AAP: Can it fulfil the poll promises?

AAP’s thumping victory in the Delhi assembly elections held in Feb 2015 – where it won 67 of the 70 seats - is a stupendous achievement, since securing over 95% of the state assembly seats happens only but rarely; it was last achieved by the Sikkim Sangram Parishad way back in 1989 when it won all the 32 assemby seats in Sikkim. “Paanch Saal Kejriwal” has taken the oath of office on 14^th Feb – exactly one year after he left office - & predictably has tried to douse the euphoria of expectations build up during the run up to the elections by promising, perhaps, slower but surer action & singing the lullaby of communal amity. Valentine’s day, this time, had another message from Kejriwal: “Bhaichara” (Universal Brotherhood). Every manifesto has its measures of “Must do”, “Good to do” & “Try to do” promises & Kejriwal’s 70 point manifesto constructed after a very intense Delhi Dialogue with the citizens – a welcome citizen participation in policy formulation – is no less so. What shall Kejriwal attempt to achieve in short term, medium term & long term?

Try to Do 

Kejriwal promised full statehood for Delhi, passage of the Swaraj & Jan Lokpal bills as part of his manifesto. Article 239AA of the Constitution passed in 1991, precludes the government of Delhi from control on the subjects of land, police and public order. Delhi is, therefore, a unique state where the Police Department reports to the Home minister of the national govt., the Delhi Development Authority (DDA) - which owns the land bank - reports to the Union Urban development minister while the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) is an independent entity. As per Shailaja Chandra, ex-Chief Secretary of Delhi “There are 57 areas under the DDA and about 60 items under the MCD where the Delhi government cannot do anything at all without the Union government's assent. Even for a simple thing like increasing the fine for littering on the street, the MCD cannot change it and only the Central government can do so”  

The demand for “Full statehood” which found a place in all the BJP’s election manifestos till the 2013 assembly elections is glaringly absent in the 2015 vision document. Clearly, the BJP shall deny full statehood to Delhi & shall make every attempt to twist the rule book to its advantage.

Kejriwal’s Jan Lokpal bill – a product of the India against Corruption (IAC) agitation –is very different compared to the Lokpal bill passed by the 15^th Lok Sabha in 2014 & the BJP shall sincerely attempt to stall the former from becoming a law. The Swaraj bill has provisions of REFERENDUM - a vote by the electorate on a single political question referred to them for a direct decision - INITIATIVE– the process by which a pre-determined majority can sent a law deemed necessary to the elected representatives for legislation & “RIGHT TO RECALL” an elected representative if found unfit in the discharge of his duties. Referendum & Initiative, though welcome, if implemented nationally, could find immediate resonance in places like J&K & the NE imperilling the integrity of the nation. The “Right to recall”, another good initiative, is also liable to be misused by the current political dispensation where the winning candidate - in the first past the post system - gets only about 30% of the vote incentivizing the defeated majority to attempt a witch-hunt thereby creating a wobbly polity. Perhaps, such interventions can happen when we further mature as a democracy & succeed in dousing the fissiparous tendencies across the nation inculcated through “nationalism”.

The Swaraj bill, on the contrary, promises Citizen Local Area Development funds (C-LAD) to Mohalla Sabhas & Resident Welfare Associations (RWA) consistent with Gandhiji’s belief in local self govt.; since both the entities listed are not elected, it could invite repugnancy with the Municipal Corporation Act 1957. Expect, however, Kejriwal to pass all the 3 bills in the Delhi Assembly; If the centre accepts them he gains though fulfilment of promises & if the Central govt. blocks them he is handed over, on a platter, an electoral issue for the 2017 MCD elections. Kejriwal wins either way.

There is, however, a midway course if the centre & the state are keen to avoid a collision course. The second administrative reforms commission in 2005 has recommended that the Delhi CM be made the Chairman of the DDA - without effecting the central provisions - for greater harmonization. Likewise, the current situation where the Home Ministry controls the police forces, in Delhi, through the LG, could be reworked to have the CM conduct monitoring meetings with the Police Chief. Such changes are however unlikely to be implemented since both the parties would stick to their bargaining positions.

Must Do

Expect Kejriwal to implement the 50% electricity subsidy & push for the completion of the CAG audit which he initiated during his last stint. This however shall encounter opposition from corporates who have till date stalled any meaningful attempt at an audit. The anti-corruption helpline shall be active shortly & lifeline water commitment of 20k litres per family shall be implemented too; after all this was one of the pet themes that helped them regain power. Competition amongst the power distribution companies is a medium term strategy while plans to have own power plant at the pit head & achieving 20% of power generation through solar by 2025 are long term plans. 

Water as a right promised shall be an important piece of legislation since access to clean drinking water shall improve the health indices of Delhi, automatically. Charging for water from the first litre itself if the fig of 20k is breached shall penalize heavy users & perhaps accelerate conservation measures which needless to say are welcome. Karan Thapar, on Headlines Today, indicated that water shortage in Delhi is 24% while wastage is 40%. Clearly conservation coupled with reduction of leakages alone shall take care of the shortages. Promise of free water could encourage citizens to fix water meters & control on the water mafia by the govt. shall help reduce leakages substantially. Implementation of the Court ruling that Delhi is entitled to further raw water from Haryana from the Munak canal shall help provide water security to Delhi. Expect, however, resistance from the BJP govt. in Haryana & CM Khattar has already fired the first salvo.

Delhi has a budget of about 40k crores - 85% of which is taxes & 15% plan assistance; 67% of the taxes comes through VAT & Kejriwal has promised a reduction in the same which critics argue could deplete revenues. Reduction in VAT, though, shall lead to greater compliance & affect the “Laffer curve”- helping raise more resources. Reduction in VAT shall encourage “wholesaling” from Delhi enhancing trader turnovers & hopefully taxes. Reduction in IT raids – as promised by AAP - on traders shall accelerate the compliance process. Since Delhi is not a state and hence not allowed to go for market borrowings or levy a cess it might have to depend on the Central Governments mercy unless, hopefully, the 14^th Finance Commission recommends transferring a higher %  of the central’s tax corpus to the states against the current level of 32%. Moreover, with the Implementation of GST, perhaps, from April 2016, leakages would be plugged further giving a further fillip to revenue.

Against this background of precarious finances – where about 50% of the budget is non-plan expenditure - opening of 500 new schools & 20 colleges, providing additional employment to 17k new teachers in government schools, starting 900 additional primary health centres & 30k additional beds would no doubt be impossible to achieve in the short term. Kejriwal therefore has pleaded with the press & the voters to give him space to fulfil his commitments in 5 years. However the promise of regularization of contract workers including 4k doctors & 15k nurses & paramedics, filling up the 55k vacancies in Delhi Govt. shall put some pressure on the govt. budget. The Govt. needs to think out of the box to raise revenues. AAP’s manifesto promised conferring free-holding rights in resettlement colonies – for Rs 10k for original allottees & Rs 50k for non-original allottees - is a scheme that would earn as much goodwill as much as revenue.

Good to Do

Everything that does not come under the “Must Do” & “Try to Do” categories shall fall in the “Good to Do” category.

Conclusion

Kejriwal, therefore has a fight on his hands while implementing his manifesto. The voters shall be anxiously waiting for the unfolding of the action plans while the central govt. would be keen to muzzle his breathing space for they surely realize that a “Congress Mukt Bharat” would leave a vacuous space for the left of centre, AAP, to, quickly, occupy - that shall not be music to the ears of either the Congress or the BJP. Interesting times are definitely ahead.