Elections-2014: Lessons Learnt

Elections are festoons of democracy and a remarkable conduit to usher in what Abraham Lincoln said in the Gettysburg Address, on November 19, 1863 “Government of the people, by the people and for the people”. The year 2014 started with a bang, with AAP renouncing power in Delhi. in February- to fight a national battle - after a 49 day stint, which was admired for its pro poor & anti-graft administration as much as it suffered the derision for its self-professed “anarchism”. The big game of 2014 was, however, the parliamentary elections, held during April & May that was preceded by the cacophony of TV debates & followed, immediately, by book launches, on the enormous significance of this election. No such grand standing here for my intent is to analyse the political events in its entirety and connect the dots to glean a few takeaways  

Lesson-1 “Nurture your constituency or risk political ignominy or worse, oblivion”

Looks obvious isn’t it? However this lesson is often breached, leading to an inglorious end to outstanding political careers. L K Advani is one such offender of this first principle. The BJP patriarch, even to his worst detractors, was the sculptor who moulded the party into the monolith it is today. Advani won the Lok Sabha seat from New Delhi in 1989 & a scare given by Rajesh Khanna, in 1991, forced him to shift to the Gandhinagar thereafter; the latter could not build on his initial electoral success & frittered it away – a repeat of the astounding loss of his super stardom.  

Advani, confident of his national stature, left the nurturing of his constituency to his trusted lieutenant Narendra Modi and Amit Shah; after all it was Advani who protected Modi from being sacked as Chief Minister after the “raj dharma” comment of the then Prime Minister, Vajpayee, post the 2002 Godhra riots. That things turned a full circle by 2013 is part of folklore; Advani’s plea to contest from Bhopal was rejected, sulk overlooked & he is forced to live in semi-retirement as part of the defunct “Margdarshak Mandal” of the BJP. So much for the “Loh Purush”

Rahul Gandhi case is an interesting one. The scion of the first family got the Amethi constituency, the family pocket borough, on a platter & for want of investment of time & effort was given a scare by AAP’s Kumar Vishwas & BJP’s Smriti Irani before he scraped through with a lower margin as compared to the previous election in 2009. Clearly, without clear articulation of his dreams & execution he would find re- election in 2019 difficult.

Lesson 2- “Parties lose but politicians don’t”

Chidambaram once said “We cannot have an affluent promoter and a sick company”. In India companies become bankrupt but promoters don’t. Taking the analogy further “parties India lose but politicians don’t”. As an example the congress pushed through Telengana which meant a definite decimation for the party in Seema-Andhra. However as soon as Telangana happened, most of the Congress MLA’a and MP’s, including ministers in the central cabinet, trooped out to find safe sanctuary in the YSR Congress, the TDP or the BJP. Similar experiences were replicated in the Maharashtra & Haryana elections too that were held in late 2014. We therefore witness a despicable situation where parties that once prided themselves on their ideological purity are now degenerating into entities offering a premium to win-ability alone which is the first sign of a decaying state. Politicians’, sauntering to cooler climes is only a part of the malady.

Lesson 3- “Social media is important,”

In May 2014, India had about 10 crore facebook, 3.3 crore twitter & 2.6 crore linkedin users. Thus, of an 81.4 crore electorate, about 12% had an access to facebook and a still lower percentage of people had access to other social media sites. With aggressive plans by all social media players to increase penetration, it is safe to assume that social media shall play a more decisive role in the next general elections to be held in 2019. With over 93 crore of  the 125 crore indian population enjoying mobile connectivity & the figure only likely to rise northward by 2019, expect targeted, customized mobile advertising by all political parties by such time Politicians have transitioned from image management through carefully curated press leaks to well-groomed exclusive bytes as per the demands of 24x7 TV channels. They now have the daunting task of being media friendly & tech savvy too – a transition to the latter has the potent possibility of speaking over the media to the electorate thereby reducing the costs of intermediation. Will they take the leap?

Lesson 4- “Don’t spread yourself too thin”

“Marketing warfare” & the principle of contraction defence indicates that rather than spreading forces too thin, concentrating forces at one vantage point enhances the chances of victory. Had AAP digested this universal law, it would not have recommended dissolution of the Delhi assembly but concentrated, instead, its forces in the national capital & supported by the strength of the government machinery achieved a spectacular victory, cementing its position further. Had it been more ambitious & resourceful, it could have concentrated its efforts on states surrounding NCR - Punjab, Haryana, HP & Western UP & not contest over 400 seats - which it finally did - with disastrous consequences. While AAP’s attempt to create a national footprint, quickly, riding on a positive sentiment, had its own sets of admirers, it is now clear that spreading themselves thin - both in terms of human & financial resources -  led to a disaster.

Therefore, the year, 2014, shall go down in history as a year that hosted a watershed election, run in a presidential style & helped a man - with humble beginnings, born after Indian independence in 1947 - to become Prime Minister. Likewise the political canvas in India which was always Congress Vs the rest is slowly but surely shifting towards a new paradigm:  BJP vs the rest. The increase in polling percentages across all states including the recent J&K elections as well as the emergence of change agents like AAP gives us hope that India shall evolve into “participative” democracy from merely being a “representative” one. With lessons learnt democracy in India shall not only survive but achieve greater heights.

Peshawar Killings: Nawaz The Gainer

The gruesome murder of 132 children in an army school at Peshawar has elicited international condemnation- rightly so- & for once the Pakistani government has refused to differentiate between “good & bad” Taliban. The incident is numbing as the dastardly killing was retaliation against the Zarb-e-azb campaign launched by the armed forces against the Pakistani Taliban in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). This is but a grim reminder that the fight against terror therefore can have bloody consequences. Unfortunately, we are condemned to swim in the “crimson tide”. At this juncture it is pertinent to remember Hillary Clinton’s words “you can't keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbours. Eventually those snakes are going to turn on whoever has them in the backyard," The Pakistani top brass build up the Taliban as a strategic asset to be deployed as per necessity in the neighbourhood but unfortunately their nuanced strategy has boomeranged, incinerating its benefactors in the process.

Certain sections of the press & Government across the border have accused India of connivance in the plot despite the Taliban publicly claiming responsibility; after all no caper is complete without India being part of the same. 16^th of December, incidentally is the day when India won a remarkable victory, in East Pakistan, in 1971; that the Peshawar incident happened on the same day is not seen as a coincidence but strategic scheming.  However, a closer look at the sequence of events shows that Nawaz Sharif, paradoxically, seems to be the biggest gainer of this episode.  Let us look dispassionately at the power calculus in Pakistan.

·          In the general elections held in 2013, Pakistan Muslim League (N)’s Nawaz Sharif became  the PM of Pakistan while his main opponent Imran Khan, representing his party Tehreek-e-Insaaf, formed the government in the state of  Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,  whose capital is Peshawar. It is rumoured that Imran won Khyber, courtesy a deal with the Taliban, in lieu of which he was asked to publicly announce his support for talks with the Taliban & renounce military action. Imran complied.

·         Imran was drawing remarkable crowds in 2013 and presumed that being elected to become a PM was only a formality. However the elections proved otherwise which prompted Imran to protest on the contention that elections were rigged. 

·         The Canadian Cleric, Tahirul Qadri & Imran Khan, purportedly supported by the army, to clip the wings of Nawaz, launched a tirade against the incumbent government & brought Islamabad to a standstill. Nawaz, unwillingly, had to seek the Army’s help for diffusing tensions & unwillingly part with certain concessions especially on foreign policy & army budgets. He has thus become a lame duck & was seething all this while.

·         Imran, meanwhile, planned another protest in Islamabad starting the 18^th of Dec, which apart from the nuisance factor had the potential of either bringing the government down or cull Nawaz’s power further.

·         Attack happens on the Army school on 16^th Dec.

·         Imran either had an option to keep quiet or support the Taliban cause which would have eroded his popularity amongst the public. It would have invited the ire of the army too which would have torpedoed his chances of becoming a Prime Minister in future. The most sensible option for him was to side with the government, be part of the all party conference held on 17^th Dec & publicly condemn the act which could raise the shackles of the Taliban & invite their retribution.  Nawaz gains either way.

·         The army is all fired up since the Taliban have attacked their kin & would leave no stone unturned to wipe them out. In pursuit, the army could inflict collateral damage of innocent civilians who get caught in the crossfire. If Imran protests the killings he invites the ire of the army & if he doesn’t the ire of the Taliban & the public. Imran is finished either way.

·         Nawaz meanwhile sees a window of opportunity to checkmate the army. He has already seized the initiative by promising not to differentiate between “Good & Bad Taliban” thereby gaining international support; this will act as an insurance against his likely putsch.

·         The army shall be busy fighting the Pakistani Taliban while the Afghan Taliban & the Hakkani network shall be busy trying to topple the Afghan government while strategic assets like the Jamaat-ud-Dawa or Hizbul Mujahideen would be deployed against India.

Nawaz Sharif is smiling now & has valuable time on his hands to claw back & reclaim his power; the wily old political survivor has done it again.

Telecom Disruptors

There is a veritable game of football being played between the Telecom Commission & the telecom regulator, TRAI, regarding the price for spectrum auctions, with the former disputing the floor price recommended by the latter. In such a slugfest, the sector is the unfortunate victim & bound to suffer.

Telecom firms are under stress; their balance sheets are weighed down by debt taken either for paying for acquisitions abroad or for paying for spectrum domestically or for both. There is a clear & present danger of disruptions rocking the sector too & the operators as well as the government are well advised to take cognisance of the same and initiate suitable policy prescriptions.

The likely disruptions are as follows

Disruptor 1: White spaces

“White spaces” are the unused broadcasting frequencies in the wireless spectrum, generally in the range of 470-790 MHz; it varies with time & location.  TV networks leave gaps between channels for buffering purposes which can be used for offering wireless services. While a typical Wi-Fi can travel through 2 walls, white space technology can travel upto 10 Kms through vegetation & buildings, thereby providing a higher range which translates into lower costs & hence promotes ”affordability”. In a paper presented, Gaurang Naik & others have indicated that the UHF TV band, in India, is in the 470-590 MHz range & about 70% of the same could be freed through this approach.

“White spaces” have been tested in many countries, including the UK, US, Singapore, Tanzania & South Africa. In North Carolina, from 2011 onwards, it has been used to monitor water levels, turn on & off park lights remotely, offer public broadband & connect infrastructure; clearly promotion of the same has many public policy advantages including the creation of “smart cities”- the pet project of Prime Minister Modi.

In June, 2013, the US Federal Communications commission (FCC) allowed Google to operate the national database detailing which bits of "white spaces"  are available in what area & at what time. Google has developed a software program that logs into the database using an API (Application protocol interface) & helps devices find configuration details without human intervention. The API, to individuals, is free while a commercial license is issued, for businesses. Adaptrum, the first business paying for such access, offers public Wi-Fi, at West Virginia University.

This disruption opens up the enticing possibility of a new operator selling routers to customers who can log on to “white spaces” & consume telecom services perhaps at very attractive rates, bamboozling the existing telecom business models in the bargain.

Disruptor 2: Alternate Network connectivity Mechanisms

Facebook is engaged with experimenting with solar powered drones & Google with “loon” balloons to provide network connectivity. Further, femto cells, sold to consumers to be installed at homes, have the potential of creating Wi-Fi spaces & certain innovative operators could take advantage of such a scenario.

Google’s Project “loon”, consists of balloons that float in the stratosphere and travel in the desired direction taking advantage of wind layers. In partnership with cellular companies they share spectrum & provide connectivity to people. While land based infrastructure could be demolished during natural calamities – as it happened in Uttarakhand, Srinagar, Vizag et al - the stratosphere based one works at all times & also serves the cause of .disaster recovery. This technology has been tested in New Zealand, US (California) & North-Eastern Brazil

Facebook plans to launch solar powered drones flying, “above weather, above all airspace” between 60-90000 ft. above the ground. While it is currently constrained by the regulation regarding every drone being necessarily manned by a human, it has identifies 21 locations in Africa, Latin America & Asia where it is planning to test the technology next year.

Disruptor 3: VOIP & OTT

VOIP (Voice over Internet protocol) like Skype & Viber have the potential of cannibalizing the voice revenues of operators. Airtel, therefore, attempted to challenge “net neutrality” principles, though it has no legal sanctity yet, by launching a controversial product with other telcos planning replication. However, airtel was forced to beat a hasty retreat, soon, under public pressure and perhaps a nudge from the regulator. Chile, Brazil, Slovenia & Netherlands have net neutrality laws that mandate treatment of all internet traffic equally & forbid preferential access to any content or app players by telcos, obviously, for a consideration.  Chile’s laws go a step further &  forbid “ zero rating” of services as per which players like Google, Facebook et all tie up with telcos to offer basic versions of their services to customers without charging for data, perhaps, as a quid pro quo for offering a share of a their hi end service revenues to the telcos.

The EU parliament, in April 2014, has voted in favour of net neutrality which shall be adopted as a law once ratified by the EU council of Ministers.  Obama has come out strongly in favour of the same in the US. Telcos, therefore, should brace themselves to experience a drop in voice revenues; will their data revenues grow to more than compensate the loss is however left to conjecture.

Disruptor 3: Death of SMS, Roaming et al

Established telcos are getting jitters not only from tech changes alone but also changes in consumer behaviours affecting the existing revenue streams of operators. As an example, SMS is dying a slow death with the growth of messenger services. Apps such as BBM (Blackberry messenger) which is now O/S agnostic, WhatsApp, WeChat et al can create a tsunami in the industry wiping out established players & business models in the process. As a counter, Bharti-Softbank has launched its own messenger service HIKE on 12/12/12 which shall serve as a good insurance against implementation of “net neutrality”.

Roaming revenue too is being seriously challenged by players like Skype & the regulator with the intention of creating a truly “One country” plan.  PBX, too, is now available on the cloud and call centres are being offered as a service.

What should the governments do?

Governments face conflicting interest groups while deciding on the contours of telecom policy. At one end is the lure of auctioning spectrum that has the advantage of ensuring windfall cash flows that help plug budget deficits; such a course shall help Governments to escape accusations  of discretion in decision making, favouritism & the attendant court cases there-off. At the other end of the debate spectrum is the need to promote “affordability”- a euphemism for cheap prices- for consumers. Readers are advised to jog down memory lane to 1999 when GOI, faced with a similar crisis, transitioned to a “revenue share” regime that is accepted as the genesis of the telecom revolution. Therefore, to promote “affordability” the government has to keep spectrum auction prices low or lower spectrum usage charges -currently trending between 3-8% except for BWA of 2300MHz which is at 1%- or reduce revenue share to revive the sector’s fortunes. Rolling out spectrum trading rules & a roadmap of spectrum auctions shall help the telcos plan their long term business plans.

Government should stop being myopic & plan long term for disruption of the existing telecom business models is but a harsh reality.

Movie Review: "Ugly"

“Ugly” is an outstandingly “beautiful” film with director Anurag Kashyap in his true elements, showcasing the dark underbelly of Mumbai  through the interplay of human emotions which cannot be typecast as either black or white since there are abounding shades of grey. The movie begins with a worn out, brooding, desperate woman jutting a revolver into her mouth, attempting a suicide & ends with shots of a fetid, rotten girl of ten tied to an abandoned scooter under the cover of a sheet.  Both those images, raw, in the face kind are very disturbing indeed.

Anurag Kashyap made the movie in 2013 but the release got delayed  courtesy his run in with the censor board, surprisingly, not on the contours of content but his apparent refusal to comply with statutory warning guidelines against smoking. He relented, eventually, under protest & released it on 26^th Dec’14. Clearly, connoisseurs have a reason to protect since they were denied the luxury of seeing a delightful movie for over a year.

The screenplay is taut & the editing fine enhanced by excellent performances by actors who are not too well known. The film raises a toast to a new breed of actors who are as much gifted as they are wedded to the art. The main protagonist, Rahul Bhat (Rahul Varshney) an aspiring actor, rechristens himself as Rahul Kapoor, apparently to ride on a better brand name just like his illustrious predecessors. He marries Tejeshwani Kolhapuri (Shalini Bhat), a college sweetheart & has a child Anshika Srivastava (Kali). The love in the “love marriage” is soon dumped by the wayside as Rahul maniacally concentrates on his fledging career alone neglecting his wife, who seeks succour in liquor & financial support of her parents, which her husband resents.  Neglect has the potential of creating rebounds. When, Tejeshwani  encounters praise from her husband’s friend Vineet singh (Chaitanya), she doesn’t bat an eyelid engaging in a one night stand; she suffers from no remorse or  regret, putting her daughter to deep slumber aided by a liberal dose of sleeping pills. Ultimately, she lands in the arms of Ronit Roy (Shoumik Bose), the current police commissioner & the erstwhile jilted lover, who puts her into a claustrophobic house arrest & even taps her phones. The stark paradox in that while she constantly explores for love she neither finds it in marriage nor affairs..  

The movie gathers pace when Rahul picks up his daughter on a Saturday for a day out & finds her kidnapped. The first suspect is killed by a speeding vehicle & soon the thriller gains momentum with various stakeholders trying to raise the demand for ransom. The needle of suspicion is constantly twirling & that is the beauty of the script. Dark humour plays itself out especially in the scenes where Rahul, in a police station to report the kidnapping is interviewed by the police officer Girish Kulkarni (Jadhav). This is only a testimony of police indifference; police brutality is revealed much later.

The layering of human psyche & complex nuances of character are very well etched out. Ronit believes in “putting woman on a leash” & hence denies financial freedom to his wife & doesn’t partake in conjugal activities either but is an upright police officer who rebukes his wife for recommending favours to  her brother Siddhanth Kapoor (Siddhanth) who is constantly on the lookout of ”quick rich” schemes. He dislikes Rahul but likes his daughter & makes a sincere attempt to retrieve her. Rahul, on the contrary, a man who is constantly worried about his good looks & acting assignments is however a doting father, nevertheless.  Post the split with his wife he has moved on to have a relationship with an item girl, Surveen Chawla (Rakhi Malhotra).  Tejeshwani is a loving mother who is keen to pay off the ransom demanded by the kidnapper to save her daughter but suffers no moral turpitude from appropriating a portion of the ransom amount to fulfil her own aspirations. Vineet is a dear friend who supports a struggling Rahul but has no qualms bedding his wife or demanding a ransom.

“Ugly” is therefore genuinely “ugly” since no body is pronounced innocent at the end. Unlimited greed, pelf, ambition, violence & power create an obnoxious cocktail that reeks of the degeneration of human values & spirit. Ugly in short is ugly beyond anything. Recommend viewing.

Movie Review: "PK"

Raju Hirani’s “PK “, a satire on God & Godmen, with Aamir Khan as the chief protagonist, is a good movie - not a great one. The transition from “good to great” was eloquently brought out by Jim Collins, in a book, by the same name; however that is not the topic of this review & hence we shall let that pass. Readers could be perplexed with this argument especially when the film is racing towards becoming, perhaps, the biggest grosser of all time, overtaking "Dhoom 3"; therein lies the crux, for "Dhoom 3", too, by no means would be categorized as a great movie since collections alone doth not make a film great. Needless to add that collections are pushed northward courtesy controversy & agitations.

Raju Hirani’s "Munnabai MBBS", its sequel "Lage Raho Munna Bhai" & "3 idiots" were great movies for they were trailblazing not only in their script selection but also plot treatment. Likewise, Aamir’s "Lagaan" & "Sarfarosh" too were outstanding movies for they explored new niches. "OMG (Oh My God)" belonging to the same genre as "PK" is of a far higher standing, embossed as it was by an outstanding performance by the redoubtable Paresh Rawal.

Now coming to PK, we are introduced to a humanoid alien, played by Aamir, who lands up stark naked, with only a transmitter for company, in a Rajasthan desert. The transmitter is the only connection between the extra-terrestrial & the spaceship; a signal is necessary to facilitate travel back home. The action starts when his device is flipped by a thief who mounts a speeding train leaving the ET in the lurch; not before our protagonist snatches a boombox to cover his modesty. This shot was frozen & all of us exposed to the same in promos & posters which courted controversy but in the theatre invited catcalls & guffaws.

The journey of the alien to retrieve the device forms the remaining part of the movie; in the process the people’s leanings - of the religious kind - form part of the alien’s learnings. The alien bred in a planet where there is no language spoken & communication is only through telepathy has to first learn the language on earth. This necessitates data transfer of knowledge from a native to the alien, the prerequisite of which is a data cable - alien clasping a native's hands. While making such attempts he is shooed off by all, mistaking it for his depraved sexual proclivity, till a prostitute shows him mercy. Language learned, the alien, now, blurts out excellent Bhojpuri. Introduced to the sweet juices of a paan, by the prostitute, he enjoys it consumption throughout the movie.  Aamir supposedly ingested more than 1000 paans during the course of the movie to make it realistic. Not sure if the alien too was impressed by the “Swatch Bharat’ message since he refrains from turning the earth into a red spittoon as all of us lesser mortals are wont to do. The world, exposed to his quirky disposition & awkward questions, pronounces him as PK (tipsy in Hindi). The alien, now, has a name.

PK learns that the snap of a person, later identified as Gandhi, when exchanged, facilitates transfer of goods which in his case is a bunch of carrots for consumption. Not sure what the medium of exchange in his planet is, for a spaceship to earth indicates a remarkably advanced race; do they use plastic or something better still? Surely, he is perplexed & he hands over posters, photos et al bearing Gandhi’s image but is repeatedly rebuked till he hands over a currency note bearing the same image, when, finally, he is rewarded. The revelation is stark: Gandhi is useful only on a currency note. The posters of Gandhi are later seen strewn on the roads a veritable “grounding to the dust” of the man & his principles. It is a poignant sight. Raju Hirani, to his credit, shows consistency in sticking to the Gandhian track from Munnabhai to PK.& if Goebbels is to be believed such repetition shall lead to a genuine beliefs. Needless to say, it is welcome.

The writer duo, Hirani & Abhijit Joshi, has sharp insights into the quirky eccentricities across religions. A coconut is a must in a temple while it is unwelcome in a church just as wine is a "must have" in the latter while it is resented in a mosque. Likewise, a woman in white indicates widowhood for Hindus, while wedding gowns are only in white for Christians, whose colour of brooding is black, which incidentally is the colour of the burkha, a regular wear for Muslims. Are these differences of attire in faith part of what marketers call “brand differentiation”?

The ET, though in love himself, manages to reunite the 2 lovers Anushka Sharma (Jagat Janani) & Sushat Singh Rajput (Sarfaraz) living across the borders which is a common thread across many recent movies including Veer Zara, Agent Vinod, Ek tha Tiger et all, perhaps, due to box office considerations. We are however told that it is to promote peace across borders & religions.

PK retrieves the device after a verbal duel with Godman, Saurabh Shukla (Tapsavi) & finally returns to his planet. Not sure why he carries so many batteries to charge his boombox; does the advanced race not have any other energy sources?  He revisits Earth, a year later, with his mates, which includes Ranbir Kapoor. Would we see Ranbir as part of the sequel. Well, your guess is as good as mine.

Recommend viewing since it is a courageous film which does not question the presence of God but questions in its own quirky way the business of religion under which middlemen flourish. 

Telecom: What Next?

The Indian telecom industry has passed through several turbulent phases & emerged stronger. While mobile telecom services were rolled out in 1995, the high bids thereon made the business plans unviable which necessitated government intervention. The new telecom policy (NTP), in 1999, brought about a seamless transition from a fixed license fee regime to a revenue share one. The NPT also allowed for the entry of an additional operator & drop in peak tariffs which helped all stakeholders: the industry; the government; & the consumer. The operators were relieved of huge upfront payments, the government gained through an ever expanding revenue share pie and higher service tax revenues while the customer gained through price drops courtesy enhanced competition.

The industry was well served by an understanding regulator & enterprising operators. The foresight of the regulator regarding the policy prescription of calling party pays (CPP) in 2003-as per which a customer paid only for outgoing calls unlike the case earlier when he had to pay for both incoming & outgoing - gave a positive spiral to the industry. Likewise, launch of “lifetime validity” in 2005-06 by the operators expanded the industry exponentially. Today, commendably, about 93 crore  of the 125 crore Indian citizens have mobile connectivity  which has aided commerce, democratized information & going forward shall be the major vector driving “Digital India”

Such astounding growth would not have been a reality but for enterprising operators driving innovations Bharti Airtel, initiated an Indian innovation: the “Minutes factory” model -wherein fixed costs were converted to variable costs (capex to opex) through outsourcing of IT, call centres & network operations. Outsourcing of non-core operations to specialists led to increased economies of scale & savings thereof which were passed on to the customers through reduced prices that drove minute elasticity creating a self-fulfilling virtuous cycle.  International innovations were welcomed & integrated into business models.  MTN, South Africa, in a bid to optimize network utilization is credited to have launched the “dynamic discounting model”-dropping tariffs, cell site wise, based on location & time of the day & intimated to the customers through cell broadcasts- which got replicated, in India, by Uninor. Econet, Zimbabwe pioneered a “location based management” system-which involved geo tagging of customers, cell site wise which was of immense help in concluding decisions regarding profitability; this was replicated in India by Bharti. Zain, Africa, was the first to launch a “one network plan”-that helped customers to make calls at local rates across 12 countries; this got replicated in India as the “One India plan” by all operators. Remittance models launched by SMART Philippines & Vodafone Kenya (M-Pesa) are currently under replication. Going forward, telcos, if interested, could emerge as large “Payment banks” thereby entering into the banking domain. That, is only phase 1 of the transformational exercise currently underway.

Operators continuously seek new avenues for revenue enhancement not only to satisfy their shareholders but also to pay off for the spectrum auctions. Airtel made one such attempt to tamper with “net neutrality” by charging extra for VOIP (Voice over Internet protocol) which received a rebuff recently. Clearly, preferential treatments or differential treatments to OTT (over the top) players or other content players, by any operator would be under severe regulatory scrutiny henceforth, thereby ruling out such revenue enhancement plays.

That begs the question: what next?

ICE convergence & Quad Core Play: 

ICE - Information Technology, Communications & entertainment convergence is now a reality. Recently the Argentina government has allowed for a single licence for operating ISPs (Internet service providers), tele-communications & television stations. In UK, key operators are displaying an intent for active quad core - Mobile, landline, broadband & TV- play. British telecom (BT) which started a TV channel “BT Sports” in 2012 is now attempting an acquisition of the mobile business of EE, the 2^nd largest operator in UK. Incidentally, BT, had divested its mobile business, in 2001, to Telephonica, Spain (currently running as band O2 in UK) & was operating its landline & broadband businesses alone. The importance of content can be understood from the fact that BT Sports bid aggressively & won exclusive rights over the EPL (English premier league) which it intends to bundle with the other services on offer. Vodafone - a major mobile player - & SKY - a major media player - are therefore planning interesting counters. In USA we have already seen AT&T DirecTV & Verizon Comcast tie ups. Similar reactions by operators in India therefore would not be surprising. Reliance jio has already sounded the bugle by taking over Network 18 which already owns Eenadu channels & web properties.

Crowdsourcing: 

Telcos should work on crowdsourcing ideas internally, funded in a start-up format, marketed aggressively & revenues shared with the innovators.  AT&T has already fine-tuned such a model with great success. This initiative should be supplemented by “appathons” in colleges & schools not only to create a youth connect but also to strengthen the app ecosystem thereby creating greater customer stickiness & an additional revenue stream. Such a change in mindset at telecom firms needs infusion of talent from IT product companies which is an HR challenge.

Strengthen Enterprise Service Play: 

Telcos should move beyond their legacy enterprise play by offering data centres & data security services. They should encourage enterprises on vendor consolidation & shift their requirements to the cloud. Offerings such as  software as a service (SaaS) would provide a new edge to their SME ( Small & Medium enterprises) drive. Since telcos already have data analytics specialists, especially in the marketing domain, they are well advised to hive off the vertical & offer “Big Data & Analytics” services Valuations commanded by companies such as Mu Sigma indicate that such a strategy shall be a winner.

Mobile Advertising: 

Telcos have captive information on mobile users which could be utilized for offering personalized mobile advertising services. Advertisers suffering the ill effects of clutter would be more than keen to play along.

All this & more, has the potential of bringing telcos in direct confrontation with IT firms who are strengthening their offerings in SMAC (social, mobile, analytics, cloud ) domains. The entertainment play shall bring them in direct conflict with media companies. Therefore, ICE convergence offers a plethora of options to telcos & each of them has the freedom to pursue its own blue ocean strategy

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