Modi's Stop Over At Lahore: Stoop To Conquer

Prime Minister Modi’s stop over at Lahore, though touted as a spontaneous “statesman like” decision, perhaps, is not. The Paki political commentator, Ayesha Siddiqa, has mentioned that the Paki High Commissioner was trudging between the two countries, prior to the trip, perhaps to close loop on the contours of the visit. Sushma Swaraj, too, surprisingly, met with “5 generations” of Sharief’s family members during her last visit to Pakistan, for the Heart of Asia conference, in the 2nd week of Dec, which is not a normal diplomatic practice. Likewise the presence of Sajjan Jindal, widely assumed to be the interlocutor between the two PMs, in Pakistan, strengthens the assessment. All these incidents cannot, surely, be brushed off as mere coincidences. Was this all done to create that "Aha" moment for the shutterbugs?

Modi picks his dates well; the architects of the last Indo-Pak peace process, during 1998 - 2004, Nawaz Sharief & Vajpayee were born on 25^th Dec;  that it coincides with Christmas, Mohd Ali Jinnah’s birthday & Nawaz’s grand daughter Merunissa’s marriage day makes it special.  While the diplomatic spin of a "surprise visit" is untrue, any attempt to restart the peace process between the nuclear armed neighbors, is welcome; however, it is disconcerting to note the absence of the Paki NSA, General Janjua, in the meeting where the Indian NSA – Ajit Doval – was present along with the PM. Does it mean the Pak army is not fully bought in? Also surprising was the Paki spokesperson’s assertion that Modi did not know about the wedding but only knew about Nawaz’s birthday; was it pure diplomatic posturing?

Now the billion dollar question: Why did Modi visit Pakistan?

The opposition wants us to believe that it is a “suit boot ki sarkar” trying to push the business interests of the Jindals; that might not be fully true.  Was it to provide diplomatic heft to Nawaz who has been considerably weakened at the expense of the other Sharief – the Paki Army Chief? Perhaps, yes.  The political establishment in Pakistan – both the ruling dispensation & the opposition - realize that if the current situation continues, then Pakistan could very well regress, yet again, into a military dictatorship. Is that the reason that has forced the Paki opposition parties including Bhutto's PPP & Imran Khan's PTI to issue a statement supporting the visit?;  the Jamaat – e –Islami, was the dissenting voice though. However, that runs counter to the conventional narrative that Imran Khan & Qadri's protests against Nawaz's govt., last year, were sponsored by the Paki Army; the PPP though had transitioned power peacefully to Nawaz's Muslim League & hence can be considered to be more interested in protecting the nascent democracy in that country. Against this background it is logical to ask the question : Why has India taken the bait?

History,  is witness to the fact that only when the Paki Military is in power, did we achieve substantial progress in relations, since it is the only institution in Pakistan that can deliver on its promises.  So what does India gain by supporting Nawaz who cannot deliver on any promises? Is there International pressure to prop Nawaz up to sustain democratic forces? Or is the threat of ISIS - which is very real - after its affiliated fighters have overrun 5 districts in Afghanistan, forced a rethink in the Indian Security establishment to buy peace with Pakistan to prevent the further spread of ISIS. Perhaps, under US pressure, the hawkish General Raheel Sharief, has been forced to tone down rhetoric, & his nominee made the new NSA who shall interact with the Indian counterpart; this would be agreeable to the Indian govt. - smarting post a defeat in Bihar & Delhi where its own Paki bashing failed to translate into votes -  since General Janjua can get his promises implemented. It is against this assumption that Janjua's absence in the last meeting is a cause for concern.

There are those who believe that this visit was to deflect public & media attention from the not so successful visit to Russia & Afghanistan; but now that evidences alludes to the fact that the visit was pre-scripted, such allegations can be laid to rest.

Modi’s invitation to the heads of govt. of SAARC nations, in 2014, for his swearing in was definitely a “masterstroke” & when Nawaz attended, India was operating from a position of strength. The attacks on Indian consulate at Herat, Afghanistan, happened at the same time, indicating that ISI & the Paki military were not completely bought in on a reapproachment between the two countries. The BJP govt. did not aid matters by cancelling foreign secy. level talks in 2014 & drawing a Red line  not to meet the Hurriyat; it was largely a jingoistic posturing to win the J&K elections. To rectify matters, the Indian Foreign Secretary, Jaishankar, had to then travel to Pakistan under the guise of a “SAARC tour” but failed. The threads were picked up again, perhaps under Big Brother US's pressure, initially at Kathmandu - away from media glare & at later at Ufa under one; both failed. The absence of “Kashmir” in the Ufa communiqué hailed as a triumph by chest thumping BJP spokespersons torpedoed the process later. Finally, Paris broke the thaw which has led to the NSAs meeting at Bangkok, Sushma Swaraj visiting Pakistan for the Heart of Asia conference & now this 80 min “symbolic” Modi visit.  India, clearly, is now negotiating from a position of weakness; looks desperate to restart talks when the situation in the valley is deteriorating, influence on Afghanistan waning & the international community is seeing Pakistan as more reasonable & India trigger happy. 

It would be prudent for the Indian PM to follow protocol & visit Pakistan after making complete preparations to be followed with measurable outcomes. Carrying Dawood or Lakhvi back in his plane from Pakistan would have been a great story although far-fetched.  Since Kashmir, Terror or Siachen are complex issues that would deny an immediate solution, attending to the smaller irritants like Sir Creek, People to People contacts, Easing visa regulations & Trade - getting Pakistan to give India the MFN status -  could be good starting points. It is important to steer clear of theatrics & talk accomplishments.