Hat Tricky: Ab Ki Baar Coalition Sarkar

 

While Prime Minister Modi, set an ambitious slogan for the NDA of “Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar” with the BJP targeted to win 370 seats on its own, he has to remain content with a number of around 240, against 303 seats won in 2019. Aided by his pre-poll allies adding around 50 seats more, the NDA reaches a figure of around 292, higher than the milestone of 272 needed to form a government. BJP on its own won higher no of seats than the opposition INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) block at 234 with the Indian National Congress – its largest constituent – winning 99 seats – a resurgence, though, from the 52 seats that in won on 2019. The mandate for the BJP is thus clear is to form a coalition govt.

73year old Modi shall, thus, stake claim to power at the centre for the 3^rd time equalling the record of the first Indian Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. While he had set a figure of 75 years for retirement, in 2014, to edge away elderly statesmen within his party, the same rule may not apply to him. In fact, Home Minister, Amit Shah, has said that the BJP shall be led by Modi in the 2029 elections too.

The spirited fight by Akhilesh Yadav, with 37 seats, in UP & Mamta Banerjee, with 29 seats, in West Bengal changed the contours of the elections. The SP & TMC thus emerged as the 3^rd & 4^th largest parties. That the DMK would do well, in Tamil Nadu, against a fractured opposition was always on the cards & the results did not disappoint. On the other hand, the Central belt of India, from Gujarat in the West to Odisha in the East with states like MP & Chhattisgarh in between, blessed the BJP with nearly a clean sweep accounting for 84 of the 87 seats – 33% of its total no. of 240.

Intriguingly, nearly all pollsters got the exit poll nos. wrong, denting their credibility. The huge swing in the stock markets post the release of exit polls & the slump on 4^th June post the release of electoral results, trapping amateur retail investors in the bargain, shall keep the rumour mills churning.

BJP Strategy:

The figure of 370 was deliberately chosen as a “message” to enthuse the cadre “messenger’ & remind the electorate about the abrogation of Article 370 in J&K, to buttress the BJP’s National Security credentials. The consecration of the Ram Temple at Ayodhya, in Jan 2024, was specifically timed for the General Elections. Unfortunately, for the BJP, Balakot, in 2019, appears to have created a stronger impact on voting as compared to the 2 aforementioned issues that formed the bedrock of the BJP campaign. Mid-course correction & a pivot did not help either.

Modi, now, would have to lean on the clutches of at least 2 of his allies – the TDP with 16 seats & JD(U) with 12 seats. Both Chandra Babu Naidu of the TDP & Nitish Kumar of the JD (U) have a history of allying themselves with the opposition earlier & hence cannot be trusted to give unconditional support.  Both of them are experienced politicians, who had asked for “special Status” for AP & Bihar earlier & are capable of extracting their pound of flesh. “Special status”, though, is unlikely to be conceded as fiscal incentives to a particular state could make investments in the neighbouring ones unattractive. Now that the BJP has won Odisha, “special status” to either Bihar or AP would strictly be a “no go”. Ministerial berths & financial packages may be the barter on offer.

Leading a minority government, is a fresh experience for Modi, habituated as he always was in leading majority governments, for 12 years, as the Chief Minister of the state of Gujarat (2002-14) & 10 years as PM (since 2014). He will now be forced either to transform himself, into Atal Bihari Vajpayee avatar, to lead a coalition govt., or nudge the break up of some opposition parties, luring them via the crumbs of office or threatening them via the Damocles sword of the Govt. - agencies like the ED, CBI etc. It will be interesting to see which path he pursues, especially after the electoral reverses he suffered in Maharashtra, as a consequence of the salami slicing of the Shiv Sena & the NCP. Every leader is interested in leaving behind a favourable legacy & Modi, especially in his 3^rd term, would be more so.  

The Main Takeaways from the elections:

·         Without internal contradictions between the Central & State level leaders in UP – perhaps, related to succession planning in the post Modi era – clashes between Thakurs vs Rest of BJP support base within the State & the absence of RSS cadre on the ground, the BJP would have won 30 seats more in the state, helping it cross the 272figure mark on its own. The Double Engine Sarkar of charismatic leaders Modi & Yogi, supported by a well-received Ration scheme, lost out to the “constitution under threat” propaganda of the opposition – that appears to have attracted more Dalits into the fold who feared the loss of Reservation Benefits - & the badly received “Agniveer” scheme, that entails absorption of only 25% of the inductees, into the Armed Forces, after 4 years.  BJP President JP Nadda’s controversial statement that the BJP can do without the RSS, would continue to haunt them & a reconciliation could be attempted to prevent recurrence of a similar demoralising results.

·         That the BJP lost Faizabad - that houses the temple town of Ayodhya - despite the emotive Ram Temple issue – highlights the success of the new found caste calculus of the SP of fielding a Dalit leader in a non-reserved constituency. Similarly, the loss of Smriti Irani from Amethi to KL Sharma of the Congress.

·         The salami slicing of Maharashtra Parties – Shiv Sena & NCP – appears to be have been rejected by the electorate with Uddhav Thackery & Sharad Pawar faring better than Eknath Shinde & Ajit Pawar. Hopefully, this shall impose some moral rationality on the BJP going forward.

·         While the rise in voting percentage, in Jammu & Kashmir, from ~25%, since 1989, to > 50% is welcome, the election, from Baramulla, of Engineer Rashid – arrested under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention ) Act & lodged in Delhi’s  Tihar jail -  could raise challenges as do the victory from Khadoor Sahib, of Amritpal Singh – Head of the Pro Khalistan Waris Punjab De, locked up at Dibrugarh, Assam, under the National Security Act & Sarabjit Singh Khalsa, Beant Singh’s son from Faridkot (Reserved) constituency, Punjab. Beant Singh was the Sikh bodyguard who assassinated Indira Gandhi in 1984. An electoral victory may not hasten their release from prison though.

 

Expectation on Way Forward:

·         The Prime Minister’s victory speech emphasizing on the necessity of “attacking corruption” indicating the likely replication of Xi Jinping’s playbook, in China, to strengthen his position further.

·         The angst of the electorate in the Hindi heartland on the “Agniveer” scheme could force the govt to rework on the scheme although, in all honesty, it was a sane attempt at rationalizing Defence expenditure & reducing the average age of the frontline soldiers.

·         The 2.1 Lakh crores dividend from the RBI, higher by 1.25 Lakh crores (~0.4%) of GDP, announced has the potential to reduce the fiscal deficit from 5.6% to 5.2% close to the 5.1% announced in the interim budget. Hopefully, the govt. continues with its fiscal glide path & capex drive rather than be driven astray by the electoral results & allies demands.

 

Conclusion

It is to the credit of the Indian electorate that they have strengthened the hands of the opposition – a necessity for a vibrant Democracy. Eternal vigilance is the price of Democracy with an activist civil society, media & the Judiciary too acting as a watchdog.

At the same time, by restricting the Congress to 99 MPs & the INDIA alliance to 234, the electorate has expressed no confidence in them in leading the govt. By reducing the BJP to 240, albeit higher than the INDIA alliance’s 234, but less than the magic fig. of 272, the message, clearly, is a directive to run an inclusive govt. based on the principle of consensus. While an attempt to break the opposition ranks & parties to sail beyond the 272, is always an enticing, though morally reprehensible alternative, the saner preferable option would be to converge on a Common Minimum Program, revitalize the moribund Parliamentary Standing Committee System to arrive at consensus-based decision making. In the days ahead, it will be interesting to see how each of the Parties draws on these lessons & strategize their way forward.