The Middle - East Conundrum: The diplomatic Challenge for the World

The rising temperatures in the Middle - East has created a febrile situation that is consuming much of diplomatic mind-space in major capitals of the world. The divergent geopolitical strategies pursued by the two most important powers in the region - Saudi Arabia & Iran - has contributed to the tempestuous situation eluding a cogent response to the civil war in Syria & the rise of the ISIS. While Saudi Arabia leads a Sunni coalition & Iran commands a Shia one, understanding the historical genesis of the conflict is crucial to appreciate the current quagmire.

Why the animosity between the Shias & Sunnis?

Sunnis account for about 85% of the 1.6 billion Muslims worldwide while Shias account for a majority of the rest. Shias comprise a majority in Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Bahrain, and a plurality in Lebanon, while Sunnis make up the majority of more than forty countries from Morocco to Indonesia

Prophet Mohammed gave birth to Islam in 610 AD & before his death in 632 AD, had consolidated the faith in Arabia.  In the fight for succession that followed the Sunnis insisted on Mohammed’s disciple & his father-in-law, Abu Bakr, to be made his successor while the Shias pushed for the dynastic succession of Mohammed’s cousin & his son in Law Ali ibn Abi Talib.

Abu Bakr become the first caliph & was followed soon by 2 others whose authority the Shias rejected; they reject them even today. Reconciliation happened & Ali became caliph in 656 AD but was assassinated 5 years later. His sons, Hassan and Hussein, were denied the right of accession to the caliphate. While Hassan is believed to have been poisoned by Muawiyah, the first caliph (leader of Muslims) of the Umayyad dynasty, his brother, Hussein, was killed on the battlefield along with members of his family, in 680 AD, at Karbala, Iraq, by soldiers of the second Umayyad caliph. The Shias, perhaps feeling betrayed, rejected the caliphates that passed from Arabia to the Umayyad dynasty in Damascus and later the Abbasids in Baghdad.

Sunni - Islam dominated for the first 9 centuries till the establishment of the Safavid dynasty in Persia, in 1501, bolstered the latter by making Shia Islam the state religion, . The Safavids fought the Ottomans - the seat of the Sunni caliphate – for the next 2 centuries enlarging the chasm between the two communities. That continues even today.

The Sykes Picot line

Colonization added another layer to the already existing mess in the region. The Caliphate was abolished post the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, in World War 1 & the territory divided between the victors - France & Britain. Mark Sykes of Britain and François Georges-Picot of France - entrusted the task of segregating territories - did so by drawing a line without paying attention to either ethnic & religious divisions nor to natural

demarcations like rivers & mountains. The ethnic groups of the Middle East - Arabs, Persians, Turks & Kurds - were clubbed together & controlled initially through imperialism & later through dictatorships or royalty. Minorities suffered in the bargain. Kurds the 4^th largest ethnic group of the Middle East account for 20% of the population in Turkey & Iraq, 15% in Syria & 10% of Iran but have no independent state of its own – just like the Palestinians. The other end of the spectrum was the usurpation of power by the minorities & maintenance of status-quo through force. Disaster, therefore, was waiting to happen.

Illiberal Minority ruling over a Majority

Iraq’s population of 55% Arab Shia, 18% Arab Sunni, 21% Kurds & 6% others has been ruled by despotic Saddam – a Sunni - between 1979-2003 until the US invasion unseated him & gave the country a Shia Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki; the lack of inclusive politics by the latter too has balkanised the country into the Kurdish north east, Sunni west & the Shia rest.  ISIS holds the western part of the country along with territory in war ravaged Syria. The situation in Syria, Bahrain & Yemen is no different. The appropriation of power & pelf, in Syria, by people belonging to the Alawi sub sect of Shia Islam invited peaceful protests in 2011 but soon turned violent when the regime led by Bashar al-Assad, proceeded with barbaric suppression.  The US has taken an anti-Assad stand while China & Russia has taken a more pro Assad stand rekindling the re-emergence of another Cold war.

Iran: The rise of Ayatollah Khomeini

Khomeini’s “Islamic revolution” in 1979 marked the overthrow of the US backed Shah of Iran, Mohammed Pahlavi. This sent shock waves through the Middle East royalty;  Khomeini’s support to Shia groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Bahrain, and Pakistan accentuated this displeasure. The US proceeded by imposing diplomatic sanctions to corner the regime

Iran continued to play its own power games to enhance power in the region. It supports the Shia militia, Hezbollah, in Lebanon, the rebels in Bahrain & the Houthi rebels in Yemen; the rebels in both the cases are fighting the Sunni royal families. Success in Yemen shall give Iran a beachhead to the Red Sea much to Saudi chagrin. This was bound to elicit a Saudi counter.

Saudi Counter

The Saudi royal family, concerned with the growing Shia influence in the region, supported the spread of Wahabism – the most puritanical form of Islam. The growth of Al Qaeda was a consequence of such a policy. They backed the Sunni regime of Saddam Husain, in Iraq, in the 1980–1988 war, with Iran, but withdrew support after he attacked Kuwait. To establish a Sunni influence in Afghanistan they sponsored the Afghan Mujahedeen in their fight against the Soviet Union - that had invaded Afghanistan in 1979 & installed the puppet regime of Najibullah. The US & many Western powers supported the Saudi move & used another predominantly Sunni country, Pakistan, as the conduit to supply arms & ammunition & provide training facilities. Gen Zia-ul-Haq, the then President of Pakistan, in a bid to add muscle to the movement, supported the establishment of madrassas to create fanatical forces; these forces have now started to bite their earlier patrons leading to instability in Pakistan. All countries in the Middle East would like to keep the fanatical forces that they had created, engaged outside their boundaries to maintain stability at home. Needless to say, the chickens are bound to come home to roost sooner or later.

Nevertheless, Riyadh monitors its oil rich eastern provinces – home to a Shia minority - & has deployed a coalition of 10 Sunni majority countries to protect the ruling Sunni royal families of Bahrain & Yemen.  Simultaneously, it offers financial support to the Sunni rebels in Syria while denying the same to Al Qaeda & other extremist organizations to keep the US in good humour. This fine balancing act is unlikely to bring stability to the region.

Terrorist Diaspora

Battle hardened Afghan war veterans of the 1980’s were the core of global terror networks like the Al Qaeda earlier. The volunteers, from Western Countries, post the war in Syria, would return to their homelands, as battle hardened veterans & in the words of FBI director, James B. Comey, can be viewed as a potential “terrorist diaspora”. Indoctrination through social media has made enrolment to terror networks easier & the addition of field experience would create a fearsome war machine with global implications. A co-ordinated approach by all like-minded nations is, therefore, an urgent need.

Redrawing of Boundaries

The cartography bequeathed to the region by British and French colonial authorities is currently getting redrawn. The Assad regime in Syria controls a rump state that extends to the Mediterranean coast connecting with Hezbollah strongholds, threatening the territorial integrity of Lebanon. The Shia axis now extends from Iran to the Mediterranean creating unease in Saudi Arabia.  

ISIS, controls the eastern regions of Syria & western regions of Iraq - a region with vast oil reserves that assures a ready access to finance.  The establishment of the Islamic Caliphate & its expansion plans published alongside, has caused international consternation.

Kurdish groups in northern Syria & their Iraqi cousins are seeking their long denied independence. Yemen -unified in 1990 – could re-fracture along sectarian lines. While most politicians in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon reject attempts to redraw the map of the region, an existential challenge cannot be denied.

Conclusion

The great power games being played in the Middle East has the potential of creating an unnecessary conflagration. The US is attempting through the P5+1 initiative to reintegrate Iran into the world order clearly realizing that sanctions have had limited effect. Neither Israel nor Saudi Arabia is pleased with such a move. The dipping costs of solar energy & availability of shale gas reserves in the US shall ensure a reduced US & Western interest in the Middle East. The reduction of boots on the ground is only a first step. It is therefore imperative that the Arabs led by Saudi Arabia & the Persians led by Iran cast aside their differences & evolve a security architecture for the region. Else, the region risks of becoming the epicentre of global terror & eventually being reduced to cinders.