Olympic disaster: What Ails Indian Sports?

The razzmatazz of the Olympics ended & a pall of regular gloom descended on the Indian shores with the same question on everyone’s lips: Why does a country of 1.25 Billion not produce Olympic Champions? The Chinese media has patronizingly attributed it to lack of infrastructure, poverty, caste & gender discrimination, undue focus on cricket, focus on academic excellence alone & lack of information regarding Olympics in rural areas; perhaps   they presume the absence of those very issues as reasons behind their stupendous success.   

That our men failed miserably & the Ladies - Sindhu & Sakshi - were the saving graces is a fitting rebuke to an intensely patriarchal society; the lasses had to overcome heavy odds clutching many a times on their parents support alone to reach the podium. While Sindhu travelled huge distances   daily to reach the Gopichand academy at 4 AM daily, the latter had to battle patriarchal diatribes in native Haryana against a woman picking up what was euphemistically referred to as a “Male sport”.  Not surprisingly the slogan rending the air now is “Beti Bachao; Beti Padhao, Beti Khelao”. If the “Power of 49” (a campaign run by TATA since women form 49% of Indian citizens) is truly unleashed we would have achieved a remarkable social, economic & political transformation.

India dominated the hockey field till the introduction of the astro- turf did it in. The performance in individual sports though has always been abysmal. After KD Jathav opened the account in 1952 at Helsinki with a bronze medal in wrestling, the nation had to wait for 44 years before Leander Paes won a Tennis bronze in the 1996 Atlanta Olympics. The individual medals won by Indians since independence: Helsinki 1952(1); Atlanta 1996(1); Sydney 2000(1); Athens 2004(1), Beijing 2008(3), London 2012(6) & Rio 2016(2). The breakup of the haul : Wrestling(5); Shooting(4); Badminton(2); Boxing(2); Tennis(1); Weightlifting(1).  There are 2 takeaways from these data points: Economic liberalization has done the country considerable good even in sports though not to the desired extent; & India should focus on 5 -6 sports where we seem to have a competitive advantage & increase the medal haul. The size of the Indian contingent increased from 56 in 2008, 83 in 2012 to 119 in 2016, despite high qualifying criteria, alludes to the positive fact that while we haven’t excelled to reach the podium yet, there is a surge in performance.

The vectors to be concentrated for putting up a better performance in 2020 at Tokyo follow.

Infrastructure:  The oft repeated complaint is the nutrition deficiency amongst our citizenry, lack of infrastructure & the small sports budget of 1592 crores for FY16-17.  While the truism behind such an assertion cannot be denied, it is pertinent to analyse why countries with lower per capita incomes have exceeded our performances. Jamaica (11),  Ethiopia (8) etc.  have won more medals this Olympics than India (2) & they don’t boast of excellent infrastructure either; lest critics argue that their performance is a one off, it must be emphasized that Jamaica has consistently produced excellent sprinters & Ethiopia marathoners.  Hence the conclusion that concentrating on some sports where we have a competitive advantage is a good idea.

India has done well in wrestling, boxing, shooting, lawn Tennis & badminton & there is no reason why we could not have won more medals in these categories. We have decent infra in these sports disciplines.

While infra similar to that in Western countries or a sports program similar to that in authoritarian & communist nations  is desired, it must  grudgingly be admitted that surely India has  better infra than the countries like Ethiopia or Jamaica.  That we fail consistently can, therefore, be attributed to only one fact: the culture where parents want their Children to become professionals (Engineer/ Doctor/ IAS officer/ MBA grad) & not necessarily a sports’ pro.  That all of us were glued to our seats when Sindhu was playing indicates that all Indians are necessarily patriotic – expecting Olympic golds - without taking the risk of pushing our progeny into the arena of competitive sports; unless that mentality changes, expecting superlative performances shall remain mere pipedreams.

With the Kabaddi, Football, Hockey, Badminton etc.  leagues’ attracting sponsors, a citizen who chooses to become a sports pro is assured of a decent career today – if she is at the top of the game - that rivals the top honchos of the corporate world. Therefore, there is no reason to prod children towards studies alone if they show an increased proclivity & proficiency in any game.

 The solution is to identify centres of excellence across the vast geography of India & spur excellence; that can be done not only through govt. initiatives but also thru a PPP (Public private partnerships) or private initiatives like the Olympic Gold Quest. Badminton at Hyderabad, Wrestling & Boxing at Haryana are cases in point. 

9 athletes from India qualified for walking, but only 6 could be sent because of the slots available; that 9 qualified alludes to the possibility of another sport where India can emerge as a power if plans are put into place.

Corruption: The Indian Olympic Association appears to be mired in corruption;  Kalmandi’s scalp post the CWG scam is an example.  The situation is no different in other truant associations; in 2012 the Indian Amateur Boxing Federation (IABF was suspended by the AIBA - the world boxing body on charges of manipulating elections. With no nationals conducted during the preceding 2 years, no new talent emerged in this sport despite Vijender’s medal victory in 2008 & Mary Kom’s win in 2012 giving a huge impetus to this sport.

Official Apathy: The attitudes & actions of Indian aficionadas succeed in bringing disrepute to the Country. The Indian sports Minister Vijay Goel was on a selfie  spree & was warned by the Olympic organizers of disaccredit ion for rushing into the games village with his unaccredited entourage. If that was not enough, injuries to the wrestlers revealed to our surprise that both the members of the medical team accompanying the contingent were radiologists & not sports’ doctors; one of them Pawandeep Singh earned the sobriquet of “Dr. Combiflam” for prescribing the same medicine for all problems.  Their presence at watering holes & not where they were required did not help matters. Dutee Chand has complained that while she travelled cramped for 36hrs in economy class effecting performance, the officials cruised in the business class. Jaisha’s complaint regarding lack of hydration facilities while she was running her marathon indicate official apathy for she was not informed of the rules by either the coach or the officials; the job of the wards is to just to concentrate on their event while coaches/ officials should brief them on the nitty gritties  of strategy & arrangements.

Doping Controversies: Leaving aside the debate whether Narsing Yadav was a victim or a villain, it made no sense to push NADA for clearing his name when it was evident that WADA would stop his advances; this illogical decision, which appears politically inclined, resulted in a 4 years ban; perhaps, he would have suffered a 2 year ban otherwise.  While the Russian doping fiasco & consequently a large no of their athletes being disallowed at Rio is well publicised, the deep rooted doping industry in India is kept under wraps. Indian players & coaches who were sent to the former Soviet Union learned the tricks which resulted in Indian players getting consistently disqualified since the 1986 Seoul Olympics. This needs a thorough investigation & revamp.

Maladministration: There is a discussion on politicians being banned from manning sports bodies with players running these institutions; these changes are likely to have popular support but are unlikely to get implemented.  Firstly, consensus on the same shall keep eluding since politicians across the political spectrum are united in their resolve not to leave their prized perches. It is also a fact that some politicians have done yeoman service to certain sports – Madhav Rao Scindia or NKP Salve for cricket although it is not an Olympic sport – simply for the love of that sport; on the contrary some players heading sports bodies have been un-inspirational.  Elections to the sports bodies makes the process essentially political, therefore, insisting on better governance practices & not necessarily eviction of the political class is a better solution.

Ego: India is a world power in tennis – in the doubles & mixed doubles category with Mahesh Bhupathi, Leander Paes & Sania Mirza winning many a Grand slam; paradoxically though they lose in the Olympics perhaps due to ego problems galore between the players. The AITF steps in to play a forced match maker adding to the controversy. Players being allowed to select their own partners would, perhaps, be a better choice

Conclusion

The story in 2020 would be no different from the one in 2016 unless preparations start now. It is incumbent on the govt., directly or through court directives to ensure that sports associations are disciplined. Implementation of the recommendations of the Lodha committee recommendations for the reforms of BCCI – through Cricket is not an Olympic sport – could start the “signalling”; reforms in the boxing association should come next with others to follow.

Sports bodies should appoint national coaches with a mandate to win gold in 2020; performance in the intervening commonwealth & Asian Games would form part of the obvious appraisal process. After all haven’t we seen Nobbs doing a brilliant job as the National Hockey coach?

With associations disciplined & national coaches appointed with clear mandates, work should start on strengthening the grassroots. Recognition to schools & colleges should move beyond the teacher: student ratio, library facilities etc. into sports infra; unless the revolution begins at schools, we cannot produce champions.  Looking at the fact that Sindhu has been gifted about 13 crores & Sakshi about 5 crores, parents should be convinced that their wards can make a career in sports too. Sadly, this change however, shall take a longer time.

Olympic glory is not beyond reach though. 

Paris, Nice Attacks & Nostradamus’ Predictions

The macabre attacks on Paris, in Nov 2015, was followed with an attack on Nice yesterday leading to the French President, Francois Hollande, extending the emergency provisions by 3 more months. Excluding the attacks in troubled areas like Syria, Afghanistan & Libya it is disconcerting to note that from Nov 2015 till date about 100 attacks have been staged across various locations – Bamako (Mali on 20^th Nov), Tunis (Tunisia on 24^th Nov), San Bernardino (US on Dec 2^nd), Istanbul (Turkey on Jan 12^th, Mar 19^th & June 28^th ), Jakarta (Indonesia on Jan 14^th ), Ouagadougou(Burkina Faso on Jan 15^th ) , Ankara (Turkey on Feb 17^th & on Mar 13^Th)  Mogadishu (Somalia on Feb 26^th & June 2nd), Grand Bassam resort (Ivory Coast on Mar 13^th ), Aktobe(Kazakhstan on June 5^th-10^th ), Mukalla (Yemen on May 15^th ), Pulse nightclub Orlando (US on June 12th) , Dhaka (Bangladesh on July 1st) et al. The spread of attacks is wide & the main perpetuator has been the ISIS with Al – Qaeda playing catch up to maintain relevance & the strategic responses from the sole superpower have left much to be desired. The US appears’ more keen on the removal of Assad as the Syrian President than the destruction of the ISIS; officially, though, they maintain that both should go. It is time they identify who the bigger enemy is & work decisively on its decimation; else the lure of the caliphate & its cause would attract the devout unleashing a vicious cycle difficult to contain.

Sunni Saudi Arabia & its Arabic GCC (Gulf co-operation council) allies want a Shia, Assad’s removal to blunt the influence of Shia Iran & have quietly acquiesced to the continuance of ISIS caliphate. Iran along with Russia wants to protect Assad - a cruel despot - & finish off the ISIS. Israel wants the current impasse to continue for peace in the Middle East would mean the withdrawal of the American forces imperiling its existence; it wants to finish off the Hezbollah in Lebanon & Hamas in Palestine - arraigned against the Israeli state - supported by Iran & this enmity with Iran makes it a strange bedfellow with Saudi Arabia.  Turkey has surreptitiously been allowing ISIS transit rights through its territory to sell oil helping the outfit earn about $1 billion in annual revenues; ISIS earns another $1 billion through kidnappings & taxes making it a dangerous outfit having a steady source of revenues unlike the outfits like the Al –Qaeda which relied largely on donations.  It is holding territory & appearing to follow the tactics employed by the LTTE in Sri-Lanka; coupled with vicious propaganda on social media- a weapon that LTTE lacked - helps in indoctrination & mobilization efforts & easily attracts converts to execute lone wolf attacks. Surely, unless the ISIS is finished financially, & the caliphate’s territory disintegrates, the spread of its ideology & the lure of the cause are unlikely to diminish. Was the disintegration of the USSR not achieved through propaganda on Voice on America apart from other channels which forced supporters to lose interest & confidence in the cause? Off course other covert means accelerated the process. A replication of the same strategy is an urgent need.

A coordinated attempt across the world to encourage Islamic moderates to reinterpret Islam Sunnah & Hadith & running a propaganda war to counter the diabolical one spread by ISIS on social media is an urgent need. Such initiatives should necessarily originate in the Islamic states for greater acceptance; else the strategy could be counter-productive for zealots rush in when they mistakenly perceive that “Islam is under seize”. Thus, without coordinated action, on multiple fronts, war against the ISIS is waiting to be lost. Perhaps, the predictions of the French soothsayer, Nostradamus regarding World War 3 (WW 3) are for real & he predicts that we shall lose many battles against the ISIS before winning the war eventually.

In Quatrain 30, the rise of the 3^rd anti - Christ – the first being Napoleon & the 2^nd Hitler – more tyrannical than Hannibal, in the Middle East, is predicted. Does it refer to Abu Bakr Al- Baghdadi the head of the Islamic caliphate?

Quatrain 43 predicts an attack on Paris & perhaps an attempt by the British to provide succour to the French. Chillingly it predicts that Paris for a long time shall remain uninhabited. Quatrain 19 & 80 talk about the attack on French coastal cities Ervins, Antibes & Nice vide a “shining metal” perhaps a reference to some new weapon of mass destruction. Or does it predict some nuclear weapon deployed post being stolen or willingly supplied by a rogue state? Unfortunately, Nice has happened & perhaps more are waiting to be unleashed. Use of germ warfare on the town of Agda is predicted in Quatrain 21.

Quatrain 97, of this treatise talks about attacks across 45^th parallel; incidentally some of the cities that lie across this latitude include New York & Rome. Is 9/11 going to be repeated? Quatrain 65 talks about the successful attack on Rome, perhaps to challenge the papal authority with the dire prediction that the Pope shall be forced to evacuate; attack on Rome shall extend for a week says Quatrain 41.

Quatrain 31 predicts a 3^rd World War on 3 fronts: Media, Arabia & Armenia. However post the initial successes by the tyrant, quatrain 16 predicts that armies from London, Brussels & Ghent shall launch a counterattack & be eventually successful, though Switzerland could become the sacrificial lamb. The resurrection of the Vatican is predicted in quatrain 74 while quatrain 97 predicts the final battle at Syria, Judea & Palestine which leads to 750 years of peace as per quatrain 89.

Surely the 750 years of unending peace is reassuring but the realization that we seem headed for WW3 is chilling.

Cabinet Expansion 2016: Understanding the Mind of Strategist Modi

The much touted cabinet expansion – with 19 new inductees - was announced recently increasing the size of the council of Ministers to a jumbo sized  78 against the constitutionally mandated limit of  82 & the first casualty was the slogan “Maximum Governance; Minimum Government”.  With the retention of Najma Heptullah & Kalraj Mishra in the cabinet, the second casualty was the decision enunciated in 2014 – when the NDA regained power - to kick up all leaders on attaining the age of 75 into superannuation;  Najma retains her position for being a loyal Muslim face of the party while Kalraj Mishra stays on for being a notable Brahmin face of UP where the impending elections necessitate the wooing of the Brahmin community who constitute a significant 13% of the state's population.

Many have criticized the current govt. for being low on talent forgetting that this was a consequence of their decision to renounce using of talent that they had; without the 75 age rule - meant largely to silent dissent -  Yashwant Sinha with stints in Finance & External Affairs could have handled either of those portfolios or the Commerce Ministries while Jaswant Singh – a former Colonel with administrative experience in, Defense, Foreign & Finance Ministries - perhaps post re-induction – would have made an excellent Defense Minister  helping  in tech transfers from abroad in the armed forces modernization drive. Arun Shourie as Finance Minister with his Disinvestment Ministry experience could have ensured that those targets are definitely met. Advani‘s exclusion was understandable considering the bad blood split but he would have added stature to the Home Ministry while Murli Manohar Joshi – a retired Professor at the Allahabad University - as HRD minister – a ministry he handled earlier - perhaps would have been less controversial.  

While those from the Margdarshak Mandal would have added depth to governance, a PMO led & a bureaucratic driven governance model makes Ministers irrelevant & that perhaps guided the PM’s thoughts then.  That still holds today.

Takeaways from the expansion

The list of newly appointed ministers of state includes three from poll-bound Uttar Pradesh, three each from Rajasthan and Gujarat, two from Maharashtra & one each from Uttarakhand and Assam.  Clearly no further expansions can be expected till 2017.

With allies smarting under what is seen as BJPs arrogance which led to desertions in states like TN, Modi is keen to keep the rest of the flock together & hence the induction of representatives from two allies—Anupriya Patel from Apna Dal in Uttar Pradesh and Ramdas Athawale from Republic Party of India. Anupria Patel – a Kurmi face – has been inducted to bring non Yadav OBCs into the party fold as also checkmate fellow Kurmi, Nitish Kumar in Purvanchal. Expect Nitish to woo the other faction of the Apna Dal headed by Anupriya's estranged mother Krishna.

Ramdas shall be used to lure Ambedkarites, a significant community at 32% & 20% respectively in poll bound Punjab & UP respectively.  Induction of Dalit leaders is an attempt to marginalize the BSP as also undo the damage caused by the Rohit Vemula controversy & the aggressive stances taken by Ministers like Irani who finally had to pay the price. The Dalit outreach - to make amends - shall continue. 

A seething Shiv Sena has been accommodated in the Maharashtra cabinet expansion – due to coalition compulsions - but not in Delhi. Its performance in the Mumbai Municipal elections would be an acid test that shall determine the future relationship between the two parties.

Amit Shah emerges the undisputed No 2. That he was seated next to the PM during the swearing in ceremony & all the prospective ministers were informed about their change in status by Shah buttresses this assessment; the later action is indeed perplexing for Modi does not savour a strong first line & did not offer Shah a cabinet role while in Gujarat. Clearly a defeat in the impending Punjab, UP, Uttarakhand elections would be palmed off on Shah who is seen as the architect of the reshuffle; a win shall strengthen his position further. Don’t be surprised if Shah is made CM of Gujarat just before the state elections for Anandiben is no Modi.  Ram Madhav who has shown the spunk during the J&K & Assam elections would get Shah’s role if the RSS has its way.

The axe did not fall on Mahesh Sharma, Niranian Jyoti, Sanjeev Baliyan et al indicating a silent acquiescence to their polarizing pronouncements & actions; Yogi Adityanath was not inducted as a balancing act -despite his importance in the impending UP elections – for that would have extinguished the possibility of plausible deniability.  VK Singh survives with the loss of the DONER Ministry to avoid hurting the feelings of the armed forces smarting as they already are on the OROP imbroglio.  As per Sidharth Varadarajan,  VK Singh wanted the name of Akbar road in Delhi to be changed but instead now has to share room space with another Akbar. MJ Akbar – a political gymnast – who shifted fortunes from the Congress to the BJP, is an erudite man though who could help in the diplomatic outreach efforts in the MENA (Middle East & North Africa).

The biggest gainer of the reshuffle is Prakash Javdekar who is the sole elevation to a cabinet portfolio from Environment to HRD; he is compensated for quick clearances of about 10lakh crores worth of projects & a decent handling of the Paris climate negotiations apart from his defense of the govt. in the media.  His replacement is someone who had an association with Narmada Bachao Andolan indicating the Modi now believes that a more balanced handling of environment concerns & investment needs are necessary to help him emerge as an international statesman.  Expect Javdekar to continue with the RSS agenda in HRD in a non- confrontationist way.

The Losers                  

The biggest loser of the current reshuffle was Arun Jaitley, a man who along with Amit Shah & Modi were seen as the Trimurthi leading the govt. His fall from grace coincided with what was seen as his abject lack of judgement on the Delhi results. He was given I&B & Finance – a very rare combination ever attempted – to have a carrot & stick policy towards the media which he has done reasonably well. But the FTII & CBFC fiascos did not help his cause.  The stern message to him is to put his head down to finance alone & deliver for the PM surely knows that despite the propaganda to the contrary the Indian growth rate is now being questioned by many including Ruchir Sharma & the US State Department; the inflation deflator being used to calculate GDP is perhaps the culprit.  The induction of Vijay Goal – a Jaitley baiter – compounds his problems. Piyush Goel – the outstanding power minister – did not get his much deserved elevation perhaps to placate Jaitley who would not like to see his protégé sharing space in Cabinet meetings.

Venkaiah Naidu’s shift to I&B was courtesy his reputation for rhyming sound bytes & strong defense of the govt. especially during the JNU crisis. He had reportedly expressed his desire to be shifted out of the Parliamentary affairs Ministry where his confrontationist posture was perpetuating the logjam giving him sleepless nights & his wish was granted. Anant Kumar takes this role with SS Ahluwalia as his deputy – the latter a prominent Sikh face to showcase during the  impending Punjab elections  as well as utilize his past connections with Congress leaders to break the legislative impasse.  The Parliamentary logjam however shall continue for the angst of the opposition is with what they see as an intransigent PM & not with the Ministers.

Smite Irani’s shift from Textbooks (Read HRD) to Textiles was shocking for she was seen as an articulate yet undiplomatic proponent of the RSS cause. This action is intended to send the signal that even loyalists cannot take their places for granted; they need to manage the brief without inviting adverse headlines. Detractors know anyway that Modi never forgives or forgets. Going forward, her shift to the UP heartland as a CM face is unlikely for she is neither a mass leader nor does she fit into the caste calculations of the State. Her shift – not to the organization but the textile ministry -  strengthens that assessment; her utility would be restricted to checkmate the Gandhis' & force them to concentrate on their pocket borough.   

The steady slide of Sadananda Gowda – the former CM of Karnataka – continues unabated.  He was initially placed in the Railways Ministry – a focus area of the govt. where he was seen as un- inspirational – shifted to Law – where he could not mitigate the troubles with the Judiciary - & has now been shifted to Statistics & Program implementation. While the spin doctors of the BJP would like us to believe that the Ministry’s importance is being upgraded, the reality is that this is clearly a demotion. Vokkaligas constitute the 2^nd largest community at 20% of the population in Karnataka & this lineage shall protect Gowda from being dropped from the Ministry in future too. Ravi Shankar Prasad regains Law to smoothen relations with the Judiciary including those on judicial appointments as also work on liberalization norms to allow the entry of foreign law firms through consultations with the Bar Council of India (BCI), the Society of Indian Law firms (SILF) et al. The PM could have felt that with Nripendra Mishra  - his Principal Secy. now - & the erstwhile TRAI head available at the PMO an experienced Minister heading Telecom is unnecessary. Prasad is also being sent a signal that he did not meet his brief on reducing call drops while at the Ministry.

Sinha faces the ire for having a voluble father – repeatedly critical of the PM – as well as his purported indiscretions – such as the introduction of his wife- a fund manager - to bankers. This is the sharpest signal to the patriarchs within the party that dynasts would be taken care off only if they silently walk into the sunset.

The Conclusion.

Clearly the expansion was a damp squib & the Congress tried to usurp the headlines on the same day through selective media leaks on Priyanka being the face of the party in the next UP elections; by the evening the reshuffle & its attendant surprises ensured that the narrative shifted to the govt. actions. Surely, the PM knows how to manage the headlines. 

The Augusta Westland Case: Some Unanswered Questions

The Augusta Westland deal worth about Rs 3500 crores, perhaps, was riddled with corruption despite the Congress' plea & spirited defense to the contrary. Supply of only 3 innocuous documents to the Italian courts - when requested for legal support to identify the recipients - & initiation of measures to blacklist the firm in May 2014 , a few days before the UPA relinquished office or the surprising loss of many of the deal documents in an unexplained fire do not inspire confidence. However, since only 3 of the 12 helicopters were actually delivered, it could mean that only 25% of the proposed bribe amounts might have actually been transferred to the middlemen & perhaps not the final recipients; that could explain the defiant stance of Congress leaders some of whom demand that the money trail be proved & yet others promise to exit public life if the same were indeed proved. 

However the BJP too has a lot to answer 

(1)When the case was lost in the trial court in Italy why did the Indian govt. headed by the BJP not appeal in a higher court? 

(2)Why did the CBI - the caged parrot - or the ED not accelerate proceedings into the matter despite the change in govt? 
(3)Despite being blacklisted in June 2014, the firm entered into a JV with the Tatas' later; logically can it not be inferred that without a green signal from the govt. - the only buyer of defense equipment - no private entity in India would dare enter into an agreement with a tainted firm?
(4)Why did the BJP not agree to be part of a JPC (Joint Parliamentary committee) probe earlier & is loathe to accept a Supreme Court monitored probe - demanded by the opposition now - despite insisting on the same for all other cases like 2G, CWG et al? Why these double standards? Is the face off with the SC (Supreme Court) on the NJAC (National Judicial Appointments Committee) bill the reason for this stance?

(5)Were the agencies asked to go slow by the BJP leadership as part of a deal? After all despite having the Vadra papers the BJP did not move an inch before 2014 when not in power & not after 2014 either when it is in power both in the states of Rajasthan and Haryana & the Centre. 

Readers should remember that the National Herald case - where the Gandhi family is in the doldrums - is the handiwork of one man Subramanyam Swamy & not the BJP. Hope this case does not meet the same fate as Bofors. The common man is fed up with political shenanigans. A time bound investigation to nail the culprits & not necessarily noisy debates on national TV to gain brownie points is the need of the hour.

Is Delhi Right In Reintroducing the Odd Even Scheme Now

The Delhi govt. has reintroduced the odd/ even formula for a 15 day period on April 15^th on popular demand they claim; Arvind Kejriwal – the Delhi CM – announced that as per a poll conducted, 81% of Delhi respondents wanted reintroduction of the scheme with 61% insisting on making it a permanent feature. Delhi has a population of about 2 crores (1.68 crores as per 2011 census) & 28 lakh cars (14%) & Kejriwal’s revelations, perhaps, indicate that non car users – the core support base of AAP - must have demanded such a scheme. It would be interesting to understand how many of the car owners polled wanted this scheme to be introduced especially when alternative public transport arrangements have not been strengthened.  One must, however, hasten to add that that while only 15% of the people travel by cars, they occupy 90% of road space; with 26% of Delhi being under roads – a decent figure – & 66 flyovers, de-clogging of roads is definitely a good measure to enhance vehicular velocity though not necessarily pollution.

 When this policy was run for a trial period between Jan 1-15^th this year, it earned plaudits from many international media houses including Fox news.  A critique of that trial is listed below.

http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2015/12/delhi-pollution-control-measures.html

Measures announced as part of the 13 point action plan in Jan such as the introduction of suction machines for road cleanliness & green cover on side-walks to prevent dust rise are yet to be fully implemented. With no / meagre  accretion to the Delhi Transport Corporation(DTC) bus fleet of 4461 - though 3000 busses were budgeted - & no addition to the battery operated vehicles/ e –rickshaws for last mile connectivity it is appears that reintroduction of the scheme during this summer is ill thought out.  While a subsidy of Rs 15000 per unit was paid for 3709 battery operated vehicles & e rickshaws last year & the amount doubled to Rs 30000/- this year, it would take some more time before many take advantage of this scheme. None would however counter the urgent need to combat pollution & create awareness for Delhi is one of the most polluted cities in the world.

PM2.5 micro-particles are classed as a Group 1 carcinogen by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and are responsible for lung & heart diseases. The official safe limit for PM2.5 particles - set by the WHO and the European Union - is 25 micrograms per cubic metre while the US mandates a far higher threshold of 12 micrograms per cubic metre. Air in Delhi is 30 times the US limit and more than 15 times the WHO safe limit

Sunita Narain of CSE (Centre for Science & Environment) contents that pollution was stagnant during the trial period as compared to the previous month but was lower than that of Jan 2015. Therefore, it would be reasonable to infer that had the scheme not been introduced, pollution in Delhi would have been worse.  Prof Dinesh Mohan of IIT Delhi has argued that PM 2.5 accounts for 30% of the pollution mix & 4 wheelers account for 20% of that number & a 50% reduction in 4 wheeler vehicular traffic vide the odd/even scheme translates to a theoretical reduction of PM 2.5 by 3% only; however, courtesy, exemptions & violations, 4 wheeler traffic actually reduced by 30% only & therefore PM 2.5 must have reduced by about 2% & hence “not substantial”.  Likewise, average vehicular speeds increased by a “marginal” 5% as per the same study although it varied throughout the day.  From the Research conducted by Ministry of Environmental Protection in China one can deduce that automobiles account for a higher percentage of pollutants when there is severe pollution, because other pollution sources are more stable. Therefore, limiting the no of vehicles on roads as an “emergency measure” is an effective intervention to reduce the number of days with extreme smog.  If made “permanent”, though, it would invite violations as it happened in Mexico City, Bogota et al, either through the fake no plate route – a joy to dubious traders – or addition of an alternate no plate vehicle by the prosperous effectively nullifying the objectives of the scheme. Implementing the odd/even scheme as part of a “basket of measures” is therefore recommended for greater effect.

Basket of Measures

Strengthening public transport is the urgent need. The success of the Delhi metro shows that once provided with a comfortable "value for money" option citizens are more than willing to make a shift from earlier practices. Launching the scheme during the hot summer - when pollution is lower as compared to winter - is therefore ill advised. Prudence demands implementation of the scheme only after the last mile connectivity issues are addressed to avoid civilian discomfiture.

The current scheme suffers from many deficiencies.  Running the scheme not for the entire day but only between 8 AM to 8 PM ensures only a change in traffic pattern without a commensurate reduction in pollution. Running it for a 24 hour period - without any exceptions - to VIPs, women or children going to schools- would ensure better results.  Delhi has 56 lakh two wheelers & 27 lakh four wheelers & not applying the odd/even scheme to the former is a sub optimal solution.  

Some cities have tried stricter models of not allowing vehicles into the CBD (Central Business district); walking, cycling & use of public transport are encouraged in that order & it resulted in small businesses in those areas doing remarkably well because of enhanced business from the increased pedestrian traffic. This too should be replicated in the NCR.

It is, however, disconcerting that there is no discussion on implementation of stricter norms of managing construction dust which is arguably the largest pollutant in the NCR.  Additional Solicitor General, Pinky Anand appearing for Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, in the National Green Tribunal (NGT) hearings, averred that most countries adopt fitness tests, including emission checks of vehicle as a criterion for curbing pollution and not the age of the vehicle. This assertion needs a wider debate to check if this is a better measure than a ban on vehicles over 15 years old.

Only when all the above basket of measures are combined with making an effort to make Delhi an “eco city” would the results be dramatic providing relief to the hoi polloi.

Making Delhi an “Eco City”

Delhi should plan to become an “eco city” -based on several criteria including “zero waste” – through recycle & reuse policy - & “zero carbon emissions” – by relying entirely on renewable energy. Individuals, corporates & governments should join hands to ensure that there is a massive shift towards walking, biking & public transportation, through “environmental education”. High urban density would be a likely consequence which would free up vast land tracks to be used for parks & urban agriculture. Unlike the current situation where agricultural goods are transported from the rural hinterland to the urban centres adding to the “carbon emissions’ this policy would promote more of local production & procurement promoting ecological preservation. If you add increased productivity in manufacturing it would automatically lead to a reduction in energy usage & promote greater sustainability.

Air pollution has been responsible for cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer & heart diseases. More of green cover helps absorb carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and sulphur dioxide as well as absorb airborne particulates and reduce heat, thereby promoting public health.

Delhi govt. should take advantage of the “solar mission” & offer, on tender, the rooftops of govt. buildings to private parties to establish solar panels & sell power to the Delhi govt. This should be supplemented with a model of allowing all consumers in Delhi to replicate the same with the incentive to generate an additional income by selling excess power so generated to the grid – a model successfully implemented in Germany. Asking the Delhi development authority (DDA) which comes under the National Govt. to release land for setting up additional solar parks should be also done & surplus power, if generated, should be shared with neighbouring states which shall then be amenable to persuasions on closing down their coal powered plants. This is critical since air pollution in Delhi is also caused by polluting industries in neighbouring states.

Govt. efforts would be futile if citizens lack responsibility & civic sense; therefore efforts should be made to make pollution reduction a mass movement & encourage behavioural change through mass media. 

Citizen contribution

Civic consciousness among the citizens has to be enhanced to encourage “Recycling & Reuse” of paper, plastic, glass bottles, cardboard, ink cartridges and aluminium cans etc. Segregation of household waste at home hopefully would reduce chances of a repeat of the Deonar dumping ground fire disaster at Mumbai. Segregated vegetable waste can be used to produce compost to be used for plants at home; planting deciduous trees around one’s house helps provide shade in summer & allow light in winter. Buying organic foods would over a period of time reduce the consumption of pesticides, fungicides, herbicides & artificial fertilizers. Likewise, reduction of energy consumption at home by switching off gadgets when not in use & using natural light often is recommended, for electricity is largely produced from thermal sources which contribute substantially to pollution. Buying energy efficient devices by closely following the “Star Rating” & shifting to solar is always a better option. Germany has proved that each home can generate additional electricity vide solar to he handed over to the grid generating an additional income too in the bargain.

Conclusion

Unlike solid waste, air pollution traverses across cities & hence is more complex to control. Some of the steps taken by Beijing include suspending schools, banning fireworks & outdoor barbecuing & introducing vehicles quotas to make vehicle acquisition difficult. Some of these have not been attempted in Delhi yet, perhaps, a consequence of a benevolent democracy.

Making the cost of acquisition of the 2^nd vehicle & beyond, disproportionately high, as attempted in certain countries needs to be immediately implemented. Penalizing the acquisition of diesel vehicles - the worst polluters – is needed; however govt. should have announced a roadmap on the same to avoid auto corporations from making additional investments on plants manufacturing diesel engine.  Preponing the implementation of Bharat VI norms to 2017 against 2019, however, would help. Encouraging “carpooling” shall reduce pollution as well as improve social contacts which have reduced in this fast paced world. AAP should tap the RWAs (Resident Welfare Associations) & it’s much feted Mohalla Sabhas to make this an unstoppable movement.

The Pangs of Prosperity

"Does anyone travel by a bus” an innocuous & innocent poser from a 7 year daughter of my prosperous friend set me thinking. Blessed with 3 cars & having never set foot on a bus, she was genuinely posing such a query not out of lofty self-aggrandizement but perhaps out of blissful ignorance to deprivations around. Children of successful Millennials’ - of the liberalized generation -  who have never seen “rationing” but only abundant “choices” grow up thinking that this is "Normal" ;for parents of such kids it is the “New Normal”. While as doting parents we pray that our kids remain blessed for life, a reality check is essential to induce greater awareness.

People of the previous generation, during their childhood, were much happier with smaller mercies. They either walked to school or used public transport for school busses had not made their flashy entry yet. Some corporates – including where my father worked - provided transport to the children of their employees to schools & that was seen as a genuine luxury & awe inspiring to others. Birthdays entailed sharing a toffee with each of the class students & a “Happy birthday to you” chorus generated great joy. Contrast that with the current trend of birthday bashes, return gifts & the difference is stark.  A school outing to a zoo or a park made the day then but only a foreign excursion does so today. Ignorance of realities - faced by the vast teeming millions of the Indian population today or of the experiences of the previous generation - are indeed the pangs of prosperity.

My father was an officer in a PSU & we had a charmed life. Off course by grandfather was a humble farmer who started out in a thatched hut. To ensure that biting realities are understood by his children my father took me through 3^rd class train journeys on some occasions. The sweaty surroundings, the unclean toilets & the lack of adequate breathing spaces were in stark contrast to the salubrious climes of 2^nd class or A/C that we usually travelled.  But the reality check of what a majority of Indians endure daily was immersed. Likewise, I never understood poverty & the concept of hunger until my father made me go without dinner & relinquished the same himself for the day as a sign of solidarity with a learning child. There are some who might call these measures harsh but I have definitely gained through such immersion programs & would suggest similar learning programs for other doting parents too. The pangs of poverty have to be experienced to create a more inclusive & understanding society.

The pangs of prosperity may seem oxymoronic to some but unless reality checks are introduced the current generation may not be in a position to tackle the pangs of poverty if such a situation unfortunately arises. Even if they remain well off they need to be appreciative of the pangs of poverty to be more inclusive.  India runs on domestic help & the abuse & their immediate termination on perceived inefficiency is in stark contrast to the demands of compensation when served with pink slips. Children should be educated to respect domestic help – maids, cooks, drivers’ et al. Off course it should start with parents first.

Asking for everything under the sun is child’s nature & as doting parents we succumb to such demands courtesy our own guilt feelings of not spending enough time with the child. We are more than willing to spend money but not time. Will this over a period of time lead to the decimation of the famed Indian family values?  The danger it appears is lurking near.

While spending time over money is essential, inculcating the concept of saving among kids is critical. Give them a rupee a day with the freedom to buy a toffee daily or save enough for a few days to indulge oneself with a Cadbury 5 star. Likewise teenagers could be given Rs 10 (say) daily to be used as pocket money that can be immediately consumed or saved to buy dresses of choice over a few months. A kid who has not spent any money for a year (say) is rewarded with 10% extra at the end of the year not only to make the concept of "interest" clearer but also to give them a nuanced understanding of the advantages of postponing current consumption. Going forward opening an account for a teenager in the bank would help. Learning on alternate consumption options & teaching simple ways to analyse the cost benefit analysis of such decisions could make kids more responsible.

Parents & teachers are perhaps in the best position to teach kids make rational choices, develop an inclusive mind-set & be appreciative of deprivations around. Options are many on how to make that possible. It is, therefore, left largely to parents to make enlightening interventions to make a kid’s transition through life easier.

How to usher in Ache Din

As per the World Bank any person thriving below $1.25 per day is declared as extremely poor & those less than $2 per day as poor. Various commissions in India have made a mockery of that recommendation; the Tendulkar committee fixed Rs 27 per day for rural & Rs 33 per day for urban to determine poverty thresholds which showed poverty in India at 22% of the population.   Post a furore, carried intensely by the national media the NITI Ayog recommended a fig of 40% while the Rangarajan committee suggested Rs 32/- for rural & Rs 47/- in urban as threshold determinants of poverty. People below poverty line (BPL) in India are 27 crores as per the Tendulkar committee & 37 crores as per the Rangarajan committee. It must however be remembered that the lower middle class that lives just above this threshold could sink back into the abyss during the times of an economic upheaval caused by either business cycles or the wrath of nature.

The World Millennium development goals, propounded in 1990, aimed at reducing poverty by 50% by 2015 but have been achieved 5 years earlier. In 2012, 89.6 crore people were living on less than $1.9 per day & a major chunk of those unfortunately live in South Asia & Sub Saharan Africa. Needless to say, India is the largest contributor with human development index figures poorer than even neighbouring Bangladesh. Therefore, the Indian govt. is better served by concentrating on the basic necessities – food, primary health & education, maintenance of law & order & finally quick & effective dispensation of justice.  For details read my article

http://meetrk.blogspot.in/2016/03/political-parties-in-india-havecoined.html

The other recommended steps

Provide safety net

Successive Indian governments have distinguished themselves with a blithe of misplaced priorities. The Telangana CM, KCR announced on the floor of the state assembly that during the last 20 years the no of houses build by the state govt. was higher than the no of households in Telangana – alluding to a deep seated builder politico nexus; surely the same miasma would be evident in all states. If the period from independence is considered the rot would be much higher. Would it not be a more prudent strategy to legalize unauthorized colonies & provide facilities of drinking water& electricity – thereby destroying the electricity & water mafia - & establishing police stations in such area - to control the rogue elements? The costs would be substantially less & the benefits to the society a lot higher for basic necessities along with security provide a wide & effective safety net.

Get out of loss making PSUs

Kingfisher airlines & Vijay Mallya were panned by the media for siphoning off 9000 crores from banks; if Kingfisher got funds from the banks, Air India gets funds directly from the govt.  & in each case it is the tax payers’ money blown down the drain. While Air India is a perpetual offender in terms of running perennially at a loss the ostensible reason cited by the govt. for extending support is protection of jobs of the employees; the real reason though is that the selfish motive of elected representatives to retain the perks associated with Air India. Extending the same logic, there is no reason whatsoever for the state running hotels or not closing loss making organizations. In fact non-closure of defunct state sector organizations denies the golden handshake amounts to employees who would otherwise benefit from a quick disbursal to be used to restart their careers elsewhere.  Liquidation of the land banks of such orgs can also solve the housing problem in the country.

Reduce agricultural intermediation & raise farm productivity & prices

While the political class claims to represent farmers, the farm gate prices for most commodities are about one third of what the final consumer pays. Both the consumers as well as the farmers would gain through the elimination of intermediaries. The obvious solution is removal of APMC ( Agricultural Prices Market Commission). Since it is largely held by political cohorts  & its abolition was indeed proposed by the Congress, before the 2014 elections, its own Chief Ministers did not follow through; the main opposition party BJP as well as other ruling parties in the states did nothing either indicating unanimity across the political divide.  Allowing of FDI in retail would help create infrastructure -including cold chains - which shall help in farmers getting better prices & the consumers lower ones.

The political class however raises the bogey of retail trade losing out in the eventually of FDI in retail being allowed.  India has about 13 million retail outlets & assuming a family size of 5 about 6.5 crore people are dependent on retail trade. Contrast this with about 62.5 crores (50% of the 125 crore population) dependent on farming who can potentially gain through better remuneration for their produce & all the 125 crores – including retailers  who need to buy products they don’t currently sell – shall gain through lower prices.

It is a fact, however, that retail outlets near a modern trade outlet get affected.  Such outlets could shift to a new area in the city. Displacement is painful & a solution of last resort. However, if displacement is a natural corollary for constructing irrigation, mining projects et al as per the compensation mandated under the recently proposed land acquisition act, surely similar rules should apply to displacement of effected retailers too. The dice of public policy is thus cast. Removal of APMC & creation of a truly free national market – which India currently is not - & allowing FDI in retail is the surest antidote to inflation.

Clean up the Real Estate sector to tackle the blithe of black money

With black money largely pouring into this sector a hawk eyed management of this sector rather than passage of black money laws in Parliament shall be more helpful. Raghuram Rajan has advocated that reality sector should drop prices to reduce inflation thereby helping the govt. drop interest rates further rather than arguing for interest rate drops alone.  The builder lobby along with their political masters – many of whom are interested parties & therefore keen to acquiesce - have succeeded in pushing through tax sops for the sector during the last 2 budgets though it is a sub optimal solution. Strong regulation of this sector shall stifle political funding & perhaps lead to better governance.

Professionalise PSU Banks

The public sector banking sector has piled up huge NPAs because of a politico – bureaucratic – promoter nexus helped by faulty project appraisals; else how can one explain how all the road projects got their traffic projections abysmally wrong.   P Chidambaram once noted that in India companies become bankrupt while promoters don’t. The lack of an effective law for liquidation & the long drawn labyrinthine of court proceedings helps many culprits to escape. Mandating a 3 year timeline from the trial court to the Supreme Court with a cap on adjournments & postponements shall help. It would also be prudent for the governments to bring in professional boards to man banks. Creation of a holding company – a la Singapore model - & acceleration of divestment & drop of govt. holding to 51% shall help. Going forward this holding company can start making acquisitions abroad.

Conclusion

Clearly, Indian governments – belonging to any political dispensation - are getting their priorities wrong.  It is time the economic & social thrust of govt. policy is revisited