The gruesome murder of 132 children in an army school at Peshawar has elicited international condemnation- rightly so- & for once the Pakistani government has refused to differentiate between “good & bad” Taliban. The incident is numbing as the dastardly killing was retaliation against the Zarb-e-azb campaign launched by the armed forces against the Pakistani Taliban in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). This is but a grim reminder that the fight against terror therefore can have bloody consequences. Unfortunately, we are condemned to swim in the “crimson tide”. At this juncture it is pertinent to remember Hillary Clinton’s words “you can't keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbours. Eventually those snakes are going to turn on whoever has them in the backyard," The Pakistani top brass build up the Taliban as a strategic asset to be deployed as per necessity in the neighbourhood but unfortunately their nuanced strategy has boomeranged, incinerating its benefactors in the process.
Certain sections of the press
& Government across the border have accused India of connivance in the plot
despite the Taliban publicly claiming responsibility; after all no caper is
complete without India being part of the same. 16th of December,
incidentally is the day when India won a remarkable victory, in East Pakistan,
in 1971; that the Peshawar incident happened on the same day is not seen as a
coincidence but strategic scheming.
However, a closer look at the sequence of events shows that Nawaz Sharif,
paradoxically, seems to be the biggest gainer of this episode. Let us look dispassionately at the power
calculus in Pakistan.
·
In the
general elections held in 2013, Pakistan Muslim League (N)’s Nawaz Sharif
became the PM of Pakistan while his main
opponent Imran Khan, representing his party Tehreek-e-Insaaf, formed the
government in the state of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,
whose capital is Peshawar. It is
rumoured that Imran won Khyber, courtesy a deal with the Taliban, in lieu of
which he was asked to publicly announce his support for talks with the Taliban
& renounce military action. Imran complied.
·
Imran was drawing remarkable crowds in 2013 and
presumed that being elected to become a PM was only a formality. However the
elections proved otherwise which prompted Imran to protest on the contention
that elections were rigged.
·
The Canadian Cleric, Tahirul Qadri & Imran Khan,
purportedly supported by the army, to clip the wings of Nawaz, launched a
tirade against the incumbent government & brought Islamabad to a
standstill. Nawaz, unwillingly, had to seek the Army’s help for diffusing
tensions & unwillingly part with certain concessions especially on foreign
policy & army budgets. He has thus become a lame duck & was seething
all this while.
·
Imran, meanwhile, planned another protest in
Islamabad starting the 18th of Dec, which apart from the nuisance
factor had the potential of either bringing the government down or cull Nawaz’s
power further.
·
Attack happens on the Army school on 16th
Dec.
·
Imran either had an option to keep quiet or support
the Taliban cause which would have eroded his popularity amongst the public. It
would have invited the ire of the army too which would have torpedoed his
chances of becoming a Prime Minister in future. The most sensible option for
him was to side with the government, be part of the all party conference held
on 17th Dec & publicly condemn the act which could raise the
shackles of the Taliban & invite their retribution. Nawaz gains either way.
·
The army is all fired up since the Taliban have
attacked their kin & would leave no stone unturned to wipe them out. In pursuit,
the army could inflict collateral damage of innocent civilians who get caught
in the crossfire. If Imran protests the killings he invites the ire of the army
& if he doesn’t the ire of the Taliban & the public. Imran is finished
either way.
·
Nawaz meanwhile sees a window of opportunity to
checkmate the army. He has already seized the initiative by promising not to
differentiate between “Good & Bad Taliban” thereby gaining international
support; this will act as an insurance against his likely putsch.
·
The army shall be busy fighting the Pakistani
Taliban while the Afghan Taliban & the Hakkani network shall be busy trying
to topple the Afghan government while strategic assets like the Jamaat-ud-Dawa
or Hizbul Mujahideen would be deployed against India.
Nawaz Sharif is smiling now & has
valuable time on his hands to claw back & reclaim his power; the wily old political
survivor has done it again.
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