The Indo-Pak Bangkok Entente

The Indian & Pakistani NSAs (National Security Advisers), accompanied by the Foreign Secretaries, met in faraway Bangkok, away from media glare, for secret talks, that surprised many observers & invited domestic political consternation in India. Was Bangkok chosen, by the Indian side, merely, to keep the Pak team away from meeting the Hurriyat? If so, it is nothing more than a “mild hurrah”; it is counter-productive too, for the forgotten Hurriyat – increasingly seen as turning irrelevant in J&K politics, as per certain influential voices – is thus helped to gain political legitimacy. 

In talks lasting about 4.5 hours they “covered peace and security, terrorism, Jammu and Kashmir, other issues including tranquillity over the Line of Control".  By talking on “all issues” unlike sticking to its earlier stand to talk only on “terror”, India seems to have reneged its position to Pak’s “open agenda” While the diplomatic sulk being replaced with talks is indeed welcome, the flip flops in the NDA’s Pak policy, during the last 18 months, leads critics to question: Does India have a well- crafted Pak policy?

The Pak Rangers & the BSF meet planned as part of the Ufa communiqué did happen in Sept although the DGMO & Foreign Secretary Level talks were cancelled after a brouhaha over “Kashmir” exclusion from the Ufa statement; the NSAa have now met & with Sushma Swaraj & the Foreign Secretary in Pak for the “Heart of Asia Conference”, starting 8^th Dec, they too shall inevitably meet, thereby completing the engagement at various levels.  Incidentally, the PMs of the two countries have already met up at Paris during the COP 21 meeting in Nov.

Diplomatic observers now comprehend that the 167 secs “chance” meeting between the PM of the two countries at Paris was “curated”; after all both leaders did not meet in New York, in Sept 2015, when they came to attend the UNGA meeting & were ensconced at the same hotel but decided to do so now. The statement released after the Bangkok meet says “Pursuant to the meetings of the Prime Ministers of India and Pakistan in Paris” stoking a mystery with the use of the plural “meetings”: Did the PMs’ meet more than once at Paris? If so, is it being hidden just as the meeting during the SAARC summit at Kathmandu was hidden? The Hindustan Times, quoting from Barkha Dutt’s book “This Unquiet Land — Stories from India’s Fault Lines”, reveals that the Indian Steel Magnate, Sajjan Jindal, a confidant of the two PMs, facilitated a one on one meeting, for about an hour, between them, at Kathmandu, away from the spotlights, although a “quiet handshake” alone was served to the assembled media which, therefore, assumed “cold” vibes between the two leaders. Jindals' "altruism" is courtesy his need to use Pak as the conduit to transport iron ore from their mines in Afghanistan.  Clearly, what you see is not what you get.

Meanwhile, Raheel Sharief – the Pak Army Chief – has quietly consolidated himself during the last 2 years; post the launch of the Zarb-e-Azb, a military operation in North Waziristan on 15^th June 2014, he is seen as fighting terror, internally, earning international accolades. His stock shall only increase further with the rise of the ISIS & incidents like the Paris ones multiplying. The US is mollycoddling him since his support is critical for facilitating their force withdrawal from Afghanistan & to bring the Taliban & the Haqqani network to the negotiating table. Raheel has used the Indian tilt towards the US to create a new opening with Russia & procured arms, which frightens the Americans into supporting him more, to retain their geopolitical strategic advantage. He strengthened his position further by getting a former Retired Lieutenant General, Nasser Khan Janjua, as the new NSA, in Oct 2015 & by placing him in the PM secretariat has effectively checkmated Nawaz Sharief further. Perhaps, the army axe fell on Satraj Aziz - who was earlier holding the dual portfolio of NSA & Advisor on foreign Affairs - for the lackadaisical wording of the Ufa statement in July 2015. The Chinese are also favourably disposed towards the Army Chief for he is an invaluable ally to get their infrastructure projects, including the strategic link to the Gwadar port going.  Enfeebled, Nawaz is trying desperately, to extricate himself from this knotty situation by trying to create a diplomatic opening to make himself relevant.

Internationally, many believe that Nawaz needs to be supported to ensure tailwinds to the democratic forces in Pak. From India’s perspective though supporting Nawaz Sharief & entering into any agreement is futile since he cannot effectively implement his promises for the cards are, currently, held by the Army chief,  Raheel Sharief - a known hawk for his uncle Raja Aziz Bhatti died in the 1965 war & his elder brother Major Rana Shabbir Sharief died in 1971 war, against India. India’s “containment” strategy on Pakistan is not working either & after being at the at the receiving end of diplomatic arm-twisting, India seems to have availed of the only diplomatic option available: commence talks with Pak at various levels & hopefully get the US support on implementation which needless to say is a tall ask, for the US shall be guided by its own strategic considerations.

In short for all those who believe that this is a new dawn & a breakthrough is inevitable: Temper your expectations.