Elections-2014: Lessons Learnt

Elections are festoons of democracy and a remarkable conduit to usher in what Abraham Lincoln said in the Gettysburg Address, on November 19, 1863 “Government of the people, by the people and for the people”. The year 2014 started with a bang, with AAP renouncing power in Delhi. in February- to fight a national battle - after a 49 day stint, which was admired for its pro poor & anti-graft administration as much as it suffered the derision for its self-professed “anarchism”. The big game of 2014 was, however, the parliamentary elections, held during April & May that was preceded by the cacophony of TV debates & followed, immediately, by book launches, on the enormous significance of this election. No such grand standing here for my intent is to analyse the political events in its entirety and connect the dots to glean a few takeaways  

Lesson-1 “Nurture your constituency or risk political ignominy or worse, oblivion”

Looks obvious isn’t it? However this lesson is often breached, leading to an inglorious end to outstanding political careers. L K Advani is one such offender of this first principle. The BJP patriarch, even to his worst detractors, was the sculptor who moulded the party into the monolith it is today. Advani won the Lok Sabha seat from New Delhi in 1989 & a scare given by Rajesh Khanna, in 1991, forced him to shift to the Gandhinagar thereafter; the latter could not build on his initial electoral success & frittered it away – a repeat of the astounding loss of his super stardom.  

Advani, confident of his national stature, left the nurturing of his constituency to his trusted lieutenant Narendra Modi and Amit Shah; after all it was Advani who protected Modi from being sacked as Chief Minister after the “raj dharma” comment of the then Prime Minister, Vajpayee, post the 2002 Godhra riots. That things turned a full circle by 2013 is part of folklore; Advani’s plea to contest from Bhopal was rejected, sulk overlooked & he is forced to live in semi-retirement as part of the defunct “Margdarshak Mandal” of the BJP. So much for the “Loh Purush”

Rahul Gandhi case is an interesting one. The scion of the first family got the Amethi constituency, the family pocket borough, on a platter & for want of investment of time & effort was given a scare by AAP’s Kumar Vishwas & BJP’s Smriti Irani before he scraped through with a lower margin as compared to the previous election in 2009. Clearly, without clear articulation of his dreams & execution he would find re- election in 2019 difficult.

Lesson 2- “Parties lose but politicians don’t”

Chidambaram once said “We cannot have an affluent promoter and a sick company”. In India companies become bankrupt but promoters don’t. Taking the analogy further “parties India lose but politicians don’t”. As an example the congress pushed through Telengana which meant a definite decimation for the party in Seema-Andhra. However as soon as Telangana happened, most of the Congress MLA’a and MP’s, including ministers in the central cabinet, trooped out to find safe sanctuary in the YSR Congress, the TDP or the BJP. Similar experiences were replicated in the Maharashtra & Haryana elections too that were held in late 2014. We therefore witness a despicable situation where parties that once prided themselves on their ideological purity are now degenerating into entities offering a premium to win-ability alone which is the first sign of a decaying state. Politicians’, sauntering to cooler climes is only a part of the malady.

Lesson 3- “Social media is important,”

In May 2014, India had about 10 crore facebook, 3.3 crore twitter & 2.6 crore linkedin users. Thus, of an 81.4 crore electorate, about 12% had an access to facebook and a still lower percentage of people had access to other social media sites. With aggressive plans by all social media players to increase penetration, it is safe to assume that social media shall play a more decisive role in the next general elections to be held in 2019. With over 93 crore of  the 125 crore indian population enjoying mobile connectivity & the figure only likely to rise northward by 2019, expect targeted, customized mobile advertising by all political parties by such time Politicians have transitioned from image management through carefully curated press leaks to well-groomed exclusive bytes as per the demands of 24x7 TV channels. They now have the daunting task of being media friendly & tech savvy too – a transition to the latter has the potent possibility of speaking over the media to the electorate thereby reducing the costs of intermediation. Will they take the leap?

Lesson 4- “Don’t spread yourself too thin”

“Marketing warfare” & the principle of contraction defence indicates that rather than spreading forces too thin, concentrating forces at one vantage point enhances the chances of victory. Had AAP digested this universal law, it would not have recommended dissolution of the Delhi assembly but concentrated, instead, its forces in the national capital & supported by the strength of the government machinery achieved a spectacular victory, cementing its position further. Had it been more ambitious & resourceful, it could have concentrated its efforts on states surrounding NCR - Punjab, Haryana, HP & Western UP & not contest over 400 seats - which it finally did - with disastrous consequences. While AAP’s attempt to create a national footprint, quickly, riding on a positive sentiment, had its own sets of admirers, it is now clear that spreading themselves thin - both in terms of human & financial resources -  led to a disaster.

Therefore, the year, 2014, shall go down in history as a year that hosted a watershed election, run in a presidential style & helped a man - with humble beginnings, born after Indian independence in 1947 - to become Prime Minister. Likewise the political canvas in India which was always Congress Vs the rest is slowly but surely shifting towards a new paradigm:  BJP vs the rest. The increase in polling percentages across all states including the recent J&K elections as well as the emergence of change agents like AAP gives us hope that India shall evolve into “participative” democracy from merely being a “representative” one. With lessons learnt democracy in India shall not only survive but achieve greater heights.