Geopolitics of Artificial Islands: China’s attempt to dominate the Seas

The rapid rise of China to a $ 10 trillion economy - the 2^nd largest in the world – is nothing short of spectacular.  If military budget is seen as a proxy of military might, China is the 2^nd largest military power too. It is only a matter of time before China emerges as the Numero Uno, in both the areas, leading to the prediction that the 21^st Century shall be a “Chinese Century” just as the 19^th Century was the British Century or the 20^th Century was the US century. Ideologists though would prefer the term “Asian Century” signalling that India is no pushover & shall fight for its place in the sun. With a $2 trillion economy – the 7^th largest in the world & the 3^rd as per Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) – they are, perhaps, not off the mark.

With a population of about 1.4 billion, China accounts for about 20% of humanity – the largest of any countries -  & therefore its rise is truly epochal & welcome; however its belligerence is not.  The Chinese' fail to appreciate that with “great power comes great responsibility” & their aggression in the South China Sea (SCS) does not instill comfort. While countries in the region were earlier disturbed by Chinese claims on islands like the Paracels & Spratlys, it has now evolved into paranoia post their attempt to create artificial Islands which shall serve as military posts.

Why the Conflict?

As per the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), 1982, every country has 12 nautical miles of territorial sea & a 200 nautical miles Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).  As per the US council on foreign relations report SCS accounts for 11 billion barrels of oil & 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.  $5.3 trillion of international trade passes through the SCS - 23% of which is of the US; therefore America too is concerned with the developments in the region.

Historical Claims on Spratlys

China claims exclusivity over almost the entire SCS, vide the “Nine dashed line” which is contested by the other countries in the region because of the above mentioned strategic & economic reasons. Spratlys are hundreds of tiny shoals, reefs and islets in the South China Sea claimed by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia & the Philippines. China claims historical “sovereignty” on these land masses for over 2000 years & had released a map in 1947 detailing its claims which are mirrored by Taiwan. Vietnam claims documentary proof of ruling over this territory since the 17^th century & asserts that China never laid claim over these islands before 1940’s. Philippines claims rest on geographic proximity while Malaysia on the principle of EEZ. Brunei has no claims on islands but Malaysia claims a small number of islands in the Spratlys

Conflicts over Paracels, Spratlys & Scarborough Shoal
China supports its territorial claims with military force to achieve strategic objectives. Chinese forces seized the Paracels from Vietnam in 1974 & the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines in 2012.  In July 2012 China consolidated gains by formally created Sansha city - an administrative body with headquarters in the Paracels – to oversee Chinese territory in the South China Sea. In 2014 Chinese naval and coastguard ships ventured into Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) to support the activities of an oil rig. Clearly the waters are getting muddy & bloody.

Why is China converting reefs into artificial Islands?

Chinese claim on the Spratly Islands has a strategic intent. While Chinese aircraft can patrol the East China Sea from bases in eastern China, it can’t do so in the South China Sea without refuelling and ground support; hence their decision to convert reefs into artificial islands.  China is the only power to have begun turning reefs, which are under water at high tide and therefore not considered land under international law, into permanent islands. As per US Defence Secretary, Ashton Carter, China has reclaimed over 2,000 acres - more than all other claimants combined, and more than in the entire history of the region - in only the last 18 months.

China has built an artificial island covering 75,000 square yards at a land formation called Hughes Reef, which lies about 210 miles from the Philippines and 660 miles from China; the geographical proximity to the Philippines is a giveaway. Similar structures have emerged in Johnson South Reef, Gaven Reefs & Fiery Cross Reef These outposts are self-sufficient for they contain windmills for power and greenhouses for food. As per The South China Morning 

Post report, constructing an artificial island with a five-square-kilometer military base on the Fiery Cross Reef would take 10 years & cost $5 billion, and would ultimately produce, the strategic value “equivalent to that for building an aircraft carrier”.James Hardy, Asia Pacific Editor of IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly says that “Where it (China) used to have a few small concrete platforms, it now has full islands with helipads, airstrips, harbors and facilities to support large numbers of troops, We can see that this is a methodical, well-planned campaign to create a chain of air and sea capable fortresses across the center of the Spratly Islands chain” 

An airstrip in the middle of the South China Sea shall serve as a base for reconnaissance aircraft and unmanned systems. The island shall shorten resupply routes for the Chinese Navy patrols & serves a submarine base. Just as China established an ADIZ (Air Defence Identification Zone) in the East China Sea, which overlapped with South Korea, Japan and Taiwan’s existing ones creating a backlash it would replicate the same strategy for the South China Sea. The Chinese appear to have become more aggressive after President Xi Jinping assumed charge in 2012.

The Reactions from the Neighbourhood

Philippines’ President Benigno Aquino has averred that use of reclaimed lands for military purposes would act as a “game changer” for future settlements of disputed territories. Incidentally, his mother & then President of Philippines, Corazon Aquino was responsible for the US vacating the Subic Bay – the largest US naval base outside of the United States – in 1992. Would China have behaved quite as aggressively had the US been present on Philippines soil is debateable. The Military co-operation between the two countries, however, continues.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries have tried to work out a solution under the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) – a non-binding agreement with China. While the interested parties - Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia & Brunei - would like the ASEAN to take a bold stand on the issue, the remaining 6 members do not want to antagonise China. The effected parties are seeking an internationally recognized settlement of the dispute under UNCLOS which China detests since it prefers a bilateral solution under which it can exercise disproportionate power.

Philippines’ has already filed a case with an international tribunal in The Hague challenging China’s territorial claims over most of the South China Sea China under UNCLOS. Vietnam and China have repeatedly clashed over Beijing placing an oil rig in disputed wars. India too is now embroiled in the controversy having picking up an oil block auctioned by Vietnam. The interested parties are better advised to settle outstanding disputes amongst themselves & project a joint front against China; the latter’s intransigence for a negotiated settlement would then be seen negatively by the world community. Else, the interested parties should internationalize the issue by involving the quad – US, India, Australia & Japan – which seems a more likely possibility.

Conclusion

The Chinese aim is to finally be the Lord of the South China Sea & control the crucial international shipping lines which pass through the region. Dominance over the air-space above is a natural corollary. The various outcrops claimed by China cover only 13 square kilometres in total, but are keys to controlling 2m square kilometres of sea and critical routes to the Pacific. It is therefore not surprising that a coalition of countries in the ASEAN along with the US & Japan are opposing the move.