Why did Prime Minister Modi meet the Jammu & Kashmir Leaders?

The timing of the meeting between 14 Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) Leaders of 8 political parties & Prime Minister Modi, on 24^th June’21, for around 3 hours, was intriguing. That only “Mainstream” parties – who fought elections under the Indian constitution, but maintained their local relevance by demanding greater autonomy - were invited & included 4 former Chief Ministers & 4 deputy Chief Ministers, leads one to conclude that it was an attempt to restart an electoral process; keeping out the “separatist” Hurriyat Conference – formed in 1993, with its factions either supporting independence or merger with Pakistan - was not surprising, as the govt. had even cancelled talks with Pak, in 2014, on finding them engaging with this organization.  With “secession” out of question, Hurriyat becomes a pariah, but what are the objectives served by meeting the “Mainstream” parties still demanding autonomy via restitution of Article 370 & 35 A?

The BJP leadership must have been cognizant of the likelihood of criticism of such a rapprochement as a meek “walk back” especially when Home Minister, Amit Shah, in Nov’20, had panned the “Gupkar Gang” for acting “against our National interest” & in Feb’21 slammed the “3 families who have ruled in J&K for years”. Neither the BJP’s nationalistic support base nor the citizens of Kashmir – who did not protest significantly when these leaders were imprisoned, post the reading down of Article 370, on 5^th Aug 2019 – would be enthused either.

That raises the question: why did the govt. initiate such a move? Why now? Possible reasons follow:

(1)To Manage the after effects of US withdrawal from Afghanistan (Af)– The US force withdrawal, from Afghanistan, was initially planned to be completed by 11^th Sept – to coincide with the 20^th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks -  but is being accelerated -  a Vietnam redux. The proud Afghans have given a bloody nose to the British during the 3 Anglo-Afghan wars during the 18^th & 19^th centuries, the USSR during 1979-89 & the US  during 2001-20.

The Taliban, meanwhile, have captured a large swathe of Af, nudging out the state forces, rendering meaningless  their power sharing talks currently underway with the ruling govt. As per the UN Secretary General’s special envoy to Af,  Deborah Lyons “Most districts that have been taken surround provincial capitals, suggesting that the Taliban are positioning themselves to try & take these capitals, once foreign forces are completely withdraw”.  It is, therefore, likely that they would usurp power, nudging aside the Ashraf Ghani govt. – which India recognizes as the only legitimate stakeholder in the war ravaged country. The Indian institutional memory of IC 814 hijacking, in Dec 1999, to Kandahar, during the period Taliban ruled Af (1996-2001), & exchange of  terrorists that included Masood Azhar, still rankles & the possibility of battle hardened Taliban fighters being diverted to Kashmir is a challenge to Indian policy wonks. It appears, therefore, that the govt. is working on a 2 pronged approach.

(a)Open up negotiations with the Taliban: Qatar’s special envoy for counter terrorism & conflict resolution, Mustlaq bin Majed al-Qahtani alluded to the “quiet visit by Indian officials to speak to the Taliban”; was he referring to Foreign Minister S Jaishankar’s 2 transit visit to Doha, Qatar, on June 9^th & 15^th during his trips to Kuwait & Kenya?  Pakistan’s national Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf confirmed the same when he told Dawn News that India ‘having the Taliban killed daily & keep giving funds for operations against them & today they have reached there to have talks”.

It is likely that the talks did not go as planned, courtesy Pak’s pressure on the Taliban, since India denied the meeting while Yusuf derisively said “you should also ask what response they got from the Taliban”.  The most feared component of the Taliban – the Haqqani Network – is arraigned against India & it is likely that Pak could deploy its assets - Lashkar –e Tayabba (LeT) &  Jaish –e – Mohammed (JeM) against India  & that, perhaps, explains Indian diplomatic efforts to keep Pak in the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) “grey list” to check its covert ambitions.

Indian position in Af has weakened during the last few years; it has closed 2 of its 4 consulates in Af - Jalalabad & Herat in April 2020 – ostensibly due to covid & has no plans of opening them soon. The Jalalabad consulate was attacked in 2013 & 2016 & Pak has been pushing for its closure for quite some time. Having provided financial assistance of $1.5 billion – constructing their Parliament building, Salma dam, Electrical Transmission line to Kabul, Agriculture University at Kandahar, Zaranj-Delaram road, upgrading telephone exchanges, schools, Hospitals tube wells etc. – India might be keen to use the economic carrot to keep the Taliban at bay, a strategy that might work unless Pak’s iron brother China nudges India out, courtesy its economic heft.

(b)Humour the Kashmir Leaders: New Delhi appears to be moving on an alternate track as a back-up plan to the aforementioned strategy.  While the “separatist” Hurriyat leaders are still under house arrest, leaders of “mainstream” parties have been invited for the meeting to create a wedge between the two. The govt. has promised elections & statehood at an “appropriate time” post completion of the delimitation exercise.

The Delimitation commission was constituted in Mar 2020, under Justice Ranjana Desai but the Kashmiri leaders boycotted it with the argument that attendance shall render infructuous their currently subjudice demand for restoration of Article 370 & 35 A. The centre appears keen though  to use statehood as a leverage to force acceptance of Article 370 abrogation, as evident from  Modi’s 24^th June Tweet: “ Delimitation has to happen at a quick pace so that polls can happen & J&K gets an elected govt.” If some of the leaders express support for the delimitation exercise – with a view to seek  power or under coercion – it could create fissures in the “People alliance for Gupkar Declaration“ (PAGD) an umbrella organization that houses the National Conference (NC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP), People’s Conference (PC) Awami national Conference (ANC), CPI(M), J&K People’s Movement.

Post Modi’s meeting, the Delimitation commission, announced its visit to the Union Territory (UT), from July 6-9^th in what appears to be clearly a coordinated action plan. Minister of State, Home Affairs, Kishen Reddy met former MPs & civil society members from Kargil & Ladakh, later completing the cycle of engagement with other relevant stakeholders.

(2)Signal to Indian Critics abroad a resumption of a democratic process in J&K – The Acting US Assistant secretary of State for South & Central Asia, Dean Thomson, in a Congressional hearing, in June, remarked “Kashmir is one area where we have urged them (India) to return to normalcy as quickly as possible, including we have seen some steps taken: the release of prisoners, the restoration of 4G access. There are other electoral steps we would like them to take & that we have encouraged them to do & will continue to do so”

Parsing the statement leads one to conclude US pressure having forced the Indian hand. The US has helped India face a belligerent China across the northern border with diplomatic, Intelligence & surveillance information & India is thus constrained to respond favourably to nudges elsewhere.  

The drone attacks in Jammu, on June 27^th would give the govt. a reason to delay the process though.

The Politics of Delimitation:

As per the 1995 delimitation exercise, Kashmir has 111 assembly seats (Kashmir – 46, Jammu – 37 & Ladakh – 4 & Pakistan occupied Kashmir 24). Since Ladakh is now a separate Union Territory (UT),  J&K is left with 107 seats, which has been increased to 114 seats, as per the J&K reorganization Act, 2019, that has incidentally abolished the upper house – the legislative council.

There is a need to correct some historical wrongs in J&K. 7 seats in Jammu were reserved for the Scheduled castes (SCs) but Scheduled Tribes (STs) are yet to receive the benefit. The 1991 census was not conducted in J&K because of militancy & therefore the delimitation was based on the 1981 census. A decade later, census exercise was conducted in J&K, along with the rest of India; but while delimitation was conducted in the rest of India, during 2002-08, as per the 2001 census, J&K did not follow suit. Since the Central govt. passed a law in 2001 freezing the Lok-Sabha seats till 2026, the J&K state govt., in 2002, under the state constitution, froze delimitation of the state assembly constituencies till 2026. These shall be corrected under the new delimitation exercise.

The Ranjana Kumar led Delimitation commission when set up in Mar 2020, had a remit to redraw electoral constituencies of Assam, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh  & Manipur too apart from J&K but has been granted a 1 year extension for J&K alone indicating that elections, in J&K, are unlikely anytime soon. The recent Assam elections were conducted without delimitation & the Kashmir leaders have legitimately demanded on why the same logic cannot apply to their state.

The new state assembly shall have 114 seats with a likely higher representation to Jammu. As per the 2011 census Hindus account for 28% & Muslims 68% of the 1.25 crore population of J&K but with  Hindus a majority only in 4 of the 20 districts. Thus without demographic changes, gerrymandering, weightage to area & development indices rather than population alone, the BJP’s aim of having a Hindu Chief Minister, in the only Indian Muslim dominated state, is unlikely to happen. As a first step, the domicile rules were changed in Mar 2020 to facilitate granting rights to Hindus refugees from Pak – denied by the precious the govt.

There have been demands to grant land to retired armed force personnel to settle in the borders – to enforce demographic change & serve national security – but no central govt. has pushed the case, fearing creation of local angst & International pressure; the BJP’s support base in Jammu too has been demanding restriction of ownership on land & jobs to local residents only. Ladakh too has been demanding protection under the 6^th Schedule of the constitution that grants tribals’ autonomy. While there has been a precedence of forced demographic changes implemented in neighbouring POK & in China’s Xinjiang provinces, implementing the same in a democracy is a challenge. The govt. in negotiation with mainstream parties means that demographic changes shall be a slow burn.

The Inevitability of dialogue

The govt. facing covid & economy management challenges has a delicate job of explaining to its base the reasons for engaging with the J&K leaders, lambasted for being “anti-national” not very long ago. Apni party, largely viewed as centre backed, has not done very well in District Development Council polls, held in Dec 2020 unlike the PAGD alliance. The initial promise of the party, the J&K People’s Movement, launched by the 2009 IAS topper, Shah Faesal, has fizzled out with the founder asking, in 2020, to be relieved of organizational responsibilities. While the BJP did well in Jammu the “Gupkar alliance” held sway in Kashmir. Terror holding agency in the valley & elected representatives being killed apart from International pressure to restart electoral process in the vale might have forced the govt. hand on negotiation.

There appears to be a realization in the J&K political parties too that they have no option but to come to the dialogue table. Omar Abdullah, in an India Today interview, conceded that “It is pointless to ask this govt. to restore Article 370 ….. as they are the architects of taking it away. The fight for restoration of Article 370 & to win back, what was snatched from us, on 5^th Aug 2019, shall take place in the Supreme Court”. People Conference Chief Sajjad Lone lamented that the so called Liberal parties in India “could not convince their countrymen when the Aug 5^th changes took place. We should take whatever this govt. gives us” & “when there is a liberal govt. let us see what they do for us….. if they come to power in 2024, 2029 or 2034”. That he mentioned dates extending up to 2034 indicates that the Kashmiri leaders are not sure if the BJP shall lose elections in 2024. He also believes that “Kashmiris have shunned dialogue in the past & paid heavily”& sitting back & not engaging with the centre would put the state populace at the mercy of bureaucrats.  

P Chidambaram, in an interview, few years back, suggested a compact that grants Kashmir autonomy that harks back to the pre 1953 status, in line with the Dilip Padgaonkar committee recommendations of Oct 2011; it is unlikely that the Congress could ever support such a position fearful of losing whatever is left of its already diminished presence in the Lok Sabha.  Any party, with an agenda on reinstatement of Article 370, would be committing political hara-kiri as public sentiment across the country is against the same. Perhaps that is what Sajjad Lone meant when he said that the “two extremes of liberalism & illiberalism in Indian politics, are unfortunately coinciding”.

Conclusion:

The Modi -J&K leaders meet is in response to the Geopolitical changes of US force withdrawal from Afghanistan & the likely Taliban ascent to power & the likelihood of the Pakistan-Taliban combine to disturb the fragile peace in the Kashmir valley. The BJP govt., perhaps, took this initiative as its reach out to the Taliban did not yield the expected dividends, with Pak playing spoilsport. The less than good performance of the Apni Party, in the recently concluded District Development Council elections & IAS topper Shah Faesal relinquishing organizational responsibility, in 2020, of the newly formed J&K People Movement – meant to inject fresh blood into the vale’s politics – could have forced a rapprochement with the “Gupkar Gang”

While Joe Biden, of the Democratic Party, in power in the US,  has nudged the Indian govt. on initiating democratic process, in J&K, it is unlikely that they would do more to antagonize its Quad ally India, firm as they are in setting their sights on China, challenging a unipolar world order.

Against this background it is prudent to interpret the current move by the govt., as nothing more than mere optics to manage international pressure, couched under catchy slogans of reducing “Dilli ki doori” & “Dil ki doori”. The Delimitation commission tenure has been extended by a year which means that elections are at least a year away; meanwhile the govt. can accelerate development programs in the valley in a bid to gain more support among the populace.