Modi – Trump Meet: The Takeaways

Prime Minister, Modi’s  5^th sojourn to the US since 2014, was a “getting to know ” President Trump visit; that it passed off without any hiccups is a credit to foreign Secy. Jaishankar who was there much earlier to plan smooth optics. The Indian side was perhaps working on three strategies: entice “Businessman” Trump with defence deals & reaffirm India’s commitment to help him achieve his election pledge of “job creation”- about $6 billion dollars’ worth of arms deals were concluded during the visit; don’t irritate him by raising the H1B visa issue; & get into Trump’s inner circle by inviting a family member to visit India – in this case Trump’s daughter Ivanka for the entrepreneurial summit this fall which was readily accepted. Though achievements were few, that nothing went wrong gave the diplomatic corps some relief who, therefore, touted the visit a success.

The otherwise flamboyant Modi made other concessions in a bid not to irritate the unpredictable Mr Trump: gala rock star concerts of the Madison Square kind were replaced by quieter close door meets with the Indian diaspora & industry; no reiteration of the Paris accord or repudiation of Trump’s castigation of India receiving “billions of dollars” in lieu of being a signatory to the same accord. Modi was advised rightly to steer clear of these otherwise prickly issues & he followed the script. At India’s instance, no questions were invited by both the leaders during the Press meet to avoid controversies.

Trump however was not quite as generous: a committed germophobe he was visibly uncomfortable with Modi’s bear hugs vis a vis his proactive hug to the Japanese PM Abe a few months earlier; he insisted on the trade deficit being brought down & spoke about his efforts to negotiate a higher price for gas supplies to India deviating from the prepared text.  While Shinzo Abe of Japan, Angela Merkel of Germany & Xi Jinping of China were hosted in Trump’s private resort Mar-a Logo, Modi had to be content with a meeting at the White house – a subtle allusion to the priorities accorded. Indian interlocutors were happy at Trump’s pompous concession that “PM Modi & I are world leaders in social media” & fervently hoped that Trump’s pride would not be hurt since he has 32.9 million followers on his personal Twitter account, compared to Modi's 31 million.

Indian gains were few: designation of  Syed Salahuddin of the Hizb-ul-Mujahidin as a “Specially Designated Global terrorist” – negating in the bargain the nuanced difference between home grown liberation fighters & Pak based terrorists;  & a generic support for the Indian stand on CPEC(China Pak Economic Corridor). China’s ingression into the Doka La plateau in the China-Bhutan-India tri-junction & the subsequent sabre rattling is perhaps a consequence to the CPEC allusion in the joint statement.  The rest of the joint declaration covering issues like Afghanistan, terrorism, intelligence sharing and defence co-operation were a reiteration of existing positions.

Trump’s “America First” policy runs counter to Modi’s “Make in India” & perhaps that is the reason the transfer of the F16 assembly line to India was absent from the joint statement. Trump’s “Buy American, Hire American” signed in April overhauled the H1B visa system negatively impacting India which was a large beneficiary of the policy. Trump is a consummate “deal maker” who used the Taiwan issue to seek concessions from China on trade but is now uncomfortable that China has not been able to rein in North Korea; transactional in his vision & bound by his electoral pledges he can never be counted on staunch support. His views on India changed quickly from his campaign promise to give India "a true friend in the White House" to what The Washington Post described as Trump’s way of using “job creation and the Paris climate accords to cast India as an unscrupulous negotiator and a threat to American workers”.  It is, therefore, in India’s interest to be on guard & tread with care.