if they do implement the Cost+50% pricing for farmers as promised in the last budget, inflation shall shoot up.

Electrification of Villages: India has 6.49 lakh villages & Modi claimed, in 2014, that it is the inefficiency of the Congress govt. that 18500 villages continue to remain in the dark. Flip the argument & you find that in 70 years about 6.3 lakh villages were electrified at an average of 9000 villages per annum & if the Modi govt. had run at the same pace the remaining villages would have been electrified in about 2years while it actually took about 4 years. Surely, these villages are in remote locations & the delay can be forgiven but running down opponents for the sole sake of propaganda cannot be condoned.

Achievements Modi should be Concerned about

Vigilantism: The hacking of Akhlaq in UP, Pehlu Khan in Haryana & the Hindu Yuva Vahini imposing morality codes in UP, creates a unease & societal schisms which could fuel violence & give space to vested organizations under the guise of “Gau Rakshaks” to become rent seekers. The govt. has till date treated these groups with kids' gloves which could be exploited by organizations like ISIS, Al-Qaeda & inimical foreign powers.

Key Institutions under Attack: Positions like the Lok Pal remain unfilled even after 4 years of the regime – a repeat of what happened in Gujarat when Modi was CM. Likewise, the govt. sought applications for 2 CIC (Chief Information Commissioners) positions in Sept’16 & has not filled the positions even as 2 more CICs have since retired & 3 more of a total of 11 are set to retire in 2018; clearly, these are attempts to weaken the RTI (Right to Information) act which has otherwise helped in enhanced transparency.

The Judge Loya case alludes to the possibility of the Judiciary under duress as buttressed by the 4 senior most judges of the Supreme Court who revolted against the Chief Justice on the issue of "fixing of the roster" - an euphemism for constituting benches favourable to the govt. - & called for an unprecedented press meet. Likewise, the trolling of journalists like Ravish Kumar & sharing of the morphed nude images of Rana Ayub is indicative of a fascist tendency of emasculating press freedom.

Even the decorum of Parliamentary proceedings has been severely compromised. Recently, in Mar’18, the vote of no confidence on the govt. was not debated ostensibly on the ground that the AIADMK & TDP members were protesting in the well of the house; 27 no confidence motions have been raised since independence & none suffered the ignominy of a non-debate. The reduction in the no of days the legislature is in session is another recent malady that denies people's representative the chance to raise an issue of public interest on the floor of the house. These are ominous portends for parliamentary democracy pleading for redressal.

Defence: India saw 4 defence Ministers in 4 years – Jaitley, Parrikar, Jaitley again & finally Nirmala which needless to say effected policy direction. Despite attempts to shift towards a G2G (Govt. to Govt.) contracts to outflank corruption allegations & accelerate procurement, the govt. has failed in its resolve to accelerate the modernization of the forces. Meanwhile, the Rafale deal is cast in a corruption cloud & debate on the same in parliament is stalled; while the UPA negotiated the aircraft at a per unit cost of Rs 526 crores with Transfer of Technology (TOT), the NDA govt. has closed the deal at Rs 1670 crore apiece – without TOT. The BJP claims advanced avionics as reason for the increased fare which is not backed by facts; in-fact the govt. has paid much higher than Rafale’s other clients -Egypt & Qatar.  Another intriguing question: Why are most defence contracts going to one Indian Industrial group whose financial position is precarious?

Surprisingly, Defence spend has dipped to 1.58% of GDP in 2017-18, the lowest since 1962 even as the Army Chief boasts that India is ready for a “two & a  half front” war which is a fallacy since his deputy, the Vice Chief told a Parliamentary Panel that only 8% of capital equipment is state of art & 68% vintage. Are we being fed rhetoric alone?

While “surgical strikes” on Pak, in 2016, as a response to the attack on an army camp at Uri, is touted as a sign of resolute policy, that it has not enforced deterrence  indicates otherwise; Pak continues to stoke violence in the vale.  Rhetoric can manage passions on the Indian mainland but continued adversarial acts by the enemy is reflective of lack of Indian “capacity” to inflict disproportionate pain which needs to be remedied.

Jobs - Pakoda economics: The Modi govt. rode to power on the promise of creating 2 crore jobs yearly & the assurance came a whimper with 8 core industries data available showing about 4.16 lakh new jobs in 2016-17. Modi famously, during a TV interview, cited pakoda sellers as new jobs created only to be ridiculed. Instead of accepting job losses – 14000 in L&T, 4500 in HDFC, 90000 in Telecom, 56000 in IT etc. apart from the jobless growth scenario, the govt. has meandered from showcasing “Mudra” to “Start-up India” to now claim the EPFO data growth by 31 lakhs in 6 months – Sept 17 to Feb 18 – as reflective of new jobs created. This is unlikely to pass muster since formalization of informal jobs post demonetization has forced many firms to register with the EPFO; former Finance Minister, Yashwant Sinha, avers that a firm with 19 employees would be in the informal sector & addition of 1 more employee pushes the company into the formal sector & all the 20 employees into formal sector employment records even while the actual addition is only 1 employee.

The PM claims that Rs 6 lakh crores was issued to 12 crore people under the “Mudra” scheme for self- employment to be countered by the Congress which claims that for 91% of the beneficiaries the average ticket size of loan was a mere Rs 23000/- - a mere tokenism that has failed to create jobs. 

 The “Start-up India” scheme was launched with a corpus of Rs 10,000 crores but only 90.6 crores has been disbursed till date indicating its failure; “Skill India” mission was discontinued after training 41.3 lakh people since the placement rate is at an abysmal 15% (6.15lakhs); the Minister for Skill Development & Entrepreneurship, Rajiv Prasad Rudy, would not have lost his job, in 2017, if his performance was seen as exemplary by the leadership.

Clearly, the govt. record on job creation is pathetic but is hell bent on inflating its achievements.

Economic Fugitives: UPA 2 was thrown out of power for what was seen as a monumental corrupt edifice & the Modi govt. was expected to chart a new course.  However, the fleeing of economic offenders like Vijay Mallya, Nirav Modi etc. sends across a dubious signal that the new govt. is no different & no action taken on the Panama papers, Paradise papers, Liechtenstein & HSBC account holders strengthens the assessment.

Conclusion:

Modi, definitely has the potential to be a transformational leader although his actions indicate incrementalism in a bid to sustain power. He should legitimately take credit for schemes like – Swatch Bharat, Ujwala, Ujala & the insurance scheme - but must learn to share credit with his predecessors for the JAM (Jan Dhan-Aadhar-Mobile) & the GST; after all Aadhar was launched in 2009 by the UPA & the telecom revolution was initiated, in 1995, by the Congress govt. to which the Vajpayee govt. added momentum vide the CPP (Calling Party Pays Regime) in 2003. JAM trilogy led to savings vide the DBT( Direct benefits transfer scheme) which incidentally was initiated by UPA II.  On issues like vigilantism & the troll army, the BJP should rethink just as they should on stratospheric propaganda to prevent the the recurrence of the consequence of the “Shining India” campaign of 2004.

Is “One Nation One Poll” In India Desirable?

The BJP govt. is going to complete 4 years in power, in May 2018, & there is a wager on whether joint elections to the National Parliament & State Assembly elections is round the corner, especially, when Prime Minister, Modi, has strongly argued for the cause in various forums & the Election Commission has announced its logistical readiness for conducting simultaneous elections by, Sept 2018, contingent though on the govt. making legal amendments to the law. However, critics scoff at such a move because of its “impracticality” – since it needs a consensus to be evolved followed by a Constitutional amendments to article 83, 85, 172 & 174 supported by a 2/3^rd majority - as much as its “undesirability” - since such action helps, disproportionately, a party with a national footprint vis a vis a regional party & hence detrimental to Federalism. Will the argument of cost reduction, governance dislocation & loss of time of party workers convince the Supreme Court that amendments so passed do not violate the “basic structure” of the constitution – a mandatory requirement post the Kesavananda Bharti Judgment of 1973?

In Support of the Move

Narendra Modi has faced criticism for being constantly on an “election mode”; perhaps, to counter the charge & emerge as a statesman, he made a persuasive argument that India had simultaneous elections till 1967 & citizenry have displayed maturity in electing different parties, if need be, at the Centre & the States then & can be expected to display the same maturity in future too.  He also argued for a single electoral roll from Panchayat to Parliament to reduce the work load on the teachers involved, ceaselessly, on electoral roll up gradation.  He proposed local body elections - both Urban & Rural - within a month of the simultaneous elections to the Centre & States to wind up the election season & settle into the serious job of governance.

The costs of Parliament elections in 2009 was 1000 -1100 crores (1483 crores as per EC), in 2009, & has increased to 4000 crores (3426 crores as per EC), in 2014, he averred & sought out joint elections as a solution to reduce costs & hence black money; reduce federal friction due to “war of words”- vitriol & rhetoric - between the political executive doubling up as a party representative & their opposition; & to prevent announcement of populist promises that are economically unfeasible. Simultaneous elections, incidentally, is budgeted to cost Rs 4500 crores – leading to substantial savings.

He also referred to the redeployment of the security forces during elections effecting the strategic security objectives of the country & deployment of senior officials of a neutral state in the electoral state disrupting governance in their parent state. He also highlighted India having about 10 lakh polling booths & the govt. deploying about 11 personnel per booth – largely govt. employees & teachers - dislocating human resources from their original functions & hence delivery.

Others have opined that governance comes to a standstill when the moral code of conduct comes into effect - from the time the poll bugle is sounded till the elections are completed. If elections are announced in UP, national governments are expected to refrain from launching schemes in the rest of the country too for ubiquitous media allows message transmission across porous regions; needless to add that some governments have taken advantage of this loophole to serve themselves with an electoral advantage & hence the need for joint elections to serve a level playing field. Former CEC SY Quraishi has suggested that if the Home Ministry could provide more paramilitary forces, the election season could be crashed to a month from the current 2 – 2.5 months cycle. Likewise, during the period the moral code of conduct is in vogue only launch of new schemes is disallowed & existing schemes can be pursued, nullifying the adulterated argument that governance comes to a standstill.

Simultaneous elections could help deepen democratic processes; migrant workers cannot make multiple visits back home to vote for the local bodies, state & national elections but if all of them are held together, they could do with oe visit  to participate in the festival of electoral democracy, perhaps, leading to a voting % increase.

The strongest argument in favour of the motion is that the law commission of 1999, in fact, suggested simultaneous elections & a parliamentary standing committee having studied the recommendation submitted its report, in 2015, to which the Election Commission too has added its viewpoint.

Against the Move

A staggered election – across the state & centre  - even if its costs about 10000 crores over a 5 year period (Rs 2000 crores per annum) is not as large as it is made out to be for a country with a national annual budget of about 25 lakh crores; the cost argument thus might not pass muster.

This move could propel the dominance of one party at the expense of diversity & inclusion. As per IDFC Institute Report 2016, in 16 simultaneous elections held between 1999 - 2014, the winner was from the same party in 77% of the cases; the metric has inched up from 68% in 1999 to 86% in 2014 which buttresses Prashant Bhushan’s view that the “absurd proposition” of simultaneous election is being pushed by the BJP since they believe that Modi’s perception as the strongest leader at the centre would be carried forward to the state elections too in the event of joint elections. The Parliamentary standing committee too in its report submitted, in 2015, has conceded that voting once every 5 years could deplete political accountability, marginalize regional parties & reduce voters ability to differentiate between local & national issues.

Nalini Singh telecast a program in the 1990s on how local strongmen subvert democracy & how country-made weapons are widely & easily available, a situation that has not changed much even today. It is prudent to therefore argue that if elections are spread out, then the concentrated deployment of security forces in the electoral areas, thus achieved, could help in the conduct of free & fair elections unlike a thinly spread out force in the case of simultaneous elections.

Are we barking the Wrong Tree?

India had 4215 members of the Vidhan Sabha & 543 members of the Lok Sabha, in 2014, for an electorate of 81 crores; thus an MLA represents a 2 lakh electorate & an MP 15 lakhs.  Generally, 30% of the eligible voters do not exercise their franchisee & a victor targets 50% of the rest of 1.4 lakhs i.e. 70,000 voters. As per The Hindu Business line article dated 6/4/2009, about 70% of the candidates expenditure is on liquor & cash & 10% each on vehicles, publicity & miscellaneous. The recent RK Nagar by poll in Tamil Nadu was countermanded since it was rumoured that about Rs 4000 was paid per voter as a bribe. Assuming a conservative expenditure of Rs 1000 per voter, a candidate has to expend about 7 crores per assembly constituency & assuming 3 serious candidates per constituency the spent is approximately 21 crores. Thus a total of about 1 lakh crores is spend by all candidates across the parliamentary & assembly seats in an election cycle; isn’t it surprising that instead of making an attempt to reduce this expenditure of 1 lakh crore – which, arguably, is black money – interested parties are barking the wrong tree by claiming that the EC would reduce its expenses to only 4500 crores in conducting simultaneous elections? Should the target not be to reduce the election expenditure of candidates & parties?

Today there is a cap on the candidate’s spending but none on the party spent; a party can & does spend multiple times the candidates spent. This loophole that gives substantial advantages to political parties at the expense of independent candidates needs to be plugged by

1(a)Spent for a Lok Sabha constituency - 70 lakhs (say) - should include both the candidate’s spent & the party spent

1(b)Parties & candidates should be mandated to put their expenses, booth wise, in the public domain to be audited not only by the EC but by a vigilant opposition & civil society with recourse to the courts & judgements within 1 year to create a self- fulfilling prophecy of auto correction.

(2)Donations to political parties should be put into the public domain even if it is 1 paise & not Rs 2000/- & above as is the current practice.

(4)Political Parties have not subjected themselves to the RTI act despite a CIC’s June 2013 ruling that defined political parties as “public authorities” under rule 2(h) of the Act. Parties could opt to remain opaque with regard to their internal deliberations but should subject themselves to RTI with regard to their income & expenditure.

Increase in Opacity

The BJP govt. vide Finance bill 2017 amended the Company  Act 2013 that barred companies from donating more than 7.5 % of the average profits of the company of the past 3 year & mandated disclosure of the beneficiary in their P&L Accounts. This is a regressive move since it rewards corporates with anonymity & limitless political funding that could encourage quid pro quo. Likewise, individuals or firms are now allowed to buy electoral bonds from the authorized banks vide cheque or electronic payments – which does help regulate undisclosed money – but giving it to political parties without revealing the beneficiary makes the reform legally opaque. Greater transparency is the need of the hour.

To circumvent an adverse Delhi High Court ruling of 28^th Mar 2014, on receipt of funding from foreign sources, by the BJP & the Congress, from Vedanta, in violation of the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act, 1976, the law was amended, retrospectively, in Finance Bill 2018. This encourages a feeling that political parties do not believe that the law of the land applies to them & collude to protect their interests.

Surely, if lawmakers are genuinely interested in electoral reforms, they should reduce opacity in political funding in a bid to dampen the influence of perverse money power before attempting the next reform of simultaneous elections.

Some unanswered questions

(1)If simultaneous elections are held & one of the 30 states or 5 union territories has a fractured verdict in the assembly & falls midway (say after 2 years), would

(a)Fresh elections be held & the new assembly so constituted remain in power only for the remaining part of the term as recommended by the EC?

(b)Would it remain under President’s rule for the entire 3 year period which gives untrammelled power to the centre? or

(c )The assembly is forced to cobble together an alternative by placing a “confidence” motion alongside a “no confidence motion” as suggested by the EC. Would this lead to the formation of “coercive alliances” bereft of ideological or program cohesion or encourage a whip driven tyranny as a consequence of the 10^th schedule?

(2)What happens if a member dies or is disqualified midterm due to the anti-defection law or vide corruption charges proved?

(3)Between 2014 - 2018 the BJP has won most of the assembly elections. In the case of simultaneous elections would the BJP dissolve all the state assemblies where they have recently won or seek to extend their tenures coterminous with the end of the next parliamentary term (2024 say) even as they curtain the tenures of the remaining states? A Parliamentary standing committee has recommended some assembly elections to be held along with the Parliamentary elections & the rest of the states in the mid-term of parliament.

(4) J&K has a 6 year term for the assembly unlike the rest of the Indian state assemblies & Parliament that have a 5 year term; even if simultaneous elections are agreed to, how do you conflate the J&K term issue that needs an amendment to be passed by the J&K state assembly/constituent assembly. Would the J&K issue boil over if their term is sought to be reduced to 5 years?

Conclusion

Former chief election commissioner SY Quraishi has addressed both the pros & the cons of the issue at hand & called the move “desirable but not feasible” since it is fraught with constitutional issues & administrative problems. In support of simultaneous elections he said that if we are in the election mode all the time we are we are in the corruption mode all the time. Since communalism, casteism, divisive & hate politics happens during the elections to be forgotten later, simultaneous elections could lead to the desirable consequence of 4.5 years of undisturbed peace. Against the move he opined that local issues are different from national issues & joint-elections could conflate the same. Likewise it is untrue he attests that people hate elections; in fact they love them since that is the only occasion politicians visit them & elections - if  not spread out - could possibly deny electorate the opportunity to see the face to the representative for the next 4.5 years. He cited an interesting slogan he overheard : “Jab jab election aata hai, tab tab gareeb ke pet me pulav aata hai”.

Indian democracy during the era of simultaneous elections till 1967 experienced the dominance of one party – the Congress - & replication of the same process could see the emergence of another – the BJP - & that perhaps explains the latter’s eagerness to pursue the measure. Today, the electorate votes at least thrice in a 5 year period for the Parliament, State & local body polls ensuring answerability & accountability; if simultaneous elections are held, will the political class hibernate only to emerge after 5 years?

Surely, having single electoral rolls from Panchayat to Parliament as suggested by the PM is a kosher argument & aadhar could be employed to make such logistics simpler; however, purging Indian democracy of money power should precede any attempts at holding simultaneous elections.

War Machines: India’s Options?

The security environment in India’s neighbourhood is getting graver by the day even as increasingly shriller voices for “self-determination” abound internally. Countering both the challenges with emotional speeches or chest thumping TV debates vide media operations to raise nationalistic passions would remain mere psychological operations unless intent is backed by adequate economic support & technological rigour under a broad strategic security doctrine. Alas, the Indian state appears guided more by ham-handed tactical pursuits rather than a strategic doctrine.

As per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, India was the largest importer of defence equipment during the period 2013-17, accounting for about 12% of the world’s defence imports followed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt & UAE in that order. Clearly, Middle East & the Indian sub- continent remain lucrative arms markets & hence great powers would actively refresh fault lines to grow defence trade exponentially. Denial of cutting edge tech transfers is a strategic attempt to gain captives; not surprisingly, “Make in India” has attracted only 1.17 crores of Defence FDI during the period 2013-17.

India designed & produced the Jet fighter Marut domestically – under  the famed German engineer Kurt Tank – who also designed the piston powered WW II era classic Focke Wulf Fw 190. Instead of pursuing domestic innovation with foreign help or reverse engineering India shifted to imports from the 1970’s under pressure from interested lobbies; China did otherwise. The Soviet Union provided Mig 21 designs to China, in 1962, as part of a rapprochement post the Sino-Soviet split in 1956 owing to doctrinal differences; China used the designs to produce their own indigenous J 7. Likewise post the bloody Tiananmen square crackdown on student protests, in 1989, & the denial of Western defence markets to China, Russia provided the Su 27’s which were reverse engineered to produce J 11s & later the naval version  J 15; now they appear to have stolen the stealth features of the F 22 from the US & incorporated those  into the J 20.  China has reduced its defence imports progressively even as it built domestic capacity & today is the world’s third largest arms exporter after the US & Russia with  Pak, Bangladesh & Myanmar being her largest clients indicative of their increasing encirclement & strangulation of India. The recent Indian defence policy document that proposes a target of 1.7 lakh crores of defence production with Rs 35000 crores of exports by 2025 is a well-intentioned though ambitious statement.

India has been constrained by a slow defence procurement process accentuated by corruption charges leading to the cancellation of contracts blunting the capability matrix of the armed forces. Post Bofors bought in 1980’s, no artillery was procured till very recently when a deal has been signed both with L&T & the US for howitzers; likewise no procurement of fighter aircraft post Su 30MKI deal in the 1996 till Rafale recently; the Light Combat Aircraft Tejas – an indigenous production is suffering from Range- 300KMs - & weight could be an issue for deploying the aircraft on aircraft carriers. Prudent to deploy short range Tejas on the western sector & the Long range Su 30MKI & Rafale against China supported by missile firepower across both the sectors.

Stalin once said “Quantity has a quality all its own”; India - suffering from a depleted strength of 31 squadrons against a requirement of 42 to tackle a two front war - should increase production of the Tejas by subletting additional lines to the private sector. Likewise, instead of stopping the production of the Su 30MKI, arrange for sharing technology with the private sector to build capacity. Increased nos. of 3rd/4^th gen fighters thus would be better than pleading for the 5^th Gen sheath designs or products from Russia or the US;pertinent to note that Russia offered S400 Missile systems to China before offering it to India.

However, a note of caution: just as the arms lobby & the National Rifle Association have become factors in the US elections, so too would the Indian Pvt. arms lobby unless  checks & balances are not incorporated. 

Following are some technologies that India should work on urgently

(1)Stealth Weapons: The US 5^th Gen Fighter aircraft - the F 35 - has stealth properties which works on the principle of bending light to escape detection vide “adaptive camouflage” of both the visual & thermal footprint; the Chinese have copied the designs.  While the Indians might evince interest in the F35 under the aegis of the Quad, the US is unlikely to allow for transfer of neither the technology nor the aircraft considering the strategic implications; clearly there is work to be done by the DRDO.

Perhaps, India should leapfrog to UVs (unmanned vehicles) – Unmanned aerial vehicles, undersea drones etc. – like China. Near space - which begins at about 20km above sea level - has been regarded as a “death zone” for drones. However, the Chinese tested two experimental unmanned aerial vehicles sent vide a high-pressure balloon & deployed it at different altitudes barely leaving any traces on radar due to their small size – the drones are small enough to fit in a shoebox and weigh about the same as a soccer ball.

Likewise, Stealth armour, if developed for special -forces, would serve as an “invisible cloak” that would be useful in conducting surgical strikes on enemy/terrorist training bases or hi value targets & hence should be pursued rigorously.

(2)Electromagnetic Products: India is seeking electromagnetic catapults from the US to launch fighter aircrafts from aboard its aircraft carriers. Vertical lift off & catapult launchers would offset the need for having ski board launchers on such carriers.

Both the US & China have made great strides in Electromagnetic guns - that use magnetic fields to thrust a projectile with a proven range of about 100 nautical miles instead of chemical propellants which are otherwise inflammable - & are ceaselessly working on bettering the range.

(3)Space Weapons: Arming the space orbitors with nuclear weapons or electromagnetic pulse weapons & launched to de-capacitate the command, control, computers, communication, Intelligence, Surveillance & reconnaissance capabilities would win wars without any single shot being fired. Unlike the ICBM’s that can be brought down by a missile shield or vide the Russian S 400 a space based attack has less reaction time & surface to air to satellite weaponry development is still in its infancy. High energy space based lasers should be the next phase.

(4)Cyber warfare: Apparently in 2016, 22000 pages of India’s Scorpene submarine designs were leaked from the French manufacturer cum designer – DCNS. Govt. websites including those of the PMO, Ministry of External Affairs, DRDO, and Indo Tibetan Border Police were defaced or hacked. A wikileaks report speaks of the “Equation Group.”- a clandestine CIA & NSA operation that penetrated Indian Military, Telecom & research institutes.

The Facebook saga & the Russian sabotage of US elections vide propaganda unleashed after consumer profiling is indicative of the increased sophistry of cyber-attacks. Blackout vide an externally induced  power grid failure, attack on stock exchanges & banks to unleash economic terror & crippling transportation networks are not unlikely scenarios any longer.  

India should be wary of weapons that obviates kinetic warfare altogether, by pre-emptively disabling an opponent’s ability to conduct military operations. Perhaps, the Chinese supply of telecom equipment, power plants etc. with bugs falls into such a strategy. Hence the need for the National technical Research Organization under R&AW, National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection centre – to protect Telecom, Defence, space, Banking, Transport & energy assets working alongside the tri-service Defence Cyber agency reporting to the National Security advisor.

Conclusion

There are no permanent friends or enemies in geopolitics & India's rise shall not go uncontested. Hence the need for India to develop indigenous capacity; armed forces should work closely with DRDO, Indian ordnance factories & the Indian private sector to develop & deploy products, avoiding the lust of the “foreign” tag. Jai Hind!!