The results of the 5 Indian state elections, announced on 10th March, gave a 4:1 verdict in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) versus the opposition. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won Punjab while the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the remaining 4 states– Uttar Pradesh (UP), Uttarakhand (UK), Goa & Manipur. Not surprisingly, Prime Minister (PM) Modi, perhaps, as part of a psychological warfare, to demoralize the opposition, averred, in his victory speech that the UP state election victory, of 2022, is predictive of BJPs national Parliamentary election victory in 2024 just as the state election victory in 2017 heralded a BJP win, in 2019; obviously, he is not unaware that a week is a long time in politics.
Meanwhile, Raghav Chadda, Punjab
Co-Incharge, announced AAP to be the “natural & national” replacement of
the Indian National Congress (INC) leading Digvijay Singh, of the Congress, to cheekily
tweet that “AAP would win in only those
states that the BJP has no stakes”. With
AAP making inroads into BJP ruled states like Goa & Gujarat & with an
impressive performance in the Surat & Ahmedabad Municipal Elections, INC’s jab
lacks punch.
Chadda, prematurely, added that
given an opportunity, Kejriwal shall be seen in a “bigger role of Prime
Minister”. AAP is in power in the 2 states of Delhi (7 Lok Sabha seats) &
Punjab (13 Lok Sabha seats), a total of 20 only of which it might secure around
10 seats, in 2024, while parties like the Samajwadi Party (SP) in UP or AITC
(All India Trinamool Congress) in Bengal, could win more than 20, making a
pitch for PM difficult. Devi Gowda becoming PM, in 1996, with the support of a
small no. of MPs from Karnataka, is more of an exception rather than the rule.
Not surprisingly, the Chief Ministers (CM) Mamata Banerjee (Bengal) & KCR (Telangana), nursing Prime Ministerial ambitions,
did not even send the customary congratulatory wishes on AAP’s Punjab win;
neither did other CMs Stalin (Tamil Nadu TN), Uddhav Thackery (Maharashtra) & Hemant Soren (Jharkhand) - who are more aligned with the
congress - laying bare the mask of opposition unity; the BJP must be smiling.
The Election highlights:
(1)The electorally significant
state of UP with 80 Lok sabha seats, was retained by the BJP, albeit with a
reduced majority from 312 to 255 seats, in a 403 member house, heralding a record 2nd
consecutive term for the same party since 1985; its allies added to the nos. The 16 point gap between the BJP (48%) vs. SP
(32%) among women voters – as per the Axis – My India exit poll - attributed to
the efficient delivery of welfare, including ration & maintenance of law
& order, better than its predecessor, might have tilted the scales
decisively, overriding the negative sentiment against the
party due to the heavy loss of lives during Covid. Some pundits’ predicted the emergence of Yogi
Adityanath – aka “Bulldozer Baba” – as the natural successor to Modi, but the
narrative was quickly squelched by BJP leaders like Amit Malviya – head of the
IT cell & Central Minister Jitendra Singh, with the reasoning that in the
BJP’s hierarchy, it is Modi on rungs 1-10 & any other leader comes only
thereafter indicating that the Modi - Yogi fault lines remain unbridged. There
are other contenders like Amit Shah for succession. Worth remembering that History
is replete with instances where an identified successor does not make it or a ‘compromise
candidate”- like Lal Bahadur Sastry, the first "accidental Prime Minister" - emerges to save the party.
Reverting to the elections, the
UP contest was reduced to a bipolar one between BJP (vote share of 41.3%, 255 seats)
& SP (32.1% with 111 seats) consequent to the decimation of the Bahujan Samaj
party (BSP), reduced to 1 seat with 12.88% vote share against their normal 20%.
The slow withering of Jatav Mayawati’s hold over the non-Jatav Dalit votes,
shifting towards the BJP, because of their concerted efforts, especially, to
draw in the Pasis, appears to be displaying a successful trend line. Muslims consolidated behind SP to make their vote count.
(2)AAP secured a thumping victory
in Punjab winning 92 of the 117 seats with a 42% vote share against INC (23%)
& Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD 18.4%). The
defeat of bigwigs like the incumbent Chief Minister Charanjit Channi (lost both
the seats he contested), Congress State Chief Navjot Sidhu & the Badals
(SAD) indicates that the people of the state have given the “Delhi Party” a
chance to replicate its impressive work on healthcare & education in the
neighbouring state. If successful, it can mount a challenge, against the BJP, in
the neighbourhood – Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand too – beleaguering the
already declining INC.
However, AAP could face a
challenge in implementing its promises, in Punjab, considering the less than
healthy state of the state exchequer. Owning nearly the entire ”smog ecosystem”
– as some tweeple cheekily commented – AAP cannot now blame “others” for stubble
burning & enhanced smog & pollution thereof in Delhi especially during
the winter months.
It will be interesting to see how
Bhagwant Mann – touted the next CM – without administrative experience
performs. Kejriwal, shifting to Punjab as CM, leaving his deputy Manish Sisodia
to take over Delhi could have been administratively a better bet, but AAP
decision must have been predicated on the logic that such an attempt in 2017 cost
them the state election – apart from the accusation of sleeping with the
secessionists - & taking cognisance of the fact that Punjab never had a non
Sikh CM in its entire history. Kejriwal shall, however, remain a super CM –
with a potential for tussle with Mann – a former stand-up comic accused of suffering
from a serious alcoholic problem by the opposition.
Congress’ attempts at self
destruction were on full display in Punjab; instead of contesting elections
under Capt. Amrinder Singh - despite some MLA’s opposing him as his nationalistic
credentials & anti farm laws stance strengthened the party - &
replacing him after the elections, INC humiliated Singh leading to his tie up
with the BJP; placing a Dalit leader Channi as CM, invited Navjot Sidhu’s ire
leading to a self-goal of chaos which helped the AAP secure a stupendous
victory.
(3)BJP winning Manipur was
predicted as any North Eastern states – dependent on central aid - have
generally sided with the party in power at the centre. BJP secured 32 seats in
a 60 member house & it is likely continuance of incumbent CM – Biren singh
assures of stability in a sensitive border state.
Once dominant parties like the
National People’s party & The Naga People’s front become junior partners.
(4)The Congress had a chance to
win in Uttarakhand & Goa – especially the former which has witnessed a
regime change every 5 years. The BJP govt. with 3 CMs over the last 5 years,
suffered question marks on governance but still won with 47 seats (vote share 44.3%)
against 19 (37.9%)of the congress; the low vote share difference between the
parties indicates that INC would have won the elections if only there was lesser
infighting & Harish Rawat was given a greater say & tasked to stay in his home state rather than fire fight in Punjab. While the BJP’s
incumbent CM Pushkar Dhami lost the election – a signal the party would not
have missed - the well-oiled party election machinery helped it win
convincingly.
The Congress won 17 seats against
BJP’s 13 in Goa, last time, in 2017 but was beaten by the BJP in cobbling
together a majority in the 40 member house. With the count at 20 now (33.31%
vote share) against Congress’s 11 seats (Vote share 23.46%), the BJP is poised to form the govt. –
3rd time in succession. AAP opened its account with 2 seats (6.77%
vote share) while Mamata’s All India Trinamool Congress (AITC ) - wrecking the
Congress’ chances by poaching its MLAs & securing 5.21% of the vote without
securing any seats. Revolutionary Goans Party which secured the 3rd highest vote share, but 1 seat only, is the party to watch out for; it is modelled on Balasaheb Thackery's Shiv Sena & their fight for the rights of locals against migrants.
The Takeaways:
(a)The victory of regional
parties AITC in Bengal or DMK in TN, in the 2021 state elections indicates the
effectiveness of sub nationalism (aka Regionalism) & regional identity as an effective weapon
in taking on BJP’s nationalism. SP & RLD still standing, & giving a tough
fight to the BJP despite eventual loss, in UP & Bihar respectively,
indicates the continuing strength of the MY (Muslim - Yadav) combination in the
cow belt. Muslims could desert the JD (U) & BSP in Bihar & UP &
their consolidation behind a party – RJD & SP respectively – would lead to
counter polarization behind another – mostly helping the BJP.
(b)Despite electorate angst, the
obituary of “dynasty politics” is vastly exaggerated as most of the parties
suffer from the malaise; the only difference is whether it is a case of 2nd
generation or 5th generation dynast. C Voter’s Yashwant Deshmukh,
rightly, avers that Non dynastic parties like the Asom Gana Parishad, in Assam,
or the BSP, in UP, are fading & a similar fate awaits JD(U) in Bihar after
the death of its leader Nitish Kumar while dynastic ones like YSRCP, TRS, SS,
DMK etc. are growing.
(c)Deshmukh adds that Political
pundits are quick to arrive at erroneous conclusions describing BJP’s loss to
regional satraps Mamata Banerjee in Bengal & Stalin in TN, in 2021, as a sign of
“Vulnerability” & swing towards describing the current win, in 2022, as a sign of its
“invincibility”. The truth is that the PM continues to tower over his rivals in
terms of his popularity – which even his detractors concede.
(d)The electorate gives a boost
to the BJP in the national elections even if they display nuance while voting
for regional parties like the BJD in Odisha, in state elections.
(e)Apparatchiks believed that Priyanka
Gandhi is the Congress party’s brahmastra ; all she could do was secure a 2.33%
vote share in UP – much lower than earlier elections. The truth is that the congress has been on a terminal decline, in UP
after losing the state elections in 1989, while Rajiv Gandhi was still alive, while the family’s spin doctors hconveniently dumped the blame on PV Narsimha
Rao & his ill handling of the Babri Masjid demolition, in 1992. While her political acumen was always overrated, one can’t blame her
for lacking in hard work, in UP, attempting to win over women voters by
offering them 40% of the seats. But with very little of the organization left
with leaders like Jitin Prasada, RPN Singh etc. joining the BJP, like Rita
Bahuguna Joshi earlier, she could have done little.
(f)The obituary of the Congress
is premature as it won 20% of the popular vote during the last 2 parliamentary
elections. However, the insipid leadership of the Gandhi clan & the mockery
of one Gandhi “acting” as Party chief while another is the de facto chief - despite publicly claiming his disinterest in the role - is disconcerting. Shunning
paranoia & announcing organization elections to allow local leadership,
with a mass base, to emerge, to take on the BJP on the streets, rather than
encouraging factionism, to protect self, would be the right road to resurrection
& redemption.
Conclusion:
The less than agreeable
performance of the BJP governments reflected in changing of CMs in Uttarakhand
or the covid mismanagement in UP - with bodies floating in the Ganga - could have
been better exploited by the opposition. The BJP’s well-oiled election machinery
– including its last mile connectivity via booth incharges & panna pramukhs
- & the narrative of vaccine self-sufficiency along with the success of the
“operation Ganga” – of evacuating Indians from strife torn Ukraine – though seems
to have trumped.
The obituary of the congress is a
hyperbole but the ineffectiveness of its leadership in drumming up the right
narrative or keeping its flock together is definitely indicative of a malaise
which has now come to bite; a slow corrosion is inevitable.
Regional leaders like Arvind Kejriwal
with a reputation for governance would continue to win the state elections
& slowly take over the space vacated by the Congress. That the centre is
proposing the merger of the 3 Delhi Municipal corporations – currently held by
the BJP - is indicative of fear of an impending electoral loss. AAP was now secured a thumping victory in
Punjab (92 of 117 seats), opened its mark in Goa (2 of the 40 seats) &
secured a 3.5 % vote share in Uttarakhand indicating the weakening of the
Congress, a situation ripe for exploitation for savvy regional leaders. Earlier it has won 27 of the 120 seats in the
Surat Municipal elections with 28.58% vote largely with the support of Patidars
- the traditional core base of the BJP indicating that they are cutting both
ways.
The BJP is vulnerable & not
invincible but the work ethic of the PM which has percolated down the ranks &
file & its well-oiled election machinery & last mile connect – booth
incharges & Panna Pramukhs - makes it a winner. The BJP is reported to have
studied the Communists cadre building designs in detail & launched its own successful
version; to be a winner other parties should study the BJP’s model & create
own - with an alternative narrative as a differentiator as the electorate might not
like a “me too”. Till such time the BJP’s juggernaut shall chug along.
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