Sri Lanka: What should Sirisena do?

Pallewatte Gamaralalage Maithripala Yapa Sirisena or simply “Maitripala Sirisena”, is the giant killer, who has dethroned the imperial “king”, Mahinda Rajapaksa, in the recently concluded Presidential elections, in Sri Lanka, Born in 1951, Maitri, was active in student politics & was an active communist; he later joined the SLPF (Sri Lankan Freedom Party), became an MP for the first time in 1989 & has been a Minister since 1994. He is also the longest serving General Secretary of the SLFP.

Foisted as a joint opposition candidate of the NDF (New Democratic Front) - consisting of an inchoate coalition consisting of  the SLFP, UNP (United National Party), the Jatika Hela Urumaya and the Democratic Party - he came up with an impressive manifesto,  categorized under two heads: a 100 day plan & a 6 year plan. His left of centre leanings are clearly visible in the manifesto. A good intentioned one, the 100 day plan, if implemented, shall help unite a country deeply divided in a fiercely fought election & help him emerge as a true statesman. He has made good beginnings by promising to stay on as President only for one term & has initiated the process of forming a national government under Ranil Wickramasinghe, leader of the UNP. While the promises have been many what can we truly expect of Sirisena?

Foreign Policy

People in India expect Sirisena to be more understanding of India’s interests & help Sri Lanka emerge out of the Chinese grasp - the “String of pearls” strategy to circumvent India. Sirisena’s manifesto promised strengthening of “cordial relations with India, China, Pakistan and Japan, the principal countries of Asia, while improving friendly relations with emerging Asian nations such as Thailand, Indonesia and Korea” The  Indian policy will be based on “an attitude that would be neither anti-Indian nor dependent” it said. It is, therefore, safe to interpret that he shall, quietly, move away from Rajapaksa’s pro-China tilt but not fall into the Indian embrace. That he has promised to make India the first country of his foreign visit buttresses this assessment. He shall follow a “Look East” policy too.

He has promised that he “will prepare the Sri Lankan economy to prevent international assaults by diversification of investment, non-reliance on investments from a single country and re-investment”  He also promised that he “would achieve for the country ten times the development that actually occurred during the past six years only by preventing mega corruption that existed in the country” This clearly implies an intent to a reduce reliance on Chinese investment & plug corruption  that plagued the big ticket infrastructure projects during the Rajspaksa regime. This shall be implemented.

Rajapaksa had filled many of the key positions in the diplomatic service with his relatives. Sirisena has therefore promised that “Within hundred days all political appointments and appointment of relatives attached to the Foreign Service will be annulled and the entire Foreign Service will be reorganised using professional officials and personnel who have obtained professional qualifications”. Expect this to be implemented to clip Rajapaksa’s wings.

His manifesto promises that he “will allow no international power to ill-treat or touch a single citizen of this country on account of the campaign to defeat terrorism”. This is a “self-preservation” strategy from Sirisena was acting Defence Minister many a times - including the crucial last 2 weeks of the campaign to flush out the LTTE in 2009 - & otherwise would have to share the burden of human right violations This promise also helps in raising the cockles of the Sinhala Buddhist majority who believe that Sri Lanka is unnecessarily being harangued by the international community. He shall do with internal enquiry & try to parry off international interventions in this regard.

Minority Issues

The manifesto does not talk about the devolution of powers to the North & East. The only concession is a promise to implement an “agro-irrigation scheme for the Northern Province, principally the Jaffna peninsula”. The TNA (Tamil National Alliance) & the MC (Muslim Congress) did not seek any promises from the common candidate while supporting him while contributing handsomely to his victory for both wanted the “known devil” out. Pertinent, to note, that Sirisena did not raise any of the minority or Tamil issues during the election campaign & hence they might not top his agenda. Devolution of any kind is, therefore, unlikely. India should therefore work closely with the Sri Lankan government on rehabilitation activities including livelihood generation & housing construction & not get carried away by the chauvinistic slogans emanating from Tamil Nadu.

Governance

Sirisena has promised to abolish the Executive Presidential System - embellished with Unlimited Powers, in force since 1978 - within 100 days. Such promise have been made since 1994 but repeatedly flouted since none of the elected incumbents could shrug off the lure of unbridled power. There is another promise regarding the abolishment of the 18th Amendment to the Constitution and replace it with the establishment of independent Commissions in order to secure the impartiality of institutions such as the judiciary, police, elections, auditing and the office of the Attorney-General. This could happen.

Others

He could reinstate Shirani Bandaranayake, the former chief justice, who was sacked by Rajapaksa, two years ago & rehabilitate, Sarath Fonseka, the erstwhile army chief who fought against Rajapaksa in the last Presidential race in 2010, lost. & then was indicted for corruption in military procurement, perhaps due to political vendetta.

Sirisena even with the best of intentions has a tight rope walk to perform. Therefore, prudent not to expect miracles from him but a nuanced approach more appreciative of India’s concerns as compared to the previous regime..