Indo Pak Relations: The Sartaz Aziz Interview

Karan Thapar’s interview with Sartaz Aziz, the foreign affairs adviser to the Pak PM, Nawaz Sharief aired on India Today TV this week was insightful. It is reasonable to deduce the following takeaways from the interview

(1)Aziz revealed that Mazood Azhar – the Jaish e- Mohammed Chief & the Pathankot attack accused – was under detention.  When probed further he gave an evasive answer that it was as stated to him by the concerned agencies. 

Aziz was the NSA (National security adviser & Foreign affairs adviser until Oct 2015, when his wings were clipped at the Army Chief Raheel Sharief’s insistence & General Janjua was appointed in his place. Perhaps this was a way of punishing him for the Ufa Statement bungling where the K word went missing. The Pak Army clearly wants to have control over foreign affairs & would protect strategic non state assets like JeM - created & nurtured by the ISI. Therefore it is reasonable to assume that Aziz is not sure about Azhars status; his statement is a mere parroting of an official doctored line.

(2)The Indian Defence Minister, Manohar Parrikar, during his interview with Thapar about a week ago stated emphatically that the Pak team constituted to investigate the Pathankot  attacks would not be allowed entry into the same military premises come what may. Aziz however avers that the Indian side is open to a visit to the location. Clearly one of them is clueless.  If it is the Indian Defence Minister, it is definitely a cause for worry.

(3)Aziz insists that Pak has asked for additional evidence, in Sept 2015, for expediting the 26/11 Mumbai attack case against Lakhvi but there has been no response – despite reminders - from the Indian side till date. Is that the reason the Indian state has shown enormous alacrity in pardoning Headley in lieu of turning approver in the case?

(4)Even if the above were true, Headley’s disclosures to Indian Courts are not new - known as they were to US & Indian authorities long ago - & has no evidentiary value in a Pak court especially when Aziz is convinced that the statements of a “double agent” cannot be believed. He categorically asserts that Headley would not be called in by a Pak court to record his statements either.  He is equally evasive on trying Lakhvi under the Military courts of Pak - created under the 21^st constitutional amendment in Jan 2015 - which means that Lakhvi shall never get convicted.  The rants on national TV that Pak is not doing enough shall be our only consolation.

(5)From Aziz’s statements it is clear that Pak is keen to steer the discourse away from terrorism – which India is interested in solely - to a solution on Sir Creek, Siachen & to enhance Trade. With 10 Indian soldiers dying in Siachen in Jan 2016 & 124 Pak soldiers dying in 2012 & roughly 20000 soldiers from either side perishing in the lofty snowy heights in the last 3 decades, a solution on Siachen seems achievable, provided there is willingness on both sides. However Pak insistence on the 1984 status & not the current one – since India holds a location advantage - would torpedo talks.

(6)Aziz’s exasperation on the slow velocity of talks with India is discernable & he speaks passionately about the changing world order – especially on trade & the Middle East crisis.  He is particularly concerned about the launch of the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) which would have an enormous effect on world trade & which could affect both India & Pak negatively & therefore calls for strengthening of SAARC as a counter which is logical.

The interview gives a fair idea on the likely issues that Pak is interested in in its dealings with India & the negotiating position on that Pak is likely to adopt in the foreign Secretary level talks. Either way any dramatic end to the current logjam in Indo-Pak relations is unlikely especially when there is a trust deficit on both sides.