The Unlikelihood Of A War With Pakistan

 There are many in India who are fed up with the incessant nit pricking from Pakistan, driven by their policy to "bleed India through a thousand cuts". India's war record against Pakistan has not been spectacular, despite the outstanding performance of the armed forces, due to a lack of material resources & a political will to force results. The first war in 1948 was across Kashmir, a territory which we still retain though as a festering wound, in need of attention & a solution. The second war in 1965, as per the Indian army's own archives, was a stalemate while the 3rd in 1971,was a thumping victory that dismembered the country into Bangladesh & Pakistan. The result of the 3rd war encourages hawks to imagine the dismemberment of Pakistan again. Kargil intrusion happened in 1999 & Pakistani forces were forced to withdrew due to international pressure. Kargil too saw material shortages, a problem which still persists, indicating that we are yet to learn from history & even if we do, we delay action leading to dis-quietening consequences.

Pakistan's nuclear parity with India prevents the latter from waging a war against the former despite her conventional weapon superiority. China's tilt towards Pakistan is obvious & since India is in no position today to fight on 2 fronts today, war with Pakistan is only in the realm of imagination.Would our allies support us during a crisis? History indicates otherwise.

America & the Soviet Union, busy with the Cuban missile crisis, delayed support to India in 1962 causing us a loss of territory & pride; would the situation be any different today? America denied software codes, for the Patriot missiles even to its closest ally - Israel - during the Gulf crisis, in 1991; surely India cannot expect a different treatment. The latest Indian tilt towards the USA, had an immediate reaction; Russia has started supplying military equipment to Pakistan & hence India cannot count on the traditional Russian support either. The costs of death, destruction, displacement & reconstruction are the other vectors for consideration before taking a call on crossing the borders. Therefore, the hawks who are rooting for a "final battle" with Pakistan have misplaced priorities.

The "Gujral docrrine" , perhaps, ensured the destruction of the Indian Intelligence network in Pakistan in the late 90's. Building the same is time consuming & the statement of the NSA, Ajit Doval, that any Pakistani misadventure on India would be rapid & repaid through the independence of Baluchistan is reflective of the strategic thought process of this govt. Talking Peace with Pakistan - generally rickety because of various power centres, unless there is a dictatorship - should always be the top priority but if it fails application of covert means is the only solution since inaction is not deemed as a sign of "graciousness" but "weakness" as social science theory has already proved. However, "silence" is the golden rule of covert operations unlike the "chest thumping" that we saw on national television after the Indian raid on NSCN (K) camp in Myammar. Diplomacy & covert operations are two pawns to be moved simultaneously on the chessboard of International relations. Since neighbors cannot be chosen, "Peace" should remain the topmost priority always.