Narendra Modi’s Foreign Policy: SAARC Diplomacy

Modi started his innings as PM, in May 2014, inviting the heads of government of all SAARC nations for his swearing in. He appears to be guided by Vajpayee’s advice to incoming foreign minister, Yashwant Sinha, in 2002, to focus on India’s neighbourhood, since India’s aspirations of being a world leader would be met only after the country emerges as a leader in the region. Let us evaluate Modi's "Neighbourhood First" policy & its impact on each of the SAARC countries.

Pakistan

Before the euphoria of the SAARC heads of state attending his swearing in could die down, Modi surprised the cognoscenti by cancelling secretary level talks with Pakistan on the flimsy ground of the Paki High Commissioner meeting the Hurriyat - a standard practice for quite some time. Perhaps, this was meant to send a “muscular message” to the constituency in J&K, especially Jammu & Leh to achieve “Mission 44” in the then impending state assembly elections. While he succeeded in getting an all time high of 25 seats – all however were from Jammu – for the BJP, he was forced into an uncomfortable tie up with the pro Hurriyat & Pro Pakistan PDP.  MK Narayan - the former NSA - in an article in the Hindu has argued that the BJP without assets in the valley - unlike the previous UPA regime - would find the situation difficult to handle. With Pakistan flexing its muscles & indicating that the onus was on India to restart the dialogue - since it was the latter who had called it off in the first place - placed Modi in a fix.  He has tried to wiggle out of the mess by pushing his foreign secretary, S Jaishankar, to engage Pakistan through an initiative that was masqueraded as a “SAARC trip”. Clearly, engaging Pakistan would not be easy. General VK Singh’s comments of “Duty” & “Disgust” - after attending the Pak National Day Celebrations at the High Commissioner’s office - makes the situation worse. Expect Nawaz Sharief, PM of Pak, to pique the situation further by raising the Kashmir bogey through jingoistic slogans to win his own battles against the Raheel Sharief, the army chief of Pakistan.

Bhutan

By making his first trip to Bhutan, Modi signalled yet again that the new dispensation accorded importance to India’s neighbourhood. Bhutan is the only one of the 14 neighbours of China with which the latter does not have full diplomatic relations – obviously under Indian “guidance” as per the 1949 agreement. That was sought to be reversed by the previous DPT regime in Bhutan & the UPA govt. responded with a strategic non extension of the Gas & Kerosene subsidy grant in July 2012 - just a few weeks before the last elections in Bhutan - which helped uninstall the govt. Modi’s visit helped build on the successful initiative, address the ruffled feathers & strengthen relations with the current pro India PDP govt.

Nepal

His first trip to Nepal - the last trip by an Indian PM was by 17 years ago by I K Gujral in 1997 - was remarkably successful since he singlehandedly succeeded in reversing the deteriorating relationship. His address to the Constituent assembly cum parliament, in Hindi, was also widely welcomed. However, his advice to evolve a constitution through consensus - & not through a majority – invited derision from the local press who lashed out against interference by “Big Brother India” in the internal affairs of Nepal.  Surely, Modi is richer by this experience & going forward might reduce his fetish for pushing for India’s strategic interests through public speeches & rely instead in the time tested practice of subtle diplomacy through one to one conversations. Modi’s visit to the Ramjanaki temple was also cancelled – as per local press reports - since 22 parties in Nepal protested such a visit, fearing that the Nepal’s transition to a “secular federal republic” – from a Hindu monarchy - achieved after much agitation, would be compromised.

Bangladesh

Modi has conveniently stayed away from visiting Bangladesh & allowed his deputy, Foreign Minister(FM), Sushma Swaraj, to do the honours. Incidentally, as FM, it was her first foreign visit to any country, proving yet again the new govt.’s interest in the neighbourhood. The beleaguered Awami League govt. – which won elections in 2014 against a boycott call by the opposition BNP – is our strongest supporter in the region.  The Awami League govt. has helped in checking the menace of the ULFA & as a gesture of goodwill the previous UPA govt. tried to conclude the Teesta water accord & the exchange of enclaves which unfortunately met with virulent opposition from the BJP. Modi is now, perhaps, waiting for a bipartisan consensus to emerge before he visits Bangladesh & makes the announcements in that country. Sashi Tharoor - under the cloud of the Sunanda Pushkar case – as head of the parliamentary committee on External Affairs has helped pass the agreement on enclaves. Mamata Banerjee, the CM of Bengal & the main opponent of the Teesta water accord – now under pressure due to the Sharada chit fund scam - seems more well-disposed to a Teesta accord. Expect, therefore, some agreements to be concluded this year. Meanwhile the judgement of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague under the dispute clause of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) awarding 19,467 sq km of the total 25,602 sq km sea area (76 per cent) to Bangladesh has been accepted by India, thereby enhancing goodwill 

Sri Lanka

Modi was perhaps sure of Rajapaksa’s victory in the recent Presidential elections & struck a personal chemistry with the latter. The latter’s pro-China tilt was obvious & as per Rajapaksa’s recent revelation Indian RAW along with the US CIA contributed to his defeat. The local station RAW head - who was working on bringing together the fissiparous opposition forces - for the last 2 years, was removed during the course of the Sri Lankan Elections in Jan 2015. The BJP had sent their IT head chief Arvind Gupta to help drive Rajapaksa’s social media strategy. Looking at the sequence of events it appears that removal of an anti-India force in the neighbourhood was a UPA success since the work stated more than 2 years back. 

Modi met Rajapaksa during his visit to Sri Lanka after he was defeated. Is he expecting Rajapaksa to win the parliamentary elections & become the Prime Minister & therefore keeping India’s options open? Are we seeing a Machiavellian PM who wants to keep both the parties guessing?  

Maldives

Modi cancelled his visit to the Maldives – originally planned as part of the 4 nation trip along with Sri Lanka, Mauritius & Seychelles - after failed efforts to mediate a negotiated settlement between the current President Yameen & the deposed & arrested past President Nasheed. Surely, Maldives would not have the gall to be intransigent towards India without an assurance of support from a large power, perhaps, China. Clearly, the NSA has work on his hands. 

SAARC Meet

In the SAARC head of Govt. meet held at Kathmandu in Nov 2014, Modi was besieged by demands from Pakistan, Sri Lanka & Nepal for including China in the association which he conveniently vetoed. However, this must have opened up his vision on the depletion of India’s influence in the region & that must have pushed him to be more amenable to the possibility of being ”US’s pivot to China in Asia”. Hence the joint strategic vision declaration with President Obama in Jan 2015 which specifically mentioned maintenance of international rule of law for maritime security in the south-China sea. It will however be interesting to see how India gets into the Sanghai Co-operation Council (SCC) while preventing China’s entry into the SAARC.

Conclusion

Modi has the challenge of enhancing India’s influence in the region currently under threat from China. Emergence of favourable governments in Bhutan & Sri Lanka, offers him leeway & India’s efforts to make the Awami League govt. in Bangladesh internationally acceptable or work on an Awami League-BNP entente should persist. While dealings with Pakistan would continue to be a tight rope walk & building on the past goodwill in Nepal would be a slow burn, a surgical intervention in Maldives, is an urgent necessary, to assert influence in the region & signal to the world. Would Modi try to achieve the targets through a more effective MOS handling the SAARC region, exclusively, or would the duo Ajit Doval & Jaishankar be handed the responsibility would be interesting to watch.