General Elections: India - 2019

The year, 2014, was memorable, for it threw up a party with absolute majority – after 30 years - shattering the predictions of poll pundits. The rise of President Xi Jinping in China coincides with the emergence of Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, in India. The tectonic “power shift” towards Asia is slowly getting revealed & Modi & Xi are surely going to play a definitive role in accelerating such a transition. While Xi’s continuance for a decade, in China, is assured - because the single party communist leadership ensures leadership transition only once every decade - Modi has the onerous task of winning the 2019 general elections to stay on at the helm. Predicting the 2019 General Elections, therefore, becomes rather interesting, although cynics could scoff at such an analysis, for the actual event is years away.

Looking back at history we find that India, between 1947- 77, was characterized, by the single party rule of the Congress, while the period 1977-1998 was marked by anti-incumbency – 1984 being the only exception when the sympathy wave generated due to Indira Gandhi’s assassination ensured a Congress victory. Remarkably, the period beyond 1998 has seen pro-incumbency for regimes that perform. That begs the question:

What helps regimes trump anti-incumbency?

“Sympathy”, propelled Vajpayee to victory in 1999 since his 13 month regime that started in 1998, was cruelly cut short – a repeat of the fate that befell the 13 day regime of 1996 – by the opposition. By 2004, the electorate had the shoe on the other foot & the NDA regime was booted out, perhaps, because the “India Shining” campaign boomeranged. Voters, it appears, are “kind” to the underdog & “punish” any attempt at going overboard while showcasing achievements.

The UPA, on the other hand, won, in 2009, by promoting transparency – by passing the Right to Information act - & spending on the social sector through NREGA - that helped grow rural wages & ushered economic prosperity. The regime, seen as progressive, caring for India’s energy security - post the nuclear deal with the US – was granted a stupendous victory which unfortunately was squandered due to monumental corruption of the 2G, Coal Gate & CWG (commonwealth games) kind. Obviously, a “silent” Prime Minister was not seen as a liability by the electorate in 2009 which alludes to another takeaway. The electorate, perhaps prefers a “communicative leader” but would not mind a “silent’ one as long as he delivers on governance.

In short, Indian voters are “emotional” who support the underdogs - classical “David versus the Goliath” principle. The growth of the BJP from 2 seats in 1984 to 120 in 1991 was by riding the “emotive” religious Ram temple issue. “Transparency”, a euphemism for “No corruption” touches a chord. “Progressive” leaders with a “Big Idea” who implement effective social sector programmes help create a committed cadre who fan advocacy. Paradoxically, voters detest the leaders who destroy institutions while still adoring “strong leaders”. Indira Gandhi’s leadership during the Bangladesh war was appreciated while her excesses during the Emergency rebuked.

What triggers anti-incumbency?

The elections of 1977 & 1989 were won because of the greater “index of opposition unity”. The disintegration, soon thereafter, of the opportunistic alliances because of competing ideologies & egos of interest groups put paid to further ambitions of a re-election. The electorate, therefore, is wary of “instability” & has lately been making amends by issuing definitive verdicts.

The loss of the Congress in 1996 & BJP in 2004 were due to charges of “corruption”, “inflation concerns”& wrong “alliance arithmetic”. Interesting to note that the Congress tied up with a deeply despised, AIADMK, in 1996 – forgoing a golden opportunity of Congress revival in Tamil Nadu with the help of Rajnikant - & the BJP repeated the mistake in 2004, dumping the DMK, just before the parliamentary elections, to tie up with the significant other – leading to disastrous consequences. Tehelka revelations, Coffin scam, petrol bunk scam, Balco sell off & US64 torpedoed the BJP in 2004 while the Congress tasted dust, in 1996, due to the JMM bribery case- to win the no confidence motion - Jain dairies & the “lack of probity” in Lakhubhai Pathak & Naina Sahni “tandoor’ murder cases.

Interestingly, the Babri Masjid demotion of 1992, & the consequent riots cost the Congress dearly in 1996 while the Gujarat riots cost the BJP, its allies & seats in 2004. It appears therefore that Indians are inherently “peace loving” & any attempts to “destroy communal harmony” is punished, perhaps because perpetual violence leads to shut downs that effect the daily wages of the proletariat.

How would the BJP fare in 2019?

The BJP’s juggernaut continues to roll on, tidily; post a victory in the parliamentary elections, in May 2014, it was won the state elections in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand & posted its best ever performance in J&K. Delhi elections, scheduled in Feb, 2015 would be a cliffhanger. It would, however, end 2015, losing in Bihar to the triumvirate of the Janata Parivar – Nitish’s JD(U) & Lalu’s RJP – & the Congress. 2016, shall be a busy year when Assam would be retained by Congress - with a depleted strength though - Jaya would win Tamil Nadu - due to the “sympathy’ generated by her arrest in 2013 - & the Left front would regain power in Kerala after a long hiatus. The BJP, inspite of its best efforts in West Bengal would increase its vote share & seats, not good enough though to dislodge Mamata’s TMC. Therefore, the BJP is predicted to be only partially successful in its southern & eastern sojourns.

The BJP, in 2017, would win UP & perhaps increase seats in Punjab too much to the chagrin of the SAD. In its attempt to dominate from the “Panchayat to the Parliament” – a merry cry for the karyakartas – it shall antagonize current allies - like the Shiv Sena, SAD, TDP - & perhaps supporters like the BJD & the AIADMK who would brook no attempts to usurp their support bases. The BJP’s merry ride shall therefore peak by 2017 helping it consolidate its position in the Rajya Sabha; unfortunately, however, it could be a downhill slide from then on.

In 2018, BJP would lose Chhattisgarh - for they won the last elections too by a whisker – lose Rajasthan - characterized as it is by a shifting polity - & perhaps lose Gujarat too – for Anandiben is no Modi.  Shivraj Chouhan could win in MP, just as Naveen Pattnaik - of the BJD – would in Odisha. BJP could make a comeback in Karnataka, in 2018, if it manages its state affairs well.

The BJP shall enter the election minefield of 2019, with freshly elected state governments of Karnataka, MP - in their honeymoon period - Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana & Delhi - perhaps facing huge anti-incumbency unless the new untested leadership at the states performs a miracle. Since replicating the UP & Bihar success, of 2014 - that propelled the BJP to power in the parliamentary elections - is unlikely, it is safe to assume that the BJP would drop to about 170 Lok Sabha seats, in 2019. Would the BJP still remain the single largest party capable of attracting allies is left to conjecture.

What should the BJP’s Game plan be?

The BJP, to regain power, would try to exploit the success mantras: religious polarization; social sector spends; strong leadership. Strong leadership at the helm, they have & social sector spends post growth pick up could flow. Unfortunately, though, the cauldron of communal polarization to beat the caste segregation might be employed leading to a searing social strife.

What should be the game plan of the Congress?

The Congress meanwhile, needs to passionately pursue all the anti-incumbency vectors: corruption: inflation; & attempts to destroy institutions - to besmirch the incumbent. They should work towards greater index of opposition unity; after all it was such a strategy that ensured its victory in 2004. But above all else it needs to have a general, not living in foreign shores or a utopian world, but willing to take charge both inside & outside Parliament.

Conclusion

The elections of 2019 therefore would be an interesting fight between Rahul Gandhi’s David versus Modi’s Goliath. Who shall emerge as the winner in this bruising encounter? Only time will tell. Interesting times cometh. The clock is ticking.