Indian Foreign Policy: At the Cross Roads

China has responded to the Indian dare of allowing the Dalai Lama to Tawang by rechristening 6 towns – on April 14^th - in Arunachal Pradesh, perhaps, to de-legitimise the Indian claims on the same region – a policy they have followed earlier in the East & South China Sea.  Meanwhile in the summit meeting between President Trump & Xi, the latter surprisingly acquiesced with the US concerns on the whopping trade deficit of $350 billion by alluded to work on the same as part of a strategy to reduce inflation in their own country– a first during their bilateral talks till date; clearly, Trump appears to have stirred the Taiwan pot & challenged the “one China” policy for a brief interlude, only as a negotiating-bait & appears to be succeeding. The contrasting treatments meted out to India & China is an eye opener; while China has cleverly avoided being branded as a “currency manipulator” – a Trump election promise - India is at the receiving end of H1B visa curbs, likely pressures on IPR (Intellectual Property Rights) especially on pharma as well as Custom duties – 100% duty on Harley Davidson bikes being specially mentioned.  

The installation of the THAAD missile system in South Korea & deployment of a nuclear submarine to protect its ally against the North indicates that the US is unlikely to dump its allies & carve out geographies with China under a G2 format; however, demands for greater contributions – from NATO as well as countries like Japan, Korea etc. - for providing a security architecture would definitely follow; the “pivot to Asia” strategy might not have been dumped but relations with India would become more transactional or quid pro quo; India, therefore, needs to hedge its bets & perhaps the next stop of Arun Jaitley to Moscow (Apr 25-27^th) from Washington (Apr 21-23^rd) along with the PMs visit to Israel, in July, is part of the overall strategy of protecting her interests without leaning too much on any one international power. However the Russia- China - Pak axis might put pay to such plans. US-Russia working together would have provided us much more strategic space; the impending relationship appears to be at the crossroads, though, post the US Tomahawk missile attack on a Syrian airbase followed by additional sanctions as a reaction to a purported chemical attack on civilians.

While some elements of our nationalistic belligerent media would like us to believe that we are squelching Pak in the International forums & thumping her into a pariah status, the truth is that Pak has moved closer into a Chinese embrace & is gaining from the $46 billion CPEC(China Pak Economic corridor) lifeline; Russia too - a cold war enemy - has opened up to Pak as a counter to an Indian tilt towards the US & has conducted joint military exercises & is planning arms sales; clearly a Russia-Pak-China axis is emerging, burnished by an increased desire to squeeze India out of Afghanistan.  If the CPEC joins the OBOR, Pak would be the strategic partner for all land locked central Asian republics – burnished further by the Muslim brotherhood logic- & serve as a gateway to the Arabian Sea enhancing their geo-political status further. The solution is to rake up the demand on POK & Gilgit – Baltistan through which the CPEC passes; the consequence of such action is no talks with Pak & therefore a volatile valley; additionally, India needs to instigate the Balooch rebels & prevent the completion of the Gwadar port. Perhaps, India is working on both these strategies; the PM, unprecedentedly, has spoken from the ramparts of the Red fort on the Baloch issue while Kulbhushan Yadav too was purportedly arrested from Baloochistan.

Pak’s economy is 1/8^th the Indian one while India is 1/5^th the Chinese behemoth & it is reasonable to assume that the military spends are a function of economic strengths; spends however are no reflection of the numerical strengths; Indian military (13 lakhs) is about 50% China’s (23lakhs)just as  the Pak army (6.2Lakhs)is only 50% India’s; all the 3 players are nuclear powers & can wreck the other if faced with imminent annihilation; thus it is unlikely that China would replay 1962 despite India pulling out the  “Tibet card” to express irritation to the Chinese opposition to Indian membership of the NSG or preventing  Masood Azhar from being branded by the UN as international terrorist. However, since pestilence on two fronts – Western & northern – if not a war is a highly likely outcome a rapid roll out of Bharat Mala – the infra to match the Chinese on their side of the border should be accelerated.  Land & rail connectivity vide Bangladesh & activating more of the dormant air strips in the North east is an urgent need. A more broader engagement with the North eastern insurgents to maintain peace is critical.

For details see.http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2015/05/geopolitics-of-infrastructure-indias.html

India’s “neighbourhood first” policy seems to be in doldrums since relations with Nepal & Sri Lanka are deteriorating while those with Maldives shows no improvement. In the 1990’s India made a bid to cosy up with Iran & hence the Shia block with some success & Iran reciprocated by supporting the Indian stand in the OIC on Kashmir; attempts now to reach out to Saudi Arabia & UAE – the Sunni block – has led to the Shia side being miffed; no support on the Kulbhushan Yadav issue buttresses the assessment.  Since about 7 million Indians work in the Gulf – largely in Saudi (2.8Million) & UAE (2 million), Kuwait (0.75Million), Oman (0.7Million), Qatar (0.6 Million)  - & contributed about 60% of the 62 billion overall remittances last year, a GCC tilt is understandable; however this would mean that Iran too - which has a strategic depth in Afghanistan - would work towards evicting us from the region. Pursuing the Chabahar port development & spends on creating infra to link Afghanistan & Central Asia vide this port is therefore strategically illogical & hence should be dumped.

Ideally, a democratic India should have been logically a partner to western democracies post-independence; however, since Pak was the UK creation & because of the then Indian leadership’s own enchantment with socialism we moved closer to the USSR – a relationship that served us very well though. Brexit would ensure that even countries like UK support India more lured by a trade deal; however, the rise of right wing leaders in Europe, in the impending elections, is likely to unravel the EU & Indian diplomacy should rise up to the challenge.

With Europe on the boil, Africa & Latin America should be the continents that Indian diplomacy needs to concentrate hard on. The Chinese have made deep inroads here already & our resources do not permit a headlong attack; use of soft power – like the US - would be a better alternative. The US attracted the best students from across the world to its Universities & the goodwill thus generated helped when they returned to their home countries & rose to important positions in the local govt. India needs to pursue a similar path but if criminal attacks on African students continue & we refuse to acknowledge them as “racial attacks’ the African project would unravel leading to an insurmountable damage; the PM should persuasively speak about this issue at length in his “Man ki Baath” & follow it up with ground level strategy.  Tapping the NRI base in those countries should be the other strategy.

The international situation is fluid & calls for a long term strategic direction & tactical intervention which calls for a larger diplomatic corps which is work in progress; with Trump cocking a snook at the UN, we are likely to see the revival of bilateralism & a weakening of international institutions; in such a scenario a foreign secy. on a one year extension & a Foreign Minister who is not in the pink of health post the kidney transplant would not help.

In the light of an unpredictable US, a South Korea-Japan-Vietnam-Australia-India axis during the next 20 years would serve India well; beyond such a period we need to plan to stand on our own feet rather than lean on others. Rather others should be encouraged to lean on us.

Manipur & Goa Elections & After: The Lessons

The high voltage assembly elections to the 5 state assemblies of UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa & Manipur ended with emphatic victories for the BJP in UP & Uttarakhand & for the Congress in Punjab; Goa & Manipur gave fractured verdicts but with the Congress being the single largest party in each case touted it as a 3:2 victory. They were ingloriously pipped to the post by the BJP which in all likelihood would laugh away with an eventual 4:1 victory.

Lesson 1 for the Congress: Learn agility & not take any victory for granted.

The Congress argues that the precedent set by R Venkataraman in 1991 – of inviting the single largest party to form the government - should be followed. Such a position is repudiated by others who aver application of the same principle, in 1996, by Shankar Dayal Sharma, led to the BJP being voted out in 13 days. A pre poll coalition with a majority or a post poll coalition that could bestow stability should be invited, they argue. Incidentally, the latter principle was followed in J&K (2002), Jharkhand (2005) & Delhi (2013).

Chastised by the swift movements, the Congress approached the honourable Supreme Court with a prayer to put on hold the appointment & swearing in of Manohar Parrikar as Chief Minister, Goa; they also requested for a composite floor test to be ordered only to be rebuked by the SC for not approaching the Governor first nor submitting an affidavit of support by the non- Congress legislators as proof of enjoying majority support. The Court balanced out its judgement by pre-poning the floor test to Thu the 16^th of Mar.

Lesson 2 for the Congress: Selective application of precedents shall not help; a legal battle without diligent field work would be futile.

Constitutional Expert Subhash Kashyap argues that the governor instead of invoking article 164 should have applied article 175 instead; the end result would have been just the same but it would have been constitutionally more prudent.

Lesson 1 for the BJP: Hasty grab of power without paying attention to constitutional niceties would invite ridicule.

The BJPs actions, perhaps, could pass the legal test but fail the moral one.  Prabhakar Timple who resigned from the Presidentship of the Goa Forwards Party in protest against his party deciding to support the BJP govt. despite the mandate being against it was scathing in his criticism calling it in an interview to rediff the “BJP Political Mafia raj”; he also feels that post grabbing power the BJP would attempt to lure Congress legislators & thereby break the party.  He also feels that the Dhavalikar brothers -- Sudin and Dipak of the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party -- have always been with the party in power & they have been doing it since the last 20 years.

Lesson 2 for the BJP: Respect the peoples’ verdict

It could be argued that the BJP was in power in Goa & being reduced to 13 members in a 40 member house is a sign of voter non- confidence; a similar logic shall apply to the incumbent Congress which was reduced to 28 members in a 60 member house in Manipur. Perhaps, neither of the parties was keen to respect the mandates.  

Post the Bommai judgement in 1993, sanity, largely, was restored to polity with a decreased use of article 356 & a greater respect for mandates. The BJP’s action in Uttarakhand & Arunachal was a regression & the current actions would create further schisms in the polity.  It needs no soothsayer to predict that the Congress would reciprocate similarly if & when it rides back to power. Clearly, we are sowing the needs of a more rambunctious democracy & that surely is not music to ones ears. 

Budget 2017: The Reality

The FM presented the first Budget of Independent India where the Railway Budget was subsumed with the General budget; the segregation between Plan & Non - Plan expenditure has been dumped. It is a workmanlike budget without flourishes; no bad news is good news, sighed the market, relieved that a LTCG (Long Term Capital Gains) Tax has not been introduced & rewarded the FM with a rally.

The FM leaned on the IMF data that predicted the world economy to grow by 3.4% next year vs. 3.1% this year & India 7.2% next year & complimented himself for achieving an inflation rate of 3.5%, CAD of 0.3%, FDI of 1.45L crores in H1 (36% growth)& $361 billion reserves. He then proceeded to lower Fiscal deficit to 3.2% for next year & promised lowering debt to GDP ratio to 60% progressively to keep the rating agencies happy; lowering the borrowing target for next year to 3.48 lakh crores is a signal to the RBI to drop interest rates. In this tight rope walk, the Budget, however, has shrunk in size as a % of GDP next year as compared to this year, laying bare the promises of a “Modi Stimulus” blared on national TV from the last few days.

The FM quietly sneaked in listing of the PSUs in his budget speech without mentioning the divestment target of 72500 crores which would have invited accusations of selling family silver during the impending state elections. If he does achieve the same, it will be truly transformational. Abolishing FIPB, though welcome, does not mean that everything is under an automatic route as clarified by Economic Affairs Secy. Shaktikanta Das; sectors like Telecom, Defence etc. would still need approvals. That the rules governing FDI, would be released a few months hence indicates that the govt. still continues to make announcements before thinking through the fine-print.

Introduction of the “Thin Capitalization” rule means that company’s interest cost in excess of 30% of EBITDA cannot be tax deductible; this could induce better financial prudence from companies & help Govt. net a higher tax revenue too; highly geared companies would face an uphill task, though, in the short run.

The overall impact sector wise:

Industry

96% of these companies were rewarded with a reduction in the corporate tax (CT) rate from 30% to 25% which could spur investments & job creation. The MSME sector accounts for 45% of the GDP & 80% of the workforce; thus all MSMEs & more would benefit since the rule applies to all companies with a turnover of under 50Crores. CII which had demanded a CT to be dropped to 18% were miffed but the Govt. gains in shedding the tag of “Suit Boot Ki Sarkar”

3.96L crore capital expenditure, with a major 2.41 Lakh crore in the transport sector (Railways: 1.31L; Roads: 0.64L) though welcome, might not unleash the animal spirits of the economy.

Agriculture

The FM, incredulously, promised that agricultural growth would continue to grow by 4.1% without unveiling the plans. Plans to double farmer incomes in 5 years too are still unknown. About 50% of the population are dependent on agriculture although it accounts for only 14% of the GDP; this data point, though, is sufficient, to indicate that this is crying for investment.  Enhancement of farm loans to 10 Lakh crores, apart from the PMs announcement on 31^st Dec of a 60 day interest waiver were the only concessions. While a muted rise in MSP during the last few years has kept inflation in check, a strategy to achieve the BJP’s manifesto promise of a 50% increase in farmers’ incomes in 5 years is yet to be unveiled; advise to farmers to diversify incomes by adding animal husbandry, pesi-culture etc. are not helpful enough. E-NAM to connect mandis to ensure that farmers access a national market, though welcome, is a slow burn. The govt. has now recommended removal of perishables from the ambit of the APMC; states like Bihar have rightly abolished the APMC but that strategy alone has not helped agriculture become profitable. While Investments are an urgent need for this sector, the budget merely promises to circulate a contract farming model act to the states.

Against a budget of 38500 crores, for NREGA, the Govt spend 47500 crores in FY 2016-17, possibly to cushion the distress of demonetization, negating the PM’s stand against the ACT in Parliament earlier. A further increase this year to 48000 crore, with a promise for more, along with a shift towards asset creation, is welcome. The UBI (Universal Basic Income) thought triggered by the Economic Survey would cost about 5% of the GDP while the NREGA costs only 0.3%. NREGA has the advantage of self-selection too; UBI would be a dole transferred to the account of a poor man without any need to work while a poor man would have to work to get NREGA wages.  

Transferring, however, the 2.3L crore of subsidies - Food, Fuel & Fertilizers - through DBT (Direct Benefit Transfer) to the recipients, is welcome since it would be more directed & would also eliminate leakages. Subsidies account for about 1.7% of GDP & along with NREGA 2%.

Services

No specific measures to the service sector in the budget. An increase in the ST rate to 18% was not announced, perhaps paving the way for multiple service tax rates in the GST; the budget too expects a 11% increase in service tax revenues this year as against only 5% for excise.

The reduction in the lowest slab of IT (2.5 - 5 Lakhs) would be welcomed by the 1.95 crore people who file taxes in this bracket since it translates into Rs 12875/- gain. The FM announced that the reduction in tax would lead to an outgo of 15500 crores; 2700 crores, though, is recovered through a 10% surcharge on the salary bracket between 0.5 – 1 crore, translating into a minor stimulus of about 12800 crores which coupled with the OROP rises, 7^th Pay commission wages & the likely wage increases to be announced by the states could spur consumption.

The reforms in political funding mooted by the FM include Electoral Bonds & mandatory disclosures - of contributions received beyond Rs 2000/- against the current norm of Rs 20,000/- - is nothing but hogwash. Political funding smacks of quid pro quo & anonymity helps the culprits which calls for greater transparency. It is also true that ruling parties target the funders of their opposition who might therefore demand anonymity. The solution suggested by the FM neither supports anonymity nor transparency; banks that issue electoral bonds would have the data regarding the identity of the funder & the parties who have redeemed the bonds which if accessed by the govt. of the day would continue harassment. Lowering of the disclosure norm to Rs 2000/- would only increase the workload of the accountants who would now show 10 times the no. of funders.  Transparency in elections is a sine qua non & all political parties should be mandated to reveal every paisa received as funding; simultaneously, mandatory disclosure of expenses at the booth level by all political parties, monthly, regulated by the EC & open to a hawk eyed opposition shall bring a genuine transformation in our polity. 

Conclusion

To circumvent the twin balance sheet problem – banks loaded with NPAs & the private sector gasping for breath because of a debt overhand – a huge increase in public spending & an aggressive FDI invite were needed. The budget, unfortunately, fails to give a massive push to investment in a bid to retain fiscal prudence; a larger disinvestment target to fund investments while still retaining a fiscal deficit target of 3% would have been a better choice. Treat this budget, therefore as more of consumption & less of a massively Investment driven one; it is a political budget which pressed all the right buttons to influence the impending state elections. Only time will tell if the govt. has indeed achieved its economic & political objectives.

Budget 2017: Expectations

Despite protests by the opposition, the govt. has secured a Supreme Court approval & an Election Commission concurrence, with caveats though, to present the Budget on Feb 1^st. While preponement of the General Budget makes eminent sense, to ensure a quicker disbursal of funds to the states, presenting the same this year after Mar 8^th – after the conclusion of the assembly elections to the 5 states – would have been morally suasive to avoid any undue advantage to the incumbent, especially when the same is seen as a semi-final before the 2019 final.  That the govt. insisted & got its way indicates that some sops are in the offing to obliquely influence electoral outcomes, camouflaged as benefits for the entire populace.  Expect therefore a populist budget.

Subsuming the Railway Budget with the General Budget, though, is welcome for the Railways can now operate under the radar, away from populism, to rectify its distressing financials.

Five broad principles shall guide the Budget preparation

(1)Stimulus to the economy post Demonetization

India’s growth could shrink from 7.6% last year to 6.6% this year, as per median estimates, due to a tepid global economy & demonetization. An agile finance ministry would however ensure that the fiscal deficit would be maintained at 3.5% by playing around with the tax rates on petroleum.  While the commitment as per FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility & Budget Management) Act was to meet a fiscal deficit of 3% by FY18, it could in all likelihood be pegged between 3- 3.5% for next year, since Finance Minister (FM) Jaitley signalled such an outcome during the 2016 budget speech; he shall now be armed with such a recommendation from the NK Singh committee too.  This move is welcome especially when the private sector is reeling under the impact of low utilization & is in no position to enhance investments even with a corporate tax reduction or a dip in interest rates – another of their pet asks.

Expect an infra push in roads, railways & inland waterways. While ports too would be an ideal candidate, for investment, the opposition from the port unions for corporatization to raise money has tempered the govt. launch of port based China style mega Industrial cities one in AP & the other in Gujarat is however likely to spur manufacturing & job creation.

Analysts have been alluding to the Trump triumph & his commitment to reduce corporate tax (CT) rates to 15% to spur investment & hence job growth. A roadmap to reduce CT to 25% without exemptions has been announced by the FM earlier. In a bid to avoid the tag of “Suit Boot Ki Sarkar” to stick, the govt. would marginally reduce CT by 1-1.5% this year & announce a concession on the personal income tax front too; the later could drive consumption. Parity demands that the peak income tax rate be reduced to 25% with an option to pay either at 25% without exemptions or 30% with exemptions; the other two personal tax slabs, of 10% & 20%, likewise, can be dropped to 5% & 15% respectively. This shall be the most widely welcomed direct tax reform which shall have election traction too. Demands for enhancing standard deduction or slab amounts might not be accepted since only 1% Indians pay income tax & accepting either of those demands might reduce the fig. further.

(2)Incentivize cashless Transactions aka Digitalization

Experts opine that the informal economy in India is about the size of the formal economy.  Demonetization even with its flawed implementation & gaming of the system by interested parties has left some trail which could help in enhancing the size of the organized sector if cashless transactions are incentivised.

For individuals payments upto Rs 1000 vide plastic (Credit/Debit) attracts a transaction charge of 0.25% & upto 2000, 0.5%. Mohan Guruswamy opines that a Rs 100 note has a lifetime value of 1lakh courtesy 1000 transactions & costs Rs 1.8/- to print. However if the same is taken through a digital transaction at the lowest slab of 0.25%, it would mean the citizens expending Rs 25, much higher than the cost of 1.8/- for printing the note. Therefore, there is an economic story to drop the transaction cost to 0.01%. The govt. is better served implementing his recommendation instead of concentrating on capping the MDR (Merchant Discount Rate) on PSU banks only. Pushing for Aadhar based transactions apart from mobile payments is also necessary but by keeping costs nominal.

It must however be mentioned that despite 87% of Kenya’s GDP passing through MPesa in 2014, Kenya is 145 out of 176 countries on corruption perception index 2016 released by Transparency International indicating the digital transactions per se might not lead to a reduction in corruption. Therefore, while not recommending a police state it is necessary that the govt. uses big data to do the needful in a non- intrusive manner.

(3)Strengthen the Indian Defence Establishment in a troubled neighbourhood

India needs to be prepared for a war on two fronts – Pak & China. The Indian Defence Budget is at about $40 billion against Pak’s $8 Billion & China’s $150 billion. While India cannot match their combined spends, focus has to on outcomes than outlays especially when there is less of fiscal space; expect a further push to “Make in India” to resonate in the budget.

The governments’ strategy to spur nationalism by invoking the armed forces as a metaphor is commonplace & surgical strikes raised the crescendo.  They would be keen to ride such a wave again while entering the electoral fray.  However, unless matched with increased spends, this propaganda would be seen as mere rhetoric, which would be suicidal, especially when forces – including those from the paramilitary – are sharing viral videos of food, facilities or arms inadequacies.  The govt. could use an emotional sentiment to fund the forces as a route to sell family silver: the Public sector insurance companies & other un-revivable units would see disinvestments & an outright sale respectively; an overall budget target of about 1 lakh crores in disinvestments is not unlikely.

While Modi rightly hinted on Dec 25th that Capital market participants should contribute more through taxes for nation building, the FM quickly intervened to clarify that it was not a signal for introduction of Long Term Capital Gains Tax (LTCG). Likewise, a proposal for making foreign companies with more than 50% of their assets in India to pay indirect transfer taxes while exiting their investments has also been kept under cold storage with an intention not to spook the markets. Logically, the tenure of Short term Capital Gains (STCG) for listed securities should be equated to that for the unlisted ones which is currently at 2 years; however, to achieve a higher disinvestment target these proposals could be kept under abeyance. GAAR (General Anti Avoidance Rules) would however be effective from April 2017.

(4)Support for the Marginalized

The Rangarajan committee recommendation pegs Indian BPL figs at about 30% of the population.  While the traditional wisdom doled out to the populace is that the govt. has been supporting these marginalized sections through subsidies – Food (1.34L crore), Petroleum (0.27 lakh crores; 0.20 lakh crore on LPG & 0.07 lakh crores on Kerosene) & Fertilizers (0.70 Lakh crores) – accounting for about 2.3 L crores yearly, the same is not entirely true. Food stocks in the Food Corporation of India rot due to lack of storage spaces & has been diverted to liquor firms; mills make merry too.  Kerosene subsidy has contributed more towards adulteration of petrol & hence pollution rather than reach the intended recipients; transferring money through Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) for buying 2 solar lanterns & removal of kerosene subsidy makes eminent sense.  Fertilizer subsidy is transferred to the producers & black marketing of this farm input is rampant; neem coating to prevent its use in chemical industries has helped only marginally.

The govt. cannot announce rationalization of the Kerosene or Fertilizer subsidy before the elections, an announcement through an executive order after Mar 11^th is not unlikely, if the electoral results are favourable to the BJP.

Since the CEA (Chief Economic Advisor) has indicated that the new economic survey would contain a large section on Universal basic Income (UBI) it is reasonable to assume that the govt. would announce more DBT for the marginalized. Transferring Rs 500 per month to the bottom 30% of the population (about 40 crores) would entail an expenditure of 2.4L crores; replacing subsidies with the UBI makes economic sense for it shall mean targeted subsidy.  While 111 crore Indians have already enrolled for Aadhar, this announcement would spur the others too to embrace Aadhar quickly.

Interest subvention of upto 4% for low cost housing has already been announced by the PM on Dec 31^st 2016.

The salaried class would be incentivized through increase in Deductions allowed under Sec 80C from 1.5L to 2L; Infra bonds could make a comeback. Doubling the exemption on medical reimbursement from 15K to 30K would give much joy. Change in LTA regulations that currently mandate pay-out for only 2 travels in a block of 4 years should be changed to a yearly pay-out & should include expenses on food & lodging rather than travel expenses alone; excluding foreign travel, though, would make sense to spur domestic tourism.  Pension income could become tax free & income upto 4L left tax free to provide relief to senior citizens.

 (5)Attack Black Money

The govt. would announce its continued resolve to tackle black money. Indonesia had announced an amnesty scheme with a  tax rate of 2- 10% on black money & succeeded in eliciting massive declarations in assets, since the amnesty seekers  were cowed by the fear that they shall have no place to hide once the automatic exchange of information between countries rolls out in 2018.  While the tax rate is low it propels disclosure thereby creating a perpetual stream of income. A replication of the same avoids legal & diplomatic battles & is hence economically pragmatic although it could invite accusations from the opposition of being soft on the bourgeoisie.  While this would serve as one of the best bets to fund UBI, the Govt. would be wary of such a strategy.

Conclusion

In short it will be a political budget to soothe the frayed nerves of a section of the populace reeling under the onslaught of demonetization. While the usual noises on public investment & support for job creation through start-ups support would continue, only the informed are willing to vouch that job creation of 1.2 crores per annum is a mirage. Hopefully the FM will skilfully juxtapose the political with the economic & announce a budget that is truly “transformational”.

The rules for Success & Happiness

New Year is generally a time for introspection & resolutions; the latter many a times last but only for a few days, if lucky, while the unlucky ones enjoy only some fleeting moments of fame. You need not always wait for the onset of the new year to herald a good practice; did Kabir not say” Kal kare so aaj kar; Aaj kare so ab”?

In a Harvard study spread over 75 years, starting 1938, on 724 men, 80% started with the notion that wealth determines happiness while another 50% felt it was fame.. The conclusions of the study, based on a sequential yearly feedback on health, home life & work, not surprisingly, are different.
(1)Good close relationships keep us happier & healthier; stronger social connections - Family, Friends, Community - are good for ensuring that people are healthier & live longer.
(2)Loneliness is toxic. People who lead isolated lives experience health declines earlier during midlife, their brain function declines faster & they live shorter lives.Unfortunately 1 in every 5 Americans is lonely.
(3)You can be lonely in a marriage or a crowd; therefore, quality of relationships matter. High conflicts marriages are definitely worse off for health than a divorce. A person's happiness in a relationship at 50 determines health at 80.  Else emotional pain enhances physical pain.
(4)Great relationships not only protect bodies but also the brains. If you are in a secured relationship in your 80's, your memories stay sharper & longer. This does not mean the absence of bickerings but as long as the couple believe that they can count on the other when the going got tough, the arguments did not take a toll on their memories.

Given below are 6 sutras which could be attempted to achieve happiness which ultimately determines success; the sequencing is deliberate for research proves that happiness determines success & not the other way round. Donald Nielson once said "Success can be fleeting. Don't let it define you. Friends & Family become increasingly important as you grow older. Make sure you cultivate them when you are young. Happiness is the best measure of success"

Take care of health

Do people live at a house? They do but more importantly, they live in their bodies first. Paradoxically, while a clean, Vastu compliant, furnished villa is what everybody dreams off, a similar care is missing while taking care of ones’ body & soul. Unhappiness, disease & death are logical consequences; while mortality is an immutable law of nature, one can delay the inevitable with care. There is a link between health, happiness & success. Health is a consequence of a good sleep hygiene, eating good food & regular exercise.

Control your diet & exercise regularly. Reduce carbohydrate intake & go for a brisk walk for 30 minutes daily as a starting point to avoid an unhealthy lifestyle. A more rigorous one hour of daily exercises can commence later. Needless to say, do whatever is needed, even (an apple a day) to keep the doctors away.

Spend time with family

In this fast paced world, it is advisable that all members of a family should have at least the dinner together. Many of the double income families find that a lofty aim leading to complications later. The children feeling neglected could seek comfort elsewhere. Remember that ultimately that you are only as happy as your saddest child.

Not children alone, elderly parents too feel neglected. Today you have money but no time & hence parents who seek the latter feel abandoned. Spend time with them & answer their sometimes senile questions with the same warmth that they displayed while answering yours during your toddler years. Remember: it is more important to be kind than right while dealing with them; needless to say they deserve your respect & time too.

Replace screen time with people time

Technological advances have ensured that we are constantly exposed to at least one of the 4 screens in our lives: TV at home, Mobile while out of home, Laptop at offices & perhaps Cinema screens during weekends.  It is widely acknowledged that millennials are facing social issues; for all their brilliance in showcasing themselves on social media, they end up showing withdrawal symptoms while meeting up people in person.  The Tinder generation seeks instant gratification both personally & professionally.  This disease is spreading rapidly to non-millenials too with greater technological diffusion.

The high that people realize while being associated with liquor, cigarettes or sex is what people achieve in the proximity of screens today.  Making comparisons with friends or relatives on social media is pushing many into the depths of depression.  Remember that the lives of people are not as happy & great as reflected on social media & it is unwise to make comparisons & regress to the squalor of despair. Reduce your exposure to the 4 screens & meet up face to face with your friends instead. Your emotional quotient would see a steady rise & personal & professional success is a logical consequence.  Always remember that EQ (Emotional Quotient) is more important than IQ (Intelligence quotient); unfortunately, our education system focuses on the latter.

Avoid thinking on issues you cannot control

Hindu philosophy ordained: Karm kar; Phal Ki Aasha mat kar. Do your job to the best of your ability & leave the rest to destiny.  Another one: If you want something badly & you get it, good; if not, don’t get depressed for it portends that you are destined for something better. On initial scan these statements to an ambitious person look defeatist but experiences in life shall prove otherwise. 

It is foolish to break your head on issues you have no control on. Say, you bid for a contract after getting all the information available in the public domain. Blaming oneself after failing to secure the tender is a waste of mind resources if you have given your best shot. If the winner was helped by insider information, which you lacked, it is foolish to cry over spilt milk. If your ethics permit you to seek insider information, do so the next time; else, happily keep your values intact & move on. Needless to say, the latter is always preferable.

A student studies to the best of his ability & secures 80% in the board exam & sulks that his efforts have not borne fruit.  He needn’t traverse such a path if he has given his best shot. Either he appreciates that his standard is at 80% & lives happily ever after with that revelation or should start believing in the dictum “Life is 1% inspiration & 99% perspiration” & start putting in more effort to get to 90%. Either way it is time to move on.

You are the average of the people you surround yourself with

If you surround yourself with mediocre people you might exult with the experienced kick of being a one eyed king in the land of the blind. Many enjoy such adulation & regress downhill. Surround yourself with excellence instead, to enhance your standards.   It is probable that you capability is seen as low & some of the groups associated with excellence deny you entry. Try to befriend people better than you as a starting point & eventually walk up the ladder for excellence is not an exclusive domain which can prevent entry to the capable & persistent.  Some forces can only delay the inevitable.

Off course, always stay away from toxic people & if your judgement has deceived you, give up on them without delay.  Remember toxicity could rub off on you too.

Give back to society

India is a deeply religious society; isn’t it paradoxical that our relationship with our gods is transactional? We promise to drop offerings in the hundi in lieu of sins forgiven or boons granted.  While the latter is a matter of faith, the former seems atrocious. It would be preferable to lead an exemplary life & give back to society for none of us would carry the wealth accumulated during our lifetime. If you do not want to give away your wealth to charity unlike Warren Buffet or Bill Gates, you could promise to donate your organs, instead, when dead. Start small; spare some time for an NGO – in the health or education sector - as a starting point.

These 6 sutras, if followed diligently, surely, shall reduce the stress in your lives & that would act as a steroid to propel you to greater happiness & success.  Ultimately, leave the world a much better place than what you inherited. 

Heralding 2017

Hi Friends,

"Dil hai ki Manta Nahi" that 2016 has elapsed into history to be replaced by "Zabardast" 2017. Wish you all a very Happy & Prosperous New Year 2017 - free from the "Dangal" of demonetization & serpentine queues.

"PK" you feel like a "Rangeela" that reveals your "Andaz Apna Apna" ; hope, therefore, that prohibition is not launched across the country like it was done in Bihar last year. 'Dil Chahata Hai" that "Lagaan" (Read Personal Income tax) be reduced this year during the budget presentation by the Finance Minister rather then by the PM who constantly steals the former's thunder; he did it again last night. "Akele hum akele tum" we have become today; hope we become more tolerant to an "Argumentative Indian" this year. AAP has respected the "Parampara" of all political parties & removed the list of donors from their website; hope they find their "Pehla Nasha". It is time for the Congress to move away from "Yaadon Ki Baraat"; else it will turn to "Raakh".

Trump may dump climate change initiatives but you should fall in "Ishq" with the "Earth" & protect it. There is "Aatank Hi aatank" across the world" & people akin to "3 idiots" are getting elected. Hope the trend gets reversed. 

"Dil Chahata Hai" that your "Talash" to clear your "Mann" & find the real "you" is revealed this year. Finally, this is annual appraisal time - accept the dictum: "Jo Jeeta Wahi Sikander"; hope you get the "Awwal number" not "Luck by Chance" & win your "Baazi". Praying for a "Mela" of great increments this year. 

'Isi Ka Naam Zindagi" 

"Satyamev Jayate"

"Love, Love, Love"
Ram

Movie review: Dangal

Aamir Khan emerges from his 2 year hibernation post “PK” in “Dangal” a movie of the sports genre, magnificently mixed up with a cocktail of patriotism & gender sensitivity. The “intolerance” remark cost him dearly vide a right wing backlash some time back & he appears to have taken care this time to make all the right comments that include “goose bumps” he experienced while the national anthem was played in the movie.   Not sure if it is the right wing push or the Supreme Court ruling that made people stand up twice for the national anthem: once before the movie began & later during the movie when the protagonist Geeta  wins gold at the commonwealth games. Children insisting that their reluctant parents stand up for the anthem were needless to say, a positive change.

Mahavir Singh Phogat (Aamir Khan) a wrestler retires from the mat forced by circumstances: a family to feed & a truant father who admonishes him. Going about his chores along with his wife Daya Kaur (Sakshi Tanwar), he dreams of a son who shall bring laurels for the country - a gold medal for the nation – a hark back to the sentiment amongst all Indian parents who drive their children, perhaps recklessly, to fulfil the aspirations that they themselves failed to achieve.  Destiny, however, wills otherwise & Mahavir is blessed with 4 daughters. His dejection transforms to hope when his 2 elder daughters – Geeta (Fatima Sana Sheikh) & Babita (Sanya Malhotra) beat up the village boys for passing snide remarks at them.  “The blood of a wrestler flows in them” he concludes & starts training the girls in wrestling widely seen as a male sport in this country including parochial Haryana where the plot is based.

The Haryanvi lilt of the movie is enchanting & has been used extensively in movies like Matru Ki Bijli ka Mandola & Tanu Weds Manu returns in the last 5 years. Bhojpuri was used extensively in Ganga Jumna more than 5 decades back. People paid for tickets as they do so now alluding to the fact that as long as our political class stays away from dividing India on linguistic lines, Indians by nature are tolerant & language agnostic.

Coming back to the movie, despite opposition from the society that include  refusing to allow the girls to use  their akhadas, meagre financial means & his wife refusing to serve non- vegetarian fare - a prime protein requirement  for a wannabe wrestler, Mahavir fights all odds & emerges triumphant. The daughters themselves resent his strict regimen & hilariously invent excuses to avoid the pain of rigorous training which he circumvents through creative solutions; difficulty in running in pyjamas is addressed by offering them half pants & complaint of greasy hair as a consequence of fighting on the sand pits addressed by cutting their hair short.  Only when one of their friends reveals her pain at getting married off in her teens by her father while Mahavir was at least thinking about his daughters future do Geeta & Babita soften up & seriously take to training. Geeta confesses that the real “Hanikarak” Bapu was tougher than what was portrayed in the movie.

With his wards now trained in his farm backyard, Mahavir takes them to wrestling competitions - ‘Dangals” in rural parlance - to take on male counterparts, initially, only to be ridiculed by the organizers; views change when they see the economic potential of attracting larger crowds & hence greater ticket proceeds by showcasing the glamorous girls & not because of any altruistic aim of transforming society or out of genuine gender sensitivity. Incidentally, Haryana has an abysmal gender ratio & is also plagued by a high percentage of female infanticide.

The girls initially win laurels in the “Dangals’ & later in the nationals which takes Geeta to the NIS (National Institute of Sports) Patiala, Punjab.  Initially, Geeta responds positively to her coach’s attempts to force her to “Unlearn” & even takes on her father in the bargain in what is an intensely poignant scene.  However, when “aggression” - her forte - is replaced with tactical patience she starts losing international bouts. Her rapprochement with her father & how his guidance to change tactics after going through the match videos puts her on a victory path forms the remaining part of the movie. However this puts Mahavir in conflict with her coach Pramod Kadam (Girish Kulkarni). Yet, Geeta, finally, wins the Commonwealth gold, in 2010.

The movie seems to have taken some cinematic liberties deviating from reality. Mahavir in reality is a stoic man whom Aamir tries to play sensibly until the script forces him to regress into mild histrionics to tug at the heart strings of the audience. Sakshi Tanwar, caught in a rut between the demands of her husband & the pleas of her daughters plays a helpless mother to perfection. India, unfortunately, has many such mothers caught in this grind of a patriarchal world.  While Geeta won her final bout in the finals quite easily in 2010 as the score read 1-0, 7-0 unlike the score of 5-1, 4-6, 6-5 claimed in the movie & shown as a cliff-hanger of a contest – a nail biting  finish - that was only settled in the final seconds of the third round. Off course she had longer hair in the actual bout too unlike what was claimed in the movie.   It is also untrue that Geeta did not win any contests before 2010; infact, she had earlier won the gold medal at the Commonwealth Wrestling Championship in 2009, where she competed in the same 55kg freestyle wrestling category. The actual coach PR Sondhi has protested that he was unnecessarily shown in an unflattering light & that Mahavir was not locked up during the finals but was in fact in the crowd cheering his daughter.  In Mahavir Singh Phogat’s biography, ‘Akhada: The Authorized Biography of Mahavir Singh Phogat’, Saurabh Duggal confirms the coach’s assertion.

Aamir has confessed that the movie mixes fact with fiction while retaining the essence of the original story. Despite the deviations the movie is a dish to be savored for 2 reasons: Aamirs’s body transformations as part of “method acting” to fit the different age profiles of Mahavir , perhaps an ode to Robert De Niro in the 1980 Martin Scorsese film "Raging bull"; & a reminder to society to shun gender bias for a girl child can bring, perhaps, more laurels too. Hope the audience is listening.