Year 2017: The Predictions

The assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey, Andrei Karlov, on Dec 19^th, by an off-duty Turkish police officer, Altintas, in Ankara, after proclaiming “Allahu Akbar” & “Don’t forget Aleppo” - a reference to the Syrian cataclysm - is perhaps an indicator of more violent things to come.  Paradoxically, on the same day, Russian President, Putin, had to cancel his schedule to see the play Woe from Wit - written by the poet and diplomat Alexander Griboyedov, murdered by a mob when he was ambassador to Tehran, in 1829 - to attend to the event. One only fervently hopes that this event would not do to Europe today what the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand did in 1914. World War I happened then, leading to about 17 million dead. The other predictions for 2017

Russo-US Entente

Strategic experts aver that covert support to the ISIS by the US to unseat the Bashar- Al Assad regime, in Syria, is the genesis of the Syrian crisis. Eliminating both the ISIS & the Syrian regime is an unrealistic aim for one can’t run with the hare & hunt with the hounds simultaneously. With accusations flying thick & fast regarding Russian hackers help in a Trump win, in the elections, it would be reasonable to expect the Trump regime to work on a Russo-US entente to refashion the West Asian conflict. The nomination of ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson - a known friend of President Putin - as the next US Secretary of State alludes to such a possibility.  However complexities abound.

Shia-Sunni/ Abrahamic Religion Conflict

While the Russians are friendly with the Shia regimes of Iran & Syria, Trump intends to back-off from the Iran deal struck by Obama; this could placate Israel & the traditional US supporters – the Sunni Arab regimes including Saudi Arabia - who are annoyed with the Obama regime for opening up to Iran. Obama’s parting shot was to surreptitiously support by abstaining on a non-binding UN resolution that chastised Israel on pushing settlements in West Bank & East Jerusalem, thereby keeping the two nation – Israel & Palestine – theory alive, in West Asia, Trump has promised to reverse the same & is insistent that the US ambassador should be based in Jerusalem & not Tel Aviv, which would reopen the old wounds of “holy wars”. He has taken a position on the West Bank that is more right to the one peddled by the Israeli PM, Benjamin Natanyahu which has the potential of annoying the Gulf Co-operation Council(GCC) & the Islamic Umma & that could serve as the powder keg, the conflation of which could rekindle the Arab-Israel wars of 1967 or 1973. Expect the Middle East to be a heightened battle ground between religions & sects accentuating the chaos.

Caliphate would try to regain relevance

ISIS & Al-Qaeda are fighting for supremacy & the former is the current darling of the Jihadis. ISIS will initiate & if unable to execute will at least take credit for lone wolf attacks across the world particularly Europe & North America - the forces which it sees as arraigned against it.  A petulant Putin & an impetuous Trump are likely to plan muscular reactions which have the potential of reigniting the crusades which will have religious, social & economic consequences. Therefore expect a violent 2017. A world war 3 is not unlikely.

Weakening of the International Order

The rise of right wing nationalists with the promise of making their countries “Great Again” is unlikely to stop with Trump. Expect more to join the ranks of Abe in Japan, Putin in Russia & Xi in China. Prodded by masochism, they are likely to overturn the world trade, economic & social order based the narrow pursuit of nationalistic objectives. Expect a further weakening of the UN & WTO. More no. of regional trading blocs would emerge while some like the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) would disappear. Consensus on issues like climate change would weaken further.

Unravelling of the EU

Brexit is a consequence of voluble debaters playing on xenophobia & instilling in citizens fears regarding loss of jobs & terror threats. Right wing parties have gained in the European Parliament & are likely to storm to power in certain countries. The perceived German high handedness is dealing with the issues plaguing Europe could implode the European Union. Angela Merkel could lose the elections & not make it to a 4^th term in office.

South China Sea: The new area of conflict

Trump accepting, ostensibly, a congratulatory call from the Taiwanese President Tsai Ing Wen, predicts a fraught start to the US- China relationship since it challenges the “One China” policy which successive US regimes have respected since President Nixon’s historic rapprochement in 1972; the immediate consequence of that action is a US drone being captured by the Chinese in the high seas.  It is conceivable that Trump would attempt to fulfil his electoral promise of extracting trade concessions from the Chinese & the latter being patient & prolonged negotiators would wear him down. Attempts to arm-twist the Chinese would be responded through dumping of US debt that could effect the stability of the dollar plunging the world into an economic crisis. Alternatively, trying to hem them in the militarily would see tensions mounting especially in the South & East China Seas.

While Trump has already expressed his intentions of moving ahead with tightening the H1B visa regime which has the potential of impacting Indo-US relations, its ill effect could be softened through a closer Security & Defence partnership.  A closer US – India - Japan- Australia- South Korea- Vietnam axis to counter China is likely. Expect the South China Sea to be the focus of much duelling in 2017.

Conclusion

The world in 2017 will never be the same again. The fissures that have developed during the last few decades are waiting to be exploited & there is no shortage of interested parties.  In short expect social, economic & political upheavals across the world in 2017 & that is definitely not music to any ones ears.