Paris Bombings: The Takeaways

The ghoulish shootings in Paris in January post the publication of Charlie Hebdo cartoons is now followed by bombings at 6 locations, in the same location, killing over 129 people & injuring many others – an eerie replay of the Mumbai attacks - meant to create mayhem in places where human concentration – both locals & tourists - is highest.  Intelligence failure it definitely was for the chatter on social media that generally precedes such events was missed by sleuths; or was this event a “lucky one” as the IRA once grimly warned: “You have to be lucky every time; we only have to be lucky once.”  With the perpetuators not yet liquated & the support networks still to be unearthed, a second tide of attacks cannot be dismissed, perhaps, putting at risk the impending summit level “Climate Change” talks scheduled next month.  The Islamic Caliphate Da’esh has claimed responsibility

All large urban conglomerates can be easy targets as the multiple attacks across Europe in UK, Spain, France, Netherlands, Belgium & Denmark during the last 15 years has proved.   London has avoided a Paris like situation by installing CCTV cameras in public places rekindling the ethical debate between “Privacy” & “Security”. While the state would be keen on absolute surveillance powers,  the Edward Snowden revelations warn us of the perils of a “Big Brother” Orwellian state & hence the need to tread on middle ground.  

France is home to about 5 million Muslims – the largest in Europe – largely from their former colonies in Northern Africa. The consequences of Paris like deadly shootings is generally a wave of xenophobia – generally fanned by enterprising politicians -with demands for denial of emigration, clampdown on  refugees fleeing war/persecution  et al; the former goes against the principle of labour mobility effecting economic vectors while the latter goes against the UN convention of the Rights of Refugees. France, thankfully, has only imposed a partial Emergency & is desisting from making policy changes on the above listed issues which, hopefully, would become an international template. Islam or minority bashing has been avoided by the mainstream media.

The positive outcome of the situation is the decision by G-20 – whose mandate is largely economic - to take up for discussion the issue of terror in its summit meeting, starting this Sunday, at Turkey. The lackadaisical attitude of the UN in not defining “terror” yet because of a lack of consensus – courtesy the competing interests of rival states - hopefully will be reversed. Inclusion of “state sponsorship” of terror into the consensus resolution is an absolute must. 

The West has generally been dismissive of the pleas, for action, of nation states at the receiving end of terrorism, assuming it to be a developing country phenomena fuelled by poverty.  Violence in places like Lebanon, Israel , the Indian sub- continent  et all were attributed to sectorial strife forgetting how the same was encouraged by the colonial masters under the policy of “divide & rule”. The narrative is slowly changing post the dastardly act of 9/11 & the Paris bombings hopefully would help in the evolution of a globally co-ordinated anti- terror drive. Any further delay would be inherently suicidal.

The commonality of "Islamic terror", in both the French acts, makes certain analysts come to the conclusion that Islam is inherently fundamentalist. The fatwas issued against Salman Rushdie for writing the “Satanic Verses” or Taslima Nasreen being ousted of her country, Bangladesh, due to death threats because of writing “Lazza”   are but a few examples that buttress their argument. The decimation of Christian minorities in Lebanon or the Hindu minority in Bangladesh & Pakistan, post partition, give credence to such views. However, it is important not to forget that “Sufism”  - a strand of Islam - enhanced religious unity in the Indian sub- continent & efforts should be made by all the leaders to ensure that moderate leadership amongst Islamic nations is strengthened.  Just as Western Monarchies taking on Papal authority after the crusades led to the reformist movements in Christianity, strengthening moderate leadership in Islam is a key to reduce the hold of religious institutions. Elucidation of secular principles through education would be a natural corollary & the template created by Kemal Ataturk in Turkey is worthy of replication; paradoxically, though, Turkey today has already veered towards the right. Egypt, on the other hand, throws up an ethical dilemma between supporting a “moderate military dictatorship” versus a “fundamentalist democracy”.

The problem with Western democracies has always been to use religion to achieve political goals not in their backyard but beyond their shores. The British were guilty of “divide & rule” – between the majoritarian Hindus & the largest minority, Muslims, in the Indian subcontinent and using “jihad” as a route to take on the Ottoman Empire in Turkey during World War 1. Britain’s partner – the US – nurtured & trained the Wahhabi Mujahedeen - during the 1980’s - to win a proxy war in Afghanistan against the Soviets. Al-Qaeda & Bin laden - products of the same turbulent times - ultimately recoiled on their patron causing wanton destruction on 9/11. The US’s “war on terror” infringed on the freedom of sovereign states:  Iraq to find “weapons of mass destruction” – elusive till date - & Afghanistan; their accelerated withdrawal of boots from the ground, to honour an election pledge, has compounded the problem leading to the rise of forces like the ISIS. The Shia Sunni conflict for supremacy led by Iran & Saudi Arabia has created the Syrian crisis. With Russia & China pitted against Western Nations in this conflict the geo-political scenario has become complicated heralding a humanitarian crisis. Western nations should therefore be forewarned that using religion to achieve political goals could recoil. They should also be more astute & control the arms lobby.

While the above listed strategic direction is long term some short term measures are urgently called for.  Converts to the ISIS cause, due to propaganda on social media, have reached Da’esh territory through Turkey – a western ally. Pressure on Turkey to plug the route is the first step.  Monitoring of social media to stop converts from travelling abroad is the other step. Strengthening the police forces- the first line of defence against terror is an urgent need. While the UN mandates 222 policemen per lakh of population many countries are running with a depleted infrastructure which needs immediate attention. De-radicalization programs for returnees from Syria & monitoring their movements, closely, are imperative.

Nostradamus has predicted the emergence of a tyrant, the 3^rd anti – Christ, from the Middle-East who shall be the cause of World War 3. Many from the earlier generation assumed it to be Saddam Husain – looking at his penchant for war against Iran or invasion of Kuwait. With his death & the emergence of Abu bakr al-Baghdadi as the head of the Islamic caliphate of Da’esh the prediction now sounds more chilling. Hopefully Nostradamus for once shall be proved wrong. Inshallah!!