Cabinet Expansion 2016: Understanding the Mind of Strategist Modi

The much touted cabinet expansion – with 19 new inductees - was announced recently increasing the size of the council of Ministers to a jumbo sized  78 against the constitutionally mandated limit of  82 & the first casualty was the slogan “Maximum Governance; Minimum Government”.  With the retention of Najma Heptullah & Kalraj Mishra in the cabinet, the second casualty was the decision enunciated in 2014 – when the NDA regained power - to kick up all leaders on attaining the age of 75 into superannuation;  Najma retains her position for being a loyal Muslim face of the party while Kalraj Mishra stays on for being a notable Brahmin face of UP where the impending elections necessitate the wooing of the Brahmin community who constitute a significant 13% of the state's population.

Many have criticized the current govt. for being low on talent forgetting that this was a consequence of their decision to renounce using of talent that they had; without the 75 age rule - meant largely to silent dissent -  Yashwant Sinha with stints in Finance & External Affairs could have handled either of those portfolios or the Commerce Ministries while Jaswant Singh – a former Colonel with administrative experience in, Defense, Foreign & Finance Ministries - perhaps post re-induction – would have made an excellent Defense Minister  helping  in tech transfers from abroad in the armed forces modernization drive. Arun Shourie as Finance Minister with his Disinvestment Ministry experience could have ensured that those targets are definitely met. Advani‘s exclusion was understandable considering the bad blood split but he would have added stature to the Home Ministry while Murli Manohar Joshi – a retired Professor at the Allahabad University - as HRD minister – a ministry he handled earlier - perhaps would have been less controversial.  

While those from the Margdarshak Mandal would have added depth to governance, a PMO led & a bureaucratic driven governance model makes Ministers irrelevant & that perhaps guided the PM’s thoughts then.  That still holds today.

Takeaways from the expansion

The list of newly appointed ministers of state includes three from poll-bound Uttar Pradesh, three each from Rajasthan and Gujarat, two from Maharashtra & one each from Uttarakhand and Assam.  Clearly no further expansions can be expected till 2017.

With allies smarting under what is seen as BJPs arrogance which led to desertions in states like TN, Modi is keen to keep the rest of the flock together & hence the induction of representatives from two allies—Anupriya Patel from Apna Dal in Uttar Pradesh and Ramdas Athawale from Republic Party of India. Anupria Patel – a Kurmi face – has been inducted to bring non Yadav OBCs into the party fold as also checkmate fellow Kurmi, Nitish Kumar in Purvanchal. Expect Nitish to woo the other faction of the Apna Dal headed by Anupriya's estranged mother Krishna.

Ramdas shall be used to lure Ambedkarites, a significant community at 32% & 20% respectively in poll bound Punjab & UP respectively.  Induction of Dalit leaders is an attempt to marginalize the BSP as also undo the damage caused by the Rohit Vemula controversy & the aggressive stances taken by Ministers like Irani who finally had to pay the price. The Dalit outreach - to make amends - shall continue. 

A seething Shiv Sena has been accommodated in the Maharashtra cabinet expansion – due to coalition compulsions - but not in Delhi. Its performance in the Mumbai Municipal elections would be an acid test that shall determine the future relationship between the two parties.

Amit Shah emerges the undisputed No 2. That he was seated next to the PM during the swearing in ceremony & all the prospective ministers were informed about their change in status by Shah buttresses this assessment; the later action is indeed perplexing for Modi does not savour a strong first line & did not offer Shah a cabinet role while in Gujarat. Clearly a defeat in the impending Punjab, UP, Uttarakhand elections would be palmed off on Shah who is seen as the architect of the reshuffle; a win shall strengthen his position further. Don’t be surprised if Shah is made CM of Gujarat just before the state elections for Anandiben is no Modi.  Ram Madhav who has shown the spunk during the J&K & Assam elections would get Shah’s role if the RSS has its way.

The axe did not fall on Mahesh Sharma, Niranian Jyoti, Sanjeev Baliyan et al indicating a silent acquiescence to their polarizing pronouncements & actions; Yogi Adityanath was not inducted as a balancing act -despite his importance in the impending UP elections – for that would have extinguished the possibility of plausible deniability.  VK Singh survives with the loss of the DONER Ministry to avoid hurting the feelings of the armed forces smarting as they already are on the OROP imbroglio.  As per Sidharth Varadarajan,  VK Singh wanted the name of Akbar road in Delhi to be changed but instead now has to share room space with another Akbar. MJ Akbar – a political gymnast – who shifted fortunes from the Congress to the BJP, is an erudite man though who could help in the diplomatic outreach efforts in the MENA (Middle East & North Africa).

The biggest gainer of the reshuffle is Prakash Javdekar who is the sole elevation to a cabinet portfolio from Environment to HRD; he is compensated for quick clearances of about 10lakh crores worth of projects & a decent handling of the Paris climate negotiations apart from his defense of the govt. in the media.  His replacement is someone who had an association with Narmada Bachao Andolan indicating the Modi now believes that a more balanced handling of environment concerns & investment needs are necessary to help him emerge as an international statesman.  Expect Javdekar to continue with the RSS agenda in HRD in a non- confrontationist way.

The Losers                  

The biggest loser of the current reshuffle was Arun Jaitley, a man who along with Amit Shah & Modi were seen as the Trimurthi leading the govt. His fall from grace coincided with what was seen as his abject lack of judgement on the Delhi results. He was given I&B & Finance – a very rare combination ever attempted – to have a carrot & stick policy towards the media which he has done reasonably well. But the FTII & CBFC fiascos did not help his cause.  The stern message to him is to put his head down to finance alone & deliver for the PM surely knows that despite the propaganda to the contrary the Indian growth rate is now being questioned by many including Ruchir Sharma & the US State Department; the inflation deflator being used to calculate GDP is perhaps the culprit.  The induction of Vijay Goal – a Jaitley baiter – compounds his problems. Piyush Goel – the outstanding power minister – did not get his much deserved elevation perhaps to placate Jaitley who would not like to see his protégé sharing space in Cabinet meetings.

Venkaiah Naidu’s shift to I&B was courtesy his reputation for rhyming sound bytes & strong defense of the govt. especially during the JNU crisis. He had reportedly expressed his desire to be shifted out of the Parliamentary affairs Ministry where his confrontationist posture was perpetuating the logjam giving him sleepless nights & his wish was granted. Anant Kumar takes this role with SS Ahluwalia as his deputy – the latter a prominent Sikh face to showcase during the  impending Punjab elections  as well as utilize his past connections with Congress leaders to break the legislative impasse.  The Parliamentary logjam however shall continue for the angst of the opposition is with what they see as an intransigent PM & not with the Ministers.

Smite Irani’s shift from Textbooks (Read HRD) to Textiles was shocking for she was seen as an articulate yet undiplomatic proponent of the RSS cause. This action is intended to send the signal that even loyalists cannot take their places for granted; they need to manage the brief without inviting adverse headlines. Detractors know anyway that Modi never forgives or forgets. Going forward, her shift to the UP heartland as a CM face is unlikely for she is neither a mass leader nor does she fit into the caste calculations of the State. Her shift – not to the organization but the textile ministry -  strengthens that assessment; her utility would be restricted to checkmate the Gandhis' & force them to concentrate on their pocket borough.   

The steady slide of Sadananda Gowda – the former CM of Karnataka – continues unabated.  He was initially placed in the Railways Ministry – a focus area of the govt. where he was seen as un- inspirational – shifted to Law – where he could not mitigate the troubles with the Judiciary - & has now been shifted to Statistics & Program implementation. While the spin doctors of the BJP would like us to believe that the Ministry’s importance is being upgraded, the reality is that this is clearly a demotion. Vokkaligas constitute the 2^nd largest community at 20% of the population in Karnataka & this lineage shall protect Gowda from being dropped from the Ministry in future too. Ravi Shankar Prasad regains Law to smoothen relations with the Judiciary including those on judicial appointments as also work on liberalization norms to allow the entry of foreign law firms through consultations with the Bar Council of India (BCI), the Society of Indian Law firms (SILF) et al. The PM could have felt that with Nripendra Mishra  - his Principal Secy. now - & the erstwhile TRAI head available at the PMO an experienced Minister heading Telecom is unnecessary. Prasad is also being sent a signal that he did not meet his brief on reducing call drops while at the Ministry.

Sinha faces the ire for having a voluble father – repeatedly critical of the PM – as well as his purported indiscretions – such as the introduction of his wife- a fund manager - to bankers. This is the sharpest signal to the patriarchs within the party that dynasts would be taken care off only if they silently walk into the sunset.

The Conclusion.

Clearly the expansion was a damp squib & the Congress tried to usurp the headlines on the same day through selective media leaks on Priyanka being the face of the party in the next UP elections; by the evening the reshuffle & its attendant surprises ensured that the narrative shifted to the govt. actions. Surely, the PM knows how to manage the headlines.