Year 2017: 10 Events that shall either Shake or Shape the World

Listing 10 events of 2017 that shall have a long term impact on World affairs

Trump Rise & the Beginning of the end of the uni-polar world: Donald Trump took oath of office as the 45^th POTUS, on 20^th Jan 2017, & by appointing his son-in law, Jared Kushner, as his senior advisor, two days later & daughter Ivanka, as advisor, on Mar 29^th, indicated where his heart lay & by visiting Riyadh in May & East Asia in Nov, his priorities.  The poetic campaign rhetoric extended seamlessly into twitter governance later, accelerating US isolation; his contentious phone call to ally, Australian PM, Malcolm Turnbull on refugees being the first of a series of glorious misfires.

US withdrew from the Paris Climate change agreement, UNESCO & Global compact on migration & has threatened the UN to cut funding. He believes that climate change is helpful for the US despite the US National Intelligence Council 2008 report marking Canada & Russia as the real winners. “Withdrawal” from the Iran & Cuba deals closed the wonderful opening - of greater market access & diplomatic leverage - provided by his predecessor Obama. Attempt to renegotiate NAFTA (North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement) & building the wall across the Mexican border has created uneasy neighbours & withdrawal from the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership), uneasy allies.  

Closer home, he has upended many of the social & racial relation advancements achieved over the last few decades; his assertion that "both" sides were to blame post the Charlottesville incident, overturning Obama care & the Obama directive on transgender rights to use toilets & banning transgendered people from military are some of those regressive moves. This will lead to an internally divided America, at war with itself, & a country in internal turmoil cannot provide world leadership.

Many of his nominees could not secure Senate confirmations & those who did have emerged as poor choices; open positions in his admin abound & those in office are experiencing short tenures, impeding long long term policy planning; the administration is thus tactical, firefighting one crisis & then another.

Meanwhile, the legal noose on Russian interference in the US Presidential elections - where Trump won in the electoral college, but lost by over 3 million votes - is tightening. Sanctions on Russia were hence mandated by the US Congress & the consequent reprisal by the latter of ordaining reduced US diplomatic presence makes a US – Russia détente unlikely; had it happened, the rise of China could have been more effectively challenged. 

Trump's impetuosity & lack of diplomatic acumen  were on display while handling the North Korean Missile & nuclear crisis. His announcement on US embassy shift to Jerusalem - a campaign promise that shall provide him with evangelical & Jewish support - however, has the potential to pitch the entire Middle East into turmoil. By the time he saves himself from impeachment & completes a term in office, moving from one deal to another, losing sight of long term strategic imperatives, he would have done much damage, announcing the beginning of the end of the US dominance of world affairs to worthy challengers - China & Russia.

President Xi gets second term & like Mao could rule in perpetuity: President,Xi Jinping, secured his 2^nd 5 year term, in Oct 2017, & had his name & ideology - "socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era" added to the constitution giving it a stature equivalent to “Mao Zedong Thought” & “Deng Xiaoping theory”. Chinese leaders post Deng – Jiang Zemin & Hu Jintao - governed for a decade & passed on the reins to their successors while Xi appears to have no such plans. CPC (Chinese Communist Party) standing committee has an informal retirement age of 68 & generally in the 2^nd term of the President, successors – aged around 50 - are identified to ensure 5 years of grooming & subsequently 10 year tenures. By packing the 7 member Politburo with people aged above 60, Xi has revealed his intentions.  He would rule in perpetuity- most likely in the saddle like Mao or like Deng hold key positions till death - pushing his pet BRI (Belt & Road Initiative) which is another name for colonization under the guise of infra development.

China first gained dominance in the East China Sea – checkmating Japan - & followed it by converting reefs into artificial islands in the South China Sea – checkmating the ASEAN countries; CPEC (China Pak Economic corridor) is an effort to gain entry into the Indian Ocean – nullifying the Malacca Straits choke point; their “string of pearls"  – Pak, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & Myanmar - are an India encirclement strategy to which they are now keen to add Nepal & Maldives.  With dominance in Asia complete, China has turned its attention to Africa – by launching its military base at Djibouti; incidentally, China is Africa’s largest trading partner.

China might not immediately match the 16 US military bases abroad, but Xi, like his friend Putin, will surely challenge the uni-polar world order.

Russia’s ISIS Victory – Putin revives Cold war ambitions: President Putin has won the war against ISIS in Syria & has negotiated with a beleaguered Bashar – al – Assad regime a 49 year lease of the port of Tartus, in the Mediterranean Sea, in a bid to revive a cold war naval base to checkmate Israel & NATO forces. Expect nuclear submarines & nuclear powered aircraft carriers on the prowl here soon since Russia is granted air & naval defence rights while Syrian forces handle land defence.

Russia could reopen the Soviet era military bases in Vietnam & Cuba & is interested in gaining  leeway across Nicaragua & Venezuela to challenge the US from close quarters. By bailing out Venezuela, suffering from an economic crisis – post the oil price drop, lack of peace & stagflation thereof – Putin has made a beginning.

By bringing Turkey & Iran together, at Sochi, in Nov, to solve the Syrian crisis, he has displayed ambition; post Saudi Arabia's (SA) King Salman’s visit to Russia a few months earlier, SA too seems to be open towards a wider Russian role in conflict resolution.  Russia though is constrained by its economic woes to aid the post war reconstruction efforts in Syria.

With such geo-political achievements under his belt, Putin has announced his candidature for the 2018 Presidential elections sending a signal, that like Xi, he too plans to rule in perpetuity.

Presidents fall from grace: While some heads of govt. are scaling new heights, others were dumped unceremoniously. The list includes Robert Mugabe- President of Zimbabwe for 37 years – suffering a coup launched by Army Chief Chiwenga & forced to cede power to Mnangagwa who was ousted as VP & expelled from the party earlier, by Mugabe, perhaps, to make his wife Grace his successor; Grace is likened to Mao’s wife Jiang & her supporters remind one of the “Gang of four” saga in China.

In South Africa, President Jacob Zuma's association with the Guptas’ & corruption thereof has smeared controversy on his rather colourful reputation & his legal troubles accentuated by an adverse court verdict; he has supported ex - wife Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma for Party (ANC) leadership & could face Mugabe’s fate. When Presidents act like monarchs in apparently democratic frameworks, & prop up families too, guillotine could be round the corner.

South Korea’s first female President, Park Geun hye,  was impeached in March on bribery charges, Brazilian prosecutors filed corruption charges against President Michel Temer - who took power in 2016 after his predecessor Dilma Rousseff was impeached - while the Pak courts found  Nawaz Sharif – facing flak due to the Panama papers scam – guilty & forced him out of office in July.

Ignominy thus followed many heads of govt.; they should learn to quit office such that people ask “why” & not “why not?”

Abe Returns; Japanese pacifist Constitution could be rewritten: Shinzo Abe is another personality striding like a colossus on the world stage winning a two third majority for his party LDF; he could thus potentially get a 3^rd 3 year term as leader of his party to lead the govt. as PM for Japan – an unprecedented feat. He shall pursue “Abenomics” – continued fiscal stimulus - & try to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution or add a clause in the constitution recognizing the legality of Japanese armed forces either of which shall help in tackling a belligerent China.

China is the world’s 2nd largest economy – poised to overtake the leader, the US, in 2032 - & is followed by Japan at no. 3; India shall cross France & Britain to take the no. 5 position in 2018 cementing the dictum that the 21^st century shall see the epicentre of the world shift decisively to Asia.  Xi would like the epicentre to be in the Middle Kingdom while others would like to create a multi – polar world order. The rise of the Quad – US, Japan, India & Australia – is an attempt to checkmate a belligerent China & many tormented ASEAN countries – like Vietnam – could join/engage with the grouping going forward.

Doklam Stare – Accentuation of the Indo-Chinese Fault Lines: Indian forces were mired in a standoff with the Chinese forces, for opposing the Chinese road construction activity in the India - Bhutan – China tri junction in June 2017; the standoff lasting about 72 days post which diplomacy arranged for disengagement, Japan, incidentally, was the only country to publicly approve of the Indian action.  In the interim, skirmishes were reported between the forces at the Pangong lake in Ladakh & brawls in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, indicative of potential areas of conflict in the days to come. Despite the agreement on withdrawal of forces, robust Chinese presence at Doklam, a departure from their regular practice of withdrawal during winter is foreboding. The mistrust between the Asian giants is likely to persist with important spill over effects into the coming years.

Erdogan wins Referendum; Shall Transform Secular Turkey into Islamic Republic: Turkish President Erdogan won a referendum this year that shall increase the powers of his office exponentially aiding his transformation of the country from a secular nation to an Islamic republic – a regression from the vision of Kemal Ataturk. He fancies himself as a new caliph of perhaps, the erstwhile Ottoman Empire.

GCC countries – SA, UAE, and Bahrain – in June imposed sanctions on fellow GCC country – Qatar – accusing it of terrorism & cozy ties with Iran & listed a set of demands that included shutting down the Al Jazeera channel; on Qatar’s request Turkey increased military presence in Doha & plans to increase the strength to about 3000 soldiers giving Erdogan increased heft.  

Saudi – Israel Romance: The Middle East history has been witness to a saga of conflicts for supremacy between the Arabs, Turks, Persians & Kurds; the Sykes – Picot agreement, which divided the territories among Britain & France post World War I – denied Kurds a country & the hot-potch of ethnicities in each country was meant to keep fault lines alive under the “divide & rule” policy.

Meanwhile, Prince Salman, of SA, has imprisoned his cousins & other officials ostensibly on charges of corruption & consolidated his power on the kingdom & is poised to take over the throne in 2018; his war in Yemen –of supporting the Sunni ruler – against the Shia Houthi rebels is unravelling.  PM Saad al-Hariri of Lebanon resigned while in SA – perhaps prompted by Salman – accusing Iran of terrorism to force the exit of his Shia alliance partner in govt. – Iran supported Hezbollah - thus creating vast instability in the Middle East. The complex ethnic mix in Lebanon has secured peace with the agreement that the president must be a Maronite Catholic, the prime minister a Sunni and the speaker of parliament a Shia; any attempts to change the balance shall provoke instability.

Iran is sitting pretty, having a Shia govt. in Iraq & Syria & is gaining geo-political leverage, without much expenditure unlike SA; this has hence brought together the most unlikely of allies – Israel & SA – both keen on rolling back Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The interplay among Abrahamic religions – Judaism, Christianity & Islam – ethnicities – Arabs, Kurds, Turks & Persians - & sects – Sunnis & Shias – has the potential to conflate the Middle – East powder keg any time. Jared Kusner, incidentally, was Trump’s unofficial representative to the Middle East aiding the process.

Rise of the Right Wing in Europe: Attempts at strengthening of the European Union, has led to the loss of national identity, fuelling Euro scepticism, & labour mobility has induced loss of jobs for locals thereby instigating anti- immigration sentiments. The Syrian war & ISIS attacks have led to the refugee & terror crisis, upping Islamophobia & xenophobia.  While these forces were temporarily halted by Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French Presidential Elections, this year, the growing strength of the right wing parties in the European Parliament & in countries like Germany, Netherlands etc. is indicative of the persistence of a trend that is a cause of concern.

Working towards establishing stability in the Middle East to end the refugee inflow, de-ghettoization of Muslim communities in Europe & regulating Islamic seminaries/mosques to ensure a moderate Islamic discourse shall be the key. However, with ISIS fighters sneaking back to their home countries, into Europe, post their defeat in Syria & the increased likelihood of lone wolf attacks, the right wing leaders would have sufficient meat to persist with their deadly discourse. Clearly, the Eurasian land mass is witnessing accentuation of fault lines which could have holocaustic consequences.

Strength to women emancipation efforts: Millions of women rallied around the MeToo Hashtag in the wake of systemic abuses by Media Moghul Harvey Weinstein & scalps claimed include the who's who of politics like - George Bush Sr. – Media – like Bill o’Reilly, Matt Lauer & Charlie Rose & films – Kevin Spacey. Greater revelations on sexual harassment should serve as an effective deterrent.

Governments & corporates too stepped in to aid the process of woman emancipation: France banned too thin fashion models & made labelling of digitally enhanced photos mandatory; MTV became the 1^st major awards show to adopt gender neutral categories;  Israeli woman won a landmark sexism case against airline, El Al, after asked to change seat away from man; Saudi Arabia allowed women to dive.; Nepal Parliament banned menstruation huts;  Chile’s constitutional court approved a bill to ease total abortion ban;  & the Indian Supreme Court outlawed instant triple talaq.

Conclusion

Hope the positivity of the women emancipation efforts extend into 2018 & create a better more egalitarian world where lone wolf attacks of ISIS are history & peace reigns supreme. Happy New Year 2018.