The Revival Plan of The Congress Party

Not many political commentators have spoken about the “jut” or a pony tail - a Brahmanical symbol - that Rahul Gandhi has suddenly started sporting for the last few months. Is he alluding to his own Kashmiri Brahmin roots & thereby trying to dent the BJP base dominated by the Brahmin – Bania combine but is now led by OBC leaders like Narendra Modi much to the chagrin, perhaps, of the forward castes?

Juxtapose this with the Congress’ decision to have 3 forward caste members & 1 Muslim as its nominees for the 4 Ministerial positions allocated to them, in Bihar & the strategy becomes clearer. Rahul’s push for reserving 50% of the positions in the party to Dalits when combined with the above decisions indicates that the Congress think tank wants to arrive at a coalition of the subaltern Dalits with the forward castes to regain power. Rahul Gandhi’s dash to Hyderabad University post the suicide of Rohith Vemula & the protests in Delhi soon thereafter should be seen against this background.

The BSP is dominated by the Balmikis – the largest of the Dalit communities to which Mayawati belongs - while the BJP is trying to entice Pasis – the 2^nd largest of the Dalit communities; the Paswans have been the dominant Dalit force in Bihar. None of the Dalit leaders outside UP & Bihar have attempted to form a regional party & when attempted they were not succeessful; this offers a remarkable opening which the Congress seems to be trying to exploit especially when the BSP’s own influence outside UP is waning.

Rahul Gandhi’s penchant for reviving the party in UP & Bihar through a “lone furrow” - going alone strategy - has misfired while the coalition with anti-BJP forces in the Bihar assembly elections, in 2015, has been remarkably successful, giving an unprecedented electoral dividends of 27 seats of the 41 it contested; its previous best performance being 29 seats in 1995. Clearly, going forward, expect an electoral tie up with the DMK in TN & electoral understanding with the Left in Bengal for the 2016 assembly elections. While political commentators have been arguing that it shall be tricky for the Congress to ally with the Left in Bengal while being in a direct fight with them in Tripura & Kerala what is forgotten is that state level confrontations did not deter the Left from supporting the Congress during UPA 1 (2004-09). If keeping a "communal" BJP out of power was the logic then, then removing a "corrupt" TMC - plagued by the Sharada scam - & preventing the same "communal" BJP's revival in Bengal - nearly dead & dormant after Shyama Prasad Mukherjee's death in the 1950's -  can be the logic now which, incidentally, shall be palatable to the electorate too.

Congress shall also attempt to tie up with the BSP in UP for the 2017 assembly elections but do not be surprised if Mayawati rebukes them fearful as she is of her own Bahujan base getting eroded in the bargain. Electoral arithmetic indicates that a Congress-BSP tie up is a sure shot winner against the SP & the BJP whose revival post the 2014 Parliamentary elections in the largest state of the union is now part of the Amit Shah folk lore.

The BJP for long was considered to be a party restricted to the North & West with a significant presence in Karnataka in the south & attempting to grow in the NE - especially in Assam. The Congress was a Pan India party but has been losing presence gradually; it is decimated in the East & its support in TN has dwindled post the late 60’s with the growth of Dravidian parties & support for formation of the Telengana state killed the Party in AP. It is therefore only a matter of time before the areas of dominance for both the BJP & the Congress coincide. That makes coalitions mandatory for either entity to ride to power.

With the BJP’s coalition partners Shiv Sena, Telugu Desam & Akali Dal smarting under a dominant partner, the perception of a more nuanced & accommodative treatment of the allies by the Congress would offer them an opening with like-minded parties. Paradoxically, this was the strategy adopted by the BJP during the Vajpayee-Advani era when anti-Congressism was the dominant discourse.

What separates the Congress from the BJP today is the ideological cadre muscle provided by the RSS to the latter; organizational elections, decision making based on consensus & more democratic functioning have helped the emergence of state level leaders with strong political roots in the BJP which the high command culture of the Congress lacks. Working on these aspects is also critical to create a long term competitive advantage. Other strategies for revival are listed in my earlier article whose link is attached.

http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2014/12/congress-decimated-suggested-revival.html

Building a coalition of Dalit-Forward castes & agreements with like-minded allies is the sure shot route for Congress revival if coupled with organizational elections; however organizational elections are unlikely since the hegemony of the dynasty could then be challenged. That truly is disappointing.