Indian Foreign Policy: At the Cross Roads

China has responded to the Indian dare of allowing the Dalai Lama to Tawang by rechristening 6 towns – on April 14^th - in Arunachal Pradesh, perhaps, to de-legitimise the Indian claims on the same region – a policy they have followed earlier in the East & South China Sea.  Meanwhile in the summit meeting between President Trump & Xi, the latter surprisingly acquiesced with the US concerns on the whopping trade deficit of $350 billion by alluded to work on the same as part of a strategy to reduce inflation in their own country– a first during their bilateral talks till date; clearly, Trump appears to have stirred the Taiwan pot & challenged the “one China” policy for a brief interlude, only as a negotiating-bait & appears to be succeeding. The contrasting treatments meted out to India & China is an eye opener; while China has cleverly avoided being branded as a “currency manipulator” – a Trump election promise - India is at the receiving end of H1B visa curbs, likely pressures on IPR (Intellectual Property Rights) especially on pharma as well as Custom duties – 100% duty on Harley Davidson bikes being specially mentioned.  

The installation of the THAAD missile system in South Korea & deployment of a nuclear submarine to protect its ally against the North indicates that the US is unlikely to dump its allies & carve out geographies with China under a G2 format; however, demands for greater contributions – from NATO as well as countries like Japan, Korea etc. - for providing a security architecture would definitely follow; the “pivot to Asia” strategy might not have been dumped but relations with India would become more transactional or quid pro quo; India, therefore, needs to hedge its bets & perhaps the next stop of Arun Jaitley to Moscow (Apr 25-27^th) from Washington (Apr 21-23^rd) along with the PMs visit to Israel, in July, is part of the overall strategy of protecting her interests without leaning too much on any one international power. However the Russia- China - Pak axis might put pay to such plans. US-Russia working together would have provided us much more strategic space; the impending relationship appears to be at the crossroads, though, post the US Tomahawk missile attack on a Syrian airbase followed by additional sanctions as a reaction to a purported chemical attack on civilians.

While some elements of our nationalistic belligerent media would like us to believe that we are squelching Pak in the International forums & thumping her into a pariah status, the truth is that Pak has moved closer into a Chinese embrace & is gaining from the $46 billion CPEC(China Pak Economic corridor) lifeline; Russia too - a cold war enemy - has opened up to Pak as a counter to an Indian tilt towards the US & has conducted joint military exercises & is planning arms sales; clearly a Russia-Pak-China axis is emerging, burnished by an increased desire to squeeze India out of Afghanistan.  If the CPEC joins the OBOR, Pak would be the strategic partner for all land locked central Asian republics – burnished further by the Muslim brotherhood logic- & serve as a gateway to the Arabian Sea enhancing their geo-political status further. The solution is to rake up the demand on POK & Gilgit – Baltistan through which the CPEC passes; the consequence of such action is no talks with Pak & therefore a volatile valley; additionally, India needs to instigate the Balooch rebels & prevent the completion of the Gwadar port. Perhaps, India is working on both these strategies; the PM, unprecedentedly, has spoken from the ramparts of the Red fort on the Baloch issue while Kulbhushan Yadav too was purportedly arrested from Baloochistan.

Pak’s economy is 1/8^th the Indian one while India is 1/5^th the Chinese behemoth & it is reasonable to assume that the military spends are a function of economic strengths; spends however are no reflection of the numerical strengths; Indian military (13 lakhs) is about 50% China’s (23lakhs)just as  the Pak army (6.2Lakhs)is only 50% India’s; all the 3 players are nuclear powers & can wreck the other if faced with imminent annihilation; thus it is unlikely that China would replay 1962 despite India pulling out the  “Tibet card” to express irritation to the Chinese opposition to Indian membership of the NSG or preventing  Masood Azhar from being branded by the UN as international terrorist. However, since pestilence on two fronts – Western & northern – if not a war is a highly likely outcome a rapid roll out of Bharat Mala – the infra to match the Chinese on their side of the border should be accelerated.  Land & rail connectivity vide Bangladesh & activating more of the dormant air strips in the North east is an urgent need. A more broader engagement with the North eastern insurgents to maintain peace is critical.

For details see.http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2015/05/geopolitics-of-infrastructure-indias.html

India’s “neighbourhood first” policy seems to be in doldrums since relations with Nepal & Sri Lanka are deteriorating while those with Maldives shows no improvement. In the 1990’s India made a bid to cosy up with Iran & hence the Shia block with some success & Iran reciprocated by supporting the Indian stand in the OIC on Kashmir; attempts now to reach out to Saudi Arabia & UAE – the Sunni block – has led to the Shia side being miffed; no support on the Kulbhushan Yadav issue buttresses the assessment.  Since about 7 million Indians work in the Gulf – largely in Saudi (2.8Million) & UAE (2 million), Kuwait (0.75Million), Oman (0.7Million), Qatar (0.6 Million)  - & contributed about 60% of the 62 billion overall remittances last year, a GCC tilt is understandable; however this would mean that Iran too - which has a strategic depth in Afghanistan - would work towards evicting us from the region. Pursuing the Chabahar port development & spends on creating infra to link Afghanistan & Central Asia vide this port is therefore strategically illogical & hence should be dumped.

Ideally, a democratic India should have been logically a partner to western democracies post-independence; however, since Pak was the UK creation & because of the then Indian leadership’s own enchantment with socialism we moved closer to the USSR – a relationship that served us very well though. Brexit would ensure that even countries like UK support India more lured by a trade deal; however, the rise of right wing leaders in Europe, in the impending elections, is likely to unravel the EU & Indian diplomacy should rise up to the challenge.

With Europe on the boil, Africa & Latin America should be the continents that Indian diplomacy needs to concentrate hard on. The Chinese have made deep inroads here already & our resources do not permit a headlong attack; use of soft power – like the US - would be a better alternative. The US attracted the best students from across the world to its Universities & the goodwill thus generated helped when they returned to their home countries & rose to important positions in the local govt. India needs to pursue a similar path but if criminal attacks on African students continue & we refuse to acknowledge them as “racial attacks’ the African project would unravel leading to an insurmountable damage; the PM should persuasively speak about this issue at length in his “Man ki Baath” & follow it up with ground level strategy.  Tapping the NRI base in those countries should be the other strategy.

The international situation is fluid & calls for a long term strategic direction & tactical intervention which calls for a larger diplomatic corps which is work in progress; with Trump cocking a snook at the UN, we are likely to see the revival of bilateralism & a weakening of international institutions; in such a scenario a foreign secy. on a one year extension & a Foreign Minister who is not in the pink of health post the kidney transplant would not help.

In the light of an unpredictable US, a South Korea-Japan-Vietnam-Australia-India axis during the next 20 years would serve India well; beyond such a period we need to plan to stand on our own feet rather than lean on others. Rather others should be encouraged to lean on us.