The Strange Emotions Behind The Unveiling Indo-Pak Skirmish

A contrarian view: Are we Indians "Emotional Fools?

When the Pulwama attack happened, the right wing was baying for blood while the Left & Liberals - quite rightly - were asking the govt. to think through the "escalation matrix" before reacting & inconceivably got branded as "anti-nationals" in the bargain.

After Wing Commander, Abhinandan, became a Prisoner of War the right wing - rightly - opined that such collateral damage is inevitable during war or war like situations while the Left & the Liberals are running the hashtag #BringBackAbhinandan campaign and lambasting the right wing for lacking respect for peace & human life. A paradox indeed!! 

When IC 814 was Hijacked and taken to Kandahar, in 1999, it was public pressure that forced the government to capitulate and release terrorists - including Masood Azhar - who went on to become our nemesis later. 

Deterrence is effective if it is seen as credible by the enemy & that demands the willingness to bear costs; extreme emotions of jingoism on hearing news of F-16 downed by a vintage Mig 21 Bison & chestfallen when the Abhinandan was captured fray at such strategic calculus. Prudent, therefore, that the entire spectrum of Indian public opinion should shun emotions & learn to think rationally regarding the protection of Indian strategic interests.

Pakistan, clearly, views India as an "existential threat" since the conventional weapons superiority of India to Pakistan is 2:1 & hence uses nuclear sabre rattling & low cost "non- state actors" - euphemistically called terrorists - to break the country "through a thousand cuts" by supporting terror in Kashmir, Punjab, North East, the Naxal corridor or by taking advantage of any other fault lines in India. Therefore, the need to discipline Pakistan should not be in any doubt; our actions against them should be consistent and not necessarily linked to election cycles alone.  This is an absolute necessity especially when India has “Great Power” ambitions & aspires a place at the high table.

Pakistan cannot be taken lightly though; after all, it is the same country which hoodwinked the United States, in Afghanistan, for 18 long years between 2001 till date. India should shun jingoism and quietly build up its capacity - like in 1971- before executing a well thought through course of action aimed at a complete victory & achievement of its strategic objectives. History, offers us another bitter lesson; in 1962, it was not China that attacked India - as our history books less than accurately claim - but our humiliating defeat was a consequence of India running the "forward post" policy - without building its military capacity. Logically, we should not repeat the same mistake again.  

Vice Chief of Army, General Sarath Chand told a Parliamentary Standing committee, that 68% of army equipment is "vintage", 24% "current" & only 8% "state of art" implying an urgent need for modernization. The CAG report, presented to Parliament, in June 2018, noted that of the 152 types of ammunition, used by armed forces, 121(80%) were below WWR (War Wastage Reserve) requirement to fight a 40 day intense war, 55% below MARL(Minimum acceptable Risk Level) requirement to fight a 20 day war & 40% below 10 days- a "critical level"; in other words India is in no position to fight even a short war of 10-15 days & this hopeless situation has remained the same during both the UPA & the NDA years. Hence the need for  the twitter warriors & prime time TV war mongers to shun rhetoric & bravado & run a reasoned debate to force governments to act on building capacity.

Indian strategy, therefore, should be built on three bedrocks: in the short run, as Deng Xiaoping, of China, once said "hide your strength; bide your time"; in the medium term, as the former US President, Theodore Roosevelt wrote "Speak softly but carry a long stick"; & in the long run the immortal tenet of Sun Tzu should prevail: The supreme art of war is to win without fighting!!